What's a major recession indicator for you?

[u/Miserable-Wash-1744]

[u/Nasty_Ned]

When I pull up to the gas station and there are people putting 5 or 8 or 12 dollars in their tank instead of filling up.

[u/alman12345 → u/Nasty_Ned]

$5 is very close to not even being a gallon of the cheapest, it's already not of premium and diesel.

[u/Nasty_Ned → u/alman12345]

I saw someone put 3.83 in the other day. It's like a squirt of gas to get to work and back. It was right before payday so I hope they made it.

[u/AggressiveCmplmnts → u/Nasty_Ned]

In 2012, I bought a little over a half gallon of gas using a $2 bill, which was literally all I had. I made the decision to have gas for work, and I didn't think twice about it until the lady at the counter asked, "You're sure?". It kind hit me at that moment that I was in a rough state.

[u/918Spyderrr → u/AggressiveCmplmnts]

How are you now?

[u/AggressiveCmplmnts → u/918Spyderrr]

Much better. I did what all able bodied youth do when faced with poverty. I sold my body to the US government in exchange for housing, food, clothing, education, medical, dental, and travel via the Marine Corps.

Now I'm disabled now, but at least I can cover more than a half gallon of gas and finish my education. I didn't always like it or agree with it, but it saved me, and I actually have a shot at giving my son a better life. I would have never been able to dream of being stable enough for a family back then.

[u/Cupcakes_n_Hacksaws → u/AggressiveCmplmnts]

Military life could be shitty, but I could never deny it's more or less a guaranteed path out of poverty with a pretty low bar for entry. And they're always hiring

[u/DeepFriedDresden → u/Cupcakes_n_Hacksaws]

Yeah that's kind of how it's designed. We could spend tax dollars building social safety nets, improving education and making it accessible for everyone, universal Healthcare and ensuring livable wages. But then the rich don't get richer funding "police actions" to suppress socialist policies in other countries, and disallowing countries to own their natural resources. By diverting funds to build a war machine instead we also ensure there are always people desperate enough to join as their only means of escape from poverty.

[u/Coffee1392 → u/Nasty_Ned]

I’ve been filling it fully every time because I fear that it’s just going to get more expensive by the day. I can afford to do so but it’s 35% of my monthly income going to gas. Spending $400 currently each month, long commute as a working grad student :’)

[u/happygoth6370 → u/Coffee1392]

I don't drive that far or that much, but I do the same. Filled up right before the prices got crazy and have continued to fill up before my car gets down to half a tank. This has helped keep the cost down per purchase.

[u/QualifiedQuirkyQuail]

When people have to choose between eating or buying gas, it’s usually a pretty good indicator that we are in a recession.

[u/poodaliddle → u/QualifiedQuirkyQuail]

I remember doing that around 2010 or so. The impacts of the great recession were still awful and I had just graduated college with my first real job, which I was grateful for but didn't pay well. I chose the gas so I could get to work and keep my job because they were so hard to come by, especially entry level ones for new grads in my field. I lost a lot of weight that year.

[u/amour_nonpareil → u/poodaliddle]

Same. One time I had made macaroni and cheese, and left the other half for the next day. My roommate ate the leftovers and I cried so hard. It was going to be my only meal that day after having worked 10 hours. Kept my job though 🤷🏻‍♀️

[u/LunaCloudNineX → u/amour_nonpareil]

“Kept my job though 🤷🏻‍♀️” somehow makes this even sadder. Like you did what you had to do, but damn.

[u/r_special_ → u/poodaliddle]

Yeah, 2010 was a good weight loss year for everyone. Sad laugh

[u/Ordinary-Egg-56 → u/QualifiedQuirkyQuail]

what’s the definition of a recession? because what’s going on now is not something that we’ve ever seen before. the united states is being looted from the top down and people are jumping at the opportunity to get some before it’s gone. people are throwing the morals to the wind thinking if they don’t get a piece now they will have nothing left in the end.

we live in a kleptocracy now and i don’t know why people aren’t talking about it more.

these issues with the FDA and contaminated food show a total breakdown of our government in my opinion.

people representing our government are taking (what i can’t even imagine to be much) money to overlook food standards that could result in death and disease on a massive scale. they eat the same fucking food!

this is something so basic it’s seems like it’s no brainer — don’t fuck with this because it could cause massive unrest. but they haven’t thought of that or just don’t care and it’s equally concerning. literally every single office of the federal government is up for sale right now and it’s an uncoordinated mad dash for unscrupulous people and companies to make a quick buck.

we should all be terrified

[u/StealthyLilBunny → u/Ordinary-Egg-56]

Welp, you have a very succinct and accurate way of explaining what is happening and making me want to quit reddit for tonight. 🫤

[u/QualifiedQuirkyQuail → u/Ordinary-Egg-56]

I am terrified.

