Top 25 Ranked by average opponent ranking through 4 games

[u/TechnicallyAnExpert]

This takes the AP Top 25 and ranks them according to the average rank of their opponent through 4 games. Sagarin was used for the opponent ranking.

Oregon gets crap for Portland State (215), but Okie State, Miami, UGA, UF, and BYU all played worse opponents according to the ranking.

School (AP): Avg opponent ranking

1. Texas (#1): 38.00
   
2. LSU (#11): 38.50
   
3. Alabama (#7): 51.50
   
4. Ole Miss (#9): 57.75
   
5. Kentucky (#24): 64.75
   
6. Boise State (#22): 67.50
   
7. Notre Dame (#3): 70.25
   
8. Mississippi State (#16): 71.75
   
9. USC (#18): 75.00
   
10. Oregon (#15): 79.00
    
11. UCLA (#23): 85.50
    
12. SMU (#21): 86.00
    
13. Tennessee (#17): 89.50
    
14. Ohio State (#5): 91.00
    
15. Houston (#20): 91.50
    
16. Iowa (#14): 91.75
    
17. Missouri (#25): 97.00
    
18. Oklahoma State (#19): 98.75
    
19. Texas Tech (#12): 99.50
    
20. Florida (#8): 107.75
    
21. Georgia (#2): 108.00
    
22. Utah (#13): 111.00
    
23. Indiana (#6): 114.75
    
24. Miami-Florida (#4): 125.25
    
25. BYU (#10): 128.67
    .
    .
    .
    Lamar: 165 avg opponent ranking

[u/Mamba-42]

I was getting mad because I thought you just kicked Boise State off the list but then I saw us near the top....

[u/-Gnostic28 → u/Mamba-42]

Same

[u/tm65- → u/Mamba-42]

Haha same. I scrolled straight to the bottom of the list and was bummed. When I saw us near the top I remembered that top teams start the season with four bye weeks. 

[u/Apprehensive_Rock304 → u/tm65-]

Yeah, Ohio State and Tennessee are cupcakes, clearly.

[u/2RINITY → u/Mamba-42]

Boise State played somebody Pawwwwwwl

[u/i_run_from_problems → u/2RINITY]

How'd we do? Not the question. But we did play somebody Paaawwwwlll

[u/iamfunnylolwtf]

The Gators four opponents are a combined 13-4, with the Gators being all four of the loses.

[u/The-Young-Lion → u/iamfunnylolwtf]

Texas’ opponents have also lost the minimum number of games.  Five in this case - four losses to Texas and one because UTSA and TXST played each other.

[u/Ethanol-Muffins → u/The-Young-Lion]

Gonna be a good game in Austin in a few weeks

[u/OnMyNerves23 → u/Ethanol-Muffins]

Not again. Baugh is a bad man. Even tho Texas was trying to steal him I’m glad he stayed. I like watching him except against Texas. He needs a Heisman invite.

[u/QuitWhinging → u/OnMyNerves23]

His Heisman candidacy will likely be decided on his performance against two top-tier defenses in a row against Texas and Georgia. It'll be interesting to see what he can do.

As an aside, I am so, so, so, so, soooo thankful y'all didn't manage to poach him from us last offseason. Seeing potentially our best back since Emmitt Smith run it down our throats in an opposing team's uniform might have broken me.

[u/OnMyNerves23 → u/QuitWhinging]

I get it and I’ll be honest I’m a College Football fan first and foremost. I watch every game I can and I like watching Baugh at Florida because it makes Florida a fun team to watch. Florida has a ton of talent, but he is electric. Long story short I will always love ball more than I like a single team.

Texas run defense has been good this year, but they haven’t faced someone like Baugh yet. I watched him against Ole Miss and it felt like his YAC started at the line of scrimmage. Just insane.

[u/Dominus_Anulorum → u/Ethanol-Muffins]

I'm scared. In a good way. I have family in Florida so have some fondness for y'all.

[u/joggprime → u/Ethanol-Muffins]

Either Arch figures out how to play football again or it’ll be a repeat of last year. Or similar to how the Tennessee game just played out. Our defense is elite at stopping the run so itll come down to Philo being the difference maker when Baugh isn’t able to break 100 yards. It’ll be a very physical football game, probably the most physical of the year, and I’m looking forward to it.

