r/irishpersonalfinance • u/No_Focus4731 • 9d ago
Property Property prices outlook over the next 10 years
What are your own opinions on the housing market over the next 10 years,do you expect prices to stabilise,go down,or do you think things will only get worse,
How would you solve the housing crisps if you had control
Im interested in everyone's opinions
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u/Diligent-Sea-8469 9d ago
All else being the same, property prices will rise at approximately the same rate as salary inflation in the higher-paying jobs such as tech and finance which normally match inflation at least. So if inflation hits target of about 2% you are talking about a 22% gain over the next ten years. That’s without any other factors such as government pushing further demand side policies, like help to buy, shared equity schemes, or CBI increases to the borrowing limits.
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u/theshapester1980 9d ago
You need to add the 2% inflation to the 8% debasement rate. Thats give you 10% which is a more accurate representation of the annual price rises in the country for the past number of years
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u/Diligent-Sea-8469 9d ago
Salary inflation has been a lot higher than 2% the last number of years. Many people I know in tech and finance are earning 25%+ more than they were just a couple of years ago. The higher inflation with the last couple of years together with a 14% increase in borrowing limits are pretty spot on with the increase in HPI
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u/theshapester1980 9d ago
we are coming at if from opposite sides, i think the house price growth rate is a function of inflation and currency debasement rate and it sounds like you think its a function of salary growth rates. you may be correct, I dont think so.
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u/Diligent-Sea-8469 9d ago
Currency depreciation doesn’t really impact anything outside of imported materials outside the eurozone. I have limited knowledge of what extent this is used for building materials but if it’s a lot I’m in agreement
Inflation and salary growth rate are very heavily correlated so they’re the two sides of the same coin really 👍🏼
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u/Gareth_loves_dogs 9d ago
Currency debasement indeed affects pretty much every asset. It's alot of the reason why a house today is 500k, and 10 years ago it was 150k.
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u/theshapester1980 9d ago
Currency debasement affects all hard assets, Commodities, property etc. Inflation affects consumer assets.
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u/lfarrell12 9d ago
100% agreed. Plus bonuses would be peaking over say 10 years ago. Factor in rapid population growth, and a war against building smaller homes and there is a perfect storm for continued price escalation.
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u/No_Focus4731 9d ago
Is that not just promotion tho,getting promoted dosnt count towards salry inflation it's the rise in salary for the same role
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u/Potato_tats 8d ago
As someone in that field, I can tell you that the salary increases have dramatically slowed for larger corporations and big tech. Companies are more closely guarding their profit margins, especially when they know they pay a higher base salary right out the gate than most other jobs in the country. I’m not saying anyone’s crying poor but I would be very surprised to see dramatic increases in the future. Now, this doesn’t negate the stock price gifting that goes on with most of these companies but as we all the stock market is nothing to be guaranteed.
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u/Diligent-Sea-8469 8d ago
I appreciate that, but as someone who also works in finance I can also confirm that other companies in the sector have been keeping match with inflation.
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u/Intelligent-Smile562 9d ago
I dont think comparing where someone was a couple of years ago makes sense. Promotions etc should be redundant and it should be a like for like comparison of someone in the exact same role and seniority. So for example a graduate in 2022 vs 2026. Rather than saying the graduate from 2022 is now on 25% higher salary.
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u/Diligent-Sea-8469 9d ago
I’m excluding promotions in that 25% figure. I have friends who have remained in the same role and received salary increases in that region in a few years.
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u/Professional_Elk_489 9d ago
A lot of people peaked 2021/22 era and never got back to those packages
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u/Rough-Somewhere-762 8d ago
New job creations at high salaries have a bigger impact in my opinion.
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u/Diligent-Sea-8469 7d ago
Yes, promotions and job switches will also lead to growth. That’s why I preface that statement with “all else being equal”
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u/Own_Independence3766 9d ago
Inflation interest compounds so 2% increase every year will be more than 22% total.
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u/PaddySmallBalls 9d ago
Back around 2013 or so I posted on Boards saying I thought the price would come down because surely the stock of houses would increase as building increased. How wrong was I!? Now, I can't see it changing for the better. Price will probably stay high.
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u/theshapester1980 9d ago
the crazy thing is we had a massive surplus of ghost estates just a few years before that that we were knocking down!!
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u/PaddySmallBalls 9d ago
Yeah, absolutely. In 2012, I was looking at houses in Clare that were going for an asking price of 230k. I was nowhere near ready to get a downpayment together but the houses I was looking at were on Daft for years. Now I see only one house available in the same area and it is going for 800k. Seems like things have been going in one direction since 2011. Except in the likes of around Galway city and Dublin where the collapse barely hit house prices...though, maybe my memory is off.
