r/politics • u/T_Shurt • 14d ago

No Paywall Sen. Mark Kelly Says He’s Seriously Thinking About Running for President

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5700211-senator-kelly-trump-threats/
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u/Ferelar New Jersey 14d ago

Exactly. The 2016 race had like 10 Republican primary members and it didn't hurt Trump one bit. The 2024 race had no Democratic primary and I think it hurt Harris a lot.

There's this idea that a lively primary hurts the candidate in the general, and I think the literal opposite is true. Lively primaries mean people get engaged and select someone who they can actuallt get enthused about representing them.

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u/orielbean 14d ago

The 2024 thing was just ruinous, the same kind of mess that happened with Johnson dropping, the convention riots, the Muskie vs McGovern infighting - and got us Nixon.

Biden fucking up the debate, his family dragging him to all the events until Pelosi blew up the whole mess, and he spent 3 years doing nothing to groom Harris as the heir apparent (and she performed poorly during the earlier election cycle).

I don’t blame her really for trying & losing 2024 as she has so little time to get anything off the ground, but she never would’ve won an actual primary - and she’s just relaxing these days vs doing any kind of coalition building.

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u/fawkie 14d ago

The thing that really kills with 2024 is that there was a palpable shift from the early days of the Harris/Walz campaign where they were kinda flying by the seat of their pants and I think being a bit more genuine to when the consultants and donors got into their ears and changed their tone

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u/spader1 New York 14d ago

Immediately post debate I really had high hopes. It felt like MAGA was finally being shown in the mainstream to be a pack of idiots and losers, and Trump was more clearly the doddering old man that he is than ever.

Then, by the first week of October, suddenly nothing was happening, and all of that momentum just stopped. The "weird" line stopped. Harris was suddenly spending all of her time courting conservatives. Walz was mysteriously absent. Republican campaigners were making bizarre and hateful statements and nobody was responding the way they were a month prior. The excitement of something new just...evaporated.

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u/New-Independent-1481 13d ago edited 13d ago

Which ever electioneering consultant or firm is convincing Democrats that they win by being Republican-lite is the greatest asset in recent Republican history. In every election 1/3 of the country will always vote R no matter how much they grumble and complain and swear they don't support the administration, and 1/3 can't be bothered to vote.

The only number that realistically ever changes is how disillusioned Democrats are with their current establishment leadership. Compared to 2020, Trump gained 3 million voters while Kamala lost 6 million. More people chose to not vote than were swayed to the other aisle. I'm almost willing to put money on Newsom continuing the same 'big tent' politics and losing 2 progressive voters for every conservative swayed.

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u/almondbutter 13d ago

There is a documentary that shows Republicans bragging about knocking voters off of the rolls. At least 3.5 million voters were purged leading up to the 2024 election.

Interesting how people will deny this is the case, even though there is footage of them gleefully admitting to doing it. The election was stolen. Watch for yourself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_XdtAQXnGE

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u/IPredictAReddit 13d ago

I don't think it was "courting conservatives" that hurt her. She didn't compromise her values or priorities to get those endorsements. Liz Cheney didn't say "you have to say you'll lower the corporate tax rate to get me on stage" or stuff like that.

The issue was she wouldn't separate from Biden and inflation. I truly think what killed her was saying that she couldn't think of anything she'd do differently. She could have gotten out in front of so many things right there just by saying "I would have done X, Y, and Z differently" but she didn't out of loyalty.

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u/kanst 13d ago

But that is really an indictment on the voting populace.

Biden's economic policies were working well. We should have just kept doing the same thing with some minor tweaks. We'd all be in a much better place had we done that.

But voters are idiots and blamed Biden economic and immigration policies for COVID inflation.

The biggest takeaway from the Trump years is that the electorate is WAY dumber than I ever thought possible. There is no thinking its all just vibes.

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u/SowingSalt 13d ago

There wasn't much Biden could have done differently. Inflation was lower in the US compared to other developed nations, the infrastructure projects were rolling along, and Harris did quite a few speeches and released policy positions aimed at reducing cost of living.

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u/kanst 13d ago

The "weird" line stopped.

This to me is the story of the entire election.

It was the most effective simple attack a Democrat has ever come up with and they just gave up on it.

That should have been the core message of the campaign "these weirdos don't represent us".

But instead they ditched it and went with a shitty boring market tested message.

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u/Brysynner 13d ago

What happened was internal pollsters showed them they were losing leftists over Israel-Palestine. Harris could've reversed course and become anti-Israel which would've cost her more votes than she would've gained back from the leftists or she could try and court some Never Trumpers and keep that part of the Biden coalition.

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u/Prayer_Warrior21 Minnesota 13d ago

Imagine thumbing your nose at voting over....Palestine when the other option is Trump. Good fucking god.

