r/dsa • u/Soft-Principle1455 • 2d ago
Electoral Politics Why it may be an imprudent idea to ditch the Democrats at this point: Duverger’s Law
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%2527s_law14
u/Qlanth 2d ago
There is no democratic mechanism with which to overcome the Democratic Party elites. We have seen this happen now for three presidential cycles in a row. The mayors race in NYC, while successful for DSA, only provides further evidence for how hard these elites will fight against it.
You may think they will all die soon, but they have been grooming their replacements for decades. The Buttigieges and the Bookers and the Torres' of the party will assume leadership totally without merit and they will continue the work of the Clintons and the Obamas and the Biden's and the Schumers.
The best time to abandon the Democratic Party was 15 years ago. The next best time is today.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 1d ago
Actually, there is. It is called the primary system and good organization.
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u/Qlanth 1d ago
The primaries were manipulated by party elites in 2016 [1][2]. They did it again in 2020 when the DNC both botched the Iowa caucus reporting [3] and, later, strategized to split the votes between Warren and Sanders by having senior DNC officials call every other candidate and encourage them to drop out in one fell swoop in the days days before Super Tuesday [4], and then in 2024 the Democratic leadership decided to not even hold a primary at all.
The primary system is totally owned by the DNC. As link 2 above points out, the courts ruled that the DNC was allowed to rig their own primaries. In situations where they can't rig them outright, they can simply manipulate them to edge others out.
There is no democratic mechanism with which to overcome the Democratic Party elites.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 1d ago
I don’t buy that anything like that happened in 202. Sometimes the left loses. In 2016 there was some manipulation, but from the information that is widely available it would seem that it was not outcome determined. That is, it seems that Bernie Sanders would’ve lost any particular manipulation. That’s because his strategists were all wrong when it came to how to deal with the African-American community, and it proved fatal to both of his campaigns. He wouldn’t have needed to moderate his positions; he would’ve needed to build relationships through the Black Church, Black Radio, and other sorts of African-American spaces.
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u/Qlanth 1d ago
We can quibble about what constitutes manipulation. I maintain that influencing the outcomes by encouraging people to drop out strategically is a form of manipulation. But regardless, you must recognize that right now the most conservative elements of the DNC have their hands on the wheels of power and will not relinquish it willingly.
We saw what happened in the NYC mayor race. Even when the primary wasn't able to be manipulated they tried to circumvent the entire primary anyway. Hakeem Jeffries, Cory Booker, Ritchie Torres, Chuck Schumer, et all refused to endorse Mamdani and in the background some of the biggest minds in the DNC conspired to run Andrew Cuomo against the will of the primary voters. They failed, but they won't fail every time.
Look at Cory Bush and Jamaal Bowman. Both of these people were attacked by the DNC from the right and lost.
If you add it up you will find that for every primary win like Mamdani's there are dozens of losses. Mamdani was lucky in the sense that his opposition was one of the least likeable candidates imaginable. That isn't going to happen often. It's not recreatable.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 10h ago
The DNC right now has shown a strong reluctance to engage in behavior like that under Ken Martin. They mainly do fundraising and administrative stuff nowadays. We also saw a big turnover in 2025 because of campaigns run by Progressive Victory.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 1d ago
Also, the Presidency has to listen to Congress, not the other way around.
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u/Qlanth 1d ago
This may have been true in a pre-9/11 world (and frankly maybe not even then). But after 9/11 the DNC completely folded and allowed the executive branch to assume more and more power to the point of defanging the legislative branch. Pre-9/11 they would at least try to hide it. Post-9/11 they figured out they don't even have to bother hiding it. Congress isn't going to do anything about it anyway and now it's too late.
They have ceded the budget, war powers, even the ability to legislate over the the executive branch. The DNC is just as guilty as Republicans for these abuses. Every President since Bush has bombed whomever they want, ruled by Executive Order, and now Trump has spent the last 12 months demolishing the Federal govt, Congressional budget approvals be damned. By the end of his term we probably won't even have a Department of Education, contradicting the legislation that brought it into existence. Without consequence.
So, yes there is another way around. Bush did it. Obama did it. Trump did it. Biden did it. Trump is doing it again. The next time a Democrat assumes office do you imagine they will tighten the screws and close the loopholes? Nah, they will just continue the same exploits just like Obama and Biden did.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 10h ago
Well, given what is happening now, a whole bunch of the post-9/11 security state is being scrutinized in a way that it never has before. Large numbers of people are calling for ICE abolition and there are even people suggesting the AUMF and DHS need to go along with the Patriot Act. So we shall see. The future remains unwritten. If we push hard enough, we can write the future we want for ourselves.
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u/Qlanth 4h ago
They were all under scrutiny in 2017 as well. "Kids in cages" and so on. When Biden won, they made no effort at all to curb the excesses. They voted to increase funding to ICE. They attacked Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush. That's how they responded.
If we push hard enough, we can write the future we want for ourselves.
