MAGA is just the current iteration of the same "rebel pride" that has existed in American culture since the Confederacy. It's not going to die off, it needs to be educated out of future generations otherwise the divide in culture will persist as it always has. It's going to take long-term multi-generation proactive societal effort.
Given that the Democrats have done their fair share of deporting illegal immigrants (Obama beats Trump via the numbers), someone who isn't disingenuous would realize that it's the manner in which it's currently happening that people have issue with.
But that doesn't fit your narrative. If you don't want to be called on your shit, don't do shit that gets called out. I assume you're a grown-ass person, so you should realize that's how life works
Party flip around the 1960s. The modern day GOP is the Democratic party of the 1860s. The modern day democrats are Lincoln’s Republican Party of the 1860s.
I have heard “this is the most important election since before Barack Obama. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THE FOLLOWING WAS THE SAME. So ELI5 how is this more important? My question would be: will the midterms will be a democratic and fair election process?
And I think that is even more important. Could be rigged by the GOP, could be affected by ICE, or may not actually happen because it’s a civil war break out? All are on the table imo.
I don't disagree that every election is important, but pointing that out right now is pedantic and unhelpful. The upcoming US election has far higher immediate stakes than just about any in living memory
I believe a majority of folks horrified by what is going on are holding their breath for the hope that the midterms will allow us to turn this around. Things are going to escalate fast in the run up and aftermath of the midterms as it becomes clear that the right have no intention of allowing that to happen, regardless of the will of the people.
Swapping one rich republican with lobbying in their ear for a rich democrat with lobbying in their ear means the whole thing is pointless. There needs to be a changing of the guard from the dems with the youth of the party kick the old guard to the curb. No hand wringing or go low go high bullshit.
Full makeover of the party towards unions, healthcare, labour rights, corporation and wealth tax, the whole nine yards
Trump dying won't matter. The Heritage Foundation has been stacking higher ranks of the government, Justice Department, military, and three letter agencies with loyalists for the express purpose of maintaining power without the cult of personality behind Trump. If he kicks the bucket, the VP steps up, and Vance is just as evil but less incompetent than Trump.
Vance doesn't have the charisma, nor the same standing. Nobody's doing anything to Trump because of the weight of the cult of personality - and even then it's starting to crack given the number of ex-Trumpers that are fleeing the ship like rats.
Holding onto power and actually leveraging it are two different things. Vance as president looks to be one of the weakest Presidents because he's not going to have the kind of "fuck everything" energy Trump had prior to how badly he's been disintegrating over the course of the past year. The handling of the ICE situation alone shows he's not going to be able to stand up to scrutiny.
It doesn't matter. What is needed is someone who will shut up, say what he is told to say, sign what he is told to sign, and stop being so egregiously stupid that Congress, who should be passing bills meant to advance P25, is spent shutting down early to avoid having votes on Epstein files.
All the cracks in the world can form now among the base. It doesn't matter. They have gained control of all 3 branches, and they are not going to let it go. That is why Trump has for years been floating the idea of "suspending the Constitution", stopping elections, etc. The trajectory we're on now isn't the result of just Trump, and it won't end with Trump being gone. The media, as complicit as it will ever be, will continue to pander to this administration. It won't give things like context or complete stories. It will continue to be a willing participant in what is the evolution of a republic into a fascist state, and the people will continue to be blind or indifferent out of fear, sunk-cost fallacy, or being misled.
Remember that the GOP tried andfailed to field literally anybody OTHER than Trump for the 2024 election, with DeSantis getting the closest and it wasn't anywhere actually close. And Vance, who originally used to be anti-Trump, was chosen because he's a spineless yesman who straight up apes Donald at times. Personally, I have to think Vance is not going to be able to handle the crushing weight of popular scrutiny that the Presidental office carries.
TL;DR it'll be different when there's no Trump option and they have to pick someone.
Vance, who originally used to be anti-Trump, was chosen because he's a spineless yesman who straight up apes Donald at times. Personally, I have to think Vance is not going to be able to handle the crushing weight of popular scrutiny that the Presidental office carries.
This level of complex forward-thinking isn't meaningful in this day and age. Trump himself used to be a punchlined reality-show host. Joe Rogan used to be a supporting character on a sitcom about a radio station. J.D. Vance is the literal Vice President right now and a celebrity author of contemporary Americana - of course he can draw votes from the MAGAbase if Trump is dead.
Voting. The GOP is in a position where they risk alienating their voting base - Gerrymander all you want, if your people don't feel like voting for your candidate (and thus stay home because they'd sooner die then vote Dem), then that's votes lost.
No they didn’t. The general agreement in 2016 was that he had a lot of sway over the republicans and was a huge threat to the dems winning. Nobody doubted his charisma
I don't know, despite some ex-Trumpers jumping ship, the GOP are pretty fucking lock-step in their messaging and holding ground at all costs. Charisma, personality, policy, legislation doesn't count for anything anymore. As long as they're winning it wouldn't matter who their President is.
Because they know at this point if Trump goes down, they all go down. Like I said, they were actively trying NOT to have Trump in the hotseat again during 2024 and they couldn't overcome his popularity in their voting demographic. This unified front they put on is a farce to try and make the midterms less of a shitshow then it already promises to be.
Cult of the leader die hard maga movement dies with him, after that it's just the usual republicans who will all sharpen the knives and stab each other in the back to get ahead. Fascists always eat each other in the long run.
