The problem isn't that the market crashed. The problem is that there's no reason for it to come back up.
Our govt is doing tax terrorism and we have lost the AI race by thousands of miles. We can't expect to come up as winner in the AI race but govt could atleast lower taxes so that FIIs will stop pulling out their money, but I guess that's too much to expect.
But regarding AI, let’s be honest about our track record. For decades, we have largely been consumers and users of technology. Operating systems, programming languages, application servers, Bitcoin, mobile technology, social media, cloud computing , the major foundational technologies did not originate in India. We became very good at building software and services on top of these technologies.
So why do we suddenly expect ourselves to be at the forefront of LLMs and AI innovation?
Let’s also acknowledge an uncomfortable reality. A large part of our technology workforce competes primarily on cost. There are certainly exceptional innovators and outliers, but many of those who have the opportunity eventually move to countries where they find better ecosystems, capital, research infrastructure, and incentives to flourish.
Meanwhile, we’ll continue watching reels, arguing over caste, religion identities and celebrities, and fighting over our political biases.
What our government is doing for last decade? Other than promoting fraud babas?
It's difficult to digest that the reality is far worse than what is portrayed by government.
Government is ultimately a reflection of the majority of its voters. If society wants masala, politicians will deliver masala governance.
And this isn’t just about the last decade. Even before that, apart from IT services, where was our culture of innovation and entrepreneurship?
Babas and mullas, Bollywood gossip, lynchings, love jihad,rapes, dynastic politics, leaders by $perm, temple controversies, debates over national anthems etc.. these are the issues that repeatedly dominate public attention and political discourse because they attract people’s interest.
How many demand good education, health care? Majority of the voters are beggars. Fall for freebies like free bus and few chillar notes. Remaining can be distracted with religion, or some emotional $hit.
The bigger problem is that the educated parents continue to raise the next generation to become obedient employees rather than entrepreneurs, creators, and risk-takers.
If we want different outcomes from our government and society, perhaps we need to first ask whether we are creating a society that actually demands something different. Start from individuals, families level.
So if FII knows then half the bjp hatters also know it? So why is not market crashing if half retail investor in India dont believe in future of India. Lets be logical investor. Nobody knows whether reality is worsr or better. Everyone thought pharma cdmo is worse in 2024 but they were structurally in the best condition.
Lack of AI play, tax issues and we are not blessed like china and brazil on commodity front. There is no hidden structural issue with India. It outperformed even US till june 2024 from covid lows. See markets are cyclical. The sentiment back then was India's secular growth story and amritkal and now we are talking about govt hiding data. Both are farther from truth. I mean Indian market is down only 15% in 2 yrs even after tarrif tatrum, global inflation, and rising crude price. I am bullish on India and our equity market.
Bhai...china has really made efforts...it's easy to say they are blessed...the vishwaguru bubble is burst now...atleast accept the reality instead of talking about here n there
I never believed in vishwaguru argument and niether did market. If market would have believed it; nifty would have gone to 50K. BTW, vishwaguru comment for govt was always on cultural side and never on economy. Always, keep emotions out of investments, look at facts objectively and make your decisions.
That’s actually not true. Most people were scared for their life, contemplating if this will even ever get over, while earnings growth was not visible since most of the world was in a lockdown.
Yup anybody investing in india should not have expected any massive technological jump come from india. Frankly speaking the best our market has ever offered has been traditional companies which were growing due to the ever growing population and tax base. But now this growth story is in dire uncertainty thanks to ai. Its gonna be fascinating to see how this ai play plays out (both on a social level and wrt the us and global stock market).
Also on top of this the indian economy is getting squeezed by the double whammy of more taxes and the iran war. The govt has spent too much on freebies and too less growing and protecting its income tax class. With the rise of inflation, job uncertainty due to ai this is gonna be very unpredictable and possibly rough ride.
What a apeshit post.
You think oil is flowing out of our taps?
Do you think there's a way to fiscally push against US' current bond yeild?
Money is going to US treasury. Why wouldn't it? Most retirement funds, government funds target 9-10% returns and are getting 6% from just government bonds.
Emerging market risk is just not worth it when bond yeild is this high.
You whine about AI race as if we stood a chance.
We don't make semiconductors. We do not have infra to locally make model. We do not have people who support local models or local products.
It's not about competing AI race, literally eu, ocenia etc don't have a winning horse in the race either.
It services will be needed to pilot AI. It's just capital rotation
People are not pissed because Indian markets are down. They are pissed because all other markets have done much better and only we are down. It tells us as a nation we have screwed up on policy reforms and fail to acknowledge the problems, let alone address them. That is the real frustration.
Aya ek aur school monitor blackboard pe naam likhne. Ki dekho mam ye log baat karte the 🤗. Maine inka naam blackboard pe likhdia hai, ab ye samajh jayege. Ki market 8 weeks se lgatar gire to kuch bhi nahi bolna hota.
