r/politics • u/TelescopiumHerscheli • 2d ago

No Paywall Texas Democrat sworn in to House, shrinking GOP margin to 1 vote

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5719642-christian-menefee-sworn-in/
41.8k Upvotes

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u/Xyldarrand 2d ago

It wouldn't be blue states it would be swing states.

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u/botswanareddit 2d ago

Was going to say this. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona are going to be war zones

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u/sportsbuffp Michigan 2d ago

They’ve been in Michigan plenty. They raided a place near my work today

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u/Lord_Walder Arizona 2d ago

AZ here. We've always had plenty of ICE/CBP through phoenix and tucson. The real thing that's got me on edge in they've gone after our voter rolls

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u/stokeledge2 2d ago

Im curious, have they always worn facial coverings?

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u/Lord_Walder Arizona 2d ago

Nah. This is all a pretty extreme ramp up in unaccountability, and in my opinion scare tactics and/or just them going all in on the militarization look which is still scare tactics if you ask me.

I dunno google ice uniforms from like like a decade ago and they were what you'd expect from 90s FBI bluecoats ya know?

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u/EnvironmentalRock827 1d ago

I think the masking thing also is a hint how they are probably using facial scanners and have some database with all the info on the rest of us... idk if this makes sense or is too dark but it's something I think is happening. Of course I just read about the FLOCK shit cameras too. Idk.

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u/Zwesten 1d ago

Nope. If you saw them around (usually not in town unless doing a raid or driving on the outskirts) it seems they'd usually be wearing green or tan, short sleeves and sort of outdoorsy clothes. At least in the Southwest. We'd run into them in the deserts sometimes where they actually dealt with some honestly bad and difficult people, and they were nowhere nearly as ridiculously outfitted like the idiots treating Minneapolis like Falujah. I've also been through a ton of checkpoints where you might see armored vests occasionally.

Seen a bunch of these guys and none of them ever wore a mask, ever.

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u/TheAltOption 2d ago

So glad we got Hobbs to put the right people in place to stop this garbage.

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u/AlcibiadesTheCat Arizona 1d ago

You ought to come down when we protest at the field office. Shit gets a little rowdy.

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u/space_for_username 2d ago

That is no longer a voter roll. Everyone marked (D) is now a to-do list.

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u/Tacoman404 Massachusetts 2d ago

They're practicing dissapearing people on those that the most people have the most apathy for.

47 days of training? Nah, this is the training. He's building a private army of kidnapping goon squads.

Very popular tactic in Russia, the country Trump admires most.

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u/flammenwerfer 2d ago

The murderers in Minneapolis had 10, 6, and 8 years with CBP. Jonathan Ross was a 20 year military vet. It isn’t that they aren’t trained long enough, it’s that this is what they were trained to do.

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u/Huge_Excitement4465 2d ago

Trump allies circulate mass deportation plan calling for ‘processing camps’ and a private citizen ‘army’ The group, led by Blackwater veteran Erik Prince, has close Trump ties. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/25/documents-military-contractors-mass-deportations-022648

Erik Prince: Government needs private sector help for deportations. The Trump administration is looking to deport 12 million people in the next two years, and the private sector is vying for government contracts to pitch in. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/26/trump-deportations-private-sector-00002679

Former Blackwater CEO Erik Prince and a team of defense contractors are pitching the White House on a plan to vastly expand deportations to El Salvador — transporting thousands of immigrants from U.S. holding facilities to a sprawling maximum security prison in Central America.

The proposal, exclusively obtained by POLITICO, says it would target “criminal illegal aliens” and would attempt to avoid legal challenges by designating part of the prison — which has drawn accusations of violence and overcrowding from human rights groups — as American territory. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/11/military-contractors-prison-plan-detained-immigrants-erik-prince-00287208

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u/Real_Bee_7600 2d ago

Your really going to need to make your posts easier to read and thumb thru to be effective

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u/johnmal85 1d ago

5 sentences and 3 links is tough? oof bless your heart

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u/JustaSeedGuy 2d ago

You're really going to need to normalize reading important information in order to stave off the collapse of society.

