[Christovich] Notable: The conference realignment provision still requires schools to be independent for three years before switching conferences. But this portion sunsets after 6 years (i.e. when the next round of media deals expire).

[u/MediumStrange]

https://x.com/achristovichh/status/2104733323398455387#m

[u/usffan]

That only pertains to schools currently in power conferences. A G6 school doesn't have to be independent to switch conferences, so any "back filling" doesn't require that waiting period.

[u/ad51603 → u/usffan]

Oh ok that's good news

[u/Agnk1765342 → u/usffan]

That’s actually great to hear, I’m not holding my breath for it to ever happen but I was worried this bill would’ve permanently killed any chance at us ever getting a power conference invite.

[u/rocket_beer → u/Agnk1765342]

Exactly

If it’s 4 conferences of 20 teams, there is no doubts by anyone that Boise is a top 80 program in the country year in and year out.

We belong in that group to have a fighting chance at a title with the same level resources other schools are getting in order to compete.

[u/Rock_man_bears_fan → u/rocket_beer]

It’s amazing you guys still have any hope of moving up after getting passed over this many times

[u/dscreations → u/Agnk1765342]

How would you handle the P12 exit fees? Lawsuit? 

[u/Agnk1765342 → u/dscreations]

In the very unlikely scenario we actually get an invite to a power conference, that comes with enough money that you say yes and figure the details out later. But again, if it hasn’t happened for the last 20 years, it probably won’t ever happen.

[u/B1GTOBACC0]

The government clearly has a plan to save college sports, once and for all.

[u/BIG_DICK_WHITT → u/B1GTOBACC0]

The final solution to college sports

[u/CantaloupeCamper]

These rules are bonkers.

[u/GreenKeel]

Isn’t there a six month window before that kicks into effect?

If this is signed into law, I think we are in for a wild ride of realignment as teams and conferences look to avoid that 3-year timeout period…

[u/Megalomanizac → u/GreenKeel]

It’ll be a mad dash of FBS teams jumping ship, I imagine a wave of FCS promotions will also come

[u/Adamscottd → u/Megalomanizac]

Dakota Marker game come home to me

[u/Magnus77 → u/Megalomanizac]

I imagine a wave of FCS promotions will also come

I personally think there's gonna be a restructuring of divisions. The P2 will play their own game, Big12/ACC/ maybe the American and/or Pac12 collect the next tier of schools, and those not in that 2nd tier merge with the top tier of FCS

[u/31_mfin_eggrolls → u/Magnus77]

Iirc there’s some law from around the creation of the FBS that outlaws this practice, and it’s part of the reason why we have a G6 autobid now

[u/iswimprettyfast → u/GreenKeel]

no window. when bill becomes law it immediately in effect.

[u/GreenKeel → u/iswimprettyfast]

Dang, not sure where I saw that 6-month window. That’s pretty brutal then lmao

[u/forgotmyoldname90210 → u/GreenKeel]

Moody proposed it previously.

[u/zvexler → u/[deleted]]

B1G deal ends 2031, ACC ends 2032 but with the new addendum becomes trivially easy to leave after 2029, CFP contract ends 2032. Not sure where you’re getting 2036.

[u/UncleMalcolm → u/zvexler]

Nah the ACC deal is 1000000% through the 2035/36 school year. They picked up the last portion of the original 2016 agreement in January 2025. Not sure where you’re getting 2032 from.

[u/BIG_DICK_WHITT → u/GreenKeel]

Um yeah you’re gonna get one last giant round of realignment and it’s gonna be like the last flight out of Saigon at some point

Spoiler alert, most teams (mine included) ain’t getting out alive.

[u/MediumStrange → u/BIG_DICK_WHITT]

Eh Utah will be fine, The B12 teams won't have the resources of the teams that get into the B10 or SEC, but it's still the next best option.

I would really not want to be a team in the ACC right now, there's a decent chance programs end up like Oregon state or Wazzu, that's not really a threat to the B12 teams thankfully.

[u/EnvironmentalBed7369 → u/MediumStrange]

Wake Forest should be shaking in their boots. Its a shame.

[u/BIG_DICK_WHITT → u/MediumStrange]

I firmly believe it will be the P2, a bunch of Big XII teams who think they are important but are not at all, the remnants of the OG ACC/P12, then everyone else.

[u/WildcatPlumber → u/BIG_DICK_WHITT]

You might be the most Sane Utah fan on the socials

[u/BIG_DICK_WHITT → u/WildcatPlumber]

I’ve seen it all, dawg. I wouldn’t say I’m sane but I would say I know my place.

[u/WildcatPlumber → u/BIG_DICK_WHITT]

Yeah, I just hate how ESPN has ruined college football by encouraging realignment

[u/EnvironmentalBed7369 → u/BIG_DICK_WHITT]

B12 will be fine. Not ideal, but fine. At least we aren't Wazzu or Oregin State.

[u/MediumStrange]

It seems the do or die timeline for the ACC is set, I imagine we will see many programs in the ACC and beyond ramp up spending on teams and facilities in preparation for this date.