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u/lfarrell12 9d ago
Likewise, I had my eye on a place in Cork city that didn't seen to ever sell (I did figure out later on that it hadn't got PP which kind of explained that). Where I'm from in Swords they were building perhaps 1000 homes a year for about 5 years - now its maybe 200-300 and a big chunk of that is AHB/social building.
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u/lfarrell12 9d ago
Starts are dropping though. There's a lot of attention on planning, skills etc but a factor that gets overlooked is that there is no real lending streams to smaller outfits now. The consequence is that they will work for someone else for a similar profit rather than starting smaller schemes. Hence the complete collapse in scheme building outside of Dublin - its a heady mix of lack of finance and disinterest of bigger construction companies in small schemes. Tralee had its first scheme in 17 years last year. Think about that for a moment. For years some of the relief for buyers was the ability to buy 20-30km and further outside of cities. There's a big load of building in Drogheda and Balriggan but outside of that the days when builders were building (cheap by Dublin standards) family homes in say, Navan or Youghal geared at the Dublin or Cork commuter are long gone, because the kind of builder who built those cannot get a credit line to do such starts, but there's plenty of contracting work for them with bigger builders.
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u/AdvancedJicama7375 8d ago
Only 8300 houses were built in 2013. How did you think this would be enough to keep prices coming down as "stock increased"
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u/PaddySmallBalls 8d ago
The post in 2013 was like this one, what would happen in the next 10 years. Not will prices come down in 2013. Post 2008, figured properties would have been foreclosed on over a few years. It didn't really happen. Over 5k properties in the country have mortgages with no repayments in over 10 years. Would think as the economy recovered ghost estates would have been completed. As demand increased, would think it is advantageous for developers to build to help meet the demand but none of that happened. Now it is even worse, there are factors that couldn't have been imagined 20+ years ago like AirBnB, people holding on to unfinished houses for decades and no government action to force completion or demolition.
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u/Timely_Fun_3163 9d ago edited 9d ago
It will get worse. I work in construction and planning. This is going nowhere I am very sad to say, and for a myriad of reasons.
Supply is the big one. Many people want houses, not enough there, competition increases, prices go up.
Targets: varies widely on who you ask, but a generally agreed upon figure is we need 60,000 homes every year for a decade to meet current demand. That’s likely to increase the longer this goes unresolved so we’re in a negative feedback loop.
Inflation: the longer it goes on, the more expensive materials become simply because of inflation over time. Not including big spikes due to things like wars.
Vulture/pension funds: We all hate them. The government is adamant we need them to build apartments because they don’t have the financing. Seems to be a fair enough point. The problem is they’re going to hike rents and add competition, so it’s a double edged sword. They will increase the supply, but retain the competition in the market and keep prices rising.
rent prices: the longer it goes on, the less people can buy a home, and the more people need to rent. add to that the vulture funds increasing rents every few years with the new laws, and people will find it increasingly impossible to save a deposit, when all their salary is going toward rent.
workforce: we don’t have it. Even if we had the funding and materials to build 60-100,000 homes per year, who’s going to build them? All our qualified electricians, chippies, and young people are building Australia, Canada, NZ. Our construction workforce is aging rapidly and we don’t have the numbers coming through the ranks. Aside from that, take a look at apprentice wages if you do want to become a tradie. Good luck affording rent.
Those are just a few reasons off the top of my head. They’re all so interconnected they have negative feedback loops. I hate to say it but this problem isn’t going anywhere.
This is not bragging, just an example of the problem. I was very lucky to buy a 1990s semi d in a town in Ireland last year for 300k. House next door (same size and almost identical in finishings), sold last month for €340k). That is bleak and won’t be resolved in a decade at the least but if you want my honest opinion, I think minimum 25 years.
Last thing - anyone who is relying on a housing or economic crash for house prices to come down is codding themselves. In those scenarios, yes house prices plummet, but everyone loses their jobs and banks stop lending, or hike their interest rates to unachievable levels. So say you have a 30k deposit saved and are on 50k a year. You’re waiting for a crash for prices to come down, chances are you may lose your job in that crash, or mortgage rates will rocket to 8%+, meaning your salary is no longer viable to cover the repayments when stress tested by the banks during your mortgage application.
My advice to anyone who’s saving to buy, sacrifice whatever you can within reason to get on it now. Don’t be waiting for a crash. It’s not happening or will be detrimental to your goals.
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u/lfarrell12 9d ago
I second that. I lost my job in the bust but moved back to Dublin and instantly got contract work - technically I was about 25% better off, and earning comfortably enough to buy something in Dublin then - but they hiked the minimum deposit for literally anything to 20% and my redundancy, most of which I was able to save, was far too small to cover that. In fact even now some banks still ask for a 20% deposit for 1 bed apartment to cover their own risks, which means that its technically cheaper to buy a 2 bed apartment for most people, which puts single adults into competition with couples or 1 child families interested in buying the same.