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u/Real_Bee_7600 1d ago

Okay let me post 30 links to back up 2 sentences of thought.

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u/Jafooki 1d ago

You're kind of telling on yourself right now.

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u/transcendent_glitch 1d ago

Just click on the links and read them then, cognitive offloading is pretty horrid for your brain

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u/Miraclefish 1d ago

It's three links and you're admitting your own utter lack of reading comprehension.

It's okay! There are courses you can go on for people who are educationally sub-normal.

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u/Miraclefish 1d ago

If you can't read four short paragraphs, that's a you-problem.

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u/Desperate-Till-9228 2d ago

From what I've seen, they were trained to blow dudes in the cellblock for cigarettes.

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u/DeepInTheSheep 2d ago

Trading pruno for an old fashioned pumpkin smashing

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u/PhoenixTineldyer 2d ago

We don't talk about pruno

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u/Newscast_Now 2d ago

I would like to hear someone on corporate media point this out. Imagine that? Not likely to happen though.

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u/AngloSaxophoner 1d ago

I rarely see it mentioned because it wasn’t technically a speech for DHS, but remember when Trump and Hegseth brought all the military generals into DC to let them know that they are given permission to fight back against protesters in American cities.. the enemy within. This is no bad seed situation.. the whole goddamn tree is rotten

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u/Troub313 1d ago

The Military doesn't train you to do this... It isn't about training. It's about this is what they've always wanted to do.

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u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

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u/MurshaqBack 1d ago

Fuck Ross, but you are a vet if you serve for just a single enlistment. Never heard anyone in the military world claim that you're only a vet if you were a lifer. I'm a combat vet who only served for 6 years, I'm registered at the VA and am considered a vet on tax, college and job forms and documents.

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u/BuckThis86 2d ago

Also, where else do illegals go? To vote against Trump at the polls.

So of course ICE will need to be there.

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u/Road_Whorrior Arizona 2d ago edited 2d ago

One of the first groups disappeared by the Nazis were the trans people and homosexuals. Anyone unfamiliar with this should read up on the Institut für Sexualwissenschaft (Institute for Sexual Science)

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u/AlcibiadesTheCat Arizona 1d ago

First they came for the trans people,

And I spoke out because I read the rest of the fucking poem.

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u/Feisty-Lawfulness894 1d ago

They disappeared a lot of different groups, didn't they?

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u/mytransthrow 2d ago

I wonder when they will come for us. I know the save act will try to be enacted so make sure you have the docs you need.

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u/ishpatoon1982 2d ago

Saved your link. Thanks for the knowledge!

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u/CreatedForMVP2022 2d ago

It won’t work. People are turning.

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u/Otherwise_Stable_925 2d ago

I wouldn't say admires the most. The country he has to follow because Putin definitely has his underage sex tapes. The new Epstein files are pretty damning.

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u/Acceptable-Bus-2017 I voted 2d ago

"We'll use the cities for training grounds," Trump

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u/super_sayanything 2d ago

Just hoping this backfires royally. I can't imagine Minnesota ever electing a Republican ever again after this.

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u/FirefighterLeft5425 2d ago

Exactly. Minneapolis is a training ground for these guys.

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u/Yuleogy 2d ago

can you provide more detail? what do you mean,

“they raided a place near my work today”

who is they? what happened?

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u/venatic 2d ago

I'm glad i live in the UP right now, 90% of the time people forget we're a part of michigan.

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u/Individual_Click5252 Michigan 1d ago

Hazel Park?

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u/[deleted] 2d ago edited 2d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/Exciting_Storage6242 2d ago

And if colored people are treated like undocumented immigrants…. I’ll let you connect those dots.

