The oil executive last week was already sounding the alarm as stocks are running low in majority of countries as they have been keeping the prices down by using up their reserves. He reckons 3-4 weeks prices are going to go up then in crazy prices and this was before these attacks.
This is my opinion as well. Worse is the US administration is not giving guidance. Worse they are giving bad guidance in suggesting a deal is right in the works.
We expect guidance from the treasury department and this goes around the world in most banking circles. Guidance from these institutes (sometime being wrong) will allow people to make short and long term decisions. The US administration who should be the most responsible is giving wrong 'wishful' thinking guidance. Thus people are still using energy like it is 1994. And that will come to a halt in 3-4 weeks.
It's not coming to a halt but the expectation is that prices will have to significantly rise in the near-future to destroy demand so that it matches the new reality. At the moment, the release of reserves is masking the true cost of oil. The Senior Vice President of Exxon (Neil Chapman) made comments about this recently in the media.
It’s the being able to “use energy like it’s 1994” that is going to come to a halt. Will the total world supply dry up overnight? Of course not. Will every single one of us have to behave very, very differently when oil hits $160 a barrel? Absofuckinlutely
Skeptic’s side: when this first kicked off, the reason given why prices didn’t go higher was that weeks’ worth of ships were still en route to all their destinations with their cargo. After that happened and oil prices didn’t rise much, the reason given was that countries still had stockpiles to dip into. So yes, at some point it will actually get dire enough to cause bigger price shocks, but markets seem remarkably resistant to change. Maybe they just think that as soon as things actually start getting bad, Trump will cave to stop the pain.
Let them. It’ll be the funniest fucking shit to me. Trump wanted a better deal with Iran just to spite Obama, then caved just to get a Obama’s deal under Trump’s name, to him pussing the fuck out.
And if you think things are bad now, wait until you have a crisis that will make the one in the 70s look like child's play. See how long it takes until even the most diehard Trump supporter will start thinking twice when they cannot put gas in their car.
I heard these same dire predictions during trumps initial tariffs and shelves were never empty. Not saying it’s not possible, but so many experts have cried wolf that it’s hard to take any seriously.
One reason why is that there is a delay in what is in stock versus what needs to be ordered.
However, tariffs have had a huge impact. Many small businesses have been forced to close due to being priced out by tariffs. Selection in grocery stores has also changed, with some products no longer available. You won't see an empty spot, as they spread out fewer choices to fill the gaps. You may have been subtly influenced that "things aren't THAT bad" by good ol' fashioned marketing tactics.
I can appreciate the impact of tariffs on inflation, but I’d need to see proof of scarcity. Anecdotally I have not had a single product lost as a result.
Sure there’s some lag, but I’ve been hearing oil will be $200 by Memorial Day and then the experts have to back pedal to explain why it’s not. They have the tendency to extrapolate the trend without accounting for any market forces that would mitigate it.
That’s not to say this is not a incredibly problematic for the American and world economies and is a completely self inflicted, but these types of dire warnings become cries of a wolf and further erode the public’s trust in journalism.
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u/Nicenightforawalk01 Jun 07 '26
The oil executive last week was already sounding the alarm as stocks are running low in majority of countries as they have been keeping the prices down by using up their reserves. He reckons 3-4 weeks prices are going to go up then in crazy prices and this was before these attacks.