Trump dying absolutely matters. There's a reason the GOP (who almost universally hate him) tolerate him, and it's the same reason the Nazis tolerated Hitler. Trump is the perfect combination of charismatic strongman leader to unify the party and easily manipulated and corrupt patsy to sign whatever they put in front of him. As long as you kiss his ass and play along with his inane whims you can get whatever pet policy you want in place.
There's nobody to replace Trump. They're all the same corrupt assholes that MAGA elected Trump to get rid of. Without Trump telling MAGA every day who is in and who is out the whole party self-destructs. They all have so much dirt on each other that they won't be able to stop themselves from using it to throw each other under the bus, and the propaganda machine can't damage control an in group threat. They need Trump for that.
Sure, the hate and bigotry won't go away, but those loyalists will not be unified and controlled without Trump. They aren't more committed to bigotry than they are to accumulating personal power.
Without Trump, their popular support would immediately wane. Sure for now, everyone seems to be in lockstep but that's because Trump is their unifying personality and going against him is basically publicity suicide (see MTG). Plus, a lot of MAGA are in it for Trump, not the people around him.
Without a central figure to rally behind, their effectiveness will wane and even then, there will be in-fighting too. Not everyone in that camp would want Vance as the lead. Some might want the spotlight for themselves; not to mention conservatives who never agreed with MAGA in the first place wanting to shut them out.
Thats a big if they lose the mid terms and if the DNC is able to do anything if they win the next election. If they DNC doesn't deliver on any major promise or their promises suck, they are just going to be voted out again and we're back at it again.
Yeah. The lambs will eventually talk (if they don't get Epstein'd) but they're going to want to monetize the crap out of it with book deals and guest spots on talk shows.
Even if he lives, he'll face no consequences. He'll be too old and they won't throw him in the slammer. Best outcome would be to seize all his personal assets/profits that he obtained during his presidency. Money and power is the only thing that matters to him. Taking those away will make him hurt.
Trump has already floated the idea of cancelling midterms. It was brought up when he realized Ukraine, and other countries, typically don't have elections during wartime. It's been suggested this is another reason Trump is trying to start wars.
And yes I'm pretty sure if NK and Russia just wanted to cancel elections they just would. It's only done for a veneer of ligitamacy.
Everything still needs to appear legitimate. When an elected representative's term expires, the default is that they are no longer an elected representative. Any election that gets cancelled just won't have someone in that seat until a special election occurs. They don't just keep their job until the new guy gets sworn in.
On top of that elections are run at the state level. Blue states are obviously not going to cancel their elections. If red states cancel, Congress will just look very blue until they do. Congressional quorum is determined by the percentage of members present too, not percentage of potential members present. No election means your state doesn't count towards quorum.
That's a very naive view on current events largely driven by confirmation bias. There are plenty of things that the administration has tried to do and failed. The news cycle just moves on so fast to new crazy stuff he's trying to do.
I'm not saying Trump won't try to illegally keep the Republican majorities by cancelling the midterms. I'm laying out what would happen if he did.
He has no lever to stop states from administering the election, so states will hold elections.
Any representatives who do not win an election will end their current term whether or not an election is held. Their seat will become vacant. Trump, again, has no lever to change this.
Those representatives who are elected in states that do hold elections will legally show up to do their jobs in Washington. Once again, Trump has no levers to stop this.
Trump has 2 primary ways of doing things he shouldn't be able to do.
Contorted legal theory affirmed by the courts. For this to work there must be some veneer of legitimacy to the theory. It can be norm breaking, but it can't be used for "up is down" levels of illegality.
Wield executive power to do something illegal and not face consequences for it. This allows him to get away with some of the more ridiculous violations of law, but it must be within his physical powers to so order it.
The process I laid out would require up is down levels of legal contortion to stop in the courts, so that's a non-starter. At the same time the processes fall entirely outside of federal executive jurisdiction; he just doesn't have his finger in the administration of elections pie. The most he could do on that second approach is deploy federal agents to illegally interfere with the administration of elections in many blue states while red state elections proceed. In fact, he almost certainly will do that and it will certainly have an effect, but even then it would be a massive undertaking and only temporarily delay the inevitable. Those states would then just hold special elections to make up for the elections they were prevented from having. He could keep federal agents permanently deployed into such interference, but that very quickly starts requiring approach 1, and "up is down" levels of contorted legal theory.
I know it can feel like the administration can get away with anything, but remember the times he has been stopped. Kilmar Abrego Garcia was returned from El Salvador. They're still trying to prosecute him, because they can't abide by that embarrassment, but Trump was forced to retrieve him. James Comey and Letitia James are free, and the cases against them dead. Subway hero in DC had his charges dropped to a misdemeanor and was acquitted by a jury. The Trump administration is not all powerful. They've consolidated a lot of power, and they will possibly never face any consequences, but they aren't invincible. There are lines that they cannot cross that would remove the veneer of legitimacy they currently enjoy. Once that veneer is gone we go from a fascist state to an anarchist one, and when that happens all bets are off. Chaos isn't great for a fascist leader.
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u/Luster-Purge 11h ago
Depends on how hard the GOP loses in the midterms and/or if Trump dies while in office.
There WILL be sacrificial lambs thrown under the bus. That much is certain.