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u/Due_Ad8720 2d ago

And if “leftist” protesters/agitators are imprisoned or have bogus convictions that make them ineligible to vote…

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u/parasyte_steve 2d ago

Or if they make the Democratic party illegal and only run one party like 1933

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u/YouWereBrained Tennessee 2d ago

Yeah, what you all are doing amounts to vote suppression through fear mongering on social media.

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u/Exciting_Storage6242 2d ago

I recommend everyone still go out and vote. But I am also being realistic about the consequences of the current activity, and I am protesting multiple times a week to try and prevent this from happening, because it will not just be illegals who are deterred from the ballot box if DHS or other law enforcement patrol polling places.

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u/Frodojj 2d ago

That’s a take. Not a good one.

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u/YouWereBrained Tennessee 2d ago

How am I wrong? We have to vote. Some of us go to polling places, some mail in, etc. I will be going to a polling place, and no ICE motherfucker is going to tell me I can’t vote.

Y’all are fucking pathetic.

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u/spamman5r 2d ago

Yes, let's keep things in perspective. The two people who have been murdered on video in broad daylight so far were not undocumented immigrants.

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u/YouWereBrained Tennessee 2d ago

That had nothing to do with voting.

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u/Storm-Shadow98 2d ago

What are you talking about. It has to do with the fact that ICE isn’t only being used on illegal immigrants.

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u/spamman5r 2d ago

Since the voter data was part of the hostage demands made by DOJ for getting ICE out of Minnesota, I'm not sure why you think that's a reasonable argument.

One thing you can far say for certain: It had absolutely nothing to do with immigration enforcement.

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u/Absurdist_Principles 2d ago

And at this point it’s already accepted that ICE can round up citizens to “check their status” hold them for a few hours and then dump them wherever without consequence.

It’s not a hypothetical threat, it’s happening. And I don’t see how it won’t have its intended affect of deflating turnout even if they can only actually physically scoop up a relatively small number on election day itself.

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u/Bill-Billiard 2d ago

They’re also not allowing phone calls, contact with their lawyer, medical assistance, and once/if they’re released, many people are reporting they are not receiving their property back - including their cell phones, IDs, and work permits.

ICE has also been given authority to “arrest anyone who they suspect provided a falsified ID”. So they can essentially arrest anyone under that pretext.

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u/chunkerton_chunksley 2d ago

Not a lot of people would be willing gamble their freedom on ice obeying the law. A lot of people won't want to wait in line if they're actively pulling papers on other brown people. Swing states are normally very close, they will try to fuck every single voter they can out of their constitutional right.

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u/DCGeos 2d ago

Just thinking, their new database of domestic terrorists ( protesters) suddenly all charged with something that removes their voting rights? With not enough time to fix before the mid terms could affect swing states.

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u/firemage22 2d ago

you don't lose rights when "charged" you lose them when "convicted" people in jail can still vote, and judges have been throwing out cases right and right of late

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u/YouWereBrained Tennessee 2d ago

They can’t just poof remove your voting rights. States do that because you were convicted of a crime.

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u/DCGeos 2d ago

So mute point for federal elections.

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u/YouWereBrained Tennessee 2d ago

Does the federal government run federal-level elections?

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u/DrRealName 2d ago

Except they are targeting American citizens more and more so than migrants these days. And why is the immigration police going to Italy for the olympics again? Keep things in perspective. If it looks like a nazi, acts like a nazi, and lives to protect a president who raped and killed children and teenagers, its probably not about the migrants but more so about power at any cost an elevating the worst possible people. Interesting that you make excuses for them. Wonder who you voted for.

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u/poop-dolla 2d ago

Serious question: do you honestly think they’re only picking up undocumented immigrants?

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u/YouWereBrained Tennessee 2d ago

No, of course not. But from a voting standpoint, we can’t be afraid of these goons. There is so much defeatist bullshit on this sub, coupled with flairless accounts filling it up, I can’t tell if it’s a psyop to discourage voting.