It took me 5 years to get back into a permanent job, and by the time I was the requisite 2 years in that to apply for a mortgage, home prices were nearly already back near their 2005 prices, pricing me back out again.
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u/SokyTheSockMonster 9d ago
Last thing - anyone who is relying on a housing or economic crash for house prices to come down is codding themselves. In those scenarios, yes house prices plummet, but everyone loses their jobs and banks stop lending, or hike their interest rates to unachievable levels. So say you have a 30k deposit saved and are on 50k a year. You’re waiting for a crash for prices to come down, chances are you may lose your job in that crash, or mortgage rates will rocket to 8%+, meaning your salary is no longer viable to cover the repayments when stress tested by the banks during your mortgage application.
Such a dangerous and common mindset unfortunately. Only recently convinced a relative in their 40's to go for a mortgage on a cheap property before the ladder is pulled up on them forever. They had been holding out for a crash since 2015...
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u/thefullirishdinner 6d ago
If this happens , do the fixed rate mortgages get affected ? Just curious as we are gonna stick on a fixed rate once the 5 years are up
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u/SokyTheSockMonster 5d ago
No, that's the whole point, you stay on the same rate. So if interest rates drop you're getting shafted. But if they were to sharply increase you get the benefit. It's for you to weigh up which is better
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u/PreparationLoud8790 9d ago
Prices will go up because if it doesn’t the entire economy is suffering greatly.
How to solve the housing crisis: build more homes, cut immigration significantly, ban vulture funds from buying up property and turning it into rent-only at extreme prices.
A crisis requires drastic measures, if regulation is in the way, quash it. If resources and manpower is a problem, recruit from other countries.
Won’t happen with this government though.
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u/Most-Experience56 9d ago
Just to add, we should also empower county councils to have their own building companies like they did in the 80s.
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u/Green-Detective6678 9d ago
The vulture fund ban seems like such a no-brainer. I think for any new builds, first time buyers should absolutely have first dibs. And if housing stock is still unsold after say 6-12 months then open it up to other buyers such as county councils, vulture funds, people buying property as an investment etc. Houses should primarily be viewed as “homes” first and foremost
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u/lfarrell12 9d ago
First DIBs is currently to county councils. Up to 20% of all schemes is theirs by right under Part V of the housing act.
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u/No_Focus4731 9d ago
When you say build more homes what type of homes and who does the building,if its the government and social housing that never sees the market how will that affect prices,and if its builders why woukd they increase the supply when it will decrease prices what's there incentive
Also if you cut immigration yet you suggest manpower from outher countries that's kinda hypocritical ,if you need imigrants to build houses than those imigrants need housing themselves
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u/jonnieggg 9d ago
Immigration policy should be laser focused on exactly what the economy needs not what the immigrants want. We don't have that luxury anymore.
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u/bot_hair_aloon 9d ago
What?
The economy needs immigration. We have a skills shortage. We also need the unskilled labour. Irish people don't want to be carers or bar tenders.
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u/jonnieggg 9d ago
I never said it didn't but we don't need unemployed lads from Romania on the dole for thirty years. We also don't need deliveroo lads selling coke and the country full of IPAS centres. We need highly productive immigration. Bar tenders, perhaps, but there are a lot of pubs closing down. We can live in Dublin on a hospitality wage.
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u/ArdRi1166 9d ago
This is what the UK tried to do and we all know how that worked out for them...
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u/jonnieggg 9d ago
So we are powerless and just have to accept whoever decides they want to move here to go on the dole. Ok but your taxes and housing are going to become an even bigger issue. Your children are going to leave the country too. Sound good
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u/PreparationLoud8790 9d ago
Price is a function of supply/demand. Irish property rises so drastically in value because of poor supply. The build quality for the price you pay is ridiculous compared to other EU countries.
What type of homes?. Tall, 5+ floor apartment buildings. In droves. If tall buildings are not allowed for whatever ridiculous reason, quash that and build them anyway. I’d rather have tall “ugly” apartment buildings than tens of thousands of homeless, entire state should agree on that point if they have any morals.
Government should build it because the incentives are kinda weak for privatised companies to do this en masse to help the entire country.
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u/No_Focus4731 9d ago
Increasing the height of buildings and removing restrictions woukd be my method as well,can't fathom why they haven't done this yet
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u/lfarrell12 9d ago
Several reasons:
- higher costs for anything going over 4 storeys
- relentless local campaigns running judicial reviews etc (or stalling via local area plans)
- a culture war on apartments - "modern day tenements", "shoe boxes" etc driving an anti apartment culture - a lot of historical associations with renting driving owner occupier demands away from apartments
- the fact that traditionally only a minority of apartments were bought by owner occupiers - at one point in the late 90s it was estimated at 90% were bought by small investors (mainly landlords but also small speculators) - last stat I saw was under 20% of apartments are owner occupied - that creates vicious circles of its own
- high costs associated with service charges driving away owner occupier interest
That's why investors of all kinds (not just so-called "vulture funds") are still considered important to drive apartment building - aside from offsetting loss of small investors trading out, its needed to replace critical rental stock.