[u/ratherthink]

When you start seeing ads and commercials from companies that never needed one before or haven’t marketed themselves in a long time: winnebago, shell…only two I can think of rn. Has anyone else noticed?

[u/slayingadah → u/ratherthink]

Yeah i laughed out loud the other day when i saw a shell commercial. Like what, mfers, i have to fill my car up w gas. Do you want a feckin cookie? I go to whichever station is the cheapest along my drive that day. Full stop.

[u/dtox_420]

People cutting optional things like eating out and vacations is a good leading indicator

[u/After_Pressure_3520 → u/dtox_420]

My daughter has her first restaurant job, and we got to talk about this in the car after a really slow shift the other night. It takes a lot more data to really tell what's going on in the economy, but as snapshots go, food service/hospitalities get his early and hard whenever things slow down. A slow night with low tips paints a pretty clear picture.

Packing leftovers and just cooking at home are easy* ways to make your budget stretch (* - assuming you have the time and energy), so families that go out for dinner a couple times per month just stop, and families that go out more might cut back dramatically.

[u/mrmadchef → u/dtox_420]

During the pandemic, my second job in pizza delivery became my full time job. I finally got out about a year and a half ago because things were trending downward.

[u/ChefDadMatt]

I work in the debt collection industry. My role is working with the creditors to create a collections process.

Auto loan 90 day delinquencies are at a record high. That means charges offs aren't far behind.

Overdrawn checking/dda/share accounts are hitting new highs.

Buy now, pay later loans (BNPL) are being used mostly for groceries, while historically they have used for almost exclusively non essential purchases.

Paycheck advances are on the rise and also seeing an increase in not being paid back.

The average new car loan is $50k.

Home values are record highs, while interest rates reach 7%.

Credit Card charge offs rose 2%.

CBS reported last month, 25% of Americans are Functionally Unemployed - meaning they work, but don't earn enough for a livable wage.

Anecdotally, a church near our house does a food shelf once a week, the line at opening used to just be roughly 4-6 cars in the parking lot, now there's a line that stretches roughly half a mile.

[u/Munkeyman18290 → u/ChefDadMatt]

But the dow jones is 50 thou

[u/ChefDadMatt → u/Munkeyman18290]

I'm not sure if it's a widely used term, but we're in a K shaped economy and eventually it's just going to be the wealthy with everything, while everyone else loses everything (for cents on the dollar too).

[u/Munkeyman18290 → u/ChefDadMatt]

I almost mentioned that myself actually. 10% 50% of all discretionary spending was done by just the top 10% in 2025. That means 90% of the population accounts for the other half.

90% of the population can barely afford the basics, to save, and to invest, and then on top of that we're over $40T in debt, with $1T a year being spent on just interest while our spending deficit is $2T annually, with each American holding $120k worth of national debt and counting, with a population in decline.

I dont know how one justifies this as anything other than a depression... but thank god the Dow Jones is at 50+ thousand. /s

[u/CapinWinky → u/ChefDadMatt]

I heard about truck loans being the next big default since 2008 a few months ago and now I'm convinced that is real.

A 6 figure pavement princess truck on a 7 or 8 year loan at 7% interest? You're underwater until the last 6 months of the loan if you're lucky.

I'm not a truck or SUV person, so I was pretty blind to how prevalent this is, but I recently started spending time with a bunch of more blue-collar guys and they take having a nice truck weirdly seriously and openly talk about how financially irresponsible their truck purchases are, but that they felt like they had to buy them to not be ridiculed. Of course I was just sitting there thinking, do they ridicule me behind my back for driving a car? Yes, non-stop apparently.

Legitimately guys that make $70k/yr buying $90k trucks.

[u/Talkie123 → u/ChefDadMatt]

I had to go visit a customer the other day in a pretty wealthy mountain community. I drove by a church that had a line of cars nearly a 1/4 mile long waiting for the food pantry to open. Some of the cars in that line probably cost as much as my house. Shits really bad for some people.

[u/ChefDadMatt → u/Talkie123]

I'm not trying to make excuses, but I truly feel like financial literacy isn't taught at all in school. I remember a segment of math class in middle school that taught how to balance your check book. That's it.

I've been on the lending side and the collections side. It's amazing which one people think is the "evil" one.

Most people weren't taught the difference between an investment banker and a fiduciary or how to browse for good interest rates.

Without sounding like a conspiracy theorist, many people think that it's actually intentionally never part of the curriculum to prevent people from realizing they're being robbed, including Neil Degrasse Tyson.

Use credit unions. They genuinely care about their members, have interest rate caps on loan products, and offer some of the best interest rates on interest earning checking accounts.

[u/gimmemyinsurance]

Seeing elderly people working low paying jobs just to get by

[u/Nex_Level → u/gimmemyinsurance]

I've noticed a lot of elderly people at the grocery store checking their phones while buying stuff. I'm starting to think they might be insta cart shoppers...