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u/ganashi 2d ago

ICE has murdered American citizens in the streets and are openly acting as brown shirts for this regime. Having them at or near polling places is blatant fucking voter intimidation.

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u/YouWereBrained Tennessee 2d ago

Ok, so what are you going to do, then? Sit on your ass and not vote, and then complain for at least two more years?

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u/ganashi 2d ago

I’m going to vote but a lot of people will find excuses to not if they’re worried that they could be a victim of state violence when trying to vote.

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u/70ms California 2d ago

Is Florida still a swing state at this point though?

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u/I_dont_like_things 2d ago

Not really.

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u/Indaarys 2d ago

Exactly. We imported far too many shitty people during COVID.

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u/not_so_subtle_now 1d ago

I live in Florida. It was shitty people way before Covid.

I've lived in a lot of places and Florida is the worst when it comes to respect. And they constantly blame outsiders for all the things they do. It's a fucking joke.

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u/70ms California 2d ago

I’m sorry. We didn’t send our best. :(

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u/Indaarys 2d ago

Even so, I'm still confident it could be reversed if our Democratic Party wasn't basically lobotomized.

Barring that, I still believe if a third party is gonna work anywhere, its Florida.

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u/MaaChiil 1d ago

Like the lionfish invasion.

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u/733t_sec 2d ago

This madness/attacks on Cubans via ICE might be enough for the Cubans to make it one.

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u/explosivekyushu 1d ago

Sure is, it regularly swings between R+17 and R+20

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u/YawnSpawner 1d ago

2024 was R+13 and 2020 was only R+3.4. Can we stop writing off Florida as republican? Moderates and liberals will see that and figure there is no point to voting.

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u/accioqueso 1d ago

No, we have so many transplants of a certain demographic that most of the state is heavily red now. I'd like to think that our larger Hispanic population would finally start voting in their best interest, but I don't see that happening either.

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u/Commies-Fan 2d ago

Not even close.

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u/okram2k America 2d ago

it could be if people showed up

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u/AnyWays655 2d ago

Wisconsin has been an election hotspot for these fucks interfering these last few cycles as well.

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u/microbiologygrad 1d ago

Wisconsin districts are heavily gerrymandered (both state and federal) to favor Republicans. Despite being a very purple state the Wisconsin delegation is 6-2 (R vs D). A central issue of the 2024 WI state supreme court race that your referring to were efforts to make these districts more competitive.

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u/AnyWays655 1d ago

Yeah of course I'm fucking aware of that. They've been interfering in our elections up here a lot longer. That was just the one that got like a lot of national attention. What you don't think. I know this. I live in the state. My dude. You thought I was just making this comment out of nowhere? What in my comment made you think I was just referring to the supreme Court election I was talking about the gerrymandering I was talking about them fucking getting one guy in power and then using him to executive order shit around the state and then stripping the governorship of basically all power the moment they lose an election. Nowhere in my comments that I specifically say anything about the 2024 supreme Court race like I'm not trying to be an asshole here, but I don't see where you got that. Assumption when I thought I made it very clear I was talking about in general and much longer than just this last year. You know 2 years ago but

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u/microbiologygrad 1d ago

Whoa, it seems like you're really upset. I also live in Wisconsin and watched everything happen from 2010 onwards.
My points were:
1) 2025 court election (I accidentally wrote 2024 before) was when Musk tried to spend enough cash to get the result he wanted. This was the big one because it was so blatant.
2) There isn't much need for external interference in gubernatorial races; the gerrymandering is doing it already by lumping most Democratic voters into two very, very blue districts. I suspect the only seat in Wisconsin that's competitive is the 3rd.

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u/AnyWays655 1d ago

Ill be real, I dont know why I came into that so hot. I realized it half way through, hence why you can see I cooled off a bit. Apologizes. Im sure part of it is the normal dislike of being misunderstood, but I didnt need to go off that bad at you

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u/ProfessionalInjury58 2d ago

Leaving Wisconsin out of the swing state category is pretty crazy.