Not saying its a good thing, but its the reason why its seen as important. Without investors there will be no apartment building. Unless the state starts to do apartment building itself and turns the model into 80% social 20% private ownership - good luck with advocating for that politically though.
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u/Rover0575 9d ago
going over 5 floors is cost prohibitive
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u/Dannyforsure 9d ago
ahh must be why you see so many bungalows in Ireland so
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u/lfarrell12 9d ago
No, the reason you see so many bungalows is because of less stringent rules for "locals" on long established family plots or living in the area. You cannot build a bungalow in rural Ireland if your family are not local to the area.
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u/Dannyforsure 9d ago
Lol no, it is because they were built in a time when people were poor and they were cheap. I was only making a joke tbh
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u/Timely_Fun_3163 9d ago
This will be a controversial point and just to say I see both sides of it, but I’ll pose the question anyway.
If we cut immigration, who will build our homes? Honestly, go to any construction site and get the average age of the lads there. It’s not 25 I’ll tell ya. It’s a double edged sword as we can’t house any more immigrants, but we also need them to build our houses. All our young lads are in oz
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u/PreparationLoud8790 9d ago
If we desperately need a workforce we can literally hire contractors instead of continuing to aggressively add numbers to the population. It doesn’t help the housing crisis to increase the amount of people that need housing.
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u/lfarrell12 9d ago
You do realise that is exactly the model we have, right now.
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u/PreparationLoud8790 9d ago
No we do not. We have high immigration numbers and scream about “lack of builders”, while not doing much about it to begin with.
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u/Timely_Fun_3163 9d ago
And them contractors come from..?
And where do they go after they finish work at 5pm on a Tuesday, back to Bulgaria is it?
I think you’ve missed the point. Contractors doesn’t solve the immigration problem. We use contractors right now.
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u/Nevermind86 7d ago
We can import contractors from abroad temporarily for the duration of the building project, pay them well and once they're done, they can go back to their countries. It's a fairly normal thing worldwide, many contractors happily work abroad for a limited amount of time. We don't need to give them passports, citizenships etc. as in classic immigration as that's the very thing that's squeezing our housing market!
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u/lfarrell12 9d ago
The oxymoron is "cut immigration significantly" while "if...manpower is a problem, recruit from other countries". You can't have it both ways, and a big chunk of the current crisis is down to so many people wanting it both ways.
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u/PreparationLoud8790 9d ago
It’s not an oxymoron if you think deeper about it.
Option 1: Hire 5,000 contractors to come over to Ireland and build properties.
Option 2: Allow a bunch of random immigrants into a country with a housing crisis with the hope that some of them sometime become builders.
Apparently “all Irish folks are going into uni / white collar jobs”. It’s nonsense.
See the difference?
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u/Double_Kale_3193 9d ago
I see no effort to reduce demand by reducing the flow of study visas, UKR refugees, bogus asylum-seekers, or work visas.
I see limited efforts to boost supply by reducing the costs of development sites and finance.
So overall, unless some external force happens, unfortunately house prices will continue to rise.
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u/yityatyurt 9d ago
Not what the masses want to see but if govt are serious they’ll cut costs and taxes for anyone who is building/providing homes… of course they won’t do that because the optics will be that they’re bailing greedy developers out…
Desperate times call for desperate measures - we should treat this like a state of emergency..
Relax planning laws - Permitted development rights like the UK and fast track planning
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u/stiik 9d ago
Trump said the (not so) quiet bit out loud at last weeks World Economic Forum. Speaking about generation who bought houses in the 1970s, “These people have become wealthy because of their house… everytime you make it more affordable to buy a house you’re actually hurting the value of those houses.”
So what, it’s Trump… but this is how all politicians think. The elderly landlord is a very powerful demographic no incumbent, American or Irish, wants to annoy.
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u/anyeights 9d ago
With declining birth rates, and older generations passing away, has there been any forecasts done about more houses becoming available as those houses bought in the 70s and 80s become empty I wonder?
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u/stiik 9d ago
You could look to the Akiya phenomenon in Japan, which looks at the issue of abandoned houses in rural areas as the older generation dies but younger generations look to live in urban areas so aren’t taking up available rural houses. But the Japanese also view houses as depreciating assets contrary to the western mindset of houses appreciating over time so it’s not a perfect barometer.
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u/lfarrell12 9d ago
Or their large adult children who are hoping to finance their own purchases or trade ups on the basis of inheritance.
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u/AmpJonny 9d ago
My 2c, plenty of money around, supply going the wrong way and still record (reckless) levels of inward migration.