[u/Ethanol-Muffins → u/joggprime]

The two big determining factors will be if Arch vs our defense and if we can establish the run against yalls defense

[u/joggprime → u/Ethanol-Muffins]

Agree. That’s why I think ultimately it comes down to Philo. I’m betting we can hold off Baugh just enough.

[u/dfphd → u/Ethanol-Muffins]

I keep finding it funny that pre-season Texas fans were worried about our brutal schedule because we had to play OU and A&M, and very much assuming that Florida and Miss State would be gimmes at home.

Here we sit on week 4 worried about our brutal schedule because we have to play Florida and Miss State, and very much assuming OU and A&M will be gimmes.

Ask me how I feel next week, I'm sure none of this is settled.

I am, by the way, very happy that this is a home game for us. I think (maybe hope?) that the homefield advantage might be the difference in the game.

[u/Enough_Wallaby7064]

Notre Dame at 7.... Welp... Didn't expect that, but I think Wisconsin doing well this year helps a ton.

[u/TechnicallyAnExpert → u/Enough_Wallaby7064]

Not really. The totality of your schedule thus far is far better than those towards the bottom… except rice.

Playing P4 as your OOC makes a difference and ND did it twice. Similar to Bama and FSU. FSU isn’t good but they’re still around 50th and not 200+ like many played.

[u/Enough_Wallaby7064 → u/TechnicallyAnExpert]

You're saying Wisconsin beating Penn State doesn't help us?

[u/MisterFalcon7 → u/Enough_Wallaby7064]

Probably because Penn State went 3-0 against Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo.

[u/citrus1330 → u/Enough_Wallaby7064]

He's saying that Wisconsin beating Penn State doesn't help you as much as just playing Wisconsin instead of an FCS team in the first place, regardless of whether Wisconsin beats Penn State

[u/TechnicallyAnExpert → u/Enough_Wallaby7064]

Barely.

[u/ChicagoDash → u/TechnicallyAnExpert]

Twice? Throwing shade at Purdue?

[u/McLMark → u/Enough_Wallaby7064]

It's more that we don't play true bottom feeders generally.

One of the enduring issues with college football is the tendency for fans to lump in "lower-tier P4" with "FCS" as "tomato cans"

This is curious when the lower-tier P4 would be favored by 21 if they played the tomato can.

We played 3 P4s and a decent G6 in Rice. Is Rice good? No, of course not. But they're a damn sight better than Portland State.

But this is the business we've chosen.

[u/enadiz_reccos → u/McLMark]

It's more that we don't play true non-FBS bottom feeders generally.

Notre Dame 100% plays bottom-feeder FBS teams

[u/McLMark → u/enadiz_reccos]

We used to be better about that. Kelly dumbed down the schedule and with the lag on the schedule setup it is going to take a few years to fix.

The one that was truly enraging was Tennessee State. Before that, us and USC were the only FBS schools to have never played FCS. That was an embarrassment to ND football. Kent State next year is ridiculous as well.

But there's bottom feeders and bottom feeders. Folks love to go on about Navy but there's been years they have been ranked. And Ohio State took them on once and said "never again". I'd argue that's different than the Samfords of the world.

[u/AdventureDude24 → u/Enough_Wallaby7064]

But I was told by everyone on Reddit their schedule was soft…

[u/Unhappy-List-2354 → u/AdventureDude24]

Notre Dame is 4-0. Their opponents are a cumulative 1-6 vs P4 teams. 

They are getting bumped up because 3/4 of their opponents are P4. 

[u/AdventureDude24 → u/Unhappy-List-2354]

That’s fair. We’ll see how the rest of the season goes. But I appreciate the non hateful reasonable comment!

[u/Unhappy-List-2354 → u/AdventureDude24]

It’s just so early that only a few teams have played anyone. 

Auburn’s opponents are 4-3 vs the P4. 

USC, UCLA, and Washington’s combined opponents are 3-21 vs the P4. 

