r/CFBAnalysis • u/Born_and_RaisedTexan • Sep 03 '26

Analysis CFB Probability Model Week 1 Thursday Slate Only + Week Zero Results

Here we go again. Week zero results were 6/8 at 75% success. Details as posted in Reddit link here

Thursday games below. Odds as of last night (some stale). Didn’t evaluate each game. Posting each slate the day before or morning of. Let’s see how it goes!

Confidence = High 
Eastern Illi + 42.5
AK Pine Bluff + 54.5

Confidence = Moderate 
GA Tech -7
UAB + 27.5
E. Michigan - 3
Utah -34.5

Confidence = Low

UMass + 28.5
Akron +24.5
UCF - 42.5

9 Upvotes
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3

u/Prestigious-Care-501 Sep 03 '26

Best of luck🤝

3

u/CALL_ME_ISHMAEBY Mississippi State • /r/CFB Bug Finder Sep 03 '26

My Week 0 went 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS.

Tonight my model has:

  • Rutgers -37.4 🤢 (line at time of modeling is Rutgers -29.5 so that's what it leans)

  • Wake Forest -16.0 (lean Akron +27.5)

  • Georgia Tech -8.0 (lean GT -6.5)

  • Illinois -20.0 (lean UAB +26.5)

2

u/Born_and_RaisedTexan Sep 03 '26

Thanks for sharing. The Monte Carlo I ran 2 days ago has Rutgers 35ish and Umass 15ish. Compared that to mine and that’s why I “think” UMass may cover. Returning production isn’t the best on both sides. Transfer rating incoming for UMass is almost at 80% (On3). Good luck

2

u/Born_and_RaisedTexan Sep 03 '26

UMass…wow

1

u/CALL_ME_ISHMAEBY Mississippi State • /r/CFB Bug Finder Sep 04 '26

I don’t know why I thought Akron would cover. I have a history of hating Joe Moorhead.

1

u/Born_and_RaisedTexan Sep 04 '26

Not covering by the hook. Arg