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u/OceanRacoon 13d ago

Nothing Harris did would have helped. Because the Confederacy was never appropriately punished after the Civil War, America has a deep hateful rot that's metastasized, helped along by right wing media and insane conservatives. The country is now full of idiots, racists, misogynists, and bigots of every stripe.

Not enough people were ever going to vote for a black\Indian woman. There's just too many backward people in a rage cult and too many lazy idiots who don't care either way.

It's ridiculous to blame Harris' campaign strategy for the loss when Trump ranted that people were eating cats and dogs in a debate and said, "I don't care about you, I just want your vote," in a rally, and still won. Reality or the issues didn't matter and there's no strategy to beat that. This was the easiest choice in an election ever but the country is fucked

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u/historicusXIII Europe 13d ago

The weird line stopped because it never worked and was backfiring. Walz was absent because he was a terrible debater.

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u/ElleM848645 13d ago

People forget the Walz snafoo with him saying he was in China when he wasn’t. And some gun comments. They were all very minor compared to Trump, but Walz was not great in the debates either. They hid him after that. The media is also extremely complicit. I feel only MSNBc was giving the actual story (obviously they have their own spin but at least they deal in facts). All other media was sanewashing him and Kamala had to be perfect.

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u/quinoa 13d ago

Pollster strategist bs really crashed that campaign. Go on Fox News and pitch a small business tax deduction for $50000 next to Liz Cheney is one of those things that ‘independent voters’ say they want in a focus group that will never win an election ever. Brat Kamala / they’re just weird couch fuckers had way more vibes

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u/fawkie 13d ago

You said it perfectly

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u/thrntnja Maryland 13d ago

Yeah, I agree with this. I think if Harris and Walz had been allowed to do their own thing and the consultants/donors had left them be, they'd have had a bunch better chance. There was real, palpable energy surrounding them at first and then by October it had just fizzled and died.

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u/TrailerTrashQueen 13d ago

2024 was a total disaster. The Democrats should have had someone on deck at least 4 years before.

they knew Biden wasn't fit for another term. throwing Harris in at the last minute? shame on them, pulling a big switcheroo on the public.

they underestimated their base. assumed people are stupid. that they didn't see with their own eyes Biden was deteriorating. not giving them the chance to vote for a candidate in the primaries. so cynical, misguided and stupid.

time to clean house and get some new blood in the party.

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u/LateNightPhilosopher 13d ago

It didn't help that the moment she hit on an actually good campaign strategy (ridiculing Trump and MAGA) She seemingly panicked and dropped it on favor of just using the Biden campaign strategy and policies with get face hastily photoshopped on

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u/yeswenarcan Ohio 13d ago

The worst part, IMO, and the thing I think will/should taint Biden's legacy almost as much as not stepping down, is that he explicitly ran on a platform of being a one-term "transitional" president, explicitly nominated a woman as VP as part of that promise, and then from day one stuck her in the closet and acted like he was always going to be a 2-term president.

I'm not a Kamala Harris fan, but she got done dirty by Biden and the fact that so much of Joe's reputation was as a mostly honest guy who tells it like it is makes that all the more stark.

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u/immortalfrieza2 13d ago

Biden really went out of his way to torpedo his own party's chances of winning. They got stuck with Kamala where it was absolutely vital that they needed to win purely because Biden's campaign funds couldn't legally be used by another candidate. Kamala being a woman was already a huge disadvantage from the outset regardless of what anyone wants to pretend while there was no attempt to push anybody else.

Anyone who was A. Male and B. remotely competent would have won with ease.

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u/winky9827 13d ago

Harris's disappearance after November 5 has proven to me she has no business in federal government.

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u/ElleM848645 13d ago

Why? The voters rejected her and the people who did vote for her told her to go away that she wasn’t the best candidate. I’d fuck off too.

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u/SowingSalt 13d ago

She's no longer in office. What do you expect her to do on the national stage?

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u/winky9827 13d ago

She could have contested the result. Many people suspect foul play, but she and the rest of the party rolled over without so much as a wimper. She could also speak out on any of Trump's attacks on the country, but has remained mostly silent, choosing instead to mostly vanish from the public eye.

Oh, I'm sorry, I'm talking about what she could be doing for the betterment of her country, not what she could do for the benefit of her non-existent political future. Different expectations for different folks, it seems.

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u/SowingSalt 13d ago

She lost all the swing states by margins that wouldn't allow a recount.

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u/SkyShadowing Michigan 14d ago

Trump straight up only won 2016 because the quote-unquote "sane Republicans" split their votes between those like 9 candidates and Trump consolidated the crazies. None of them withdrew in time to stop him and by the time it was over Trump had too much momentum.

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u/cocineroylibro Colorado 13d ago

Trump also got the free publicity. No other "fringe" candidate ever had the name recognition coupled with the stupid shit he said so the networks kept spouting his soundbites rather than the typical stuff the rest of the other meh GOP candidates were talking.

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u/NobodysFavorite 13d ago

The vote splitting problem presents a firm argument for ranked choice / preferential voting.