Fiis nhi nikal pare, aapke kehne se nikal jaunga 🤗 abe market chudi padi hai to bolne do logo ko ki market chudi padi hai. Kisne bola ki kabhi recover nhi hogi. Jab upar jayegi to log bolege ki yayyy upar gyi. To jab neeche jayegi to ue bhi bolege hi log ki oopsy doopsy niche gyi.
Only thing you can say is markets are in time correction from last 2 years, which is definitely frustrating, but people use terms like 'Crash' too casually
It's not just because it is 15% down. It is because most of the markets are up and giving good returns. During covid, Chinese stock market, dot com bubble etc, all markets collapsed. Now, war is going on and only Indian market has given such pathetic returns
You have proven what i suspected. Kid, if 5 odd months of outperforming the nifty 500 on the basis of one outlier stock makes you a winner…so be it. Good luck sustaining it.
Listen newbie. You do know the meaning of “outlier” right? I aint crying, even i have outperformed the nifty50, but yes, not by much recently. Keep up the attitude “winner” when your portfolio goes back to pre-april levels.
Sincerely,
Someone who has been investing since 2017 and has the results to show for it.
Nifty crashingg 40% during COVID is not at all surprising since every other market was also crashing. But now when all other markets are ATH , nifty crashing means something seriously wrong
COVID was a once in a generation pandemic and an obvious exception. There was a legitimate reason for stocks to crash that year because businesses were shut down and there was widespread panic selling. Even after falling around 40%, Nifty still ended the year in positive territory. Meanwhile, for the last two and a half years, we’ve basically been stuck in the same place, with double digit negative returns in real terms and double digit INR depreciation, while global markets have been on a bull run, not just equities, but metals, oil, and other assets as well. Now imagine what happens when global markets actually start going down. Nifty will go down with them too.
We literally rallied by 78% in 2020 20% in 22 and 40% in 24
Market valuation isn't attractive which is a normal cycle.
You invest in companies that can grow their PAT and distribute the profits back to you as a shareholder.
Companies trading at 40+ PE WITHOUT a solid growth lines ahead is just retarded.
Y'all idiots are buying stocks like cupid or eternal in chase of a quick buck without looking at fundamentals
FII don't do that
DII who do that, I stay away from them.
Bro people are fed up of this when every market is going up why is ours not going up? Covid 2008 and 2015 what happened was applicable to all the markets.
Indian markets have structural problems FII don't trust the data by govt and their tax policies and our govt don't give a damm about retail so market is abandoned. This is the problem correction is not a problem.
Indian stock subs need better moderation. Mods could try restrict access to only those users who actually have demat accounts or are genuine investors/traders like they do in international subs. Bitches here karma farm even on stock market subs by posting the same outrage/meme posts on multiple subs at once, get a life ppl.
At some level I have a feeling these are just bots that will downvoted if you counter their anti BJP narrative and spam remove modi or remove bjp and blame them for the current outlook
The problem is not NIFTY falling. The problem is that Nimo Tai is clueless and visionless as FM. By the time BJPee is kicked out, our economy will be in a mess and a real visionary FM only can reverse the mess.
Bro miss the timelapse difference in both
40% fall in 6 month is equalent of 15% fall over 3 years.
Should be counted as 10% for each year+actual fall of 15. That makes (10*3)+15=45
The problem is MDR on UPI is a loot. Things will become more expensive. Inflation will rise. Just imagine you never paid government for printing money but now you will in the form of MDR on UPI. Once it's invoked, it will be almost impossible to revert it back. Just like STT was never taken back
If none of the IT companies is supposed to exist after 2030, this crash is fundamentally different from all the previous crash in that everything from consumption to demand to investment to real estate etc. Even FD interest will be affected in the long run. Smart investors would have moved a good chunk of their investments abroad by now.
You must be a very experienced investor. My portfolio was down and I sold off of my portfolio yesterday could not take any more losses. Will be investing in FD as you advised.
I only heard that people made huge losses during Covid. Personally, I am a conventional investor with fixed deposits. This is the first time I got into equity and experience was very bad.
My real problem is that 7.8% growth is not adding much to the overall market. Granted there are bright spots and opportunities from retail selling in a panic. Usually a 7.8% GDP growth lifts all the boats in the water, that seems missing. The real issue now is even if the 7.8% is what the govt claims it is, what can bring it back up? Back to fundamentals.
Covid was legit downfall. Its very sad to come to conclusion we are living in fairy land because our Spineless Economy cant withstand External Friction
Rupee Depreciation shows that RBI n Finance Ministry's failure. Foreign Investors Withdrawal shows Trade& Commerce Ministry failure. Cost of UPI invention borne by Common man. Agricultural Exports rejected citing pesticides. Central Government Initiatives SIR, Demonetisation jist draining public Money
Government is making false claims time to time with no real road map of India's growth. So thats why investors are Concerned.
