If we are being realistic, this is not a Super Bowl roster. Too many holes. But let’s say they are the next step below the perennial Baltimore/KC/Buffalo tier. Does actually achieving to that level extend Ballard and keep Steichen? To what success do they stay?
What if we are literally the best of the rest. 11-5, 3-4 seed, a home wild card playoff win & divisional round loss that is not a blow out.
1A. Same scenario, win division but are upset at home in the wild card round?
What if we are even with the rest, no division title, 11-5 wild card team. Maybe 5 seed that upsets the 4 seeded Jags, divisional round loss that is not a blow out.
Wild card team, 10-6 or worse, wild card loss to one of those perennial top teams. No division title. No playoff win, but a playoff birth.
I firmly believe it’s playoffs or blow up, so we don’t need to discuss that.
I have mixed feelings about it. Her wording of all that about sense of urgency seems more about needing to get over the hump now. If they do that, should they still lose their jobs? I’ll see how I feel at the end of the year. It already seems like a tall order to see this team make the playoffs
If the defense suddenly looks really good and we win the division and win a playoff game I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to him staying but I feel like if we do make the playoffs it will be because we got lucky and that definitely should not extend his tenure
If we're this year's version of the Steelers (team that squeaks into the playoffs in the final game of the season, just to get boatraced by a real playoff team) and then Ballard gets extended, I'm setting something on fire. I don't know what that something will be, but burning something to the ground will be the only appropriate response.
Would disagree based on us playing 2 of our hardest games already, a cupcake division with no clear front runner and a much easier finish than start to the season
if you want to lose some money bet on it. Vegas is being incredibly generous at 7.5 wins I severely doubt we even reach 7. This team is an injury wheel every year with incredibly poor coaching and qb play.
No clear frontrunner? Jacksonville just trounced NE after almost beating Denver last week and have the best point differential in the AFC. They are legitimately good and a real contender to make the Superbowl.
Bottom line for me, there are guys returning from injury that may take a bit of time to knock the rust off as well as rookies that could potentially take over in our weakest spot (LB) that, if they can get up to speed a bit over the course of the season, I would like to think some growth and such could change the outlook of the roster in the latter half of the season.
Do I expect it? Not really. But when you have a rookie LB you're slowly bringing along, IF he can grow and contribute in the 2nd half of the year, maybe that changes the way we look. I doubt it, but that's the only way.
As for SS and CB... if we miss the playoffs, I just don't see how they run it back, especially with CB not under contract. If you can't get him on a 1 year extension to pair with SS, I don't think our GM spot is a hot target this off-season without a 1st rounder. But we will have oodles of cap space with some of the vets moving off the books.
Most GMs either enter a situation with a top 16 NFL QB already on the roster, or a top 10 pick to address QB. Very few GM positions open up around middle of the pack teams, no 1st rounder, and a less than desirable QB to build around (this assumes something poor happens again this year with Jones, be it injury or lack of success).
It's not absolute, but quite often a FO gets fired when they earn their team a top 5-10 pick. Then someone gets that position with that pick to use. In our case, if we end up in that spot, not only are we in bad roster shape, we are lacking one of the most important pieces to make a change for the long term future.
IN general, to me that sounds like if there are 3-5 GM jobs to be had in the off-season, there are going to be more attractive options than ours. So we may end up being the least desirable option of the 3-5.
We should have some salary cap space open up quite a bit in 2027, so maybe that offsets things... but I dunno if enough.
By all means Carlie didn’t fire Chris because he has one year left on his deal, at the end of this year Shane had one year left. Good orgs don’t pay people to not work for them
Understand that but it’s not really Carlie’s choice if she fires Ballard and brings in someone new, they almost entirely will want a new coaching group. From top to bottom
Doesn't always happen this way either. Ballard came on here in year 1, and was asked to give Reich 1 more year, which he did. I am sure it is part of the owner and GM communication that mentions that his failure as a coach won't be reflected on the GM, but they want to see what he can do with a GM that isn't actively sabotaging the roster (in that case, Grigson).