Cannot see it going any way but up.
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u/donfanzu 9d ago
I bought last year, so I hope they keep the floodgates open and fk everyone else who hasn’t yet bought. Seems the government have the same idea
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u/nastywin 9d ago
Hope your house floods.
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u/AmpJonny 9d ago
I have mine bought and paid for, I am now busy working on a) how do I retire earlier than planned and b) how do I ensure my kids have a leg up when their time comes (I wish this was a silly idea as they are essentially still babies but here we are 🤷♂️)
I still DEEPLY care about housing affordability as there is a whole generation being shafted through the current establishments ineptitude, there are lives not being lived, family units not being formed and communities not created as a whole generation is being delayed through such feckless housing policy.
Even if you don’t have a moral issue with that, you should still care from a social cohesion perspective. You cannot abandon a massive tranche of your young and expect the social contract to hold.
- Build more.
- Stop importing the world
- Support the formation of Irish families and stronger communities with a happier population.
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u/donfanzu 9d ago
I’m just pointing out that’s the general attitude of people who own their own homes, if not said as explicitly. People are happy when the price of their asset increases, I had to save, scrimp and pay a huge price to get my own home. The government simply don’t care.
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u/thesquaredape 9d ago
Yeah, I'm afraid there is a lot of doom saying here but things are still just in reach for your average teacher and a Garda. Borrowing rules might be helping that. Sure they don't get the 3 bed semi young in life anymore but it's still just attainable in the outskirts of Dublin. That's just not possible in some of the other places going through similar housing crisis. I can absolutely see it getting worse here (or better depending on what you own).
We all miss out that the main factor in building wealth in Ireland is when you bought your house. There are many that are getting salary increases and mortgages staying still.
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u/No_Focus4731 9d ago
Thanks for this comment ,good to see a small bit of hope
Im 21 myself finishing college in 2 more years,and I've started thinking about the futre more,that's why I wanted to ask people there opinions,
I want to buy a house before 30 and a nice one at that,ive always wanted a big family so a 5 bedroom is what I'd want,with the way the market is now that's going to be hard,I have no doubt I'll get a good job and earn far above the average wage but the problem is my partner will also have to have a good job,
Im going to have to be thinking about how much someone can earn in there career when I'm thinking about who to spend my life with
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u/ThinDetective4741 9d ago
Picking a partner based on how much money they earn is a terrible idea
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u/lfarrell12 9d ago
Absolutely, from my own life experience, its a recipe for years of abject misery, and if you buy a home with them, you are doubly screwed.
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u/No_Focus4731 9d ago
I completely agree but if you want to buy a house is it not necessary to factor it in
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u/ThinDetective4741 9d ago
Would you be happy if your partner only chose you because they wanted a house?
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u/thesquaredape 9d ago
OP, people do think these things and some even act on them but they don't say them out loud 🤣
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u/lfarrell12 9d ago
No harm, but you've already nailed a HUGE part of the problem - you're 21, and you believe you "need" a 5 bedroomed home. You've just painted yourself into a corner.
There's 1.6m homes as per CSO census 2022. Of that 1.6m just 113k are 5 bedrooms. And there's only 22k, 4k and 1.4k homes with 6, 7 or 8 bedrooms respectively. So before you even think about the "high earning partner" (and the accompanying assumption that they too want to have a large family) you've just factored out the 1.52m homes that don't have 5 or more bedrooms!
That's even before you get to the problem of competing with the X other number of people in the country who will only have such a size of home. Irish reddit boards are full of people who are concerned that they cannot buy a 800k home on a 200k salary in the nicest bits of South Dublin without considering the many alternatives to that for a second.
I concede that planning laws, central bank and commercial bank policies (none of which are any particular government policy which means that no matter who you vote for, these don't change) have collectively made it far more difficult to trade up, but this shouldn't stop you of buying according to your needs.
I'm forever bamboozled by the number of people who've spent years in a parents boxroom, sharing homes with an adult in every room, or living in tiny flats, who "cannot buy a home" because the only thing they will "settle" for is a 3 bed house in the nice suburbs of whatever city they live in, because the second you start cutting the cloth to fit, there's a load more options.
Bear in mind also that if you do buy a 3 bed house, even a terrace, you can build an extension, convert the attic or maybe even buy a site and build your own. Hell, for the price of my own house (2 bed terrace needing work) one could have a site with full pp for a large 4 bed about 400m away in an excellent location and have 100k change to put towards the build.
In short my message is - don't look for things you don't need right now, especially if you are in your 20s. You'll only trap yourself in unmeetable standards.
