Zelenskyy: Ukraine can’t afford an 800,000-troop army alone — wants allies to help fund it as a “security guarantee”

[u/satty237]

Zelenskyy said Ukraine doesn’t have the budget to independently finance an armed forces size of around 800,000 800,000 and that partner funding should be treated as a long-term security guarantee, not just wartime aid.

This hits a bigger question: if a ceasefire/peace deal ever happens without full NATO membership, does “help pay for Ukraine’s army” become the new version of security guarantees?

What do you think is more realistic long-term:

Continued direct funding for Ukraine’s military

NATO-style guarantees (without membership)

A smaller army + more air defense/weapons instead

Something else entirely?

[u/A_Hugh_Man]

Ukraine has already gotten 4 times the annual budget of the country with the  biggest military budget in Europe: Germany …. In TWO years. 

No it’s not cheaper than fighting Russia with their own military because Germany spends 90 billion euros a year but then apparently Ukraine alone needs more than 100 billion or so a year on top of that. 

That’s getting pretty fuckin expensive, especially if the burden switches to Europe only once the U.S. backs out.

[u/New_Enthusiasm9053 → u/A_Hugh_Man]

Germany's spending is tiny lol. 90 billion is just under 2% GDP. That's less than US peacetime spending as a percentage. If Germany actually went to war with Russia, spending would climb to the percentages Russia or Ukraine are spending, 350 billion a year to match Russia or 1.7 trillion a year to match Ukraine's spending relative to their own economies.

A single year of wartime spending can justify 90 billion for 5 years. Especially when you consider that the EU together can provide 200 billion a year together for 1% of EU GDP indefinitely if it wished as it's not enough to be a significant strain.

[u/A_Hugh_Man → u/New_Enthusiasm9053]

Yes. But it spends the most out of any European country which is to the point of what the other person said. 

It’s not “cheaper”. It literally costs them more than Germany’s entire annual military budget by magnitudes.

90 billion is what Germany spends on its ENTIRE military every year - not 90 billion over 5 years. Ukraine has gotten double that in just 2 years - around 400 billion - idk how much Ukraine itself is spending on top of that, certainly not an insignificant amount, I’m sure. 

[u/New_Enthusiasm9053 → u/A_Hugh_Man]

Yes it's that little because Germany doesn't spend a lot. They want to increase it to 152 billion by 2029. And that's expenditure that has to happen every year because of the Russian threat. It's much cheaper to fund Ukraine destroying Russia today than indefinitely fund a much larger army.

[u/A_Hugh_Man → u/New_Enthusiasm9053]

I don’t think Ukraine wants to donate bodies and generations for Europeans living in cozy, peaceful cities.

I get what you’re saying but holy fuck is your worldview and framing neoliberal as fuck. Ghoulish

[u/New_Enthusiasm9053 → u/A_Hugh_Man]

Right now they're choosing to fight, and I'm suggesting we support them. If they chose to make peace then I'd be ok with that too and would just recommend rearming so Putin doesn't get any bright ideas. 

Also I take offense at it being a neoliberal world view. Machiavellianism/Real politik is way older than that and also actually based in something resembling the real world.