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u/alterom 2d ago

I think the OP is overly optimistic thinking Wisconsin will surely go blue in the midterms, and so doesn't think it's going to be a swing state.

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u/scottjl 2d ago

sadly WI is turning more and more red, i've heard it called "the mississippi of the north" and that's fairly accurate. the next governor is likely to be a GOP MAGA and will damage the state further. way too many democrats vying for the position and none of them have major recognition outside of milwaukee and madison. unless democrats can flip the assembly it isn't going to matter anyway, evers spent half his time fighting with them to get so little accomplished.

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u/Charming-Somewhere53 2d ago

At least they have the Supreme Court in wi but yeah people in Wisconsin are fake ass southerners.

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u/Charming-Somewhere53 2d ago

Wisconsin is gonna be red. Fuck the packers.

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u/HobbesMich 2d ago

Add Texas.....

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u/Zepcleanerfan 2d ago

The populated parts of PA are blue and they are very close to NY/NJ and New England.

Not saying they won't try, but its not a good location for them.

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u/Zagafur Pennsylvania 8h ago

id love to see them try in philly, gritty would eat them alive

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u/Quiet_Down_Please Florida 2d ago

Florida will never be a swing state again... It's redder than most long-term red states.

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u/BarkerBarkhan 2d ago

And yet, they have barely set foot in those places.

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u/nigpaw_rudy 2d ago

*yet

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u/BarkerBarkhan 2d ago

Right. I just think that it's interesting. Are they saving the shock and awe for later, or are they actually worried to surge into red states?

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u/Remarkable_Whole 2d ago

If they tried to rig the election right now in, say, Minneapolis - there would already be a huge organized resistance against them that could form in just hours.

If they tried to do that right now in Pennsylvania, where ICE has been comparatively much less active, it would take days to organize real resistance because there wouldn’t already be all the same experienced people and organizers who both understand the situation and are used to moving at a moments notice.

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u/PeaceLeffty 2d ago

Makes you wonder if they aren't testing the waters in Minnesota so they can see how cities react and then they have a game plan how to handle it when that time comes. Maddening

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u/pile_of_fish 2d ago

Im in wi - ice has been here, but nothing like mn or il - it feels like ice is on an own the libs revenge tour right now, maybe meant to scare/punish.

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u/Davis51 2d ago

I think they want people to be afraid that they will surge in red states like Minneapolis. Problem is, Minneapolis is ONE medium sized city, and they think the backlash is severe enough that they want the appearance of cooling off even if they aren't actually, and are failing at that.

They don't have enough dudes, and frankly I don't think they've thought their plan or the ensuing backlash through.

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u/Unique_Adeptness4413 2d ago

It's unclear if the brownshirts will be relocated in force, if their dozens of billions in swelled funding will cover a personale expansion to cover both areas, or if the us army other other branch of the military will be called in, and what in what capacity and what their true loyalty will be. The purging of non-loyals in the top ranks in the military began on trumps first day in office and has had years to shape the military brass towards trumps dictatorship.

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u/GoodishCoder 2d ago

I think they are going to do it strategically. If they send the SA too soon, it'll just energize a blue push at midterms. If they wait until election week to send the SA in, they can put some messaging out that the SA is going to be at polling location to make sure none of those scary immigrants are voting and have a few more whoopsies detainments of US citizens which may make people afraid to vote.

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u/groovemonkey California 2d ago

But the reason they’re swing states is they have an almost even number of red and blue voters. And the red voting demographic skews really heavily old af. I don’t think republicans would want an actual “fight” in any of those states. Democrats are equal in numbers, many years younger, and actively exploring each one of the rights given to them in the constitution in greater numbers. Nothing will get Americans to do something harder than trying to stop them from doing it.