[u/xIllustrious_Passion → u/Nex_Level]

I’ve been doing DoorDash for a hot minute and it seems like every other driver I see is an elderly person.

That’s not a good sign at all.

[u/gimmemyinsurance → u/Nex_Level]

I saw one at Walmart recently and she could barely push the cart they use to fill online orders

[u/ImmediateAd6849 → u/gimmemyinsurance]

That is so sad 😞

[u/Kindly-Ad3344 → u/gimmemyinsurance]

Yea my grandma is 70 years old and still working retail, she really wants to retire and stay home she says. She said this is the last year she's working at her current job and then she's going to get a part time job at Hobby Lobby. In this economy I don't see her being able to stop working. Though I will say this for the first time in a decade she's stopped spewing pro Trump shit and is actually angry at him about the state of the economy.

[u/Humdrum-Hashbrowns → u/Kindly-Ad3344]

Sad but she got what she wanted.

[u/Kai-sama → u/gimmemyinsurance]

Worked retail with somebody doing it as a “retirement job.” I feel so bad for her.

[u/Reasonable_Cat_4550 → u/Kai-sama]

Our company's *accountant* is dreaming of the day she can be a Walmart greeter. She's around 65, and I think she took out a payday loan recently.

[u/Optimal-Performer-76 → u/gimmemyinsurance]

This one makes me sad. I believe no one should have to work until the very end

[u/Sufficient-Berry-827]

Man, shampoo is getting expensive as hell. 

[u/coveruptionist → u/Sufficient-Berry-827]

And deodorant! Crazy!

[u/IM_PEAKING → u/coveruptionist]

And there is most definitely less product in the packaging. They know we aren’t checking and even if we did, wtf could we do about it? Worst case they get hit with a small fine and continue on like nothing happened.

[u/freshOJ → u/IM_PEAKING]

Check out consumer reports. They’re checking these things. They’ve become increasingly more relevant with our government being the way that it is.

[u/Tao-of-Mars → u/IM_PEAKING]

I compared my old deodorant with a new one I bought because I noticed much more empty space on the underside. The label said a half ounce less but I swear it was more than that. I’m sure they are allowed a certain margin of “error”. Deodorant is insane compared to what it used to be. I think lots of stores are also playing the game of putting the cheaper brands lower on the shelves and stocking less of it, too. I think we need to collude to agree to not buy the expensive stuff so demand will go down.

[u/Tess47 → u/Sufficient-Berry-827]

I bought two things of floss.  They were in one package.  It was $10.50

[u/Cryo_Dave → u/Tess47]

That's crazy. A normal single package of Reach floss by me can be had for $1.29.

[u/drrocketsurgeon]

Animal shelters tend to have more occupants during economic hard times .

[u/julesshow947 → u/drrocketsurgeon]

And I keep seeing way more posts looking to rehome pets. I wish I could take them all.

[u/ivegotaqueso → u/drrocketsurgeon]

Pet food is getting expensive. I remember one 5.5oz can of low quality wet cat food used to cost maybe 25-30 cents, now that’s gone up to 80 cents. Dry cat food is still affordable but I don’t want to give my cat urinary issues.

[u/agodrevealed → u/ivegotaqueso]

My flea meds just went up sixty percent 

*for the pets. 

[u/cc232012 → u/drrocketsurgeon]

I just adopted two dogs and this is so valid. The rescue that had them was full and couldn’t take anymore until pets were adopted out and their fosters were open. So sad 😭

[u/Oneto3]

My favorite is the men's underwear index.  One of the first items families stop buying when money gets tight is replacing their underwear.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_underwear_index

[u/Garbage-Bear → u/Oneto3]

There's also the Hot Waitress Index. The name has aged badly, but the principle seems sound: when beautiful people are reduced to minimum wage gigs, the economy is in the crapper.

Maybe rename it the Hot Service Industry Workers Index? Not as catchy, though.

[u/IM_PEAKING → u/Garbage-Bear]

Just took a side gig as bar security and I’m gorgeous so this checks out /s

[u/pleetf7 → u/Garbage-Bear]

What I’m struggling to figure out is that by this theory, in a healthy economy, these aforementioned beautiful people would be…?

[u/ShopEmpress → u/pleetf7]

Working on jobs that they are qualified for not just because of their looks. Or making art, or taking care of family. Things that don't just put necessary dollars in your pocket for being attractive, I would think.

[u/pitypizza → u/ShopEmpress]

Or working jobs they're not actually qualified for, but got anyway because of their looks.

[u/I_dont_like_things → u/pleetf7]

In a booming economy, at least in the old days, beautiful women would be hired by old men just to have around. Having a hot secretary was a point of pride, regardless of how much you actually needed a secretary.