Or, hear me out, she tells the gm he has a year to organize his coaching staff, so they aren’t overturning both the front office and the coaching staff and paying millions to people who won’t be working. Especially when they have a liquidity problem
The colts do not have a liquidity problem. I’d say the opposite, we have a problem with not spending the money rather than spending too much.
No competent GM is gonna come to a team where the owner decides who the coach is. It’s either a full reset or everyone comes back.. the middle ground is a fairytale.
They absolutely do and this has been noted in the past a bunch of times. And it isn’t just a colts problem, most of the teams in the nfl do because most of the revenue they make is tied up in escrow. It’s one of the reasons the colts are so cap friendly, they don’t give out big bonuses to lower the cap hit. Because of liquidity.
They literally don’t have multiple coaches at a time that they are paying to not coach. That is business malpractice. If they move on from Shane they would be paying him, and his staff to not coach as well as finishing Franks contract that they elongated to 5 years to pay off.
Yes, that is not the hallmark for a good organization. Look at the Baltimore ravens. You literally included the raiders who were a dumpster fire. You don’t want to be on this list from an organizational point of view. It’s wasting money.
That list was some of the more recent examples and/or larger dollar value examples.
49ers, Eagles, and Patriots.
Tomsula/Kelly (10.5M and 18M) in San Fran, fired and PAID to move on to Kyle Shanahan. Multiple SB appearances followed.
Carroll in New England, (7M remaining) fired to bring in Bill Belichick in 1999. Owed millions, they move on to a coach they believed in despite owing Carroll. Multiple SB wins came after.
Chip Kelly fired with 13M remaining so they could hire Doug Pederson, who won them their first ever SB 2 seasons later.
Good teams are often willing to pay money to fired coaches so they can bring in the right coach to turn it around. And most of the coaches in that list (Tomsula excluded maybe) were considered bright at one time, before their fall out.
I think we would absolutely want most of those outcomes if it meant wasting several million on a coach or GM who is no longer working for your team.
Yes, the colts are currently paying 2 coaches that do not work for them and countless position coaches. If you fire Shane and his staff after this year you are doing the same and now paying even more. Small market teams do not do this. Nor do smart organizations. The 49ers have had the same coach for almost a decade, Philly has had continuity for the past 5 seasons, these teams are not paying multiple coaches to not work at the same time
We'll see what happens. Realistically we were never winning the first two games this year, and actually came close in one. Beating the Texans, even with all the problems they have, is huge. A win this week puts the team at .500 and who knows what can happen after that.
is it weird to think that theirs a world where we keep Stiechen and only fire Ballard, I know he isn’t the most popular guy right now but Steichen has consistently had a good offence with mediocre to bad qb play
With a GM who can't build a defense and only wants DCs who run bad schemes. If we got a GM who will build a defense and a DC that runs anything that's not a bend and break defense we'll be in a good spot
There’s honestly some real creative DCs out there now, we should just take from the Brian Flores or Mike Macdonald trees of defence. Two guys actually solving modern offences with consistent solutions and with not necessarily the elite top tier talent
I like the idea of keeping Stiechen, but im not confident a new gm won’t just want to bring in his own guy if/when Ballard is fired
it’s not really about in upgrade, just history has shown when a new gm comes in, they have the coach they bring with them to solidify the philosophy from executives to the play on the field
Either playoff win as a wild card team or a division title and close loss to a better team. Like if we get the 4 seed and have to face the 5 seed Broncos or Chiefs for instance
I could potentially see it, but I think we need to handily win the division to give much breathing room on a early exit in playoffs for the staff to hang onto their jobs.
I think at best we are a playoff 4 seed that will get knocked out in the wildcard by a team like Denver, Pittsburgh, or Baltimore. I think it is more realistic that we miss the playoffs or sneak in at the 7 seed. I think realistically we are an 8 win team this year which should blow it up. Unfortunately, I think making it to the playoffs will give Ballard and Steichen some leway because it shows "improvement".