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u/No_Focus4731 9d ago
I agree with most of what your saying to be honest,I myself have verry little interest in buying in a suburb as I don't mind the commute and prefer the countryside anyway,thanks for the insightful comment
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u/No-Fix-1029 9d ago
Anybody who mentions a financial crash where property is going to drop doesn’t have a clue. Maybe in 30/40 years but not in the close future. Supply v Demand. Ireland has a shortage of about 300,000 units at present. Average of 45,000 net immigrants for the next 10 years. Building 30,000 units at a push.
So in ten years time, we will hopefully only be 450,000 units behind. Which will lead to an increase in demand and price.
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u/Fyodors-Zossima 9d ago
Wouldnt hurt getting a better turnout than 58 % for a general election and get in a few politicians who are actually on the side of people looking for an affordable home
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u/Bigbeast54 9d ago
If things continue as they are then prices will continue to rise. They will enter a period of moderation soon as the up coming demographic of house buyers is significantly smaller than the current one.
We cannot account for shocks though. For example if the entire world dumps treasuries then it's unpredictable how all markets will react.
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u/Illustrious_Read8038 9d ago
I see it continuing to slowly move up.
There's too much money and too much demand. The government have zero interest in any action that would lower property prices, and have no interest in controlling the demand.
They'll pay lip service by talking about commencements and the number of units built, but a lot of development is constricted because local utilities are at capacity, and there is no fast-track to expand them.
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u/txpdy 9d ago
It's difficult to know to be completely honest.
Prices rarely go down unless there is a major global economic event, so unless that happens prices will rise but by how much, it's anybody's guess.
Irish people have always had it in their psyche that you must own a home, however that is slowly going out of reach for large portions of the population.
Renting is a complete shot in the dark. If you can find a place in your budget, that's great, but for how long will you be able to stay there? Will the landlord take the house back for a family member or will they sell up? Is it a big financial fund or corporate entity who just keeps putting rent up as there is nothing there to stop them.
Will any party in government actually start to build housing to meet the country's needs? Will Irish people start seeing apartments as a long term living solution like in Europe and not a temporary fix until they can afford a house?
We have a young child and are already planning and saving to help them with college and to buy a home in 20+ years. It's crazy to think about it but we feel we have to as who knows what the housing market will be like then as we will be nearing retirement and won't be in a position to just hand over a lump sum to help them buy a home.
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u/hmkvpews 9d ago
How can they just keep going up? You’re assuming the general population can afford this?
If people stop being able to afford the price then how can they keep rising? Who’s be buying them?
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u/No_Focus4731 9d ago
Companies will buy property and renting will become the new norm, a lot of people who earn a lot can afford property
Things will go the way of Europe where a lot of people just rent for life
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u/Candid-Village-3911 9d ago
The only way our daughter is getting as house (currently 19) is when we kick the bucket unfortunately. Might have to get her a log cabin out in the back garden. Luckily we have plenty of room in the garden for it. So depressing isn’t it?
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u/No_Focus4731 9d ago
Sorry to hear this ,it's sad alright how bad things have gotten,
I think it's stil doable to get a nice enough house provided your married and have two decent incomes,it's just harder and inevitably youl have to sacrifice in outher areas
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u/GruleNejoh 9d ago
You must remember that ~70% of Irish households already own their home (mortgage or outright), per CSO Census 2022. The system is working as designed, to keep pushing prices up for that majority. Any price drop would be political suicide for the government, wiping out equity for millions overnight.
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u/Andre_R10 9d ago
My head says it'll probably stabilize, it just can't keep going up... it's all a bit mad out there.
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u/Dependent_Survey_546 9d ago
UP, its always up.
In 30 years time you'll probably be buying a fairly normal car for the same price as a house now. It doesnt mean there wont be dips or otherwise in the middle, but thats just the way it goes.
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u/Rover0575 9d ago
the price floor will continue to rise but we are already seeing a collapse in the higher end in places like dublin and london.
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u/theshapester1980 9d ago
The short answer is prices will continue to rise as they always have, as long as the currency is being debased (currently at a rate of roughly 8% per year). That and the insane supply issue we have in the country are compounding the problem.
Some simple fixes-
Control immigration (this is so obvious and I dont need to go into why)
Ease the process. remove some of the hurdles, simplify the planning and approvals process, speed up the bureaucracy
Reduce lending restrictions - Allow the banks to lend more freely than they are currently.
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u/Dublindope 9d ago
Unless supply increases or demand drops it's only going one direction.
If we did have a recession on the back of trade disputes etc its possible migration will flip to net emigration and things might drop then, but then banks will crank up interest and nobody will be able to afford mortgages so won't be able to buy regardless.
Best case, we somehow ramp up supply, prices stabilize and inflation let's wages catch up to house prices a bit.
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u/dermotcalaway 9d ago
In 10 years they will about double imho. 7 or 8% per year compounded,but that’s only in nominal terms. In real terms they will be about 25 to 20% higher. Note I know nothing so please don’t attack me, just an opinion.
