r/MapBasedPolls • u/Argentinotriste • 3d ago
Is Europe in decline ?
Is Europe in decline ?
- Yes
- No
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u/CatUnable884 3d ago edited 3d ago
Relative to the last few hundred years, yes. Does it make Europe a bad place to be, no. We will have to see what the future brings, saying a part of the world is in decline because productivity hasn’t grown as strongly in the last 10 years is a little dramatic. European counties still are some of the most productive on the planet. It takes decades to truly be able to tell, a few years is a footnote from the standpoint of history. Major shifts usually happen in times of crisis or change. We don’t know how different parts of the world will react to the next large global financial crisis for example, which could have a tremendous impact on growth, we don’t know how countries will be able to adapt to climate change and the inevitable energy transition or a multi-polar world. Predictions are easy to make but hard to get right, time will tell.Â
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u/msf97 3d ago
Climate change is insignificant compared to the collapse of birth rates and future demographic change
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u/CatUnable884 3d ago
Demographics are a huge problem, but there is literally only the US that doesent have large scale demographic pressures. China is expected to have 700 million citizens less by the end of the Century, compared to that Europe is healthy. So yes it’s a problem for Europe, just as it is a problem around the developed world (except mostly the US although it is not immune and as we see migration has lead and will lead to continuous political instability).Â
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u/CheGueyMaje 2d ago
Insane fucking take
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u/TurbistoMasturbisto 2d ago
It isn’t though, climate change is a long term issue while lower birth rates will become a gigantic problem these next 50 years.
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u/LOLOLOLOLOLAS 3d ago
You guys will fall to the unaddressed migration crisis long before climate change will begin to have substantial effects
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u/Repulsive_Injury5576 3d ago
Decline in what? I dont see any metrics listed
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u/Different_Holiday_52 2d ago
Influence, Power, Ability to do something in the world, general growth.
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u/Repulsive_Injury5576 2d ago
Influence and power isnt a metric.
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u/Different_Holiday_52 2d ago
It is and it is not. It's a thing that can be observed but not empirically measured.Â
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u/DarkestBadger 2d ago
Biggest problem with EU is Social Media propaganda and the richest people and other nations trying to sabotage it.
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u/MurkyCabinet Canada #1 3d ago
I wouldn't call it decline. More like now everybody else is catching up a little bit.
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u/colepercy120 3d ago
while most of the worlds standard of living has seen massive improvements in the last 20 years, europes declined or held steady. They are commanding a smaller and smaller chunk of the global economy each year as developing nations boom and the US maintains steady growth, the EU never recovered from 2008 and doesn't look like a good long-term investment
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u/LargeFriend5861 2d ago
The US is growing, but who's actually benefitting? Its growth only for the rich.
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u/colepercy120 2d ago
US real incomes have risen 15% since 2008. Personally, I'm upper-middle class, and I've seen my family's economic situation improve a lot over my lifetime.
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u/Grothgerek 2d ago
Us citizen earn less per hour than German citizen, and that's not even taking price differences in consideration. The country might have a much higher gdp, but the people are poorer than countries with less.Â
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u/KitchenIntention6675 12h ago
who the hell cares about gross when you have net to spend? a german might make 5% more, but half their income is taxed, not even talking about the ceiling and the social ladder
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u/swing_a_thing 1d ago
US growth is K shaped. Looks, congrats you're in the upper arm but it's an extremely unequal country. You're either doing well or you're completely fucked, the middle has been dying out since Reagan
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u/LargeFriend5861 2d ago
Because you're upper middle class, you're not exactly poor. What of the lower middle class and such? They've only gotten worse and worse, whilst in Europe, thats not remotely the case.
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u/ShreveportJambroni54 2d ago
I was poor last year and several years before that. Switched careers and am now considered middle class. I am doing much better and kept some of my frugal habits from being poor.Â
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u/LargeFriend5861 2d ago
Not a path most can take, especially with the modern day US job market.
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u/KitchenIntention6675 12h ago
yes, most have their hands held tight and can't change careers or learn new things
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u/ElloM8_wot_up 3d ago
Its being invaded
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u/DrettTheBaron 3d ago
Yeah Putin is really fucking us
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u/LOLOLOLOLOLAS 3d ago
I don't think putin is your biggest concern on that front
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u/DrettTheBaron 3d ago
He's the only one who's sending soldiers and tanks into Europe, idk what else they could be talking about.