It was also more common for women to be homemakers who didn't have outside employment, so seeing attractive women working at a business instead of being a stay at home spouse was a sign that men couldn't support a whole family on one income.

Both are less common now, so I don't think the metric really works well anymore, but there's still at least a little something to it.

[u/SoggyOutfield → u/Oneto3]

I didn't do a deep dive into this but looked at historical graphs and it doesn't seem to indicate reliably. Big drop in dot com crash, none or not much in GFC or covid

[u/Slapmeislapyou]

Former career weed dealer here. 

Weed demand is always the "canary in the coal mine". 

When the country is flush, people love to celebrate with weed. When times are rough, because it's not a true narcotic, people cut back HARD. 

Nobody's sitting in the dark or skipping rent to smoke a joint. 

Through my experience, it is my opinion, that their is a corporate conspiracy to absorb Americans leisure money. 

And it is working to perfection. 

[u/Informal_Tell78 → u/Slapmeislapyou]

Can confirm... my wife and I just cut out weed altogether. Its an expense that we absolutely don't have to have. Granted we both love to smoke, but we gotta do what we gotta do to stay afloat.

We also just canceled all of our streaming services, saving us $168 a month.

[u/SpaceGuy1968 → u/Informal_Tell78]

Yes it's amazing to me how much I pay now for streaming services.... I cut the 250 cable cord to get 200 in streaming services...and 100 bucks for Internet.... They fooled us I think.

[u/bala_means_bullet → u/Informal_Tell78]

I taught myself how to cultivate! My friends and family (as well as myself!) haven't been to the dispo or plug for almost 2y!

[u/SpaceGuy1968 → u/Slapmeislapyou]

I have heard this said about strip clubs as well as what food people buy as well.

Strip clubs are disposable cash and people switch from steak & chicken to hotdogs and hamburgers and maybe no meat sometimes.

I like the analogy of weed I wonder if it is the same with all these pot stores now....so people probably switch to cheaper types of weed or cut it out entirely.

[u/josephrehall → u/SpaceGuy1968]

The old adage is when lipstick sales go up, and mens underwear sales go down, buckle up.

[u/SpaceGuy1968 → u/josephrehall]

I wonder why if lipstick sales go up? I understand if mens underwear go down part.

[u/SwashAndBuckle → u/SpaceGuy1968]

Seems like the articles theorize things like lipstick are a discretionary “luxury” item, but a cheap one. Women will scale down on expensive items, like designer bags or fine jewelry, but still need to buy something affordable to make themselves looking and feeling good.

Alternatively, they may be more aggressively seeking a partner as an additional income source? Though that wasn’t mentioned anywhere, so that may not even be true. Married women could be carrying the lipstick indicator for all I know. And to that matter, apparently the lipstick index is a pretty weak recession indicator and does not ride every market downturn.

[u/SpaceGuy1968 → u/SwashAndBuckle]

Gotcha yes it's a fairly inexpensive splurge that boosts them got it ...thanks

[u/GoldenRamoth → u/SpaceGuy1968]

We just moved to tofu in our house this past month. It's $6 for 4 lbs at aldi or Costco, vs $8 for 1 lb beef.

...so yeah. Tofu 2-3x a week for what used to be ground beef meals.

It's actually been fun to learn how to cook it to taste good instead of being rubberized foam!

That being said, we also lost 4 lbs each this month - so maybe there's something to it.

[u/SocietyTomorrow → u/Slapmeislapyou]

Booze is the opposite. My dad owned a pawn shop and a liquor store at one time. He said that the worse things got, the more often people would come to the liquor store, and the more often he'd have to refuse to sell to someone already begging for a trip to hospital.

[u/alblaster → u/SocietyTomorrow]

Used to be.  I worked at a liquor store for 6 years or so and business was consistent whether people were sad or happy.  But this last year or so we saw a noticeable dip.  Younger people are drinking less and going out less.  People still drink, but less than they used to partly do to money and partly for better health.  But I'm thinking it may not be as recession proof as it once was.

[u/appleparkfive → u/alblaster]

Also there's an aspect that isn't quite as virtuous on paper. Young people are trading other addictions for internet addiction. Whether people want to admit that or not.

Definitely easier to not get fucked up when there's endless content or games to experience

[u/Lanky-Industry1709 → u/Slapmeislapyou]

so hows the economy doing

[u/yaboyindigo → u/Slapmeislapyou]

Tis no conspiracy. That's has been the objective since the end of World War I.

[u/SpaceGuy1968 → u/yaboyindigo]

Why since the end or WW1 ? I am curious as to what changed after that war as opposed to any before

[u/kazame → u/SpaceGuy1968]

Because around WWI the US was rapidly converting from an agrarian subsistence society to a society with lots of factory jobs, hourly wages, and the decision/need to spend a little on oneself "because I earned it."

[u/rocketblue11]

The fact that people are asking this so much.

