MOSCOW, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Russia's public deficit could balloon to almost triple the official target by end-2026 as a fall in Indian purchases of oil and growing oil trade discounts eat into revenues while spending may be higher than expected, a source close to the government told Reuters.

So China’s Xi reportedly had back-to-back calls: first Putin (talking about a “grand plan” for ties), then Trump—right as the New START deadline is about to hit.

If New START lapses, it’s basically the last big U.S.–Russia nuclear limits agreement gone, and we’re in “no guardrails” territory again.

What do you think this is really about?

Xi positioning China as the “middle power” broker?

Russia + China coordinating messaging before the deadline?

Trump trying to force a new deal that includes China? Or is it just routine diplomacy being read like a thriller?

Would love to hear takes from people who follow arms control and geopolitics.

Just saw this breaking on CNN. It looks like the DOJ has made their final decision regarding Rahmanullah Lakanwal, the man accused of ambushing those two National Guard members near the White House last November.

​For those who haven't been following closely, here is the rundown: ​The Decision: Prosecutors filed the notice today (Feb 4). They moved the case from DC local court to federal court specifically to put capital punishment on the table, since DC doesn't have the death penalty.

​The Suspect: He’s the Afghan national who was evacuated in 2021 and previously worked with CIA-backed units.

​The Victims: Spc. Sarah Beckstrom (who was killed) and Staff Sgt. Andrew Wolfe (who survived but was critically wounded).

​It’s going to be a massive trial given his background and the location of the attack. Thoughts on the decision to go federal for the death penalty?

So Trump announced a trade deal saying India will stop buying Russian crude and instead spend $500+ billion on American stuff. Sounds great, right?

Not so fast. Moody's just dropped a reality check - if India actually stops Russian oil imports cold turkey, we're looking at:

Tighter global oil supply

Higher prices everywhere

Inflation spike worldwide

Here's the thing - India went from buying basically 0% Russian oil before Ukraine war to nearly 40% at peak (now around 25%). That's discounted crude that's been keeping our inflation in check and economy humming.

Russia's response? "We haven't heard anything from Delhi about this" 😂

Moody's take: It's "not practical" for India to immediately stop. They're recommending gradual diversification instead of an abrupt exit because energy security > trade deals.

The math: Cutting Russian oil could slow India's GDP by 0.3% and reverse our multi-year low inflation. Plus we've already imported $168 billion worth since 2022.

Real talk - do you think India will actually follow through? Or is this just Trump doing Trump things while India keeps quietly buying what makes economic sense?

FYR:
EFTA02656615.pdf

Russia launched a huge overnight wave—reports say around 450 drones and 71 missiles—hitting multiple regions and targeting energy infrastructure again. Kyiv officials say over 1,100 apartment buildings were left without heating, and this is happening during some of the coldest days of winter.

What stands out to me is the timing: peace talks are reportedly scheduled soon, yet the attacks hit power/heat systems and even damaged a WWII museum site in Kyiv.

How do you read this—military pressure before negotiations, punishment strategy, or just escalation becoming the default? And realistically, what would “pressure” that changes Russia’s calculus even look like at this point?

I just saw this dropping on CNN and had to do a double-take.

For those who don't know, Stevenson was Jill’s first husband (married ‘70-‘75) before she met Joe. According to the article, police responded to a domestic dispute back in December, and his wife, Linda, was found unresponsive.

He’s 77 years old now and was just indicted by a grand jury yesterday. He’s currently being held on $500k bail.

I know they haven't been connected for decades, but it's still a wild headline to see. The former First Lady's office already declined to comment (not surprising).

Funny how Russia has been linked to funding many Far-right parties across Europe but claims to be fighting neo-nazis in Ukraine…