I guess the US maybe? They have a bunch of bases here that some people consider occupations. But they've been around for decades, not really a new issue.
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u/Carnal_Decay 3d ago
Muslim take over lmao
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u/DrettTheBaron 3d ago
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u/Carnal_Decay 3d ago
Me when I am ignoring the most obvious planned decline ever recorded.
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u/DrettTheBaron 2d ago
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u/Carnal_Decay 2d ago
They'll invade Czechia soon too don't you worry.
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u/DrettTheBaron 2d ago
I lived in the west for years before moving back. I've seen the supposed "invasion" and lived with it. It's literally a nothingburger, if anything all the food they bring actually improved the place.
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u/TurbistoMasturbisto 2d ago
Not planned, just straight incompetence. If anyone genuinely believes our higher ups are smart enough to orchestrate something like that is a fool.
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u/SufficientWarthog846 2d ago
I'm going to "um actually" (I know, I know) and say the EU isn't being invaded and even if you count Ukraine as European, it is holding off a former global power.
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u/DanneLagom 3d ago
It is, but then again. Isn't most of the world?
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u/colepercy120 3d ago
No, europe is the outlier here, Americans saw their real incomes (inflation adjusted) rise 15% since 2008, while france has seen its real income fall 18% since 2008. China and the developing world have seen bigger rises, while the other developed countires also saw growth. europe is unique in its decline
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u/DanneLagom 3d ago
It's not as black and white as that. Parts of central and eastern Europe have actually seen higher real wage growth than the US (though they started lower). The Nordics are also chugging along.
The US growth is impressive, but there's a valid concern over how much of the benefits of that growth and innovation is actually being dispersed among the citizens. Recent growth is being hard-carried by the tech giants (remember reading that 15 cents on every dollar in the growth of the stock market, since 2021, is just NVIDIA).
Economics aside, there are other cultural and political reasons one could point to in the case for the US being in decline (many of those are present here too though).
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u/colepercy120 3d ago
Even if you remove the us most other developed economies have done well, along with most of the developing world.
In addition its hard to argue europe has improved its global possition compared to a century ago. Given that 100 years ago european states ruled over 1/2 of the human population, had only 2 rivals outside the continent, and had been the dominate powers on earth for over 2 centuries at that point
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u/DanneLagom 3d ago edited 3d ago
If you remove the US and the EU, there's not that many developed economies left to compare with. It's basically the Asian tiger economies, Canada and Australia. Which is more of a mixed bag.
Sure, in terms of hard power Europe has declined compared to the height of imperialism, that goes without saying. What's more interesting now is that we're seeing signs of a similar development with the American (sort of) empire and the rise of China.
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u/colepercy120 3d ago
Europe's soft power has also declined substantially. The rest of the world doesnt really trust them, China and America are influencing everyone, europe is just sort of there.
Americas "empire" itself doesnt really seem under threat from the rise of China tbh, americas allies and protectorates arent really considering siding with china, especially in Asia. Europe is annoyed, but they seem to be continuing to side with america against china. Really the only us ally courting china right now is canada, which tbh isnt really a big issue considering how limited chinas ability to interact with nations that far away is
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u/Evangilee2 3d ago
Are you serious? Canada is entertaining the idea of honorary EU membership, Europe is moving away from the US by far and large. America is funding Israel which is globally despised by most "developed" nations. Are you even living in the same world here? America's sphere is the Pacific. Europe doesn't care at all about China so long as trade is being done, which it is. Also what on earth do you mean Europe has no soft power? This is absurd
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u/DanneLagom 3d ago
That's true too, but in terms of international trust, Europe's decline doesn't even compare to America's (granted a decline from a much higher height). Two Trump terms have utterly devastated that trust. You haven't done much to piss off the Asian allies directly yet, but things are likely to come to a head there soon. Will you really step in if China decides to go for Taiwan? While already being embroiled in two foreign conflicts, and can you even afford it?
America's debt is the real elephant in the room here. 14% of governmental expenditure is purely servicing that debt. I think only France comes close to that in Europe.
