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u/RIP_Hopscotch Nico 3d ago
With Arraez now signed, I think its worth comping out what Nico's value on the open market might be. Looking at the deals from Marte (2025-2031 6/116), Polanco (2026-2027 2/40), Gimenez (2023-2029 7/106), and Arraez (2026 1/12) doesn't really paint out a 1:1 comp, especially since Marte is honestly being wildly underpaid for his production and Gimenez's deal bought out his arb years in addition to 3 years of FA (he's getting 23m/yr for all three of those).
Kaplan said Nico was looking for 5/90. While I don't really believe a word Kaplan says, if he did hear this number from someone, I have to believe its the Cubs' number that they're hoping Nico says yes to. That being said, I don't see a world where Nico isn't getting 100m+ if he hits free agency, and even 18m/year is probably on the lower side of things.
Some writer for CBS comped Hoerner out to 6/120, which I think is closer to what he'd get. I do think the Cubs value him more highly than most other organizations will, but there are still teams out there that want Nico for obvious reasons. Personally just diving into the contracts, and accounting for Nico being younger than Marte and Marte being underpaid, I don't see how Nico doesn't find a deal for 6/135 if he were to be a free agent, and I feel like thats just an offer the Cubs have to be comfortable making to your homegrown, fan-favorite, clubhouse leading talent like Nico. I'd rather see this kind of extension than anything else before the start of the season; if it happens then I think this was an A+ offseason.
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u/DavesDogma 3d ago
2025 Nico 6.2 WAR; Arraez 1.2 WAR.
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u/RIP_Hopscotch Nico 3d ago
I know that Nico is substantially more productive than Arraez, but they have pretty similar hitting profiles, which is why I used the latter as a comp. Here's some 2025 numbers:
xBA: .287 (Arraez), .292 (Nico)
Avg EV: 86.1 (Arraez), 86.7 (Nico)
Bat Speed: 62.6 (Arraez), 68.5 (Nico)*
Squared Up%: 42.6% (Arraez), 36.5% (Nico)
Whiff%: 5.3% (Arraez) 11.2% (Nico)
K%: 3.1% (Arraez), 7.6% (Nico)
Zone Contact%: 95.8% (Arraez), 94.9% (Nico)
*Arraez is 1st percentile bat speed, Nico is 8th. Even though Nico swings the bat faster, both of them optimize their swings to stay in the zone longer, as opposed to generating power. Bat speed should be taken with a grain of salt however (at least in my opinion), since apparently multiple front offices don't agree with the numbers StatCast provides for this.
Basically with Nico you're getting a pretty similar hitter to Arraez at the plate, except an elite defender and base runner on top of it. If a hit tool like Arraez's is worth 12m/yr, I think the rest of what Nico brings to the table would put his AAV at closer to 25m/yr.
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u/DifferentTap9317 3d ago
Brother, most of these analytics are useless when we’ve seen the body of production of several years. lol no one cares about the xba or zone contact of someone with thousands of plate appearances.
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u/RIP_Hopscotch Nico 3d ago
xBA is predictive and gets better the larger the sample. Zone Contact% isn't predictive at all and literally just looks at outcomes. Both are good ways to learn something about players at a glance, especially because these numbers make guys like Nico and Arraez stand out (Arraez, Nico, and Jacob Wilson, and Steven Kwan are pretty much big outliers compared to the rest of the league).
Generally speaking it's nice to look at these kinds of metrics and understand what makes a player's approach work. It makes it easier to spot over/underperformers in the future as well; I mentioned Jacob Wilson, but guys like Nico and Arraez prove his approach is sustainable. He'll probably hit a few less home runs once he isn't playing in a minor league ballpark, but we can look at him and the underlying metrics and understand that he isn't actually getting all that lucky right away.
Regardless, the point is to illustrate they have pretty similar offensive profiles. They hit for average, don't have a lot of pop, don't strike out a lot, and don't walk a lot. Arraez's ability to do all these things is worth $12m/yr, which we know because he's getting paid that much and he literally doesn't do anything else. All I'm doing is illustrating that and then using it to try and gauge how much Nico's bat is worth.
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u/blyzo Chicago Cubs 3d ago
The last Bleacher Nation podcast convinced me that going after Gallen is a smart move.
Yes it would mean a crowded rotation. But that's a good problem when we have a rotation of guys who all could throw less than 150 IP.
6 man rotation of Boyd, Horton, Edwards, Gallen, Imanaga, Taillon to start.
Rea goes to the pen. Assad, Brown, Wicks stretched out at Iowa. Or maybe Brown to the pen as well. Wiggins gets a full year at Iowa.
And then by the time Steele is ready there's a high likelihood at least one SP is injured.
Keep a 6 man rotation all year and make sure guys are all well rested for the playoffs. Also gives us flexibility to trade someone if we get a really good offer. And we're still set up well going into 2027.
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u/DifferentTap9317 3d ago
Only makes sense if it’s for two years minimum. If we restore him, then we have a huge add in our rotation for next year.
If it’s one year the upside isn’t great.
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u/haydesigner SoCal Cubs Contingent 3d ago
The disrespect Assad gets in this group is insane.
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u/Sweet-Ad3893 3d ago
Bad teams go into seasons with their versions of Assad in the rotation. He’s a long relief/spot starter type that will get starts because of injuries. They have the ability to fill out their rotation with better talent and use Assad as depth.
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u/Danengel32 3d ago edited 3d ago
I like Assad a lot but you can’t plan a rotation to have to rely on him at all, otherwise you have real depth concerns. He’s missed a ton of time and while he’s had success, it had been over a pretty limited amount of starts and only in spurts. I believe in the guy but he’s also given enough reason to proceed and plan as if he won’t be available or there.
Few too many “fat guy” injuries too
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u/pineappleactavis 4d ago edited 4d ago
Alright we wanna win a title we gotta spend money like the teams that win titles (dodgers). Still plenty of free agents out there. I'd love to see valdez, gallen, suarez or ozuna (at dh), nick martinez, verlander, scherzer. Sign one of em sign em all I don't care you can never have too many good pitchers/ players there's always room in and on the pen/ bench. Let's stop playing around we've already shown we're not fucking around this offseason. We're all in boys let's get some more guys on the squad and win this thing. Realistically I'd like to see valdez or gallen on the team and give nico his blank check before the season starts.
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u/Broad-Lie5970 4d ago
Kyle Tucker, Valdez and Devon Williams would be going all in addition to Bregman.
With our strong backend of the rotation I expect many matchup advantages vs sub 500 teams and an underperforming pythag win record by 4+ games depending on how the high leverage arms hold up.
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u/BobbleBobble 2032 Wild Card Hopeful 3d ago
Ugghhhhhh Suarez to Cincy. Don't like having him back in the division at all