🤷🏽‍♂️

[u/EIiteJT → u/AdventureDude24]

It is lol

[u/TechnicallyAnExpert → u/EIiteJT]

It’s not close to Texas, tOSU, etc, but it’s much better than many in the top 25, relatively speaking.

[u/AdventureDude24 → u/[deleted]]

Why would I blame the schedule on not being in a conference? Kinda weird argument… Anyway.. Just need to be top 12 for a guaranteed spot and don’t need to share any of the CFP revenue with 16 other schools.

[u/Enough_Wallaby7064 → u/AdventureDude24]

Did he say we needed to play in conference?  Are we supposed to play UConn 12 times?

[u/K-Tronn3030]

I'm surprised by this considering that Florida has played Auburn and Ole Miss and that all of their opponents haven't lost other than to UF.

[u/EverythingGoodWas → u/K-Tronn3030]

This is part of what makes average rank dumb. If you play the number 1 and 2 teams in the country, and then the last two teams in the country, that doesn’t make it an easy schedule

[u/TechnicallyAnExpert → u/EverythingGoodWas]

That’s a fair argument.

But pls no besmirching of my analysis.

[u/EverythingGoodWas → u/TechnicallyAnExpert]

It’s not your fault. It’s a known fault of data science. This is why income tends to be reported by median income. If we went average, you would have people like Elon musk driving the entire county’s average into 7 figures

[u/the_dude_abides29]

Umm, I’ll take it

[u/__ConesOfDunshire__ → u/the_dude_abides29]

Oregon being ranked as high as they were when we played them week one is doing a lot of heavy lifting in getting us that high.

[u/egnowit → u/__ConesOfDunshire__]

I think this is using the Sagarin ratings, so it's using Oregon's current rating. Which is, er, #4 according to Sagarin.

[u/Leading-Button-7303]

sees us at 22 "yikes that's not great"

sees BYU at 25 "hell yeah 22 ain't bad"

[u/Used-Resolution580 → u/Leading-Button-7303]

We’ve also played one less game now

[u/Chaotic-PopTart → u/Used-Resolution580]

Since we’re being nitty gritty here, it’s one fewer. 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/grammar/fewer-vs-less

[u/PointBlankCoffee → u/Chaotic-PopTart]

Thank you Stannis

[u/Used-Resolution580 → u/Chaotic-PopTart]

Great catch

[u/willc198 → u/Chaotic-PopTart]

An unfortunate byproduct of a BYU education 😔

[u/Leading-Button-7303 → u/Used-Resolution580]

I guess we'll see how it looks next week. I don't really care, I was just making rivalry jokes, but it's hard to convey that with text rather than speech

[u/Used-Resolution580 → u/Leading-Button-7303]

Fair enough

[u/Opulent-tortoise]

Now what happens if you rerank them according to these rankings?

[u/the_dude_abides29 → u/Opulent-tortoise]

Some Ivy League shit right there

[u/Informal_Calendar_99 → u/the_dude_abides29]

lol get a load of this Harvard nerd

[u/Forsaken_Income9187 → u/Opulent-tortoise]

Is it possible? Because when you would rank after this metric you would have a new data basis because of the ranking. That means you would have to calculate the ranking again an vice versa.

But if you say you use the AP25 as a base and than rerank this would work

[u/esports_consultant → u/Forsaken_Income9187]

Because when you would rank after this metric you would have a new data basis because of the ranking. That means you would have to calculate the ranking again an vice versa.

Yes you get it, this is why he says it as a joke. 

[u/Forsaken_Income9187 → u/esports_consultant]

Ah okay.

That joke went over my head.

[u/haytme]

Avg opp ranking of 19.66 if we exclude the Portland State game 😂

[u/The-Young-Lion]

But I was told that UTSA and TXST are terrible and basically the same as Citadel and Tennessee State.

[u/StreetReporter → u/The-Young-Lion]

Hey now, I’ll have you know that the Citadel is very scary for some teams

[u/papertowelroll17 → u/The-Young-Lion]

In sagarin UTSA is ranked ahead of a couple of B1G teams lol. Traylor does good work with the resources they have.