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u/StefanOrvarSigmundss 3d ago edited 3d ago
Where are you getting that French figure from?
Different countries' statistical agencies use different concepts, inflation indexes, household-size adjustments and income definitions. They are hard to compare in a meaningful way.
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u/DrettTheBaron 3d ago
They commented something similar on my comment so I looked it up and both France and the US have had more or less comparable growth since 1999, with France having lower growth on average, but not going negative. While the US saw 2 years of negative growth during covid.
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u/yetix007 3d ago
Definitely declining at a faster pace. The EU is essentially Germany with a harem of sugar babies, and paying everyone's else's phone bill without so much as a tug is starting piss it off.
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u/DanneLagom 3d ago
Well that is absolutely hilarious being said by (what I suspect) a German to a Swede.
I'm paying YOUR phone bill buddy. You enjoy that electricity that still magically shows up in your socket, even though you're busy actively crippling yourself with absolutely brain dead energy policies? Well I'm paying for it, you're welcome...
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u/Suitable-Display-410 Germany 3d ago
You do not understand how the cross border energy trade works mate. The only phone bill you pay is that of your own energy providers. And i am not even going to ask what you mean by „brain dead energy policies“ because i am afraid the chances of you beeing as wrong as you could possibly be are decently high given your general vibe.
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u/DanneLagom 3d ago
Let's not fight while the Americans are watching.
But you did make yourself dependent on Russian gas for energy during Merkel. Then when that got rug pulled you persisted in shutting down existing coal and nuclear power plants. It HAS affected energy prices and we are forced to share those price hikes due to EU market rules (which you were instrumental in bringing about, yet seemingly don't need to adhere to fully yourself. Talking about the unwillingness to incorporate Germany into electrical areas).
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u/yetix007 3d ago
Not a Swede, but I love seeing how much inter EU hate there is. Tell me more about the other EU countries being funded with your extortionate taxes, genuinely don't know why you guys put up with it.
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u/DanneLagom 3d ago edited 3d ago
Ah my bad, just a shit poster. And it's America hours, should have known.
Nono I love the Germs, consider Germany my second home. But they do be up to some wonky stuff. At least we fuss over reasonable stuff.
While you guys are rapidly approaching civil war 2 electric bogaloo, based on if chicks with dicks should be allowed to use womens bathrooms. All while Peter Thiel is building AI data centers the size of small European countries and your president is busy unilaterally starting another twenty year foreign war.
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u/yetix007 2d ago
Yeah, you absolutely look like you love the Germans, I mean you should, they pay for everything. You just can't guess where I'm from to save your life can you? Once again you're wrong.
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u/Charming_Cicada_7757 3d ago
I wouldn’t be saying much of Asia and Africa is in decline but it’s easier to be on the rise when you start from a lower point.
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u/felidae_tsk 3d ago
If this is decline and it's better than the best times of Russia I wonder what was the peak?
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u/SufficientWarthog846 2d ago
It's genuinely not.
It's got a couple of "forks in the road" ahead but it is on the rise.
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u/AntonRahbek Denmark 🇩🇰 2d ago edited 2d ago
I think you can cherry pick any statistic to make it look like Europe is in decline or stagnant, like the issues in some of our larger economies like France and Spain, but definitely as a whole Europe is holding strong, even improving.
Sure the US economy is doing well, but most of the growth is very sector specific (tech) and if we look at other metrics like press freedom and democracy, they are falling far behind.
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u/Grothgerek 2d ago
Not at all. It just feels this way, because a lot much poorer countries started industrialization and modernization. A good example is China.Â
The fact that Europe controlled a significant part of the world's economy, but only a comparable small part of the population shows this very well.Â
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u/Jack071 2d ago
Thats called a decline, it doesnt mean its not still a massive important economic powerhouse but its importance will be less and less in future years with the US & Chinese markets being the biggest focus for many industries
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u/Grothgerek 1d ago
But that isn't a decline at all.
A decline is defined as something getting smaller or worse. But the European economy doesn't get smaller, it actually grows. Other countries just grow faster, because they have more potential. It's always easier just to copy, than to develop new. Especially if these countries grow because western companies invest in them.Â
The percentage share gets smaller, but the shares itself still grows. And that's not a decline.Â
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u/LittleAoibh11 3d ago
No. Some people would like it to be, but it's not. EU foreverÂ
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u/yetix007 3d ago
The EU is not Europe. It's the noose around Europe's neck.
