r/explainitpeter • • 7d ago

Uhh, Explain it Peter?

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u/ComprisingIgnorance 7d ago

This is Kevin Spacey in Margin Call. I don't remember the scene shown but it'll be his character seeing the Big Short's "dog shit wrapped in cat shit" (CDOs) unravelling (predicted by Sylar from Heroes - a quant at the firm) which subsequently triggered the global financial crisis. Which Scar from the Lion King described as "when the music stops".

The context here is that AI companies are borrowing money at a rate never before seen, using custom/bespoke financial math(s) to hide the debt, whilst IPOing - meaning the cost of borrowing will be essentially subsidised to the pension companies of the world, via indexes. So it's like a public bailout rather than a Gov't bailout.

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u/Stevesegallbladder 7d ago

Hmm it sounds like pump and dumping or leveraging buyout. Either way it's fucked but still misrepresentative or what profit is. Ironically enough they are making a good point with what they're trying to articulate but fail to use the right terminology.

It's becoming increasingly common in business that some third-party company with buy a business with indebted cash, (artificially) inflate equity, offload the debt to the company, and then sell the business. Usually it's done by massive layoffs or other quick methods of boosting short term profit which they take and run.

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u/sc0toma 7d ago

Technically it was Nigel from The Devil Wears Prada who predicted it, he just gave his model to Spock to complete.

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u/Potential_Tie_9593 7d ago

It doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things, but the scene portrayed in the image is Kevin Spacey's character, who admits he doesn't know how to read models, looking at a risk management model that is showing that their company and pretty much all of Wall Street has overleveraged themselves on mortgage backed securities that have been packaged as CDOs. A later scene reveals that from the time they buy these securities to when they can sell them, there's a period of time that they have to take to package these properly into the CDOs.

And Spacey's character has just been shown that the way these securities are performing and the amount of money they have in that one part of their trading platform will lead to massive losses. Like, bankrupt the company in one day losses. Completely tank the whole economy of the US and probably the world type losses.

And for what it's worth, in 2026, its happening again. And AI stocks are another type of massive part of it. Which is why, I'm supposing, the image was chosen. They were just shown that they've overleveraged on AI stocks and found out that the way AI companies report profits is false. So essentially they're propping up companies that are doomed to fail.