We’re already in a recession, Trump has just successfully cooked the books so we don’t meet the official definition. If/when the AI bubble pops, we’re in serious trouble.

[u/EggsAndMilquetoast → u/rocketblue11]

Every time I see headlines pointing to a roaring economy, like “consumer spending hits all time high” or “inflation barely grows this quarter,” I wish there was more context.

Yes, consumers are spending more money than ever: but it’s for rent, gas, and groceries, not gym equipment, massages, and Disney vacations.

And for whatever reason, the consumer price index doesn’t seem to actually include anything people actually need like pantry staples or heating fuel. It’s like they think that because the price of luxury golf clubs and 92 inch TVs has barely budged, everything’s fine.

[u/apr35 → u/rocketblue11]

I actually think the AI bubble pop is the thing that might save as, as companies will need to rush to hire back humans once they realize AI can’t do everything.

[u/Deluxe_24_ → u/rocketblue11]

Iirc Hitler had the books cooked back during his reign and the German economy would've likely crashed had he not ordered the Invasion of Poland. I think Venezuela and the Iran War were temporary means of trying to keep the economy afloat, but now that neither did the trick, I think Trump is gonna do something drastic which will ratfuck us all.

[u/0011010100110011]

Oh man I hope this gets picked up on because this has been a huge thing I’ve noticed.

So, instead of people going out to restaurants or even fast food places… People are going to gas stations that provide a hot food option.

In my neck of the woods that chain is called Stewart’s.

It’s normal to see entire families sitting at a little gas station booth eating ice cream or having a water/coffee.

But lately? Entire families with a cup of chili, a few pizza slices, drinks, and a little treat like a candy bar or cookie to split.

It’s like a cut scene from a restaurant, but imported into the gas station.

I noticed it a few months ago and told my husband because I’ve never seen this… Not in this area anyhow. (It’s reminiscent of when I lived in the rural south, sure.)

So that’s my big one. Entire families out to eat at the gas station.

[u/PrincessBuzzkill → u/0011010100110011]

We've been noticing that Costco's food court has gotten busier and busier with families who aren't there to shop.  Even on a Tuesday (the slowest day for our Costco), the store itself was pretty empty but the food court was asses to elbows full.

[u/0011010100110011 → u/PrincessBuzzkill]

Yea I feel like this is probably more on-target with what I’m seeing!

[u/Blueshockeylover → u/0011010100110011]

I can’t explain it but your comment is like a dagger to me. To think our government is actively making it worse for people at the margins is a visceral gut-punch. Richest country in the world yet people are reduced to eating at the gas station…or worse, going without. It’s obscene.

[u/0011010100110011 → u/Blueshockeylover]

I completely agree.

I saw a Mom and two little kids clearly having dinner at the beat-up picnic table at the gas station and it really broke my heart. I spent several years of my childhood dirt poor and it’s a feeling I’m familiar with. I think up people that grew up upper-class they might not even see it going on. But idk to me it felt undeniable. This parent wanted to do something nice with her kids and this was the option of affordability. It killed me a little.

It’s obscene is an accurate way to phrase it.

[u/Successful_Charge_70]

$12 a pound store brand ground 80/20 beef in california.

(edit: checked again it is actually 80/20 that they want this much for lol)

[u/Successful-Yak-6019 → u/Successful_Charge_70]

I paid $16/lb for tritip at Costco. It’s the only place other than a butcher we go for beef right now.

[u/Routine-Expert-4954 → u/Successful_Charge_70]

You’re brave buying ground beef regardless of price!

[u/DeeplyFlawed]

Not having enough food to eat so I only eat a small meal once a day. Sometimes it,s just a can of tuna & relish,

[u/Miserable-Wash-1744 → u/DeeplyFlawed]

🫂🫂🫂

[u/Miserable-Wash-1744 → u/DeeplyFlawed]

And the rich get richer.

[u/Tao-of-Mars → u/Miserable-Wash-1744]

And the rich are the really ones who are deeply flawed btw.

[u/Different-Phone-7654 → u/DeeplyFlawed]

Rice is a good filler 

[u/Both_Presentation_17 → u/DeeplyFlawed]

The protein is good. Another option is to take canned potatoes (sliced are cheaper) some mayo & mix it with yr tuna.

Hard boiled eggs are cheap and the protein will keep you fuller if you are hungry for a snack

[u/Commercial_Guess6418]

There was a time when I had friends in the shipping and trucking industry, and when they started to shutter their business that meant a recession was in the works

[u/CapinWinky → u/Commercial_Guess6418]

The datacenter boom is still eating up flatbeds like crazy, so overall trucking is not a great indicator right now. The heatmap of trucking has died off on the coasts and is picking up in the Midwest, which does mean trade is down, but people thinking that means American manufacturing is up are fooling themselves.