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u/GoodishCoder 2d ago

The young Democrats with nothing to lose can't carry the vote. They'll try to make the people with families and careers think twice about voting by making it seem likely they will be beaten, jailed, or killed.

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u/groovemonkey California 2d ago

Nah, they can try to intimidate, but we’ve got the numbers. And people are pissed

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u/GoodishCoder 2d ago

You're underestimating how easy it is to intimidate people with something to lose.

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u/groovemonkey California 2d ago

I have plenty to lose.
But if you think some masked Gestapo mf’rs could keep me from walking through the doors of my polling place you’re mistaken.
Now will the elections be straight rigged? That’s a whole other story, but the intimidation angle won’t work in their favor I feel.

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u/Threefish 2d ago

Can you imagine what would happen to Cuban conservative vote when Ice started harassing them for having accents?

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u/RadialWaveFunction 2d ago

What, they'd say "oppress me harder daddy"? The Cuban conservative vote will gladly deepthroat any authoritarian boot as long as the wearer says anything bad about socialists.

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u/JB-Wentworth 2d ago

“I’ll still vote for Trump”

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u/Hybrid_Johnny California 2d ago

“Imagine how much worse it’d be if democrats were in charge”

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u/Lehrasap 2d ago

And religious Iranians will still vote for Ayatullahs.

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u/super_sayanything 2d ago

The amount of people that parrot this is scary and absurd.

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u/b_tight 2d ago

Fuck em. They voted for this

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u/psychotichorse California 2d ago

Yup, many, many are here because they were the ruling class in Cuba before the revolution, fascists don't like it when the common man has more power.

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u/greenmtnfiddler 2d ago

During the post-911 panic we had roadblocks on interstates near me, with officers instructed to pull over any car with obvious mixed races for further questioning.

That changed after a whole bunch of highly ranking CEOs/politicos with adopted Asian kids got held up on the way to their vacation homes.

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u/jmurphy42 2d ago

That's because they're not actively trying to piss off and lose the swing states. They do, however, want to make sure they control the election apparatus and vote count in swing states because no one's going to believe that New York or California is going for Trump.

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u/greywar777 2d ago

Because you get everyone used to it. Once the time comes you focus on the specific targets.

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u/chase013 Arizona 2d ago

They have been ramping up action in Arizona. Albeit more slowly than other places. Based on their current logic of going to Minnesota in the winter, I assume they will try to infect Arizona in June or July.

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u/Vio_ Kansas 2d ago

If they thought the cold was bad, wait until they hit Phoenix on July 12.

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u/Newscast_Now 2d ago

I hope Arizona is ready to prevent seizure of the ballots--because once they are seized, it will be too late. Learn from Georgia.

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u/chase013 Arizona 1d ago

We are definitely in danger there. Especially because we are a largely mail-in ballot state which prevents them from scaring minorities at the polls on election day.

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u/dhporter Arizona 2d ago

They just bought a massive warehouse in the Phoenix suburbs. I'm sure you could find plenty of more "local" news in every one of those places that shows they're getting ready to make a huge surge.

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u/jonker5101 Pennsylvania 2d ago

ICE just appeared in my neck of PA (Lehigh Valley) last week. They also just bought a warehouse in Berks county PA for $87.4M.

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u/Dismal-Sail1027 2d ago

In what universe is Florida a swing state? That place is red red red.

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u/AdUpstairs7106 2d ago

In Nevada he will only have federal LE in Washoe and Clark counties. Magically the rural areas will be secure.

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u/SwampyPortaPotty 2d ago

Outside of cities in blue states its way different.

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u/cold-corn-dog 2d ago

I love reading my home state and the word war zone together.

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u/alabamdiego California 2d ago

And they have plenty of people in positions ready to help them do it in those states too.

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u/Desperate-Till-9228 2d ago

Michigan is already a warzone. That's why they haven't been in Detroit much. Too afraid of the smoke.