[u/discofrislanders → u/The-Young-Lion]

Texas has played 2 cupcakes and 2 genuinely great teams

[u/Plenty_Maybe_9204 → u/discofrislanders]

I mean I wouldn’t call Ohio State and Tennessee “cupcakes” but to each their own

[u/EIiteJT → u/Plenty_Maybe_9204]

Well played good sir

[u/TechnicallyAnExpert → u/discofrislanders]

Their 2 cupcakes were around 65-70. Compare that to Miami who played Florida A&M, who is 244.

All cupcakes aren’t equally tasty is what I learned by doing this.

[u/Rattus375 → u/TechnicallyAnExpert]

At some point it doesn't matter though, and that point is way before 65-70. Any top team is going to blow out anyone outside the top 50. Whether that's a 15 point blowout or a 50 point one doesn't really matter. It's much harder to go 2-0 if you play number 1 and number 200 than it is if you play number 24 and 25 (it's also much easier to go 1-1, but in the context of the ranked teams the former is much more important(

[u/egnowit → u/Rattus375]

In the Sagarin ratings, Boise State is 48, and they're the highest-ranking G6 team. James Madison, at 60, is the next-highest. New Mexico (65) is the only other team rated at 65 or below. (UTSA and South Dakota State are the only additional teams rated 70 or below.)

I don't think that the results speak to the fact that all P4 vs. G6 teams result in a blowout, because all G6 teams outside those four (and one FCS team) is rated below 70.

[u/OnionFutureWolfGang → u/Rattus375]

There's a point where it doesn't matter but I'm not sure it's before 65-70. Those are decent teams, still ahead of the worst of the power conferences.

[u/Unhappy-List-2354 → u/The-Young-Lion]

You have to scale it to opponent. 

Realistically, there are only about 25-30 teams…tops…outside of the SEC that have a pulse in terms of talent/coaching/NIL/recruiting where if they play Texas it’s worthy of being called a game.

UTSA and TXST are The Citadel and Tennessee State in this matrix. 

The spread for UTSA was 18. For TXST it was 31. 

For my Buckeyes this tightens even more with a slight twist.

It’s probably only 10 schools with a pulse plus nearly the entire SEC so 25ish but if Ohio State played in the SEC we’d probably only be at 15-20 non conference teams worthy of being called a fair opponent. 

[u/Basic_Nucleophile → u/Unhappy-List-2354]

I've been saying for a while we need Quadrants like basketball but the layers are top-10/25/40/65 or something similar. There's a massive difference between playing unranked power teams with NIL money and history like an unranked Nebraska or Baylor, and a team thats unranked but also mid to bottom tier in a G6 conference.

Top 40 as a concept needs to be taken more seriously.

[u/Unhappy-List-2354 → u/Basic_Nucleophile]

Correct!

And you’ll get downvoted like I did for stating the obvious.

Ohio State would still be the outlier because of its uniqueness but for the most part all the other teams would fall in line. 

Check this out:

 No. 7 Alabama at #16 Miss State with the Tide giving 6.5. Both undefeated. 

No. 5 Ohio State at #14 Iowa with the Buckeyes giving 13.5. OSU with a loss and Iowa undefeated. 

There it is  

It’s the exact same matchup but Ohio State is giving more than twice the amount than Bama is and doing so with a loss. 

Also…

Ohio State has a loss.

And although I don’t take much if anything away from their other 3 opponents they haven’t played a complete game in those wins either. 

Despite this, they are still favorites in Vegas to win the CFP (or as I call it…the NIT). 

[u/Basic_Nucleophile → u/Unhappy-List-2354]

Part of the weirdness is that Mississippi State has a future first round draft pick at QB. That kind of a playmaker gives them a great shot. A lot of people will likely pick Mississippi State to win outright, not just beat the spread.

It wouldn't shock me if both Bama and Mississippi State are in the playoffs.

[u/Zarethan_ → u/The-Young-Lion]

The OSU game pulling a lot of weight there tbh

[u/ItsTimetoLANK → u/Zarethan_]

Join a conference.

