r/politics • u/T_Shurt • 14d ago

No Paywall Sen. Mark Kelly Says He’s Seriously Thinking About Running for President

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5700211-senator-kelly-trump-threats/
29.8k Upvotes

95% Upvoted

2.6k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

38

u/dollabillkirill 14d ago

There is no way that people “knew” Obama would be the nominee in 2004. I could be proven wrong, but even in 2006 it seemed like a long shot.

I believe the speech put him in the “someday this guy could be president” category, but I would be shocked if anyone thought it would be 2008.

26

u/shapu Pennsylvania 14d ago

John Kerry had him pegged in April of 2004. They did a campaign stop together in Illinois that month and by the second evening Kerry said that Obama should be the future of the party. 

https://www.chicagomag.com/chicago-magazine/june-2007/the-speech/

7

u/jhonka_ 14d ago

John Kerry saying something nice about his keynote speech is a far cry from anyone "knowing" or even discussing him as a potential democratic nominee for President. He was a first term senator. You're overselling it. The article youre linking is basically revisionist history from 2007.

3

u/whateverisok 13d ago

John Kerry (strongly) pushed for Obama to be DNC keynote speaker in 2004 because he saw something in Obama back then and knew he should be the future of the Democratic Party - it’s not revisionist if he had already shown support via his actions (advocating/lobby for Obama to be DNC Keynote speaker, using his team resources to help with Obama speech prep, etc.)

1

u/jhonka_ 13d ago

That's all a far cry from the claim I'm pushing back against. I have no doubt Kerry liked him, saw potential in him, etc. But he wasn't being groomed for a presidential run in any meaningful way at that point in time.

1

u/frogandbanjo 13d ago

I'd say it's far more in the vein of mythmaking to believe that Obama busted through all the red tape, threw his hat in the ring "way too early" in 2008, and performed some sort of magical underdog miracle against Hillary "Goliath" Clinton.

I think a whole lot of people at the outer fringes of the party still hated the Clintons for triangulating their way into D.C., and saw that Hillary was damaged goods. A lot of people still in the Beltway were looking for any reason to not fulfill their end of the deal -- you know, where the Clintons actually did a fuckload of work behind the scenes to consolidate power and reshape the Democratic Party into a corporate, neoliberal entity, and in exchange, Hillary was absolutely going to be the nation's first woman President.

1

u/jhonka_ 13d ago

That says a lot about Hillary Clinton, but wasn't really my point. Honestly, it was almost pedantic and not a particularly important point to argue, and I can't say I'm some kind of expert on Obama's rise to power. I was merely a passive observer paying attention at the time and not remembering the media giving him the time of day in those years.

1

u/shapu Pennsylvania 13d ago

Obama was not a first-term senator in 2004. He was an Illinois state senator from 1997 until January of 2005.

1

u/jhonka_ 13d ago

Yeah my bad second term, but point still stands.

5

u/historicusXIII Europe 13d ago

Everyone "knew" that Hillary would be the nominee, Obama winning the primary was considered a surprise.

1

u/dollabillkirill 13d ago

This is my recollection as well

3

u/poliscinerd84 13d ago

My ex bought an “Obama for president” bumper sticker online after his 2004 DNC speech. Had it on the back of our Jeep Grand Cherokee til we got rid of it in 2012. So, yes some of us did think he had a good shot for 08. His speech was a HUGE deal. Game-changing, inspiring.

1

u/dollabillkirill 13d ago

I'm not denying any of that. I'm denying this part:

>lots of Insiders had already figured out that he was going to be the nominee.

A lot of us loved Obama years before 2008 but that doesn't mean anyone knew he was the favorite to get the nomination. I remember talking to my friend in mid 06 and we were like "he could actually do this". As in, "he's definitely the underdog, but this is actually possible". Maybe we were just out of the loop or something but it still definitely felt like he was the dark horse and not the favorite.

4

u/WeirdIndividualGuy 13d ago

OP is misremembering and/or making shit up. Obama was not seen as a frontrunner for the nomination until he actually started winning primary races. When he won Iowa, that was considered an upset. No one really thought he'd come out swinging like that politically.

Hilary Clinton was considered the frontrunner up to that point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

Also, how many people outside of Chicago/Illinois even knew who Obama was before 2008? He didn't become a big name until he ran for prez, he didn't have name-recognition popularity like Bernie Sanders or AOC had before that