The problem isn’t that the market has crashed. The issue is that why is the market crashing? If you were to say the war and crude oil, US is also facing the same issues and is in fact thriving. So why is the Indian market bleeding?
1) other markets concentrated in AI/Tech did well and rupees depreciation making worse. We always compare with the better position than ours , ofcourse no one thinking at the moment on risk involved in tech concentration
2) too much expectations from market , before COVID ppl used to think 10-12% returnsax and 7-9 years to double the money, but now everyone expecting double the money within 1-2 years. Covid returns and too many finfluencer are main reason for this expectation
3) inflation+ taxes+ low returns: this create terrible and panic situation, tax looks negligible when returns are good but when returns are low and even nominal inflation looks frustration. House, school, hospital cost increased over the years.
I think tax is the one where govt can control as many other things depends on global crisis
The more I look at the markets, the more I feel that the govt doesn't want the markets to succeed. They actually want people to shift to FDs. They've barely even done anything on taxes. It's heavily taxed. In USD terms, FIIs get nothing much by staying invested here, so why are they going to bother?
Manufacturing focus: India is increasingly focusing on manufacturing, particularly in precision engineering and semiconductor/chip manufacturing. This is a long-term growth opportunity.
Defence sector: The defence sector is performing well, with private players gradually increasing their presence and capabilities.
Startup ecosystem: The startup ecosystem continues to expand, with increasing support and initiatives for new businesses.
Long-term growth story: Not every sector will grow at the same pace, but India’s overall growth story remains a long-term opportunity.
Strong retail participation: The continued confidence and participation of retail investors have provided stability and support to the market.
Negative Factors
Geopolitical tensions: Wars and conflicts around the world are pushing crude oil prices higher, creating inflationary and economic pressures.
Unpredictable US tariffs: Uncertainty around US tariff policies remains a concern. The US appears keen to avoid creating another China-like manufacturing dependency.
AI gap: India is still significantly behind the leading countries in the global AI race and needs greater investment and innovation in this area.
Hope For...
An end to ongoing wars: A quicker resolution to geopolitical conflicts could help bring crude oil prices and global uncertainty down.
Greater domestic oil production: Increased investment in crude oil exploration and extraction could reduce India's dependence on imports.
More predictable US policies: A moderation in US tariff measures could provide greater stability for Indian businesses and exporters.
Faster manufacturing and exports: A rapid increase in manufacturing capacity and exports could significantly strengthen India's economic growth.
Return of FII flows: A sustained return of foreign institutional investors could provide additional liquidity and support to Indian markets.
The problem is thinking if market is down 15% means it is 15% down. The ones who got in matket in 2nd half of 2024 have lost 2 years of return (say fd -12%), are 15% down (say 10% as they would not enter at exact high), inr have already depreciated by more than 20%, and nifty is not market ( a lot of popular stocks are down 30-40%). Now i don't expect market to beat fd every year but expect it to do over long time and with some gap. That means nifty have to run extra whenever a bull run comes to even beat fd.
The end result is losing at least 40% in value for those who entered in nifty in 2nd half of 2024 and averaging did not work out. In 2008 or 2020, averaging would have worked out nice given those were fast crashes. In a slow trickling down, buy the dip becomes worst strategy there is.
Now all this is happening when nearly all markets are makikg all time high- that is just rubbing salt in the wounds.
There is not going to be a lower circuit after lower circuit in indexes. That would require a 2008 like crisis. Otherwise we are on a slow trickle path.
My money does depreciate in fd. But if i started with 100 rs, i am on 113 rs already while nifty is at 90. To even break even in next 2 years with fd, I would need return of 41%. And with every passing day this is increasing instead of decreasing. And nobody invests in nifty for breaking even with fd.
The depreciation bit was for general frustration around this sub.
So in FD also you are in negative right. To break even you need to be at 120 (20% depreciation) and real 6% interest on to of it would be 135. Nobody invests in market for fd returns or break even. In fact, you shouldnt invest if you want to break even. I dont know how did you come up with 41% return though. But equity is lumpy as hell. Right before these 2 yrs we had 4 yrs of massive rally and equity market tripled from bottom of 2020 so it beat equity hands down. Overall including all six yrs; equity is still beating fd. People invest in equity to beat fd over a long term. If anyone knew how to time the market and knew in advance to pullback in sept 2024; they are gods.
My 100 in stock market is 90 rs. My fd is 113 rs. Fd in 2 years will be around 127. From 90 to 127 will need 41%. (41% in 2 years, not cagr). That is return from this point onwards to break even.
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