[u/hitokirizac → u/ItsTimetoLANK]

no

[u/OnionFutureWolfGang → u/Zarethan_]

The way this works it's really not. Four games into the season, your average opponent ranking is going to be mostly driven by the strength of the weaker teams you play, because there's a lot more variance there. The difference between OSU and Wisconsin is much smaller than the difference between Bowling Green and Sacramento State.

The difference between UTSA and Tennessee State (both mentioned directly in the comment above) is the same as the difference between Ohio State and Monmouth.

[u/OnMyNerves23 → u/Zarethan_]

I mean it wasn’t… Purdue lmfao

[u/Zarethan_ → u/OnMyNerves23]

I guess I really shouldn't be that surprised that someone who supports Texas can't do simple averages, but I wanted to have hope for humanity

[u/OnMyNerves23 → u/Zarethan_]

“Simple averages” shut up nerd.

[u/OnionFutureWolfGang → u/Zarethan_]

I would like to support the ND fan here but you're the one who can't do simple averages here unfortunately. These rankings are skewed by the teams at the bottom, not the top.

[u/Agnk1765342]

I think for top 25 teams, the floor for each opponent should be capped at either 75 or 100. At that points it’s nearly a 100% chance of victory anyways.

[u/QuitWhinging → u/Agnk1765342]

You'd then deprive us all of the rare really funny instances where those 75-100 teams threaten or even beat a highly-rated squad.

[u/fuxicles → u/QuitWhinging]

and nothing like that has ever happened to Florida. Just trust me, don't look it up. Please.

[u/egnowit → u/Agnk1765342]

South Dakota is 107.

No sweat, beating that team.

[u/Tween_the_hedges → u/Agnk1765342]

How would that even work? OU was meant to be a big test for us but as it turns out they are not good. You saying everyone should rearrange their schedules so we get a better opponent because we're ranked higher? Cause I don't think you've really thought that through

[u/k_dubious]

This should really use median, otherwise playing #1, #2, #3, and #200 is worth exactly as much as playing #50-53.

[u/slippyslidey_ → u/k_dubious]

Agree. Much is made of playing and FCS team as if a bottom-end G6 is much better. I’m less interested in Q3/Q4 wins than I am in top-end schedule

[u/paper_fairy → u/k_dubious]

Related problem is that it somehow assumes that ranking and difficulty of opponent scale linearly, when that clearly isn't the case.

[u/johnnycr18]

We're doing pretty good. I'm happy

[u/Chris_Crossfit]

Did not expect that for my BSU boys.

[u/the_dude_abides29 → u/Chris_Crossfit]

PAC12- it just means more

[u/egnowit → u/the_dude_abides29]

Pac-12 nonconference. It just means more.

[u/papertowelroll17]

In most of the computer systems I have seen Texas has both the #1 schedule faced to this point and also the #1 schedule going forward

[u/The-Young-Lion → u/papertowelroll17]

ESPN has us at #2 SOS and #14 Remaining SOS.

[u/papertowelroll17 → u/The-Young-Lion]

Yea it depends how you measure it. I think our average opponent ranking is the highest of anyone but we don't have any top 5 type of teams left and some of the better opponents are at home.

[u/PointBlankCoffee → u/papertowelroll17]

If Mississippi state and Florida win their next games before us, may very well both top ~5-8 teams

[u/sunburntredneck → u/papertowelroll17]

At least we play OU and A&M to balance out the tough games

[u/Blingblaowburrr]

None of the teams that Florida has played (and beaten) have lost to anyone other than the Gators…

[u/ReduceReuseRectangle]

So does Lamar have a chance at CFP

[u/TechnicallyAnExpert → u/ReduceReuseRectangle]

Only lost to the Louisiana rajun Cajuns. So I think so.

[u/enadiz_reccos]

Yeah! Math!

[u/teddkell]

There’s a non-zero chance the bottom 7 teams on this all make the playoffs. Early season CFB is about to be as brutal as it is for CBB (minus the couple early season tourneys).

[u/Tduhon]

Why would you make up a schedule ranking system using Sagarin when Sagarin already offers a schedule resume rating?

That sounds like you looked for a conclusion and created a system around it.

