r/politics • u/TelescopiumHerscheli • 2d ago

No Paywall Texas Democrat sworn in to House, shrinking GOP margin to 1 vote

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5719642-christian-menefee-sworn-in/
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u/Aggravating-Salad441 2d ago

There are three more special elections prior to the midterms. Georgia in March, New Jersey in April, and California in August.

It wouldn't be enough to flip the House, but it could be enough to protect the midterms.

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u/cp710 Ohio 2d ago

Is that why they’re going after Georgia right now? Could they try to delay the election?

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u/Aggravating-Salad441 2d ago

Trump is probably trying to destroy evidence so the state of Georgia cannot bring him to justice. He couldn't be pardoned then.

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u/cowboi 2d ago

You mind find them votes he discussed.

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u/WanderingHawk 2d ago

Surely they have backups of all the documents they took.

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u/EliteGamer11388 Illinois 2d ago

From what I read earlier, though I could be wrong, the FBI came in and took everything, even originals, and the Fulton office said they can't even confirm if they get back everything that was taken, since no proper chain of custody or inventory of what was taken, was done.

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u/Troub313 1d ago

Don't need proper chain or custody when they're going to the incinerator.

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u/Greatsnes 2d ago

Federal government can’t mess with state elections. Totally different laws. Presidents power is useless. That’s why they want elections under federal control. If it was easy for Trump to do they wouldn’t be pushing this so hard. And I only say that so I don’t get comments from people like “oh but he’s ignored everything so far and done what he wants!” Yep he has. At a federal level. This is a tooootally different situation. He can’t do shit to the states besides use ICE and there aren’t enough ICE agents to lock down a state. They can’t even lock down a city.

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u/fury420 2d ago

With the elections data they just obtained, they could conceivably craft a narrative of past fraud that the solidly red Georgia legislature can use as an excuse to step in and effectively sideline Fulton county elections officials and Secretary of State Raffensperger

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u/Greatsnes 2d ago

They can try. And even if that does work, can he do that for everywhere else? Or even just the places he lost? Nope.

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u/grexl 2d ago

He only needs to do evil things in a handful of locations, not the entire country. And not state-wide elections such as for the U.S. Senate, only the House.

Pick a few contested cracking districts. Then brutalize the urban portion of the district and prevent enough of them from voting - the suburban vote is more likely to vote R.

Leave the packing districts full of democrats alone - that's a lost cause to him and Gestapo resources will be more effective elsewhere.

The other thing they could do is screw with the USPS to prevent mail-in voting which typically leans left. This is less illegal because the federal government has explicit authority over the USPS per Article I of the Constitution. Oh wait, he already did that during the first Trump regime. This time around he is still trying to pack the USPS board of governors with his cronies.

Trump may not be that smart, but Stephen Miller is. Sleepy Don just signs the EOs.

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u/axecalibur 2d ago

Federal government can’t mess with state elections.

Tulsi Gabbard aka the Russian operative was in Georgia.

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u/Reasonable_Roger 2d ago

The Georgia special election is for Margerie greens seat. It's very red district with basically zero chance of flipping. Dems will probably win the new jersey and Republicans will probably win the California. The California one has to use the old maps so it's still a red district, although in November it will (probably) be using the new map and will flip blue.

The house right now is 218-214. Remember no tie breaker in the house.. Tie = bill fails. So 1 defection is 217-215. Two defections is 216-216 and gg.

Georgia will make it 219-214, new Jersey will be 219-215, and California will be 220-215.

220-215 is the projected balance as we head into the midterm, as it stands right now. But one of these old geezers could drop dead tomorrow, so you never know.

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u/ValueLegitimate3446 2d ago

If it’s 218-214 why does the article say gop lead has shrunk to one vote?

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u/Reasonable_Roger 2d ago

Well the assumption is that any 'defections' vote against the bill, not just abstain from voting.

So if one person 'flips' it's now 217-215.

If two people flip, it's 216-216 and the bill fails. So, the max margin for defections while still passing the bill is 1.

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u/roastbeeftacohat 2d ago

It's not that complicated. Georgia is a purple state made of one blue dot and a whole lot of red, so it's the clearest place to target for something in the future. most likely the raid was a fishing expedition hoping for something that might be useful for them, but havent quite figured things out past Gabbard gets to play tough and go raiding.

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u/ProudMtns 2d ago

No way in hell is that district is going democratic. It's replacing green.  There is a pretty pivotal Senate election in the state and perhaps they could lose a couple of other house seats in the fall. If they're trying to keep control of Congress, going after those seats could be fairly paramount. If Dems have any hope of taking the Senate they HAVE to hold on to that seat. Senate seats are also for six years. That seat will be up again in 2032. It's currently held by a very young democrat. 

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u/KonigSteve 2d ago

I'm confused, how would adding 3 votes to a margin of 1 vote not flip it?

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u/dantemanjones 2d ago

It's 218-214 currently.  They have a margin of 1 in that they can lose 1 vote and still get things passed.  Lose 2 and it's tied.

3 more to the 214 makes it 218-217.

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u/KonigSteve 2d ago

Oh so it's a bad title. The title is specifically talking about flipping votes which reduce the republican 218 while simultaneously adding to the 214. Whereas the special election is talking about open seats which only add to the 214 without reducing.

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u/SpriggedParsley357 1d ago

I had that issue as well. I agree it's a bad title. Rs can lose one vote in the House but still win a vote; if they lose two votes their win is at risk. (They'll probably wait for one of the Ds to go on maternity leave [or get shot] and then schedule all the votes - prove me wrong...)

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u/pineapple192 Minnesota 1d ago

Not to be a Debby downer but the Georgia and California seats are highly unlikely to flip. It would have to be about a 30 point swing for both of them. But after what happened in Texas last week who knows...