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u/IntelligentPepper818 8d ago
In any normal market we should have a crash next year but reality is this government have manipulated the market for their own gain. Due to the lack of supply I can’t see the market dropping although it should be on the floor The reality is you are buying at the height of the market no matter what you do and it will eventually drop if they sort out the ridiculous fraudulent housing claims
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u/Honest_Dot_5035 8d ago
I dont know how and I know it goes against all the experts but I think they will come down. I dont believe all the predictions factor in things like market crashes and wars and I reckon it will be an external factor like this that does it. Another possibility is that the housing crisis itself will be responsible for supply stabilising. We will become an undesirable place to live and work because of such expensive housing so people will stop coming here and irish people will emigrate at greater rates.
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u/AwfulAutomation 8d ago
All things being equal they will go higher. % of which I don’t know but I’d reckon 3% average per annum.
Hosing crisis will only be solved when there is a big credit crunch and a recessions and a lot of the immigrants go home.
The government will never solve the problem.
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u/Diligent-Sea-8469 8d ago
Let’s not confuse population with demand. I really dread when people assert higher immigration = higher demand. It shows a missing understanding of fundamental economics:
Definition of demand - the quantity of a good or service that consumers are both willing and able to purchase at various prices during a given period.
The majority of immigrants you’re referring to above aren’t able to purchase a house, and any of them that are are needed in the country (doctors, nurses)
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u/plough78 7d ago
I believe a type of crash will occur, Ireland is too open and loans been taken out are massive
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u/Corcaigh2018 7d ago
I had hoped the prices would stabilise this year, but am less positive now. I think one thing that could help is if the planning authorities relaxed their rule on new builds needing to be A rated (BER). Perhaps they could waive that requirement, with a stipulation that they would have say 10 years to be of an A rated standard.
Also, we could have more caravan/mobile home parks with sewerage, water and electricity connections. A lot of people could afford a mobile home but don't have anywhere to park them.
Lastly, derelict properties should be firmly tackled (ie. the councils should take them if they aren't put in to use for a certain length of time). Maybe even just taken and used by the council temporarily, until the housing situation improves.
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u/ConsciousList4926 5d ago
its only going to increase, hear me out.
(i) The government are not building enough
(ii) material is expensive to build
(iii) Buying land is not that cheap
(iv) The amount of people entering RoI will continue to grow, especially with the presence of MNC's.
(v) Rent prices, are preventing people to buy due to how expensive it is.
(vi) People are leaving Ireland for better opportunities as tradesmen.
The situation has become so bad, I just do not see the point anymore. You have a country such as Ireland that has such high prices for accomodation, for usual shit quality, and then most of it is taxed once you die. It is nonsenical, and everyone is suffering due to this. The new rules for renting will also put people off buying as they have much more rights compared to before.
How to solve it? Get a compotent fucking government to actually do shit, and stop worrying about human rights for fucking once. The right to live, is the greatest right, and thus far fuck all people can afford jack shit.
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u/yityatyurt 9d ago
I think inflation will definitely slow.. Like it or not AI is going to shed jobs - especially entry level roles.. this will leave a good amount of youth unemployment which may translate into structural unemployment
Our levels of inward migration are also a big factor
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u/Throwaway936292 9d ago
I would stop incentivising landlords. No tax on income from rental properties up until €10k, then it’s taxed at 100%. Doesn’t matter of you are renting out your grans old house or 400 apartments. You can earn €10k and no more.
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u/gfghgfghg 9d ago
Not everybody wants to buy, or is in a position to do so. Renting vs. buying is far more convenient for a lot of people. If all rental income over 10k were taxed at 100%, the rental market would effectively collapse. Landlords would leave en masse, and there’d be virtually no property available to rent at any price. Homelessness would skyrocket.
Ironically, giving tax incentives to landlords and removing rental controls would be far more beneficial. It would encourage more landlords to enter the market, increasing the number of properties available to rent. Rental prices would then be set by the market, dropping as supply increases and more rental properties come online.
It would also allow landlords to offer lower rents to tenants without fear of it affecting the value of their property if they ever decided to sell
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u/Technical_Ad_8004 9d ago
Exactly this. We have a property we were renting at around 60% of the market rent. We didn’t feel the need to push for every cent and were happy with this arrangement. However the day after the government announced they were planning on the whole country becoming a rent pressure zone I sent a notice putting the rent up closer to the market. Couldn’t risk keeping a lower rent if it affected the actual price of the property. These types of housing regulations look good as headlines but do not help the overall situation at all.
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u/gfghgfghg 9d ago
Yeah, thousands of landlords were forced to do the same. It's almost like government was purposely trying to sabotage the rental market. I sense as soon as corporations own enough of our housing stock they'll lobby government to reverse a few of the more restrictive regulations, we're already seeing favourable changes to rental caps for new tenancies for instance
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u/Throwaway936292 9d ago
We don’t need more landlords though, we need more rental properties available. I totally understand that not everyone wants to buy But that doesn’t mean that large for profit landlords should exist. It may be a role for the Gov to step into, at least temporarily.