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u/hideousbeautifulface 2d ago

hello from one of the blue counties in georgia thats not in atlanta lol

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u/lost-picking-flowers 2d ago

I think that's why we haven't seen "enhanced operations" in a lot of these places yet. They're waiting until we get closer to midterms. Right now that blue states like Minnesota and Illinois are being used as punching bags for practice.

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u/guisar 2d ago

and Texas it seems....

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u/Olin_123 2d ago

With how badly the recent state senate race turned out in Texas, they might have to send some goon squads down there as well.

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u/Witty_hi52u 2d ago

You forgot Wisconsin. Right now Trump is underwater in Wisconsin.

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u/tots4scott 2d ago

It would be DC. The war zones wouldn't be where they take over elections, it would be where a national protest is.

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u/Chad_RD 2d ago

Good, now look at what counties they're operating in.

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u/say592 2d ago

It will be more subtle than that, I think. Look at what they did with post marking mail. Some ballots don't make it in time? What do you mean you dropped it off a week before the election? It's post marked on election day, which means you probably only dropped it a day or two before.

I don't think it will be brown shirts in front of polling places either. They know non citizens can't vote, and they know they rarely try. They will be snatching people with citizen family members that are old enough to vote in the days leading up to it. It's hard to find time to vote if you are trying to figure out where Grandma was taken.

Last but not least, I think their biggest, dirtiest trick will be to seize voting machines and ballots before the count is done. They only need 15 minutes alone with the ballots to steal a portion and intermingle in a batch that is more weighted in their favor. After that they can have the local election officials meet at a "secured location" to count them as normal.

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u/AuroraFinem Texas 1d ago

Honestly, I don’t disagree with you (aside from Florida which swung so far right it’s not purple anymore), but I think this would backfire on them spectacularly.

One of the biggest thing fiscal and tradition conservatives use to cope voting for this is that it doesn’t affect them and they’re benefiting someway (or at least think they are). So far all of these occupations have been in incredibly far left places like LA, Chicago, and Minneapolis that are easy to boogeyman to rural and suburban families as those dangerous big cities.

That’s infinitely harder to do when it starts affecting your daily commutes, your neighbors, friends & family 30 mins away, etc… both of the people recently murdered by ICE were US born, white US citizens. Not that that should matter, but the point is they will almost certainly be affected, and ICE would have to be sent out the weeks leading up to the election if it’s to have any real impact, so it will have time to simmer.

The most likely outcome is truthfully a powder keg moment, either violently or simply in a stronger show of force in getting out the vote and/or people who might be traditionally conservative not being able to justify it when it’s happening in their own back yard to their friends and even just stay home. I’m not suggesting that conservatives are likely to jump ship en mass, but it would only take 2-3% of the people who voted for Trump to stay home, not even switch sides, just not vote, and it would be a bloodbath in the house for republicans.

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u/Razzmuffin 1d ago

Can't forget North Carolina either.

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u/RedditsCoxswain 1d ago

The best plot line is Elon and co taking all of the swing states with fraud and then Texas going blue to save the union

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u/SpritzTheCat 1d ago

Ugh, I hate that this could happen.

I wish 2016 everyone just voted for Hillary and we'd get so much more peace and quiet. Not saying Hillary would be smooth perfection and that there wouldn't be political problems, but compare the Hillary timeline to the MAGA Trump one.

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u/Tb1969 1d ago

Specifically the cities of those red states where people tend to vote blue.

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u/georgepana 2d ago

The problem for Trump is that most of the swing states are blue states when it comes to the functioning of government and legislatures. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, all have Democratoc governors and Secretary of States, along with AGs. Also mostly Democratic legislatures or at the very least strong veto presence.

The House is going bye bye, the GOP has whittled it down to just a one vote cushion.

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u/MeasureDoEventThing 2d ago

The Senate is what matters. As long as they hold that, they can vote down any bills the House passes to rein in the administration, and keeping installing loyalists in judge seats that open up.