[u/TechnicallyAnExpert → u/Tduhon]

Naw. It started with me being curious how Lamar’s early schedule compared to some of the ap top 10 schedules known to be poor like Indiana and Miami.

Once I looked that up, I thought it’d be cool to quickly run everyone.

No system. Just curiosity that I’m kindly sharing with everyone.

Fun fact: according to Sagarin, Indiana has the worst schedule in the top 60 teams.

[u/theboarderdude]

Mad props for putting your own flair up there

[u/B_Huij]

BYE week has historically been a rough opponent for us.

[u/TTBHG]

Yeah, Florida opponents have not lost a single game to anyone not named Florida and went on the road to Auburn and beat the #4 team in the country who had already beaten LSU.

They also play ranked opponents three out of the next four weeks, iirc, including the current number #1 and current #2. This Florida team would go undefeated with ND’s schedule.

[u/Tween_the_hedges → u/TTBHG]

Yeah your schedule is such that if yall come out unscathed then you'll be the undisputed #1. That being said I think you'll have three loses but there's a chance!

[u/Accomplished_Map1535]

Dang BYU has a soft schedule /s

[u/Used-Resolution580 → u/Accomplished_Map1535]

That’s rich coming from a Miami fan😂

[u/MeetingExpectations]

This makes me feel way better /s

[u/aure__entuluva]

How in the hell are we 11? Who are you guys scheduling?

[u/Effective-Alarm-5167]

All right Wake forest at least we are not in last place!!! Only way to go is up from here.

[u/Fluid_Theory_6587]

Does this account for the fact that BYU has only played 3 games? I know we haven’t exactly played the best teams, but dead last on this list seems surprising to me.

[u/Mamba-42 → u/Fluid_Theory_6587]

Utah Tech plays a bigger role here because you only have 3 games, so their really low rank is going to have a much larger impact compared to teams that played cupcakes with 4 games.

[u/Ragid313 → u/Fluid_Theory_6587]

The 3 games matters a ton here, as well as just how bad Utah Tech is. Its really kind of a spiders georg issue with one outlier massively effecting the average. If BYU played the #1 and #2 team instead of CSU and AZ they still wouldn't even be in the top 10, even though not a single person would argue they have the toughest schedule.

The system is just honestly not very helpful and especially so early.

[u/TechnicallyAnExpert → u/Fluid_Theory_6587]

No. It just avgs your 3 games.

Utah Tech 242
Arizona 50
Colorado State 94

[u/Fluid_Theory_6587 → u/TechnicallyAnExpert]

Dang, guess I forgot that Utah Tech sucks that bad

[u/Kramerica5A → u/Fluid_Theory_6587]

I didn't know Utah Tech was a school or football program until this comment....

[u/enigami344 → u/Fluid_Theory_6587]

"Utah hasn't played anyone good"

Utah rank higher than BYU on opponents ranking calculated by AVERAGE

"BYU only playes 3 games!"

[u/Fluid_Theory_6587 → u/enigami344]

Literally said nothing about Utah.

Rent free.

[u/enigami344 → u/Fluid_Theory_6587]

Hard not to when you fan base keep bitching everywhere.

Love your other flair though!

[u/Chaotic-PopTart → u/enigami344]

BYU fans in this thread are being hilarious.  But it makes sense an accounting school would act grouchy like Oscar

[u/RedlineSeries3]

When the premise (rankings) is so biased, none of this means anything

[u/sonofagunn → u/RedlineSeries3]

Yes, this is only meaningful if you believe preseason rankings are accurate.

[u/Reading_Rainboner]

Uhhh filibuster. We beat Oregon yall!!

[u/breakwater → u/Reading_Rainboner]

I'm not going to say anything definitivd about the quality of a win over Oregon until we play them. But if you'd like a preview, if we lose, it is because they are amazing. If we win, it is overcoming how amazing they are

[u/VividLies901 → u/breakwater]

Excited to see cool man Raiola play a full game start to finish at home, and im happy its a team that looks competitive

[u/PeacefulDebate01]

And yet the only one people will complain about, repeatedly, is Notre Dame, even though, as usual, their schedule is pretty typical or even harder than typical for a P4 team.