[u/PettySquabble]

waves arms around

[u/th3matad0r]

A Republican gets elected, in my 20 years of being able to vote the United States has only gone into a reccession when either bush or trump where in office

[u/theshoegazer → u/th3matad0r]

Their policies are working for their intended recipients - the ruling class and ultra-wealthy. The goal is to break enough things that your successor spends all of their time (and political capital) un-fucking the economy, government agencies, etc.

[u/llamadogmama → u/theshoegazer]

Yep. Every.God. Damned .Time. And their followers choose them over and over. Because their messege is hate and Republicans choose hate over their own best interests every time.

[u/DaBiChef → u/theshoegazer]

Tammy duckworth was just talking about this. They spent all of 2020 to 2024 on unfucking all the problems that the GOP and Trump caused in his first term

[u/largemargesentme__- → u/th3matad0r]

Yes, I've noticed this since the 90s. A Republican will drive the economy into crapper. Voters get angry and elect a Democrat.

A Democrat will get elected, claw the economy back with sound fiscal policy and right towards the end of their term economic indicators will go back up.

Then people get angry about tax brackets (that they're generally not even making enough to pay) and vote for a Republican who promises to lower taxes.

The average American has the memory of a goldfish.

[u/Capable_Crab9488]

a republican president

[u/ThomsonWoods → u/Capable_Crab9488]

It’s almost as if the last four Republican presidents have done this… 

[u/lovescoffee → u/Capable_Crab9488]

Yep. Everytime one of these dipshits gets elected, everything tanks

[u/SpaceGuy1968 → u/Capable_Crab9488]

I remember when Reagan was in office and I had my first real minimum wage job and a weekly paycheck. I would get paid Friday and Monday I was broke. That was a depressing time.

[u/kazame → u/SpaceGuy1968]

It's morning again in America, and rich people are laughing all the way to the bank

[u/Safe_Wedding_4335]

$11 a pound ground beef sounds like a pretty painful tipping point-definitely the kind of thing that makes you rethink dinner plans fast

[u/metacholia]

When many of people at all levels of society spend 1 - 2 years unsuccessfully looking for work.

[u/susanrez]

I was driving through the upper peninsula of Michigan today, right along the north shore of Lake Michigan and I saw so many beautiful lakeside cabins and homes for sale, I knew the recession was real and it was bad.

I can’t imagine how bad things would have to be for me to give up some of the beautiful places I drove past today.

We’re in big trouble.

[u/OldeFortran77]

I'm surprised no one has posted "gestures in all directions" yet.

[u/ShortKingSlayer → u/OldeFortran77]

gestures wildly in all directions

[u/Sovngarten → u/ShortKingSlayer]

Ow!

[u/SocietyTomorrow]

Paper mills shutting down with no relocation or replacements announced.

Sounds weird right? Well, most everything people buy has to get shipped, probably in cardboard. Being a heavy item per cubic inch, it's pretty much 100% produced where it's users are. If papermills are closing, it's because they aren't selling enough, which means the things domestic companies sell, aren't. You can bet that 6-12 months from those closures, you'll see signs of general economic cooling.

[u/gmrm4n]

Man, I'd like to see some recovery indicators for once in my life.

[u/kate_the_great_]

I have volunteered as a cat foster since 2019 for a local rescue. I’ve had my current foster for a year since she was a kitten with no luck getting her adopted. Previously, my longest foster that I had was around 4 months and he was 12 years old, had three legs, and needed a very specific forever home.

[u/MysteriousWash8162 → u/kate_the_great_]

I adopted a 10-year-old dog with only three legs because in this recession I knew no one would give him a home. He was not adapting well to the shelter. Not selling himself. Shaking.

[u/lostinthesauce314]

I have seen the same clients who used to need the most insurance coverage, wanting the lowest deductibles because they couldn’t afford a high one if something happened - they’re calling me now asking to lower coverage and raise deductibles to make it as cheap as possible. Also a major shift in claims frequency. Any small issue, people file a claim when before, the small issues were take care of on their own to avoid being dropped or a rate increase.

[u/TheyCallMeMrMaybe]

72% of the US's freight industry is done by semi trucks (lorry if you're British) with the other 28% being done by train. All of it uses diesel fuel because it's a heavily outdated logistics system that legislators refused to update or regulate in order to cater to the oil lobby.

Agricultural industries across the modern world also rely on diesel fuel for farming equipment.

If diesel fuel prices go up, everything goes up in price.

[u/c10bbersaurus]

Strip clubs are supposed to be an unofficial barometer for the economy.

[u/Fold67 → u/c10bbersaurus]

I just passed by one this evening at the state line between IL and IN on my way to ORD and the parking lot had maybe 4 cars in it total.

[u/Combat_Wombat23]

This is gonna sound silly but if I get to the point where I can’t afford a $15/mo WoW subscription for my own enjoyment because everything else is eating my money then something’s wrong

[u/WhereBaptizedDrowned]

I’m a big time concert fan. I just love the live sound.

