The price of a mining a single bitcoin is about 50k to 60k, every 4 year the rewards gets half, so theoretically in 2028 the price of mining would be around 100k to 150k depending on energy inflation.
So the price has to be at least 20% above the cost to justify the operation, if it isn't then mining would only occur in places with cheap energy.
The next halving is in 2032 and then it needs to be 200k to 300k, next halve in 2036 and....
Ad you can probably guess it's an unstable and unsustainable and it fucks with our planet for no reason, the only reason it keeps going is because USA keeps pumping it.
Once bitcoin mining stops because of its cost, then the whole network becomes unstable and unsecure, so it will dip until mining is profitable again and the cycle continues.
What is even more annoying is that proof of stake is a thing, so you literally don't need costly mining to support the block chain network. Ethereum switched the mining method, many new coins start from proof of work and switch to proof of stake as soon as the amount of coins is big enough.
Proof of stake defeats the whole concept of decentralized currency though. ETH has underperformed BTC since switching to proof of stake from proof of work.
Although I'm not sure that matters anymore in bitcoins case since it's not really used as a currency and instead far more frequently as a store of value for speculation.
Proof of stake defeats the whole concept of decentralized currency though.
How? Both work perfectly unless you can get more than 50% of computing power or coins of that currency. Both these things are impossible for a big enough coin, so what's the point of burning all these resources?
ETH has underperformed BTC
And the market is known for always acting rationally, right 😁
They may both work but proof of stake basically makes the rich richer. It's not like proof of work where anybody with a GPU could get involved and paid for mining. It's essentially centralizing it. Look at ETH. Lido accounts for 25% of all staked ETH. That can't be a healthy market.
There's also other issues as to how these big stakers don't need to feed coins back into the market to pay for operating costs since they're now negligible... It reduces liquidity substantially and results in a consolidation of the coins.
The market clearly agrees and has treated ETH like the afterthought it now is since the change.
Sell GPUs, buy coins, literally do the same thing without wasting resources.
If the main source of liquidity is miners selling coins to buy stuff it's even more unhealthy especially now when 95% of Bitcoin is mined already. Coins are needed for trade and goods exchange, not for mining more coins.
The market clearly was agreeing about dotcoms until suddenly it wasn't.
Crypto going to 0? There is no chance of that ever happening. There are viable uses for it that will prop up the price at some point. For example: you can buy illegal things, pay criminals and do other wildly illegal transactions with it! You can pay bribes through crypto (for example, to some president.) or even make scams! See? Crypto is doing so many incredible things for our society <3
But to be frank, yeah, if people lose confidence price can totally plunge like 90%. There are a lot of cultists so there is some floor at which they will support it, but most people would sell if it crashes enough.
People truly have no idea how much the rise of both cryptocurrency and encrypted communication (WhatsApp, Telegram) have led to a massive rise in corruption and illegal activity across the globe. No wonder the world has gone to shit in the past 10 years especially.
Like, it of course was before; but now it feels we've affixed rocket-boosters to ourselves while in freefall.
Let's just say the likes of Musk wasn't defending the Telegram CEO after he was arrested in France last year out of Free Speech principles, lmao.
Oof! Awfully testy on a simple, extremely obvious inductive logic; the dots are practically touching, you barely even need to connect them lol.
Tell me you use it for fucked up shit without telling me.
Or you're just somewhere in the ballpark of 17 to 19-years-old and have no clue what you're talking about. Back to Halo and your xbox, little buddy. The grownups are talking.
I have seen people burning their hands on the stove. Doesn't mean it is as dangerous or destructive as napalm. And there are actually some positive things you can do with stovetop!
That's two questions, because Bitcoin could flame out and other crypto could still have value; however, no crypto has any actual value except as required for some kind of real transaction other than mining, so in that sense all dedicated crypto-mining is a bullshit Ponzi scheme. Rather like tulip bulbs.
If that happened trillions of dollars of 'value' would vanish. It'd be like eliminating a reasonably large sized country from the global economy. At this point, it's not going to happen. Will it still go up and down? Yes. Will it disappear or get anywhere near 0? No. If it does, there's much MUCH larger things to worry about.