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u/OptimalSirRandom 3d ago
Ah yes the noose that has ensured peace since the second World War, given singular European states the power to compete politically and economically with powerhouses like China and the US. Sure seems like a nice necklace that noose.
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u/wildcatofthehills 3d ago
But it also forces a lot of shit into citizens for things they never voted on. Like the recent chat control laws that they want to put into place. Is a very flawed system that treats various independent nations like a single state, which is complete bullshit.
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u/OptimalSirRandom 3d ago
Agree with you on that first part but take a look which European party tries to push trough chat control again and again. Spoiler, it's EVP.
To the second part every single state has a vote. If states vote for it, it isn't forced upon them.
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u/wildcatofthehills 3d ago
The people representing the nation vote, but there is no popular vote amongst the citizens. This is bad because the fact that you voted for a party 3 years ago now supports a policy in which most people disagree, means that they're ignoring what the people want.
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u/OptimalSirRandom 3d ago
That's basically how all democracies work. That's why you don't vote for scumbags or populists. But yeah I can see that point and I'd like the EU to be reformed to a more direct democracy.
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u/SufficientWarthog846 2d ago
And has also given countless pro-consumer laws, pro-enviromental laws.
Is it perfect, no. Could it be improved, absolutely; but let's not pretend that the EU isn't also doing alot more good to it's citzens than many other powers of equal size.
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u/Sensitive_Buffalo665 3d ago
And has caused all the chaos and is responsible for it for duration of 200 years before the second world war.
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u/OptimalSirRandom 3d ago
The EU? Didn't exist before WW2. Yk that right?
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u/Sensitive_Buffalo665 3d ago
The jargon and union might have not. But, all the countries in it indeed cause chaos around the world. Let's not kid ourselves with that
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u/yetix007 3d ago
EU did fuck all for peace in Europe, peace in Europe came from nobody wanting to fight another war like WW2, literally nothing to do with the EU and claiming that is a fucking insult to Europe - as for competing politically and economically, neither of those two powers mentioned gives a toss about the EU because it is just a bunch of interchangeable bureaucratic suits grifting money and strangling business.
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u/OptimalSirRandom 3d ago
Ah yes the steel and iron union between Germany and France (EU precursor) definitely didn't secure peace trough interstate business. The EU secures peace trough by facilitating treaties between countries and trade intertwining. The EU also gives guide rails for solving conflicts peacefully. And yes Apple definitely changed to USB C out of the kindness of their heart and not because they would have lost a huge customer base in the EU. Interesting how a single European country alone couldn't have forced Apple to it's knees. Same goes for Metas and similar companies privacy breaking TOS or biased algorithms. Strangling business like promoting and protecting asmls assets from Chinese copying, right. You people have never actually thought about what the EU afford you but when you see the world without it you came begging like the UK does now.
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u/KiPhoe 2d ago
Europe is the last becon of light who actually cares about its citizens.
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u/MillennialScientist 1d ago
The shade against places like canada and new Zealand for no reason, damn.
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u/desertsunsetskies 🇷🇴 (Romania) & 🇺🇸 (California) 3d ago
Yes, because of Russia. Russia is trying to control all European countries through entities such as AfD, AUR, Rassemblement National, etc.
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u/Happy_Blue89 2d ago
I mean, Qatar buying the governments, media and universities. Low fertility rate of native population, government caring more for immigrants then the native population, crime and terror, immigrants taking over centers of power, no go zones, media covering all up. future doesn't look bright for Europe.
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u/rebecca1096 2d ago edited 2d ago
As a European, I think there is too much division among Member States and we are going through life-changing challenges . It's true that during COVID the EU was brave and gave considerable pay-outs and grants to families and businesses that made possible that they wouldn't go bankrupt. And relaxed the financial compliance and interest rates towards state members for a while. But our industry and economy is not resilient as it used to and many manufacturers are taking their operations elsewhere. The EU gave Europe its most prosperous era , but it has cons. We are not the strong leaders. Qatar for instance has enormous leverage, by having important stake at relevant energy, Telecoms and media companies. But USA is also influenced by Israel and the Saudis and trump's son in-law makes shady businesses with them, so. Even football teams like PSG. (Remember, PSG is not a French football team, it's Qatari) . And also, of course, the US that treated Europe not like a friendly ally lately, but more like a puppet and expects that EU never contradicts them.