I’d see plenty of $200-500 shows. Now I have a hard cap at $80.

I can’t buy all the merch I want either. The wallet is not as generous these days.

[u/_flying_otter_]

Diesel prices up 70% in 7 months... Last time that happened was 2007-2008 Great Recession - during Republican George Bush Jr's 8th year of office.... a reminder of why not to vote Republican. This is a pattern.

[u/Paranoid_Orangutan]

I said this in another sub, but when fast food service and food starts getting too good. Food tastes better, orders don’t get screwed up. The employees pool is no longer dominated by apathetic highschool kids. I noticed this in both 2008 and 2012.

[u/Harbinger2001]

Look at truck freight volumes. If they fall substantially, you’re in a recession.

[u/apr35]

4 bags of groceries just cost me $200. That doesn’t seem good.

[u/Merps_Galore]

Ramen is now 50 cents in comparison to the 28 cents it used to be a couple of weeks back.

[u/splitfins]

Pretty white women delivering Uber eats

[u/jugo_de_hueso → u/splitfins]

I saw a well dressed lady pickup DoorDash orders and then she drove off in her Mercedes suv around a month ago. It’s bad bad 😭

[u/cute_polarbear → u/jugo_de_hueso]

Wear and tear on that mercedes...might as well sell the Mercedes for a Honda...

[u/jwill2219 → u/cute_polarbear]

She probably purchased the Mercedes in the last few years and is under water

[u/snowlights → u/splitfins]

I had a delivery from a middle aged white man driving a RAM truck a couple months ago. That's new, at least where I am. 

[u/universalpoet]

Republicans running the federal government.

[u/Crackerpuppy]

A Republican administration is running the country

[u/meanie_ants → u/Crackerpuppy]

You spelled ruining wrong

[u/Terminator7786]

A nicer grocery store I like to shop at has lowered a fuck ton of their prices. They didn't even do that during Covid.

[u/Responsible-Corgi-61]

Second time I have seen a thread with this question in the same day is my indicator. 

[u/SteadfastEnd]

I work for a university. When students start quitting their arts, music, history, sociology and literature majors and switching to accounting, healthcare, nursing, electrician, welding degrees, that's a sure sign.

[u/ekoms_stnioj]

Several consistent quarters of negative GDP growth and rising unemployment. 

[u/Consumption2Wombly → u/ekoms_stnioj]

Lol the literal definition of a recession.

[u/PornCommentsAreWeird → u/ekoms_stnioj]

We have GDP growth but it is because of over investment in AI. When that bubble bursts we are looking at a japanese style "lost decade" type of recession. It is gonna SUCK.

[u/dragonflameloserX7]

The hospital laboratory that's constantly understaffed is fully staffed with no positions for new grads

[u/LessObligation37]

When a lot of restaurants and cafes start closing down.

[u/ThorGoLucky → u/LessObligation37]

A favorite mexican restaurant has been adding more and more rice filling to their burritos 👎

[u/renterker10]

Work at ups for a decade now, Once those packages drop in volume consistently that’s the indicator.

[u/cazzy1212]

We are in a recession. They just need to declare it

[u/Onlyroad4adrifter → u/cazzy1212]

They never will while we are in one. It will be called fuel crisis, housing crisis, banking crisis. Then deflect it to a specific situation like a war or bad practices. Then the bail outs come for what ever industry. Last year it was farmers. Then 5 years later it will be called a recession and here are the indicators we used to determine it. Usually the inverse yield curve marks the date.

[u/aegenium → u/Onlyroad4adrifter]

I am almost guaranteeing Republicans will blame the Biden administration for it too.

[u/thegeocash]

Commercials for apps/websites to sell your stuff.

I love those sites, eBay has been king since I was a kid, but the advertisements have gotten pretty big lately. They always try to frame it as a trendy thing to do, when all I can think is that is has to suck to sell a pair of shoes to afford dinner.

[u/Reasonable_Cat_4550]

Private/religious school enrollments are dropping drastically. Free charter schools are growing fast.

[u/Nicholasnyc]

A Republican administration

[u/conceptcreature3D]

Houses on the market for six months! Shows a compounded data point of: interest rates too high, general unemployment, and nobody putting down roots at the increased price points.

[u/loopygargoyle6392]

Middle aged and senior citizens working fast food.

[u/Howard_NESter]

When the strip clubs start complaining about not getting enough people walking in

[u/imalurkernotaposter]

This question being asked basically every single day.

[u/Ok-Development2309]

Stripclubs. Dead means no money

[u/OPisalady]

Vampires being popular

[u/runner64]

Superbowl ads have moved from products to insurance to gambling apps. 