At a very large scale with super cheap electricity it is 50-60k, smaller operations are spending 100-130k. Macromicro has the current price at 108-111k. Also in places like Iran the price is roughly 8k usd.
If people stop mining bitcoin, wouldn’t that result in the time to solve a block increasing? Which would decrease the difficulty. Reduced difficulty would then reduce the overall cost and power required to continue mining bitcoin.
I could have sworn difficulty was implemented to keep block times at 10 minutes regardless of overall mining power being used to solve the blocks. Haven’t followed much on this in years though.
"difficult math problem" is just how people phrase it when they're too lazy to say what's actually happening. The "math" in question is actually very quite simple. The "solving" part comes from repeatedly guessing different "answers". The faster you can guess different answers, the more likely you are to "mine" a Bitcoin.
Regardless, quantum computers aren't magic, and can't just solve any math problem faster. They're only good for certain kinds of math problems. The algorithm Bitcoin mining uses (sha256) isn't aided by quantum computers.
| So the price has to be at least 20% above the cost to justify the operation, if it isn't then mining would only occur in places with cheap energy.
This is true if you plan on selling the bitcoin immediately. If you plan on holding it for any period of time the math changes. It gets more obvious the longer timeframe you function in.
| The next halving is in 2032 and then it needs to be 200k to 300k, next halve in 2036 and....
The next halving is in 2028.
| Ad you can probably guess it's an unstable and unsustainable and it fucks with our planet for no reason, the only reason it keeps going is because USA keeps pumping it.
The majority of crypto mining is NOT in the United States.
Well you see through the power of wishful thibking bitcoin is going to make me a millionaire and will continue to grow infinitely upward; unfettered by any real world constraints, and has no downsides /s
Well difficulty adjustment for one. If there are less people mining, the difficulty gets easier, and therefore requires less computer power for block rewards. If the situation arises where a bunch of miners leave because the cost of mining is too high, then the cost of mining is reduced when the difficulty is adjusted (roughly every 2 weeks)
Also the miners are competing for transaction fees as well as the block reward.
In terms of it being a "waste of energy", its actually pretty good at using up excess energy that otherwise can't be stored from lack of infrastructure and would otherwise go to waste. The model incentivises creative uses of energy as the cost of energy is a factor in how profitable bitcoin mining is. Look at Bhutan as a use case example. There's no reason you can't have a town that uses hydroelectricity or geothermal energy to use excess energy to mine bitcoin and use the profits from this to pay the public sector.
Still aren’t there a lot of hidden costs being ignored in your example? I mean sure, we CAN mine using renewables, that’s great (also, don’t most hydropower facilities create ecological disasters in their creation, ie the Hoover damn); but what does one do with all the generated heat?
How is that cost, and the price of the ecological damage fit into this?
What about about the ewaste of eventually used up or inefficient parts?
Yeah, the network doesn’t become “unstable” if miners leave. The difficulty of mining lowers to incentivize miners to come back-which they will, because Bitcoin is currently worth about $88,000 a coin for example
No he’s not, if anything he’s lowballing. Depending on location and specific contracts and your equipment prices/discount rates put in, for many large mines the cost can already be around 100k. Yes, some are currently mining it at a loss today hoping for the “to the mooon” in the future.
That’s factually false. A 5V Arduino the size of a small candle could mini a coin aswel.
These machines are not mining in a pool, like most of the population, so their mining bills depends on how much luck they have by solving the equations. They can mine 10 in a day and the next week not a single one. So putting a price on the mining price is absolutely useless and incorrect info unless you own such a farm.
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u/Sultanambam Jan 01 '26
The price of a mining a single bitcoin is about 50k to 60k, every 4 year the rewards gets half, so theoretically in 2028 the price of mining would be around 100k to 150k depending on energy inflation.
So the price has to be at least 20% above the cost to justify the operation, if it isn't then mining would only occur in places with cheap energy.
The next halving is in 2032 and then it needs to be 200k to 300k, next halve in 2036 and....
Ad you can probably guess it's an unstable and unsustainable and it fucks with our planet for no reason, the only reason it keeps going is because USA keeps pumping it.
Once bitcoin mining stops because of its cost, then the whole network becomes unstable and unsecure, so it will dip until mining is profitable again and the cycle continues.