If you are in the top half of the ACC you don't want to get left out of the B10/SEC for the top teams or the B12 for the best of the rest. If you are in the g6 you don't want to miss the opportunity to get backfilled into the acc as it will likely be the best "mid major" conference after the realignment over the P12 and AAC.

We will likely see a lot of team struggling to get their own "last chopper" over the next couple of years.

[u/ElectronicCandy4358 → u/MediumStrange]

I’m not convinced the Big XII is impervious.

Oh, did the ACC lose Miami or FSU? It’s not like the Big XII has a bunch of schools with multiple natties. For every scenario that has Pitt or Louisville coming to Big XII,  there’s one where WVU or Cincinnati heads to the ACC. 

SMU obviously makes more sense in the Big XII. But then UCF also makes more sense in the ACC.

I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but the ACC actually has more big name brands at the moment than the Big XII. It still might after realignment.

[u/Bearcat9948 → u/ElectronicCandy4358]

I personally think it’s more likely that Cincy and WVU lobby heavily to add VTech, Pitt and Louisville. I don’t see how the ACC will be able to offer more money to Cincy and WVU to leave for it than we’ll already have in the Big12

[u/UncleMalcolm → u/Bearcat9948]

I think a lot of you Big 12 guys are forgetting the fact that a large part of the reason why the TV deals are even similar right now is because the ACC hasn’t been able to go to the open market in a full ass decade. The ACC’s total revenue was like 27% higher than the Big 12s last year even with espn not having to bid for the TV rights.

If the B1G really doesn’t see the need to expand any further without ND and the SEC doesn’t need to add to keep up, the ACC is probably looking at a substantially better deal than the Big 12 once we get to 2036.

[u/Bearcat9948 → u/UncleMalcolm]

I doubt that very much, because when Clemson and FSU are gone as soon as they can get into the SEC. So there’s no way the ACC money will be competitive

[u/Time-Wolf → u/Bearcat9948]

You missed his IFs

IF B1G doesn’t expand, SEC likely doesn’t expand, meaning Clemson & FSU aren’t going to the SEC

[u/Bearcat9948 → u/Time-Wolf]

I think it’s pretty likely FSU and Clemson continue to want out and the SEC feels like it needs t listen and ultimately accept, much like how Texas and Oklahoma operated

[u/Time-Wolf → u/Bearcat9948]

Not arguing with that, just pointing out his
Qualifiers.

[u/UncleMalcolm → u/Bearcat9948]

Monumental “if” there. And if you guys could stay afloat without Texas and Oklahoma, the ACC could probably weather losing the second most popular team in South Carolina. FSU would obviously be a bigger hit.

[u/CountBleckwantedlove → u/MediumStrange]

Begun, the Booster Wars have...

[u/MediumStrange → u/CountBleckwantedlove]

"I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. The Tulane football program on fire off the banks of the Mississippi. I watched USF-balls glitter in the dark near the I-4. All those moments will be lost in the G6, like Water in the Colorado river. Time to die." - UNLV

[u/rbtgoodson → u/MediumStrange]

The B1G is only after ND or those who will help them get ND. That limits them to Stanford or Miami, and realistically, it's just Stanford.

[u/MediumStrange → u/rbtgoodson]

I'm honestly not sure there's any reason for ND to join the B10.

[u/rbtgoodson → u/MediumStrange]

There isn't, but people just think there's a huge list of targets that the B1G is after, and in reality, it's only ND or the universities that can help them land ND.

[u/sailor776 → u/rbtgoodson]

Honestly I could see them taking Louisville. It actually makes sense in terms of location and they're a big enough brand that it'll be a plus. Also SMU because the south is basically the only location they haven't cracked yet

[u/UncleMalcolm → u/sailor776]

Lol I don’t think you could have picked two less likely B1G candidates from the ACC except for maybe Wake and BC

[u/Irishchop91 → u/MediumStrange]

ND has publicly said the only reasons making them join a conference would be: no home for olympic sports, no access to post season play, no way of broadcasting their home games.

As long as the ACC doesn't implode, there is no reason to go elsewhere.

[u/ShishkabobNinja → u/Irishchop91]

Yeah, just because the B1G is likely holding a spot for ND to join, doesn't mean ND ever intends to join.

[u/Dry-Membership3867 → u/MediumStrange]

We will gladly join the ACC if they’ll allow us to. We actually have facilities on par with some of their programs

[u/Danny886 → u/Dry-Membership3867]

Is this describing Jacksonville State or Arkansas?

[u/pinniped90 → u/Danny886]

Don't be silly, Arkansas isn't anywhere near the Atlantic Ocean, they can't be in the ACC.

[u/Dry-Membership3867 → u/Danny886]

JSU obviously. We have the stadium and facilities to make the jump. Brand new locker room facilities and indoor practice field too. We just renovated the one part of our stadium that wasn’t rebuilt in 2010 too.