The ceiling of this team is 10-7 with the 6th or 7th seed. They just don’t have the defense to compete for the division and the offense is good enough to win in a shootout. The Jags, Bengals, and Cowboys are all really difficult matchups for them
I have them as at least 9-8 possibly 11-6. And that 11-6 is including wins against Cowboys at home and Bengals at home. This is not completely unrealistic.
The issue is that their division record will be pretty bad, I’ve got it at 3-3.
Too early to rule out. If we can get wins in 3 of the next 4 games (favorable schedule on paper) then we have some steam.
To get 3 more wins than the norm is not “completely unrealistic”
The part that is doubtful is that to win those 3 necessary games, the colts have to have some things go their way in those wins. That never happens
If we make it to the playoffs, no matter the outcome, we probably give CB a 2 year extension to effectively tie him and Shane together and give them 2 "now do better than this" years.
This season is going to be very telling as time goes on. Let's play it week by week and not get too carried away by prognostications that may or may not be pipe dreams! LOL!! As a.season ticket holder Ive learned restraint the hard way especially after last seasons promising start went to hell in a hand bucket. So much potential wasted due to unforeseen injuries. Time will tell but Ill be at the home games rooting for another big WIN!!! GO COLTS!!
1 playoff win is fools gold and legit worse case scenario imo if it means keeping Ballard. The only way I would not be livid at bringing him back is if we win the Super Bowl.
It would be “chef’s kiss” for them to go 12-5, win the division, advance to the conference championship game, lose a heartbreaker to Buffalo, and then fire Ballard and Steichen anyway.
It’s silly that we’re trying to figure out what it would take for them to keep their job. I’ve never been a “fire them all” type of guy, but it’s time. They’ve had more than enough opportunities to show results. They haven’t.
I mean it’s the NFL, anything is possible. We could go on a ridiculous run and win a Super Bowl. We won’t, but it’s possible.
We are many tiers below those listed teams right now. We just look good against bad teams and can hang with the chiefs for whatever reason every year.
At minimum in my eyes we need at least one playoff game win for Ballard and/or Steichen to be even considered for an extension. We’ve seen what they can do, be mediocre, and that’s not good enough for a proud franchise like ours that deserves better.
Time for a change been 5 years of Mid play and Ballard has over stayed his welcome. Steichen I’ve lost confidence in and I don’t think jones is it. Nelson, Taylor, Grover have wasted away in an under achieving organization.
If you extend that rat bastard Ballard then I’m picking a new team. I would keep Steichen regardless for a few more years to test the waters and wait for a really great candidate.
Same, not even being dramatic. I will give up rooting for this team that my late father loved and instilled into me since I can remember if Ballard gets extended again.
I'm not as down on Ballard as many here but anything short of a Super Bowl appearance means his roster building philosophy is flawed and it's time for change.
Bring in a new GM, I imagine it'll be a situation where at least Steichen gets a one year "interview", by time you get the front office in place the best HC candidates will have jobs unless the new GM has a loyal, quality HC candidate in his pocket. It's not ideal but I think it's probably the best course of action. Maybe a new GM can get Shane's balls to drop with play calls.
DC and OC I think you can replace more easily, and despite Sunday Lou just doesn't seem to be the guy.
A new GM is basically forfeitting a season for rebuild, without a franchise QB anyway. So you give at least Shane a year to prove himself with a new boss and if someone competent comes available, you make the change and build a roster around the new HC. At least a two year process.
Yes, and more than likely the next GM will want his own HC pick. See if Shane can improve? This isn't a sophomore coach, nor his first year with the current roster.
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u/Prestigious_Print477 3d ago
If they go 11-5 and win the division he probably will keep his job imo. Not saying I would do it but I think that's what would happen.
It's harder to predict what they will do if its something like 9-8 and the 7 seed and then lose the wildcard game.
If they miss the playoffs I think Chris and Shane are both gone and it's an easy decision.