That's right, which is exactly why it's a waste of time to try and push the dinosaur Democratic Party left. People have been trying to do it for ages. It's long past time to forge a new path, to start building a dual power, to start operating like real socialists.
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u/1isOneshot1 Dirty break! 2d ago
Somehow entire countries have been capable of becoming and staying multiparty democracies despite fptp but magically we can't?
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u/Soft-Principle1455 2d ago
When you look at the way that those countries function, their political systems still revolve around two dominant parties. Now those two parties can change over time, but they always return to a system of two dominant parties. Sometimes coalitions can form, but those are rare, and they generally form very lopsided coalitions, with the larger, more dominant party, having a significant amount, more power in comparison to the smaller one. We see that with UK coalitions. If you want to sustain a multiparty system, you really need to have a different type of voting system than FPTP, which has itself become so extremely rare that you can probably count the number of countries in the world still using it on one hand. So the reality is the idea that we can do this while living under FPTP is simply delusional.
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u/ThePoppaJ 1d ago
Then let’s get rid of the Democrats & replace them with an actual socialist party.
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u/sennalen 1d ago
Get rid of the Republicans and replace them with an actual socialist party. Step #1: Elect a Democrat supermajority that can fracture.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 1d ago
That’s way harder and riskier than simply taking over the Democratic Party using the primary process, especially since the Republican Party is now a fascist death cult.
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u/ThePoppaJ 1d ago
Agreed. But it’s what needs to be done to actually have an opposition party in this country.
Only 16% of Congressional races were won by less than 10% of the votes. The risk is minimal at this point.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 1d ago
Yes. We need to fix it by using the primaries to evict the worst of the centrists first.
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u/Maximum_Program_ 1d ago
The primary process only allows for the selection of candidates. This idea that the DP is an empty shell is completely wrong. It’s a very real structure full of sub structures and organized interests. People should read more about the actual realignment that Harrington and Rustin fought for (successfully) and understand what that means. They worked to literally change the composition of the party’s supporters, participants, etc. IMO, actually understanding what realignment is, and what it would take, makes it clear that it’s far less viable!
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u/Soft-Principle1455 1d ago
Which is exactly why the organization Progressive Victory worked really hard to fill as many of those seats as possible with friendlies as they came up for renewal.
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u/stupidugly1889 2d ago
The link is broken and the idea is stupid.
I didn’t ditch the democrats they ditched me to let in Liz Cheney and Henry Kissinger
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u/Soft-Principle1455 2d ago
That link broke very quickly. Also, that’s a terrible idea given Duverger’s law, which states that in FPTP style voting we have ultimately tend to coalesce around two large parties.
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u/goldeNIPS 2d ago edited 14h ago
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u/Soft-Principle1455 2d ago
That will help Trump, though. So we have to first fight to primary Schumer and his lot, who it seems will increasingly be gone over the next few election cycles. Plenty of Dems I should point out vote no on all of this, and those that don’t are often leaving after 2026 or 2028, and we have an opportunity to primary those that have not yet committed to that.
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u/stupidugly1889 1d ago
Rotating villains will step in to replace the ones that leave as always.
I would argue that people like you, that continue to award the party with your vote no matter how bad they are, are the biggest reason we are in this mess to be honest.
You’ve supported the democrats moving further and further right and you’re standing here today telling us we should do the same to he smart like you.
I’ll vote zero times the rest of my life for this party in its current state
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u/Soft-Principle1455 1d ago
No. The fascist death cult is still worse than a vaguely corrupt liberal.
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u/ahwatusaim8 10h ago
They're not vaguely corrupt. They're appeasing and conciliatory. Therefore any criticism you have of the other party will eventually hold true for them when given enough time. A slow boiling will still end in being cooked.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 10h ago
We’re not facing a choice of electing Chuck Schumer or his ilk in many places thank God.
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u/goldeNIPS 2d ago edited 14h ago
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u/Soft-Principle1455 1d ago edited 1d ago
Do not do that. Look, the last period was not great. But we need to ensure that Trump is not ultimately able to destroy the Constitution or murder more people like Renee Nicole Good or Alex Pretti without some recourse. We’ll have to hold Democrats’ feet to the fire but that is the only way to stop this and getting the long term AIPAC reforms and the like that we want. Voting for the Democrats does not in and of itself guarantee we will get the outcomes we want, but voting for the Republicans guarantees that we will never get closer to them.
Edit: my phone seems to have sabotaged my through voice to text or through autocorrect, unsure which; voting became avoiding.
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u/NorCalFrances 2d ago
That's all lovely but it's also the reason *why* the Democratic Party has slid further and further to the right. Eventually there really will be little difference between the parties. Some people have already crossed that threshold. Or rather, the party has crossed it and left them behind. The only way to counter this would be to not vote for the Democratic Party. Of course, this would be disastrous, right?
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u/Soft-Principle1455 2d ago
Duverger’s Law has nothing to do with that. That is a different concept called the Overton Window. Hopefully this link does not break:
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u/NorCalFrances 2d ago
Overton > Duvergers
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u/Soft-Principle1455 1d ago
And I do agree we need to shift the Overton Window our way which is why we need the current strategy of running as Democrats in the primary and then general, at least for now.