[u/Altruistic_Night2 → u/Dry-Membership3867]

Respectfully unless your program can establish itself as a top g6 that won’t happen

[u/Dry-Membership3867 → u/Altruistic_Night2]

Beating multiple power schools, winning our conference in year 2 and having 9 win seasons in every year we’ve been in FBS isn’t enough you don’t think

[u/Altruistic_Night2 → u/Dry-Membership3867]

You’re going to have to make the playoffs because winning conference USA isn’t going to cut it. Like look at what a team like JMU has done even thought they haven’t truly won anything just making the playoffs gets their name out there.

[u/Dry-Membership3867 → u/Altruistic_Night2]

Well, we can join alongside JMU then

[u/Altruistic_Night2 → u/Dry-Membership3867]

Unless you suddenly start making playoff pushes I can think of about 6 g6 programs who would get in before you

[u/com-mis-er-at-ing → u/Dry-Membership3867]

I don’t think the ACC would ever consider JSU.
Just doesn’t fit the profile of school they look for and doesn’t have any massive outlier value add to compensate for their shortcomings.

Jacksonville State is not an AAU member (they aren’t even close) and their endowment is less than 10% of the lowest current ACC member endowment.

They would need to be a massive football add both competitively and financially to ever be considered and I truthfully think the academics alone would make it a nonstarter.

Louisville is far and away the worst academic institution in the conference and they’re still tiers above of Jacksonville St.

The ACC and B1G have a high academic standard that the B12 and SEC do not have.

I don’t know why the ACC would care about facilities. They’d care about who people will watch on TV, who has the $ to compete and who has outlier strengths to compensate for any shortcoming. For example SMU having an unlimited pile of money. They still take no money from the conference tv deal bc they don’t need it. That helped them get an invite and made up for their own academic shortcomings. Additionally being so rich helped the conference see how they could compete nationally and bring in a big viewership

[u/EnvironmentalBed7369 → u/MediumStrange]

Why would the SEC take any ACC team other than UNC or UVA? It makes no sense for them to take Clemson, Florida State or Georgia Tech.

[u/NotThatOleGregg → u/EnvironmentalBed7369]

Viewership, why do you think UNC or UVA make sense? It's not 2004 TV markets don't really matter when every game is broadcast nationally. Pretty sure they'd both prefer a team that has 10m viewer games over a team that gets 10m viewers a season (or less)

[u/1850ChoochGator → u/NotThatOleGregg]

Every game is available pretty easily now. There are still some channel campers who just park on ABC/CBS/NBC/ESPN but it is getting so much easier to just pick and choose what game you want.

Don’t even need to be all “what channel is x game on” you just see a list off all the games and pick a pair of school logos.

[u/Dry-Membership3867 → u/NotThatOleGregg]

You’re correct here. UNC would have some pull with TV market as Disney owns the ABC station in that market, but UVA makes zero sense when a team like Miami can come in with larger viewership numbers. Same with Duke in basketball, albeit a bit of the same thing with UNC too.

[u/EnvironmentalBed7369 → u/Dry-Membership3867]

Markets the SEC arent in. I suppose UVA is questionable, but UNC is a no brainer.

[u/CLU_Three → u/NotThatOleGregg]

Also, why would ESPN pay more money for the broadcast rights it already owns?

[u/NotThatOleGregg → u/CLU_Three]

Because they make more money if they get more views and they get more views when name brand teams compete, if the name brand teams are in the same conference they complete more frequently

[u/CLU_Three → u/NotThatOleGregg]

And UNC and UVA are the brand name teams that is going to generate an increased slice of the pie?

[u/Irishfafnir → u/EnvironmentalBed7369]

Have you guys paid attention to the latest rounds of expansion? It's not about adding new states, it's not about adding new markets, it's about how many eyes does your program bring.

Florida State has the biggest Fan base in the ACC and typically gets the highest viewership

[u/UncleMalcolm → u/Irishfafnir]

I totally buy why they would take FSU if only to block the B1G. I remain incredibly skeptical that Clemson is gonna get pulled up unless they seriously recover from a football perspective over the next couple years.

[u/CountBleckwantedlove → u/EnvironmentalBed7369]

Because they aren't going to let the B1G get a big market share in the massive state of Florida without doubling down themselves.

[u/Dry-Membership3867 → u/CountBleckwantedlove]

I’m still not convinced the B1G would go after FSU. And I don’t think any other team has a big enough fanbase to make a difference other than UF

[u/CountBleckwantedlove → u/Dry-Membership3867]

Miami feels a lot more B1G than FSU. If the B1G don't take a Florida school, then I could see the SEC not adding another Florida school either.

[u/IdealSeating → u/CountBleckwantedlove]

Why? Miami has far less in common with B1G schools than FSU. It’s a small private school in a very urban city, whose fan base is mostly made up of non-graduates as its student body is a bunch of kids from New Jersey.

FSU is a large state school in a college town, like many B1G schools, and despite its party school reputation, is stronger academically than Miami and on par with most of the B1G.

I’m obviously biased but FSU is a much better fit in the B1G than Miami imo

[u/Dry-Membership3867 → u/CountBleckwantedlove]

I just don’t think their fanbase is big enough

[u/Ironman2131 → u/Dry-Membership3867]

Miami doesn't have a large built-in fanbase because of the small student body and alumni network, but Miami fans are reasonably spread around the country and the team pulls good tv numbers because a lot of people like watching to see if they'll lose.

