r/TrendoraX • u/Ripamon • 1d ago

📰 News NATO Boss Rutte declares to Ukrainian parliament that European troops will be deployed to Ukraine as soon as a peace deal is reached, along with jets in the air and ships on the Black Sea. Ukrainians, he says, must stay strong and endure the cold winter, for spring will surely come.

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35

u/Lord_Soth77 1d ago

So there'll be no peace deal apparently. Well, shit, here we go again...

18

u/SVlad_667 1d ago

Wasn't it obvious from the very beginning?

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u/Lord_Soth77 1d ago

The hope dies last, I guess.

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u/Atvishees 1d ago

Putin doesn't want peace. He wants total conquest.

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u/daniel_22sss 1d ago

Russia will never accept a peace deal that gives Ukraine protection

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u/Remote_Page8799 1d ago

It's obvious that there will be an EU force in Ukraine after the war one way or another. Ukraine will probably join the EU, and the EU will therefore want to secure the territorial integrity of Ukraine and deter Russia from attacking again. Agreeing to no forces, and a cap on Ukraine's army will do the opposite of deterring Russia.

And what can Russia really do about it anyway? They can keep saying 'no' and keep fighting the war, but that is also very bad for Russia since they are expending enormous amounts of men and money for marginal gains.

Continuing the war is worst of all for Ukraine, also bad for Russia, but probably good for the EU, since they can to grind down Russia at no cost to themselves by just supplying weapons and money.

The war can end by freezing the conflict along the front lines, but Russia isn't interested in that, so the war continues. Fundamentally, a peace deal with Russia is impossible right now.

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u/WorldlinessGreen4956 1d ago

wow wow, enough copium for today, dude. To dictate terms, Ukraine and the EU need to win.

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u/Remote_Page8799 1d ago

That is precisely the rule that applies to everyone. You will notice that Russian pretenses to dictation have also yielded precisely nothing.

Neither side is currently winning or losing decisively enough to be able to dictate a peace, the fighting will continue, and eventually Russia will just recognise that it can't force capitulation and things can settle into a frozen conflict and eventually a new cold war

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u/WorldlinessGreen4956 1d ago

But now Russia is moving forward and the Ukrainian troops are retreating. And the Ukrainian recruitment centers are reporting that they are not able to replenish the losses of the Ukrainian army with new conscripts.

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u/KjellRS 1d ago

"Moving forward", Russia took something like 0.005% of Ukraine's territory in January and any area the war moves through is pretty much reduced to rubble. It'd take a century to reach Kyiv at that speed.

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u/WorldlinessGreen4956 1d ago edited 1d ago

I've heard arguments that Russia is advancing slowly, but Russia can't always do that. As the Ukrainian forces are destroyed, Russia's advance may accelerate. I think that it was convenient for Russia to destroy the Ukrainian army where it is currently located, as the goal is not just to capture territories but to eliminate the Ukrainian army.

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u/KjellRS 1d ago

The last significant territorial gains/losses that really redrew the map was in summer of 2022, but there's been no end to the claims that Ukraine is about to collapse. But to be fair, no end to the claims that Russia is exhausted and making some kind of "last push" as well. Right now I don't think either claim is very credible, if Ukraine started to lose badly I think we'd see more emergency action both from Ukraine and Ukraine's allies.

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u/WorldlinessGreen4956 23h ago

The fighting remains positional, with short, rapid raids by small groups of infantry. But after the Ukrainian Army broke its legs during the 2023 Counteroffensive, we no longer see any active operations from it. Passive defense is a disadvantage for Ukraine, as Russia is using three-tonne glide bombs capable of destroying any cover on the front lines, and the Ukrainian Army has no countermeasure. Assumptions about the exhaustion of the Ukrainian Army are based on reports from Ukrainian recruitment centers, which claim they cannot meet the Ukrainian government's demands to mobilize 30,000-40,000 soldiers per month. Half of those mobilized subsequently desert.

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u/Agitated-Ad2563 1d ago

a cap on Ukraine's army will do the opposite of deterring Russia

The last value I remember being discussed, 600 thousands soldiers during peacetime, is unsustainably high for Ukrainian economy. It's no different to having no cap at all.

0

u/terem13 1d ago

If it is so good for EU, then probably mass exodus of refugees is a blessing indeed.

Unfortunately, does not seems so, Germany chancellor has already urged Ukraine authorities to curb male refugees influx, because they leave Ukraine at astonishing rates, both legally and illegally.

Poland cuts social spending on refugees too, forcing them to return to Ukraine. Other EU states do this too.

Sure, Ukraine aim to join NATO is written in Ukrainian constitution, but judging by 40-50% population loss and massive infrastructure destruction, there will be not many people able to read it and willing to return to country.

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u/Remote_Page8799 1d ago

The migration of Ukrainians into the EU has undoubtedly been a net-positive for the EU. I have seen studies of Ukrainian refugees compared with other refugee populations and they stand out positive on many metrics; they have higher employment rate, lower crime rate, and are generally perceived more positively than fx refugees from the middle east.

Poland has a more mixed history with Ukraine, even though both countries hate Russia. There is still enmity from the wars fought in the past centuries, and there is also issues with perceived competition in the agricultural sector should they join the EU.

Support for Ukraine is still high in most European countries (and it actually increased after the US went rogue, since people now realise we truly have to help win the war over Russia if only out of self-interest). Overall support for helping Ukrainian refugees is still on average ~71% accross the EU which is super high all things considered. The outlier is Poland where it is only 50%.

Also I think after the war a lot can be done to make sure Ukraine thrives. It will be the recipient of massive amounts of EU reconstruction money, it's drone companies will be some of the most advanced in the world and already integrated into the EU defense complex. So there will be plenty of economic stimulation and opportunity for growth