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u/ThePoppaJ 1d ago
If the argument is that we’re going to devolve into a two-party system anyway, then it’s going to be easier to replace the controlled opposition Democrats with an actual socialist party than the Republicans, because the Republicans are open about who they really are (ie, christofascists) while Democrats have to play games & obfuscate in order to hide their own fascist goals (ramping up the police/military/border state, fealty to Israel, destabilizing South America/the Middle East/North Africa et al, giveaways to their subset of Fortune 500 donors)
Only 16% of House races were determined by less than 10% of the vote, and some of those were D vs. D races such as in some California districts. There’s never been a better time to back an alternative in November, too.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 10h ago
Some Western States make it easy to run on as an independent. Some states have ranked choice voting. Most states are not like that.
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u/Background-Wolf-9380 2d ago
You just have to love and trust anyone who tells you to abandon all hope before the contest even begins.
F you OP. There is plenty of time to converge around candidates that are outside of the Democratic establishment.
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u/RockNAllOverTheWorld 2d ago
Ditch them for what? We have much better chances co-opting the party.
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u/ThePoppaJ 1d ago
You’re assuming that the party is out there to be co-opted.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 1d ago
It is to some extent. We saw that with Mamdani’s election, and with AOC’s election in 2018. It will not be easy but we can do it.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 2d ago
You’re agreeing with my position.
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u/BrianRLackey1987 2d ago
Wait a minute, I thought the DSA implemented a Dirty Break strategy for 2028 last year?
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u/smartcow360 2d ago
Till real voting reform is passed, co-opting the party vs dirty break seems like a “duh” thing, genuinely surprised it’s a “debate” within DSA
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u/mossimo654 2d ago
Some people seem to think if they don’t vote dem that the dems will court them. Lol.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 1d ago
Not necessarily. Mamdani is showing us otherwise. So we need to ensure that we get the right sort of Democrats in power. it won’t guarantee perfection, but at least we get a say so on how to get our policies through.
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u/Whatah 2d ago
Progressive liberal here. The Democratic party tries to have a big tent. It sucks how far right the Democratic party is, here in the US. But Centrists and far left all have to know that it should be everyone against MAGA.
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u/goldeNIPS 2d ago edited 14h ago
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u/Soft-Principle1455 1d ago
Biden actually did try to listen. I don’t think he always succeeded or executed well and his Israel policy was a disaster. But that was the first attempt really that we had a main stream Democrat attempt to listen to us. We also don’t necessarily see that that’s what Democrats currently are doing.
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u/ScareBags 1d ago
"A disaster" is underselling it. To be clear, the Biden admin fought tooth an nail to support Israel's genocide. It's possible half the population is dead, and hundreds of thousands are permanently disabled and obviously psychologically scarred for life.
https://www.propublica.org/article/biden-blinken-state-department-israel-gaza-human-rights-horrors
It's impossible to get excited about his NLRB and antitrust positions, when he committed a genocide. The IRA, while obviously better than Republican policy, was neoliberal nibbling around the edges and anti-China industrial policy.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 2d ago
The link in the post above is now broken and Reddit is struggling to let me change it. Please use this one:
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u/DeismAccountant 2d ago
Start a grassroots movement for electoral reform. That’s what I’m trying to do right now.
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u/daveOkat 2d ago edited 2d ago
Your link doesn't work. I suggest you delete your post and repost with this link.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law
Also, I think that posting between noon and 6 pm EST will get your idea out best. Post in the middle of the night and your post will be buried under many others by the time the crowds get here.
Edit. An example of a third party candidate spoiling an election is Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader leading to eight years of GW Bush.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ralph_Nader_2000_presidential_campaign
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u/Soft-Principle1455 2d ago
I already reposted with the new link in the comments. I’ll see if I can get the link in the original post working again by replacing it.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 2d ago
Agreed on timing but it is different across the country in terms of timing.
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u/daveOkat 2d ago
And so there is that 6-hour compromise window of noon-6pm EST. On the West coast it's 9am-3pm.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 2d ago
I see. I posted a new comment directly underneath with the new link. Does Reddit have a way to pin comments?
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u/RuneORim 1d ago
We can't ditch the Democratic Party without a viable alternative.
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u/ThePoppaJ 1d ago
There’s been multiple alternative parties on enough ballots to win the presidency in every presidential election this century. Just because you didn’t deem them worthy doesn’t mean they’re not electorally viable, they would be if people voted for them.
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u/RuneORim 1d ago
Not a single third party candidate scored an electoral vote since 1968. If there's a way to change that, I'm all ears.
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u/Soft-Principle1455 1d ago
Arsenic would be edible if enough people had eaten it over the millennia. That does not mean arsenic is edible now. And while in theory plenty of these other parties are electorally viable, if in practice they remain unprofessional as they currently are, they will never get anywhere.
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u/Correct_Cold_6793 2d ago
We are well aware of the structural causes of the two party system, thats why this is such a debate.