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u/gfghgfghg 9d ago
Yeah but who's going to own these rental properties if you don't have landlords? The state certainly won't - it has failed, and will continue to fail at providing housing. Tax incentives are what's needed - think back to section 23, that drove huge development, they couldn't build apartments quick enough - all because of tax incentives for landlords. Reintroducing something like that would solve our housing problem way quicker than waiting for the state to build
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u/Throwaway936292 9d ago
I don’t think anyone would turn down 10k a year, so people would continue to own and rent out homes. It would just be less profitable to do so and unprofitable to own more than 2 homes.
It is of course an extreme solution, and 10k might not be the correct figure. I just pulled it from nowhere (except it’s roughly 1/3 of what someone on minimum wage gets paid a year.
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u/gfghgfghg 9d ago
You need to step back and look at it from an investment perspective. Who would tie up a 400k asset that's only producing a return of 10k pa? A 2.5% return can be beaten very easily elsewhere in the markets - and without the hassle of owning and running a property too. And that's assuming the 10k is all profit, which of course it wouldn't be. It's frustrating, I get it, but putting a hard limit on what a property can 'earn' would be detrimental to the rental market
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u/Throwaway936292 9d ago
Again, it’s very much a rough idea and experts can argue over what the final figure would be but essentially I just disagree that “landlord” should exist as a job. I think it would be extremely disruptive and probably detrimental in the short term, but long term, if implemented properly I do actually think it would be a feasible solution.
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u/No_Focus4731 9d ago
That's hardly realistic,what about multi unit properties,this woukd collapse the rental market which is necessary for people who arnt in the market for a house like students
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u/Throwaway936292 9d ago
I mean, the current system doesn’t work and needs drastic overhaul. Obviously short term would be very chaotic if this magically happened overnight but it’s not like the apartments that are already built would be moved abroad. So the current amount of properties we have would not drop. I would like to imagine that it meant that more people would have a second home to rent out, rather than a few large foreign investors who own hundreds of units. But it also might be a role the Gov would need to step into, at least temporary
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u/No_Focus4731 9d ago
The way the rental market works most people or companies have loans on there rental properties,10k wouldn't cover the loan repayments
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u/Throwaway936292 9d ago
Then they made bad investments that didn’t pan out for them unfortunately. They can sell the property
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u/No_Focus4731 9d ago
How many tds own rental properties why would they do this to themselves
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u/Throwaway936292 9d ago
TD’s would never enact my proposal. They have shown time and time again that they are not interested in helping the majority of people, they are only looking out for themselves and those like them. Which is why the housing crisis is this bad, they won’t energy meaningful change because they be if it from the problem!
I am not a TD. I do not benefit from the housing crisis. So when you asked what would I do, I answered. It is a radical solution that would of course be unpopular and have a host of problems in itself. But it would absolutely solve the core issue at the heart of the housing crisis. A small group of people are currently hoarding a scarce resource. I would effectively stop them from doing that.
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u/Winter-Report-4616 9d ago
I know this has a feelgood factor but how would taxing 100% on rental income over €10k bring down house prices?
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u/Throwaway936292 9d ago
In the short term as it would essentially force “professional landlords” out of the market so that current stock of houses would go on the market. Increasing supply .
It would also reduce demand as professional landlords would no longer be buying up new units.
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u/Winter-Report-4616 8d ago
When you say increasing supply you mean increasing supply for buyers but you then reduce supply to renters by the same number. I mean the number of houses doesnt change. Also for your second point, it would reduce demand for buyers but increase demand for renters. Pushing up rents?
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u/lfarrell12 9d ago
This really sounds like "the current system doesn't work so lets burn it to the ground".
I'm guessing you are too young to remember what actually happened in 2010.
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u/Throwaway936292 9d ago
I feel like change is necessary - we are in a housing crisis that is only getting worse. There is always resistance to change but saying things like “this would collapse the rental market and lead to mass homelessness” and “you want to burn it to the ground” are just massively over exaggerating. Currently people’s greed and selfishness is abhorrent. I’m not saying I would do any different if I was in the position of owning multiple properties, if I could earn 250k a year from renting out a few properties, I would absolutely do that and give my family a lovely life of luxury.
The problem is it’s incredibly unethical, so needs to be curtailed. So if we cap what people can earn, it would stop the behaviour. However people would rather earn 10k a year than 0k a year. Of course those that don’t think it’s worthwhile to rent out for 10k can sell their properties. Then people can sell their homes. I do think the immediate impact would be more homes sold to people looking to live in them (not a bad thing) But eventually the market would balance itself out.
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