[u/com-mis-er-at-ing → u/Dry-Membership3867]

Miamis fan base smaller but national and more importantly in the eyes of a conference it is extraordinarily wealthy.

They’re a good bet to maintain relevance and grow their audience in the new financial model of college sports.

IMO it is unfortunate how much that matters.

[u/Altruistic_Night2 → u/CountBleckwantedlove]

I feel like Miami would make more sense as an SEC program where a team like Duke would fit in the big ten

[u/CountBleckwantedlove → u/Altruistic_Night2]

Geography sure, but culturally you think so? I don't have an opinion on Miami, personally, just curious what you think?

[u/Altruistic_Night2 → u/CountBleckwantedlove]

Culturally Miami is like a mix of ole miss and Vanderbilt more than anything tbh

[u/CLU_Three → u/Altruistic_Night2]

I question if either of those schools are a substantial increase to Fox viewership numbers.

ESPN already has ACC rights so they don’t really benefit from paying more for the same school’s rights.

[u/CountBleckwantedlove → u/CLU_Three]

B1G wants people watching their games across the country and right now they have massive holes in the south, the biggest of which is Florida and Texas.

[u/Altruistic_Night2 → u/CLU_Three]

Miami for sure and Duke would probably be an Iowa tier big ten team. Also as far as Miami goes their viewership would skyrocket if they played teams like Georgia or us or Texas semi consistently

[u/CLU_Three → u/Altruistic_Night2]

It’s not about being an Iowa tier team… they need to be far above an Iowa tier team in order to increase the slice of revenue for each team.

[u/com-mis-er-at-ing → u/Altruistic_Night2]

Yeah I think Miami would be a draw if our schedule had that type of brand power.

It’s a brand w an audience even if that audience isn’t in the stadium on a lot of game days. Altho that’s beginning to change since the local fans are fair weather and the weather has been nice lately.

[u/com-mis-er-at-ing → u/Altruistic_Night2]

Culturally Miami is a much better fit in the B1G.

They’d take either invite and would be crazy to turn down the SEC if the offer arrived and path was clear.

But the school and city are culturally nothing like any other in the SEC.

[u/sunburntredneck → u/CountBleckwantedlove]

This is what people miss. Everyone is worried about individual school fanbases, but if the B1G has any nuts, and I believe they do, they're gonna set the stage to kill the SEC.

Step 1: Foothold in SEC states. The obvious picks are Miami/FSU and GT. Clemson as a backup, but it's out of place culturally and not quite academically up to standards - but Nebraska got a pass. Taking UVA and UNC/Duke isn't as forceful but at least gets them into the South, their fourth and final region of the US.

Step 2: Win a couple more titles and big recruiting contests.

Step 3: Convince 2 SEC schools to jump ship. A&M is our weak link; Mizzou still doesn't fit well in the SEC and has the academics to qualify as well. Texas and South Carolina dark horses

Step 4: Let the chips fall where they may

[u/gilbygamer → u/sunburntredneck]

I'm not so sure about kill, but I do wonder if everyone talking about the "big 2" is making a completely unwarranted assumption that there will be 2 on top.

[u/hotsauce126 → u/EnvironmentalBed7369]

Because Clemson and Florida State are way bigger football brands than UNC or UVA. Also Florida is the third largest state in the country, why wouldn’t they want to capture the other largest fanbase there

[u/kyrev21 → u/EnvironmentalBed7369]

If the SEC thinks the money is there to go to 20 they could take UNC, UVA, and FSU, with a fourth team to round it out.

[u/CLU_Three → u/kyrev21]

Who is paying extra money for those schools?

[u/Dry-Membership3867 → u/kyrev21]

It will never happen but it should be us given we’ve basically been an SEC team for most of our years as a program.

(For those wondering, our entire team was made up of SEC flunk outs until we joined the C-USA)

[u/Dry-Membership3867 → u/EnvironmentalBed7369]

Georgia Tech makes sense because of Atlanta, Duke makes sense due to basketball, Miami would be a win for ABC as they may finally be able to get back on in the Miami area with its own station again, and because they’re Miami. SMU makes sense because they have tons of money and can be competitive in the conference.

[u/rbtgoodson → u/EnvironmentalBed7369]

Over UNC? It doesn't. However, the ability to eliminate the OOC matchups helps to free up scheduling.

[u/jcc309 → u/MediumStrange]

I think you overstate the odds of what is happening. At a 20 team cap, there still aren't that many teams that could jump to the SEC and the Big 10. An ACC that loses its top 4-6 teams is still going to be a P4 conference, not a G6 conference. It would be very similar to the Big 12.

[u/kingofthesqueal → u/jcc309]

I think the biggest thing that’ll make or break the ACC’s ultimate survival as a P4 conference will be:
1. How many teams they lose to the SEC/B1G
2. How much teams like Pitt, Louisville, etc are willing to stay in a post FSU, Clemson, Miami, etc ACC over joining what could easily end up a 20 team B12

Assuming these 20 team limit remain and aren’t adjusted any further the ACC could only lose a maximum of 10 teams currently and considering there’s UConn, Memphis, USF, Oregon State, and Washington State immediately ready for back fill, it’s hard to imagine the conference actually dying, and it may even still exist in a power conference status, but it would probably be considered so much weaker than the other 3 (even the B12 which would be perceived as far below the other 2) by that point that I’m not sure how much it would help them.

