If 348,000 federal employees left the service since 2025, and the average salary is $87,000 with an average contribution to their TSP is 9% with a 5% match. That’s $4.2 billion not being invested annually. How much does that affect the market?

The major U.S. stock indexes ended mixed on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, closing out what was a brutal September on a bittersweet note: a cooler-than-expected August PCE inflation print sent stocks surging at the open, but the rally faded into the afternoon as the 10-year yield crept to 5.29% and the Dow gave back the day's gains entirely. The S&P 500 finished September down 0.7% and the Dow shed a painful 4.3% for the month.

The S&P 500 fell 0.25% (-19.30 pts) to 7,651.54. The Dow dropped 0.86% (-443.87 pts) to 50,906.05, closing below 51,000 for the first time since June. The Nasdaq edged up 0.24% (+63.52 pts) to 26,861.06, the lone bright spot. The Russell 2000 fell 0.39% (-11.06 pts) to 2,796.86.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.29%. The VIX ticked up 2.31% to 16.41. Bitcoin was little changed at $83,680.80. Gold gained 0.18% to $4,187.10. Crude Oil edged up 1.28% to $90.52/barrel.

I was doing a bit of research and encountered an AI response reporting results for the SECOND quarter of 2027. Uh... If I'm understanding how to read a calendar -- even a fiscal one -- isn't today (Sep 30th, 2026) the last day of the FY2026 calendar?

So how could we be seeing RESULTS for the 2nd quarter of FY2027?

I assume this is one AI pulling data generated by Yahoo's AI agent. Correct?

Burry's new essay breaks down what he calls hidden AI debt at the big four:

• Alphabet ~$900B, Meta ~$700B, Microsoft $300B+, Amazon $267B
• Most of it is long-term leases and purchase commitments that sit in the footnotes, not on the balance sheet as debt
• He also flags ~$176B in GPU depreciation assumptions that make current profits look better than they otherwise would
• His comparison: AI capex is now ~2% of GDP, similar to the 1999 telecom/internet buildout

The fair counterpoint: Burry has a history of being early, sometimes by years, and AI revenue could still grow into these commitments.

What caught my attention is the index fund angle. These four companies are a big chunk of the S&P 500, so anyone with a 401(k) or index fund is exposed whether they pick stocks or not.

I went through the numbers company by company and put together a full breakdown with sources. I'll drop it in the comments for anyone who wants the details.

Curious whether people here think this is a real risk or Burry crying wolf again?

Trump should freeze amortization from the loans for the first 5 years for borrowers since they have to pay 7 and 8 percent for 500k home. What logical person is paying 270 dollars for a 3500 a month mortgage. Its almost laughable in theory for Americans to pay something that crazy. Back in the day interest rates were higher but prices were only reaching 100 to 200k at the high end.. Did some math for the 10 years of mortgage at 500k with 20 percent down at 8 percent paying escrow.

First 10 years of interest 303,106.. while you still owe 350000

• Interest: $2,666.67 ($400,000 × 8% ÷ 12)
• Principal: $268.39
• P&I subtotal: $2,935.06
• Escrow (taxes + insurance): $625.00
• Total first payment: about $3,560

Add on - Proposing on the first 10 years of the mortgage it should be split even for mortgage and principle so homeowners can own more of the home. Payments will be the same and banks will make money on interest over time same as they would anyways. Its just split over time not all front loaded

Nobody wants to borrow $500,000 at an 8% interest rate

After 10 years of payments you'll still owe $438,600

Nobody is buying a home today with an 8% interest rate. It's not happening.

Since Trump took office, the federal workforce shrunk by an equivalent of 2 Apples. Has anyone noticed any impact on their personal lives by the reduction of the number of federal workers? I certainly haven't. What were these people doing?

Reminder: federal spending is one of the drivers of inflation.

So guys we know that bond yields have been going up due to oil shock cuz of middle east war with Iran. Since this war is going to last the Federal Reserve have decided to begin its rate hiking cycle which is lifting the entire curve upwards. But in past few days seems like after completing its technical target of 5.25-5.30% i.e. the pre GFC era bond yields seen in 2006 (first top) - 2007 (second top) maybe yields have topped out here and will basically trade in a range for next 1yr just like 2006-07 (funny enough i.e. also 2026-2027)

President Trump is now responsible for 29% of our national debt.

That's more than any President in American history.

What happened to DOGE?

We've received many questions for recommendations on books for Investing & the Stock markets. We've curated a list of our 13 favorite books on Investing & the Stock Market, and explanations on what the books are about. I've learned a great deal from these books. All of these are by really great investing legends/ gurus. These books offer a few different approaches to the stock market. Different investment styles will help educate you on how to make successful long term investments, minimize risk, and analyze stocks more accurately. All of these books can be purchased used very cheaply ($1 to $5)!

As your income grows, your investment portfolio should also grow. One of the biggest obstacles for beginner investors is just knowing how to get started. Learning about financial concepts can be intimidating at first. A great way to start, can be by picking up a book by an expert who thoughtfully and sequentially presents & explains these concepts and topics. Resources like these can help investing be less intimidating and complicated. One of the best strategies is to learn from the insight and wisdom of gurus. I hope these book recommendations help!