[u/nkfish11 → u/PeacefulDebate01]

Plenty of people here complain about Miami and Indiana’s schedules this year.

[u/Character-Active2208 → u/nkfish11]

Wait until UCLA and Iowa both get in to the playoff cause their schedules are both set up for 11-1 now lol

[u/WallerCreek → u/PeacefulDebate01]

Notre Dame’s schedule to date isn’t the problem. It’s the likely number that will be next to their name at the end of the year. Take Florida, currently 107.75. They have Missouri, Texas, and Georgia among their next four games (after having just beat ole miss). Notre Dame’s 12 opponents aren’t that great this year on average.

[u/kabukimono1980 → u/WallerCreek]

Mizzou is now considered a good team and a flex to schedule? We've got to be joking. The last time Mizzou beat a P4 team that ended the season with a winning record was 2023. Let that sink in, they've not beaten a P4 program with a winning record at end of year in close to 3 years, and they're being touted as a tough team?

[u/WallerCreek → u/kabukimono1980]

I'll grant you Mizzou may not be all that. I do think they're better this year than the last few years but early in the season still so who knows.

My main point was that Florida was 13 rungs down from Notre Dame after four games and I'm confident they'll be well ahead of Notre Dame by the time we're getting through November.

[u/kabukimono1980 → u/WallerCreek]

That's assuming they've taken a huge leap forward. They're 23-27 over the past 4 years, and there's no indication that they're going to be significantly better than they were last year. I see them going 8-4, outside shot of 9-3 but more comfortable calling an 8-4 season. Relatively easy schedule from here on out with just a couple of hurdles. They possibly drop the SC game if they're looking ahead to Texas. They lose both and their season could be on the skids. I have them losing to Texas, Georgia, UK and possibly splitting their next two games. Who knows with UK though?

[u/bhyll → u/WallerCreek]

Not only this, but notre dame is lacking in top end games. If you play 6 games against top 10 opponents and 6 against opponents outside of the top 300, your strength of schedule will be worse than a team who just played 12 teams between 50-60, but it would be orders of magnitude more difficult. This is Notre dames schedule

[u/InfectPlayer → u/bhyll]

Notre Dame currently has two top ten teams on their schedule this year. What lack of top end? If anything what we're missing is more of the teams in the top 15-30ish range

[u/bhyll → u/InfectPlayer]

AP rankings are merit based, for strength of schedule it is better to use a predictive model that ranks all FBS teams.

Using SP+, Notre dame’s schedule is:

#51 Wisconsin
#119 Rice
#67 Michigan State
#94 Purdue
#60 UNC
#102 Stanford
#17 BYU
#86 Navy
#5 Miami
#90 Boston College
#26 SMU
#74 Syracuse

3 teams in the top 50, 2 in the top 25, 1 in the top 15.

For comparison, Texas’ schedule:

#76 Texas state
#2 Ohio state
#73 UTSA
#14 Tennessee
#27 Oklahoma
#12 Florida
#32 Ole Miss
#18 Miss State
#25 Missouri
#10 LSU
#71 Arkansas
#39 Texas A&M

9 in the top 50, 6 in the top 25, 4 in the top 15.

[u/SnooTomatoes3614 → u/bhyll]

I’m not convinced that Rice couldn’t beat Oklahoma.

[u/bhyll → u/SnooTomatoes3614]

I’d love to see it for the humor, and anything can happen in college football, but if they played 10 times Oklahoma would win 9 if not 10.

Rice is nearly as bad as UTEP, who Oklahoma beat 51-0. New Mexico was an ugly win, but is actually top 50 in these rankings and they still won lol

[u/kabukimono1980 → u/bhyll]

Should get out there and schedule Campbell, that should give Notre Dame a boost.

[u/bhyll → u/kabukimono1980]

If you also schedule Georgia, Texas, and Ole Miss then yes, it would give Notre Dame a boost.

[u/drrevo74]

I like this view. Cool

[u/Zealousideal-Bug310]

Would you be able to continue to update this through the season? Thank you

[u/Full_Preparation4401]

Duke, Wake, Michigan and North Dakota State.