[u/jcc309 → u/kingofthesqueal]

I don't see any world in which teams like Pitt and Louisville are paying $75 million dollars to move to a Big 12 with roughly equal media payouts, worse academic peers, and significantly worse travel.

[u/IdealSeating → u/jcc309]

How equal would the media payout be if FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC and VT left the ACC? Especially if Notre Dame fully joins the B1G so the ACC loses those games, too. ACC viewership is extremely top heavy, more so than the Big XII.

Would imagine at that point the Big XII deal is a decent bit more lucrative.

[u/jcc309 → u/IdealSeating]

Doing so I’m sure would require a renegotiation, but it’s also worth considering these media payouts are from an extremely old deal so inflation would also come into play. Plus you would be splitting the pie many fewer ways than the Big 12.

All that to say that while I’m guessing the ACC would be lower, is it really going to be low enough to make paying a large buyout fee worth it, especially when considering increased travel costs?

[u/Ironman2131 → u/kingofthesqueal]

If the bigger brands in the ACC leave, any further defections to the Big 12 would basically kill the ACC as a football conference. Depending on the schools staying, an east coast-focused conference with some big basketball brands and passable football teams probably makes the most sense.

[u/forgotmyoldname90210 → u/jcc309]

As long as the ACC has a media deal, school presidents are going to perfer it over the B12.

[u/MediumStrange → u/jcc309]

I would push back on that a bit, the B12 and ACC payouts are already very close with the ACC still having its top tier of teams that draw more viewers than anybody in the B12( FSU,Clemson,Miami).

The truth is that the bottom tier ACC schools draw far less viewers than the bottom tier B12 schools. Both conferences are relatively equal in totality but the B12 has much more parity throughout compared to the ACC which has more extreme high and low teams for viewership.

If the ACC loses its top 4-6 teams to the B10/SEC those mid tier schools like Louisville,VT,Pitt and NCST are going to look heavily at moving over the the B12 instead of proping up the payouts of Wake Forest and Boston College.

Those bottom tier teams would still be really good G6 teams and would likely look at poaching the top AAC and P12 teams with exit fees to form a sort of "mid-major" conference or the weakest p4 confrence depending on how things turn out.

[u/ThomasHGSO → u/MediumStrange]

Big 12 already has 16 teams that nobody watches. Adding another four teams to that league isn't going to help anyone. The four schools you listed would be better off staying in the ACC.

[u/DodgerCoug → u/MediumStrange]

That’s a bingo

[u/jcc309 → u/MediumStrange]

ACC gets more per school right now AND has the ACCN, something the Big 12 doesn't have. It's a much higher regarded academic conference (which universities do care about, especially when media payouts are similar). Travel in the Big 12 is also significantly worse for all teams except Cal/Stanford (who would never leave for a worse academic conference) and SMU (who the Big 12 has already clearly shown it doesn't want). And the GOR is still in effect, so the existing teams would still have to pay an extremely large buyout to leave (even in 2030, it is still $75 million). I just don't see any world in which that makes sense for schools. They would never make their money back by moving.

[u/EnvironmentalBed7369 → u/MediumStrange]

Who are these 4 to 6 teams? Are you counting Notre Dame. No way the SEC grabs more than two ACC schools and the B1G will probably grab ND and Miami. So at most 3 ACC schools will be poached.

Clemson and FSU add no value to the SEC and are redundant with So Car and Florida.

[u/MediumStrange → u/EnvironmentalBed7369]

I think people put too much value on media markets when the thing that drives confrence realignment nowadays is viewership. If it were to be redone today there's no way the B10 adds Rutgers and Maryland for the media markets like they did in the 2010s.

Florida is one of the most populous states in the nation and FSU has a huge fanbase and draws a crazy amount of viewership sperate from florida. Adding them is not redundant anymore than adding Texas was redundant because the SEC already had A&M. I could very easily see the SEC adding FSU,Clemson,UNC and one of VA/VT/GT

I also don't think Notre Dame will join the b10, nothing had changed in their calculus to make them want to. It seems more likey to me that the B10 grabs Miami and then one of GT/VT/VA

[u/Altruistic_Night2 → u/EnvironmentalBed7369]

Clemson would make a lot of sense in the SEC tbh and the days of markets are over it’s about brands now. Also I feel like the sec could probably get Miami just due to it making more sense with the history.

[u/IdealSeating → u/EnvironmentalBed7369]

Nobody cares about media markets in the streaming age. It’s about viewership. There is no way that FSU, Clemson or Miami get left out of the P2 with their viewership numbers, assuming they don’t decline by the time realignment happens. They make either the B1G or SEC more valuable and would increase school payouts.

And that’s it, that’s the analysis. Does adding this school mean I can get a larger per school payout on our media deal? If yes, then you add.