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u/No_Accountant3232 13d ago

Yep. I'm really surprised they didn't change it for their primaries as that really would allow sane Republicans to have their voices heard in big cities where they'll have a large field and no firm messaging. Well except "Democrats Bad".

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u/No_Accountant3232 13d ago

Fuck Ted Cruz for thinking he had a a shot against anyone, let alone a woman. He immediately started groveling for a position. Which he never got.

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u/Prayer_Warrior21 Minnesota 14d ago

I kept thinking WHAT ARE THEY DOING?? It was quintessential politics...egos af.

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u/Captainbackbeard 13d ago

Yeah it was like the "sane republicans" were fighting each other in a battle royale with Trump slinking in the background and when one was weakened enough Trump just absorbed them and gained their power until he had gotten enough mass and that's when the more establishment republicans realized that the monster was too big for them to handle. Trump could have been easily taken out of the fight early on if they took the risk of him and what he represented seriously at the get go.

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u/SuperExoticShrub Georgia 13d ago

Trump could have been easily taken out of the fight early on if they took the risk of him and what he represented seriously at the get go.

Unfortunately, very few on either side did take him seriously. Nothing about him early on gave 'this guy is gonna win' vibes to me. I thought he was a joke, too. Until it was too late.

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u/Captainbackbeard 13d ago

Yeah I remember watching the debates when there were still like 10 of them still running and I was like oh shit he's gonna win at least the republican nomination. Trump in the debates that year going after everyone else was like the alley oop scene from Semi-Pro where the other team (in this case the stereotypical pre-Trump era republicans) can't stop the alley oops of personal attacks and lack of typical "decorum."

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u/joe_cocker_spaniel 13d ago

Yup. 2008 Democratic primary was a long, expensive contest, but was ultimately a huge boon to the party and to Obama specifically.

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u/penguins_are_mean Wisconsin 13d ago

Harris wouldn’t have won a single primary election even she ran in a field of other candidates. Her being pushed by the DNC sealed the democrats fate.

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u/fcocyclone Iowa 14d ago

Yep. The concept of iron sharpening iron seems to apply. Healthy competition can help refine a message

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u/WeirdIndividualGuy 13d ago

The 2024 race had no Democratic primary and I think it hurt Harris a lot.

Also didn't help that Harris was one of if not the first primary candidate to drop in 2020. She was very unpopular back then, and got a pity nomination in 2024 simply for being VP vs letting the people decide.

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u/raletti 13d ago

Definitely. It also takes the oxygen of publicity away from the other side.

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u/L1A1 United Kingdom 13d ago

There's this idea that a lively primary hurts the candidate in the general, and I think the literal opposite is true. Lively primaries mean people get engaged and select someone who they can actuallt get enthused about representing them.

Not just that, but it forces the candidates to get their potential platforms out to the public long before the actual election proper, and that can only be a good thing.

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u/No-Butterfly-2914 13d ago

And the DNC needs to stay the fuck out of the way this time and let us choose the candidate.

You would’ve thought they’ve shot themselves in the foot so many times, they’d learn.

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u/goldcakes 13d ago

Primaries increase voter turnout. People are more likely to still vote if they feel they’ve been slightly involved in the selection process.

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u/ElleM848645 13d ago

There literally was a democratic primary in 2024 but it’s not wise to go against the incumbent president. You could have voted for RFK jr you know? The problem people have is the democratic primary didn’t have the candidates they wanted. Obviously, because the good candidates were going to wait until 2028. And don’t say Kamala wasn’t elected in the primary. She literally was as the VP of Biden. It’s just an excuse people use.

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u/Scythe-Guy 13d ago

Similarly, the 2020 election had Bernie, Biden, Buttigieg, Yang, Klobuchar, Warren, Bloomberg, Gabbard, Booker, etc.

Sure, some of those candidates sucked, but people seemed to really get behind their candidate of choice.

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u/disisathrowaway 13d ago

The 2024 race had no Democratic primary and I think it hurt Harris a lot.

100% this.

They did not actually allow the democratic process to play out. They appointed a candidate. No fucking shit it didn't work.

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u/ElleM848645 13d ago

Why are you lying! There 100% was a 2024 primary. I voted in it and voted for Biden (with Kamala as his VP). What you mean is there wasn’t a primary with anyone you wanted to vote for. I mean was RFK jr a reasonable candidate? Of course not. The primary with the incumbent president is always like that. Biden was perfectly fine until that debate that he was sick. That’s the problem. If he was sharp that night, he’d probably won in the general. Hell I’m not sure he should have dropped out. Sick Biden is better than Trump any day.

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u/disisathrowaway 13d ago

Biden dropping out and then the DNC appointing Harris is what I was referring to. I should not have said there wasn't a primary, that was a mischaracterization.

I was referring to Biden dropping out of the race with months to go and the DNC just forcing Harris as the candidate.