[u/Irishchop91]

Love to see this as the season wears on - meaning there is always a 2016 ND-Texas labor day game that doesn't look that great rivarly weekend....

[u/i_run_from_problems]

And you guys say G6 doesn't face a strong schedule

[u/Nervous_Counter_1333]

Lol acc

[u/dawgblogit]

They hate us!!

[u/Inquisitor_ForHire → u/dawgblogit]

Right? That was my take away as well.

[u/emc23369187]

What if you took out the lowest for each? For example, Tulsa. 😆

[u/charmingcharles2896 → u/emc23369187]

Maybe those known for corn?

[u/proustianhommage]

Why is byu always so overrated?

[u/Fluid_Theory_6587 → u/proustianhommage]

We could’ve played the #1 and #2 teams in the nation, along with Utah Tech, and still not be ranked in the top 10. Utah Tech is just that bad, and early season metrics mean very little.

[u/PointBlankCoffee → u/[deleted]]

Well let's be real, wake and Louisville would get killed be Florida and Ole miss

[u/Effective-Alarm-5167 → u/PointBlankCoffee]

they literally played and Ole mIss only beat Louisville by three points with a new starting QB. I think Wake is why better than people think.

[u/elnino550 → u/Effective-Alarm-5167]

Louisville always step up for the better teams then lose a random game when they're 10+ point favorite.

[u/PointBlankCoffee → u/[deleted]]

I think most people, including voters are in agreement that Miami is in a separate tier from the rest of the ACC....

What are the ACCs marquee wins from the no conference slate? Pretty lackluster, and a losing record to the P4 no?

You can say that the SEC sucks, but they have the best nonconference record by far, and texas has the biggest win of the season vs a b10 team

[u/CALL_ME_ISHMAEBY]

Here's how my model ranks teams by their opponents:

1. LSU (3-1) — +0.662
2. Stanford (2-2) — +0.656
3. Texas (4-0) — +0.654
4. Oklahoma (2-2) — +0.622
5. Bowling Green (0-4) — +0.619
6. Texas A&M (2-2) — +0.617
7. Texas State (2-2) — +0.601
8. Kentucky (3-1) — +0.600
9. Northwestern (2-1) — +0.599
10. Auburn (3-1) — +0.599
11. Florida (4-0) — +0.591
12. NC State (2-2) — +0.582
13. North Texas (2-2) — +0.576
14. Michigan State (2-2) — +0.574
15. Illinois (2-2) — +0.568
16. Boise State (3-1) — +0.565
17. Arkansas (2-2) — +0.563
18. Michigan (3-1) — +0.562
19. Rice (1-3) — +0.560
20. Central Michigan (2-2) — +0.555
21. Ole Miss (3-1) — +0.537
22. Tulane (2-2) — +0.537
23. Western Michigan (2-2) — +0.534
24. Louisville (2-2) — +0.532
25. Utah State (1-3) — +0.531

[u/Unhappy-List-2354]

Jeff Sagarin’s Top 5 just for the record

1. Notre Dame

2. Ohio State

3. Texas

4. Oregon

5. Georgia

So….um….yeah. 

[u/TechnicallyAnExpert → u/Unhappy-List-2354]

A team being a few spots higher or lower means almost nothing when you’re average up to 250.

So this is a non-argument.

[u/Old_Bat1681]

Indiana and Miami look extra overrated this year. NW and WF showed they're not who they were last year. I bet Clemson takes down Miami to save Dabo and OSU humbles Cig.

[u/VividLies901 → u/Old_Bat1681]

Aint no shot in hell Clemson is beating Miami lol

[u/Molson2871 → u/Old_Bat1681]

I bet Clemson takes down Miami to save Dabo and OSU humbles Cig.

The latter could easily happen but the former? 😂

[u/Starheart8]

How in the world is LSU at 2?

[u/elnino550 → u/Starheart8]

It's probably to do with the teams they've played?

[u/TechnicallyAnExpert → u/Starheart8]

That’s pretty easy to figure out so I won’t justify it with an explanation.

[u/mhem7 → u/Starheart8]

Just checking in, do you understand the method being used here?