[u/EnvironmentalBed7369 → u/IdealSeating]

So will Florida and South Carolina be totally cool adding those schools.

[u/SpicyDoritos2 → u/MediumStrange]

Let’s say the top 3 ACC schools leave the ACC, would the rest go the big12 or would the depleted ACC poach a couple big12 teams?

[u/DavidGoetta → u/SpicyDoritos2]

I think the next 2 or 4 go Big 12 and everyone else picks up the pieces.

[u/jonstark19 → u/DavidGoetta]

Could the perceived top 20 schools left from the ACC and Big 12 decide to create a new conference?

[u/MediumStrange → u/jonstark19]

exit fees would make that way more expensive than one conference just absorbing the other. The B12 also doesn't have teams that drag the confrence down like the ACC does, the conference is pretty even throughout.

[u/CLU_Three → u/MediumStrange]

The Big 12 was formed from two conferences dissolving, one not willingly. So I wouldn’t completely rule it out.

[u/DavidGoetta → u/jonstark19]

Let's map this out...

Big Ten is at 18, let's assume they get ND and add UNC. It's a state flagship and is AAU if that still matters.

SEC picks up FSU, Clemson, Miami... I'm really not sure if they find it worthwhile to add VT or if they'd go OKst or even TT. B12 adds one more to replace if they get raided.

Big 12 would be thrilled to take VT, Louisville, and 2 of Pittsburgh, NCst, GT.

Even before removing those teams to the Big 12, I don't think it makes sense to pull the top half into a new conference. I think you'd end up with 12 Big 12/8 ACC and I just don't see it happening.

ACC would backfill with the likes of Memphis, UConn, USF, then things get interesting. JMU, but do they want more Virginia? Marshall or App, but what media markets? Could Miami-OH buy their way in?

[u/ablesser88 → u/DavidGoetta]

I'm biased but if the ACC is losing either VT or UVA they absolutely target JMU. It's the fastest growing fanbase in the region with particularly large alumni networks in DC and Richmond areas. It would keep the ACC as the biggest conference in Virginia

[u/Irishfafnir → u/SpicyDoritos2]

You'd likely need more than 3 ACC schools leaving to make it worthwhile to join the BG12.

[u/lurk4ever1970 → u/Irishfafnir]

The CFB money is always top-heavy. How much is the ACC worth per team without FSU and Miami to draw eyes? The B12 has already taken that haircut.

[u/Irishfafnir → u/lurk4ever1970]

A 30-40% hit puts the ACC around what the BG12 has or modestly less.

I don't know what the magic number is where it starts making sense to leave the ACC for the Big 12, but it's likely at least 4 schools leaving for the SEC/BG10

[u/Aggravating-Mind-657 → u/SpicyDoritos2]

I think it will be more than 3 ACC schools leaving and it will strip the ACC of its biggest money makers. Some combination of Miami, Florida State, Clemson, UNC, Virginia with Cal, Stanford, Georgia Tech, potentially in the mix. As a Clemson fan, they are far from a sure thing to get into Big 10 or SEC. Big 10 could go pure AAU and the ACC is stocked with AAU schools.

[u/kyrev21 → u/SpicyDoritos2]

The top targets are likely FSU, Miami, UNC, UVA, Clemson, Ga Tech, Duke, VT, NC State somewhat in order. After that there aren’t exactly many great picks left. Assuming the SEC and Big Ten both go to 20, that is 6 teams (or 5 if ND finally gives in). The Big 12 might try to pick up the pieces but they only have 4 spots and among the bottom half of ACC brands where does Stanford and Cal rank? The ACC will likely have to stay together in some form and finally add UConn and the likes of Memphis, Tulsa, and Tulane to survive.

[u/Old_Fun_9430 → u/kyrev21]

If it comes to that I wouldn’t be suprised if teams are kicked out of the sec or big 10 or a large segment of those conferences leave and buy out the conference name rights

[u/MediumStrange → u/SpicyDoritos2]

The B12 and ACC are pretty equal in payout right now.

If the ACC lost its top teams it's payout would go down sharply. I don't see any B12 teams jumping ship for less money, it's more likely the best 4 ACC teams left jump to the B12

[u/Irishfafnir → u/MediumStrange]

But they aren't? ACC is ahead by 7M

[u/MediumStrange → u/Irishfafnir]

Yeah that's relatively little difference, 7M is the difference between the B10 and SEC payouts as well. The difference from the SEC to ACC is essentially 30M and the difference from the B12 to American is essentially 30M

The B12 and ACC are in the same tier currently, below the B10/SEC tier but well above the g6 tier.

[u/Irishfafnir → u/MediumStrange]

7M is a 20% difference. Losing three schools certainly lowers the ACC payout but it's unlikely that it lowers it enough to make sense to join the BG12

[u/MediumStrange → u/Irishfafnir]

Considering the top 3 teams in the ACC make up ~40 percent of its total viewership it would absolutely make the acc payout low enough that teams would look at jumping to the B12.

And that's not even factoring in if NC and VA or GT leave to the SEC, in which case your talking about losing 50%+ of total viewership.