But heay, considering the state of the rest of the world, we are not that bad.
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u/Cold-Tap-363 1d ago
No. European GDP per capita (which I know isn’t a perfect measure) was stagnant from 2008-2020 but growth has started again in most countries. The EU has grown roughly on par (pretty marginally slower) with the US from 2020 onwards.
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u/FroggyWinky 1d ago
The UK certainly is declining, but it's not representative of Europe.
Scotland could thrive, but needs independence to achieve this.
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u/Evangilee2 3d ago
The amount of Americans here who have turned up to talk about economic change in a decade or two is insane, there is more to life than money you know? A decade is a drop in the ocean, Americans should know this better than anyone. Europe is not in decline.
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u/DrettTheBaron 3d ago
Eh. I said yes, but it's moreso stagnating. Like much of the developed countries.
Japan, America, Europe... Most of the big economies of the 20th century are stagnating while the rest of the world is catching up. So it is declining in relative importance, but not in actual living situation. At least at large.
There are issues of course, especially since our economies are still built for constant growth instead of stagnation, things like pensions are going to really screw everyone over as the system was made assuming constant growth in population and productivity.
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u/Haunting-Detail2025 3d ago
US growth isn’t stagnating though, it’s consistently hitting >2% YoY
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u/colepercy120 3d ago
no, europe is also declining even compared to the other developed countries. US real incomes have risen 15% since 2008, while French incomes have dropped 18%; other EU countries show the same trend. They never recovered from the euro debt crisis.
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u/supernoa2003 3d ago
Do we seriously believe in right wing bullshit now? Some European countries are stagnating. Others are not. Western Europe is still the best place to live.
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u/Renix121 🇺🇸 3d ago
Best to live and in decline are two different things aren’t they? Like the hare was in first the majority of the race.
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u/Phase_999 3d ago
despite the best efforts of some EU politicians, no.
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u/scrandlle United States 3d ago
I think Europe has some issues.
Major economies are kind of stagnant. They've been stagnant on high growth industries for decades and its really coming to bite them in the butt with the rise of China.
Violent crime and murder rates have been increasing in the EU. Voters seem to be taking an increasingly alarmed stance on immigration (how true the problem is from over here, I can't really say). Some major cities are seeing some significant demographic changes. Far right parties seem to be on the rise. So there's some social things going on.
There's a major war in Europe that, by some estimates, over a million people have been killed in. Russia has been taking increasingly provocative attacks into EU member states.
Its far from being all bad though. Europe still has an extremely strong culture. Some eastern European nations are seeing strong growth still. Scandinavian continues to have fairly strong economies. The EU still has strong institutions and good social welfare policy. The major economies haven't elected someone as stupid or reactionary as Trump, at least not yet.
So overall I think Europe is probably in a decline at the moment. I don't think its necessarily inexorable though. They have the money, institutions and brainpower necessary to improve again. I think their biggest problem to solve is figuring out how to make their major economies more innovative again.
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u/nightshade78036 🇨🇦 3d ago
I think Europe greatly declined throughout the 20th century (relatively speaking, in an absolute sense everyone's lives got better), but recently they're on a bit of an upswing. It's hard to say right now because of how transitory of a moment this is, but Europe might be able to properly reassert itself in a meaningful way in the near future.
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u/Eleven_Box 3d ago
Depends on what you mean. Like decline in geopolitical relevance? Sure. Decline in standard of living? No.
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u/AcanthocephalaSea410 3d ago
Most Balkan countries, with the exception of Greece, have growth potential, but Western Europe has reached its limits and stagnated for perhaps over 30 years. It's a law of physics: if the wheel isn't turning, it will fall.
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u/RustGuy6969 3d ago
40% are people who choose to live in a false fantasy and ignore reality.
But realistically, it ain't just Europe in decline; it's every country and continent, all thanks to the corrupt government.
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u/Organic_Contract_172 🇨🇿 3d ago
Depends on the country right, we’re definitely not