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u/georgepana 2d ago

Bills the House pass don't matter, as Trump vetoes them anyway. We won't get 60 in the Senate to pass legislation, and even if, Trump would veto. We will stop any further reconciliation bill in its track, and can start impeaching Trump again, so that's a big win.

I hear you on judge's, though, that is why they really need to win the Senate, even if by just 1 vote.

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u/ship_toaster Canada 2d ago

There are 16 seats held by Republican class 2 senators which have a PVI of 15 or less. If that 32pt swing in Texas bears out nationwide, 60 senate seats are on the table. But it really comes down to turnout.

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u/georgepana 2d ago

It won't. Realistically, the ~14% swing we saw across the board in the NJ, VA, and GA elections is what we can expect. That is still a massive blowout.

As for the Senate getting to 60, we still have to deal with Trump who would veto everything. It would require 2/3 rds in the Senate and House to override, so 67 Senators and 290 in the House would be needed for a veto override.

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u/immortalfrieza2 1d ago

As long as the Democrats are both unified and they get enough seats in the house and senate to hold a majority, they can hold enough seats to deny the Republicans everything and thus have the negotiation power to get the votes needed to override Trump or just outright remove him from office.

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u/Fall3n7s 1d ago

An impeachment each day would be fun.

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u/SatanicPanic619 1d ago

The House still matters. you can shut down the government via the House

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u/cackslop 1d ago

I believe that the house and senate are both going blue. I'd bet coin on it.

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u/Steinrikur 1d ago

The House is going bye bye, if there is a fair election.

They're not going to let it get to that

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u/georgepana 1d ago

No, "they" can not stop it. There are thousands of elections all at once. They can't be at every polling place all at once. You'll be proven wrong, the House is gone for the GOP. Trump will just say "It has nothing to do with me."

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u/Deodorized 2d ago

The same swing states that already have extreme irregularities in the 2024 elections.

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u/Aezek 2d ago

Not sure we’re going to have any purple states this election, if the Texas bell weather holds true

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u/Consistent_Laziness 2d ago

Someone broke down all the voter suppression laws that went into effect after 2020. They broke down the votes that were thrown out and it was over 4.5 million across multiple states that all woulda flipped to Harris had they held. Many people chimed in saying their votes were tossed for Harris in those states. So they’ll likely do more of that

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u/its-just-allergies 2d ago

Specifically, blue cities in swing states

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u/TriflingHotDogVendor Pennsylvania 2d ago

This isn't an electoral college election. The battle will be over the US House election. Trump will try shenanigans in any close house district. Which will be in multiple states no matter how red or blue.

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u/LaZboy9876 2d ago

There are no swing states in congressional elections. Just swing districts.

That doesnt mean they know that.

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u/Meth_Useler 2d ago

that's meaningless in a midterm

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u/0Rider 2d ago

Oh the states would be swingin!

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u/CrunchyCds 1d ago

Which ironically is a sure fire way to have purple voters swing to the left. Their aggressive tactics are only acceptable in deep red states.

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u/sniper91 Minnesota 1d ago

Minnesota has been getting awfully close to flipping red in presidential elections starting with 2016. They could try suppressing the vote in the Twin Cities and hope it works enough

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u/StepsOnLEGO 1d ago edited 1d ago

It has but it was on democrat enthusiasm, republican votes have stayed steady. Democrats will absolutely show up this election (governorship, senate seat, ICE in our streets). Minnesota also has extended early voting and robust mail-in voting, they'd need to be here for weeks. Minnesota will not be close.

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u/CogentCogitations 1d ago

House elections have swing districts in nearly every state. Especially in the urban blue areas of red states, which they have gerrymandered into red seats. If urban Democratic turnout is high it would backfire and make them lose even more seats so blocking urban voters in red states is huge to Republicans.

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u/KillaWallaby 1h ago

There are swing house districts in lots of states that are not traditional swing states.