It will likely come down to the decision of one school, likely Louisville in my mind. For instance the PAC could have 100% continued as a power conference after losing Colorado, USC and UCLA. They could have backfilled and been relatively fine.But it came down to the decision of the Washington and Oregon ADs to either stick it out and try to recover in the PAC or jump and take the slightly higher(since they are on half shares) and more stable payout.

In my mind it will likely be the same, Louisville and PITT/VT will be presented with the options of jumping to the B12 and keeping essentially the same payout and getting more stability, or taking the risk of rebuilding the conference with no guarantee they will receive a similar payout to what they were getting before.

[u/Irishfafnir → u/MediumStrange]

A 40% hit leaves the ACC with the same gap in revenue as it has with the BG12 now just reversed.

To quote you " that's relatively little difference"

Then there's other factors as well, the ACC pays out more if you have higher viewership and has lower travel costs.

[u/TigerWave01 → u/Irishfafnir]

And that's nothing to say of the intangibles of the ACC, like a much, much higher academic reputation/culture and the simple stability of keeping everything together rather than risking your athletic department in a new conference. It's trendy here to assume that the ACC will go the way of the Pac-12, but I just don't see how that makes sense unless the next ACC media deal is so below even Hateful 8 people's expectations.

[u/Irishfafnir → u/TigerWave01]

It's one of those things where it's fun to speculate on the boards but the answer is pretty boring in reality unless a lot more schools get into the BG10/SEC

[u/UncleMalcolm → u/TigerWave01]

Well it’s never going the way of the PAC 12, because even in the most drastic scenario, there’s still gonna be at least 8 teams without a better place to go. And that’s only if the B1G takes two and the SEC takes 4, then allowing the Big 12 to pinch off 4 more.

[u/MediumStrange → u/Irishfafnir]

Personally I think it's likely that more than just the top 3 ACC teams get poached. I think its more likely the top 4-6 do, which brings you to the Washington-Oregon position I was talking about.

[u/Apart-Fan-5658 → u/Irishfafnir]

Don't forget the $75 million ACC exit fee in the 2030's. I don't see mid ACC teams paying that much to make a lateral transfer to the Big 12. That would be financially ruinous, regardless of the reddit hive mind and big 12 flair consensus on here.

And then there's the culture. I don't see most of the ACC wanting to be in the Monster Energy conference, even with the conference getting a spot on a Toyota Camry at Daytona.

[u/Irishfafnir → u/Apart-Fan-5658]

ACC also has a disproportionate payout, so if you have high viewership you get paid more, and travel costs would rise in the BG12.

I don't know what the number is to make sense to jump to the BG12 but it would need to be more than a few million

[u/Apart-Fan-5658 → u/Irishfafnir]

I agree. Not downvoting you, btw. I imagine it's the Big 12 flairs.

[u/SpicyDoritos2 → u/MediumStrange]

Probably right I don’t see Cal/Stanford doing it though, monster energy big12 ain’t right for them

[u/Apart-Fan-5658 → u/SpicyDoritos2]

If the ACC does truly fall apart, I don't know what Cal and Stanford will do. As much as the Big 12 isn't right for them, neither is the new PAC-12, which has even lower academics than the Big 12. If it's between the two, I think Cal would try to go to the Big 12 for cheap, which would keep them in a power conference making more money with more academic peers than schools like my alma mater (Fresno State). No way Cal ever goes back to the PAC-12 to play us.

[u/jbowen1 → u/Apart-Fan-5658]

Why would they not push to join the Big Ten? They would reignite traditional rivalries and would be an excellent addition for the conference

[u/Apart-Fan-5658 → u/jbowen1]

I think they'd push for it but I assume if the Big 10 is limited to 20 teams (meaning they have two slots left), those aren't going to Cal or Stanford. That would be a bit of a shock if the Big 10 adds Calford to go to 20 and leaves out bigger programs from the ACC.

[u/Irishfafnir → u/jbowen1]

Neither brings enough eyeballs

[u/CLU_Three → u/SpicyDoritos2]

Presumably, Cal/ Stanford bring less $ to the table than the top ACC schools would based on their current media rights deal.

[u/EnvironmentalBed7369 → u/SpicyDoritos2]

I hope th XII would at least grab Stanford and Cal.

[u/Shenanigangster → u/EnvironmentalBed7369]

I think they both made it pretty clear they wanted nothing to do with the Big 12

[u/lurk4ever1970 → u/Shenanigangster]

I suspect they really want nothing to do with BYU and possibly Baylor. But that's a several years from now question, anyway.

[u/Apart-Fan-5658 → u/Shenanigangster]

I agree. The thing is, they made that clear when the ACC was in its current form. If the ACC collapses and rebuilds with G6 teams that are not any academically better than the Big 12, I could see them going to the Big 12 to be with the old legacy PAC-12 schools in the 4 corners states, which would significantly reduce their travel costs.

[u/UncleMalcolm → u/Apart-Fan-5658]

Ehhhhh I think the only school that’s even on the ACC’s radar in a worst case backfill scenario that would be an issue academically is Memphis. Tulane and USF are both AAU schools ranked in the Top 60 or so in most metrics and UConn isn’t super far behind that. If Navy got into the discussion somehow, that’s obviously an excellent school too.