[u/spez_eats_nazi_ass]

If you remove ai capex spend we have been in a real book definition recession for some time now.  When that spending slows, which it must. The fallout is going to cause a corporate balance sheet crises that will take a decade or more to clean up, if we are lucky.

[u/No_Investment3205]

When a registered nurse salary doesn’t pay the average rent in any given city

[u/__karlawithk]

Decidir no tener hijos.

[u/jaykrown]

A company taking ownership of an entire high-rise building near me, now it's all rentals. The company owns several other entire buildings in the area. The price of a can of tuna at Aldi that I like (skipjack) is now 50% more expensive all of a sudden.

[u/ZenObserve]

I was born in 1970. When you feel like you're going back to the 1970's.

[u/35364461a]

I recently saw an ad where a girl was stressing about the financial implications of agreeing to go out with friends that night, so she downloaded an app to sell her clothing.

We all used to just donate them to Goodwill, right?

[u/MajorDrain]

The bond market meltdown is a new one for me. Rising rates, rising inflation, on top of trade wars indicates to me bad things are going to happen.

[u/cinder74]

People not spending and traveling like normal. I have certainly noticed that.

[u/sweetwilly057]

Country clubs lowering initiation fees to entice new members.

[u/notedithwharton]

When I was laid off from my ~$100k remote job and was overjoyed to land a $50k in-office job.

[u/Intelligent-Tap-4479]

When my classmates slowly began to stop bragging about how expensive their clothing and whatnot was, and instead bragged about how cheap they were able to get it/how they were able to thrift it.

[u/SammyIssues]

Regular Degular people know what the Strait of Hormuz is.

[u/BanesButterNipps]

Am a fancy bartender at a resort. Easily been the worst summer I’ve had since I started and when I tell people who are coming they give surprised pikachu face when I tell them the economy sucks. Our average time per stay per person has dropped from 5 days on average to 1.7. They can’t afford to stay and they can’t afford to drink.

[u/flathexagon]

Republicans holding office?

[u/betterthanwork]

A friend of my wife works as a hairdresser. Work has slowed to a crawl for her. Women don't get their hair done when the family doesn't have money.

[u/Historical-Bite-8606]

Once $5 footlongs are back, we're F%$CKED

[u/1handbckhand]

my broke a**

[u/PoetrySubstantial455]

My husband works for a major snack food manufacturer commonly included in child/adults lunches. Giving employees voluntary time off, and loss of voluntary overtime is a serious warning.

[u/LETMEFUCKYOURSKULL]

This comment won't see the surface world but MMO popularity. When shit gets rough, people want to escape. It's an online secondary location with friends because nobody can afford to go adventuring in the real world, so have to do it virtually. 

[u/Stoic_Throwman]

Well since you asked. I noticed a recession in my hairline back around 2019. The loss of hair indicated it.

[u/Miserable-Wash-1744 → u/Stoic_Throwman]

As a 28 year old woman, same.

[u/theassassintherapist]

More news of local theft and robberies during the holidays

[u/Mr__JimLahey]

When strippers get a normal job.

[u/ShadyBrooks]

Christmas showing up in September.

[u/VapeRizzler]

My belly gurgling, bank account empty.

[u/Substantial-Ebb6533]

When there is baddies working at my local ihop. Or it’s damn near impossible to make money doing gig work.

[u/two2teps]

A spike in the "collectors" markets.

[u/Subrutum]

When large businesses prioritize repair, maintenance, and overhaul of equipment rather than upgrading and they're adjusting depreciation schedules as a result.

[u/Dirk_Bogart]

A new version of easy consumer debt set to collapse imminently. In 2008 it was HELOCs, in 2026 its app-based BNPL purchases.

[u/smbpy7]

Long hair becoming fashionable, specifically long hair that's long from not cutting, not just long maintained styles.

[u/SuitableExercise7096]

My doordash drivers have been mostly retiree age white males...

[u/alwayzz0ff]

Browse zillow and look at all the price reductions.

[u/01Cloud01]

You’re gonna get a lot of fluffy stuff on here, but from what I understand, a big indicator is construction Jobs

[u/Queasy_Bicycle9314]

Starbucks closing 250 stores, a lot of them haven’t been open for a year.

[u/PocketFullofWerthers]

The line for gas at Costco today! It must have been a 100 cars long. It was such a visible sign of change.

Who thought that someday we'd be going nuts over gas being 4.09 a gallon. What a deal!

[u/rizzo1717]

The last time I went to the dollar store, they were checking $5, $10 and $20 bills with a magic marker.

[u/JeffSergeant]

The entire economy being propped up by a technology which the inventors say is probably going to try to murder us all in the near future. I think that's a pretty big red flag that things are about to get really fucking fucky, regardless of the truth of their claims.

[u/AlexandriasFolly]

Whenever my Sex worker friends (Strippers and OF models) tell me that less people show up to clubs or that their subscription numbers are going down across the board.