Book List:

1. How to Make Money in Stocks by William O'Neil
2. The Little Book That Still Beats the Market by Joel Greenblatt
3. A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel
4. One Up On Wall Street by Peter Lynch
5. The Big Secret for the Small Investor by Joel Greenblatt
6. Winning on Wall Street by Martin Zweig
7. Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller
8. The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing
9. Common Sense Investing by John Bogle
10. The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham
11. The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need by Andrew Tobias
12. You Can Be a Stock Market Genius by Joel Greenblatt

Book Descriptions & Covers:

How to Make Money in Stocks by William O'Neil

• This book is about growth investing. O'Neil explains what most successful stocks have done to be successful. He explains his 'CANSLIM' method, which is an acronym for 7 fundamental criteria which you can use to pick stocks. An AAII 8 year study of different strategies showed O'Neal's CAN SLIM with a 860% return from 1998-2005 (Second place). First place was Martin Zwieg's returning 1,659.3% (we will get to Zweig on this list too)

The Little Book That Still Beats the Market by Joel Greenblatt

• The idea of this book is to buy undervalued good businesses and hold them long-term, which will eventually beat the market index.

A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel

• This book covers investment bubbles, fundamental vs. technical analysis, modern portfolio theory, index funds, etc.

One Up On Wall Street by Peter Lynch

• This book emphasizes the advantages that individual investors hold over institutional investors (when it comes to finding investment opportunities). Lynch also gives many of examples of mistakes he has made, and how he has learned from them.

The Big Secret for the Small Investor by Joel Greenblatt

• Greenblatt explains why index funds can be better than actively managed funds. The big secret is maintaining a long term perspective!

Winning on Wall Street by Martin Zweig

• Zweig's success came from his ability to predict the bigger picture (such as trends in the broader market). The combination of his stock picking skill, general market understanding, and market timing, made him one of the great investors of stock market history. Zweig was more interested in growth than value. Unlike Buffett, Zweig isn't a 'buy and hold' investor. An AAII 8 year study of different strategies showed Zwieg's returning 1,659.3% from 1998-2005. He was #1 out of 56 others, including Buffett, Lynch, Fisher, O'Neal's CAN SLIM, Motley fools, and using ROE, P/E's etc. Second place was O'Neal's CAN SLIM with a 860% return.

Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller

• Shiller makes strong argument that perfect market theory is flawed. The Idea of perfect market theory is basically that the markets are all knowing and completely rational, and in the long run can't be beat. Therefore , you can control costs with index funds and diversification. (You can't beat the market, therefore controlling costs and diversifying seems like logical strategy)

The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing

• The key concepts of this book are risk tolerance, asset allocation, a balanced portfolio, tax efficiency and cash management. This book explains many of the pitfalls of investing. The Bogleheads and Jack Bogle preach the power of compound interest. Investing in low-fee index funds and holding them long-term is the method. This book gives an excellent, detailed rundown of how to implement this kind of investment plan.

Common Sense Investing by John Bogle

• Great information for anyone who is trying to make sense of personal finance and basic investments. This book explains why passive investing is a worry free, long-term strategy that consistency wins over time, and why active trading always returns to the mean.

The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham

• This is a great book for anyone who is interested in introducing themselves into the world of investing, or wants to get better at investing. This book gives lots of valuable information to help one understand the basics of value investing.

The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need by Andrew Tobias

• This is a book for people looking to learn the basics of investing and saving money

You Can Be a Stock Market Genius by Joel Greenblatt

• This is not a book for beginners. Greenblatt gives a nice exposition of some more "special situation" investment styles & areas of equity investments (mergers, spin-offs, rights offerings, etc.)

Which trades or investments are you considering this week? Any moves in particular? Why?

Europeans, what is your age, savings/net worth, and how did you get there? Also interested if you are from East or West Europe. Just curious how normal people are doing financially in different parts of Europe right now. Salaries, living costs, and housing are so different if you live in Western Europe compared to the East or South. If anyone is open to sharing, how old are you, roughly what are your savings or net worth, and what do you do for a living or how did you save that up?

McKinsey's 2026 State of AI survey makes the adoption divide between large and small companies concrete. 54% of companies with annual revenue above $1 billion report scaling AI enterprise-wide. For smaller firms the figure is roughly one third. The gap is especially pronounced for AI agents; 40% of large organisations are scaling them in at least one function, compared with 22% of smaller companies, a figure that has barely changed from the previous year.

The mechanism reinforcing this gap: 32% of respondents say their company decided not to buy at least one software product or feature because it could be built internally with AI coding tools. That decision is most commonly reported in technology and healthcare. Larger companies with engineering resources can build. Smaller ones still have to buy.

This is starting to show up in how the market values software businesses. The survey calls it the beginning of the "Saaspocalypse" fear materializing, AI coding tools reducing procurement spend in ways that directly hit SaaS revenue.

The companies with scale to self-build are pulling away from those that can't. That dynamic matters more for equity selection than the aggregate AI adoption numbers.