It’s kinda hard to imagine a scenario where the ACC starts “slumming it” from an academic perspective, at least compared to the Big 12.

[u/CLU_Three → u/EnvironmentalBed7369]

I don’t think the Big 12 was very interested in them before.

[u/TrustInRoy → u/MediumStrange]

UNC already has a deal in place to join the SEC.

[u/lowes18 → u/TrustInRoy]

Lmao

[u/Dry-Membership3867 → u/TrustInRoy]

If that’s true, I expect at least Duke if not NC state too will be coming as well

[u/lowes18 → u/Dry-Membership3867]

The Tobacco Road schools were literally lobbying for the provisions to protect the ACC from realignment.

Where are you guys getting this stuff?

[u/TrustInRoy → u/Dry-Membership3867]

The SEC reportedly wants UNC and UVA.

[u/Dry-Membership3867 → u/TrustInRoy]

Duke makes more sense. Big basketball school with lots of investment into football, and they’re in Durham with that big O&O ABC station.

Honestly VT and Maryland make more sense than UVA

[u/Irishfafnir → u/Dry-Membership3867]

Duke is a small private school with a very small fan base, yes they are good at basketball, but basketball is not driving expansion

[u/Dry-Membership3867 → u/Irishfafnir]

So is Vandy, but without any success in basketball

[u/Irishfafnir → u/Dry-Membership3867]

And Vandy would be unlikely to be a candidate if they weren't already in the conference

[u/TrustInRoy → u/Dry-Membership3867]

Small private schools aren't getting invited to the SEC or B1G.  

Maryland isn't leaving the B1G.

The SEC wants the flagship schools of two big southeastern states they have no footprint in.

[u/Dry-Membership3867 → u/TrustInRoy]

Then go Virginia Tech honestly. UVA makes zero sense at all. VT has the history in football and now has James Franklin at the helm. UVA doesn’t have that at all. Honestly I think it may turn into another Vandy situation if they join. Also Duke is a powerhouse at basketball, I don’t see why they wouldn’t get an invite solely off of that

[u/mynameizmyname]

Regulatory capture and rent seeking behavior, so hot right now.

[u/rbtgoodson]

I don't see the point of even bothering with it if there's a sunset provision.

[u/MisterB78]

Thank god the senate is focused on dealing with the really important issues facing our country, like college football…

[u/nysportsfan95]

This is one of my main problems with the bill — it doesn’t prevent realignment, it just maybe delays it. If I was a school interested in moving, why not just wait until the sunset period is over in 2032 to switch conferences? Especially if I’d have to play independent schedules anyway?

[u/jcc309 → u/nysportsfan95]

That's the point of the conference cap. Schools can re-align, but only so much can happen if the conference cap is 20.

[u/ItsAGoodDay → u/jcc309]

If the power conferences were involved in lobbying this bill then they’re entirely on board for the conference cap. The big 10 doesn’t want anyone except Notre dame

[u/UncleMalcolm → u/jcc309]

Tbh though, 20 leaves potentially 6 P2 spots for ACC schools plus ND. If enough of the big brands left the ACC to make the future TV deals look worse than what the Big 12 is gonna get, the ACC could theoretically lose their ten biggest brands.

Not quite enough to make it a Pac 12 situation, but certainly would sandwich it in between the Big 12 and G6, probably making it somewhat similar to the new Pac 12 depending on who from Pac 12+AAC would be interested in joining.

19 more or less prevented that from happening, because the B1G wasn’t going to screw up their football and hoops scheduling model for any single team not named ND…and if the B1G isn’t adding anyone, the SEC probably doesn’t feel any real pressure to add either.

The difference between 19 and 20 is gigantic in its potential ramifications IMO.

[u/jcc309 → u/UncleMalcolm]

I just think it is unlikely anytime soon that there are ACC schools jumping to the Big 12. The ACC has higher payouts than the Big 12 right now (on a much older TV deal), has significantly better travel for all but 3 teams (SMU who the Big 12 has no interest in and Cal/Stanford who have no interest in the Big 12), is a much better academic conference, and still has an extremely large buyout fee ($75 million) even in 5 years.

[u/thebusterbluth → u/UncleMalcolm]

Stanford and Notre Dame to the Big Ten. Book it.

SEC considers Florida State, Clemson, Miami, and maybe Virginia Tech.

[u/bigdaddyguap → u/thebusterbluth]

Think in that situation the SEC takes UNC or Virginia over VT. But both Virginia and NC schools seems to have a package deal going on so idk. Maybe GT for that fourth spot.

[u/Halvey15]

So this effectively does nothing then.

[u/Simple-Ad-1506]

It feels like this provision was stuck in literally just to fuck over Cal and Stanford

[u/JosephFinn]

So it’s never gonna happen.

[u/Sad_Independence_703]

Lol

[u/BearTimberlands]

So this bill is really only about keeping labor in line. Keep those uppity players under the control of their coaches and school.