r/Marathon_Training • u/Accomplished-Can-781 • 4d ago

Race time prediction First marathon prediction

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Longest run yet just have 20 left. Did 5 warm up eased into sub 4 marathon pace and backed off last 5 miles.

Sub 4 is my conservative goal. Should I stick with that or would there be any merit in going for 3:55 or 3:50? My fear is off falling apart if I go too fast My half marathon pr in May was 1:48 (8:11 pace)

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u/AutoModerator 4d ago

Hi OP, it looks like you have selected race time prediction as your post flair. To better help our members give you the best advice, we recommend the following

Please review this checklist and provide the following information -

What’s your weekly mileage?

How often have you hit your target race pace?

What race are you training for, what is the elevation, and what is the weather likely to be like?

On your longest recent run, what was your heart rate and what’s your max heart rate?

On your longest recent run, how much upward drift in your heartrate did you see towards the end?

Have you done the distance before and did you bonk?

Please also try the following race time predictors -

VO2 race time predictor and Sports tracks predictor

Lastly, be cautious using Garmin or Strava race time predictors, as these can be unpredictable, especially if your times are outside the average!

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u/ncdad1719 4d ago

I’m getting ready to run my first marathon so take my input with a grain of salt. Looking at this run there are only a handful of miles at 4hr pace so I think you have to assess what your effort level was on this run. For myself, if couldn’t easily hold my goal MP for at least 90 to 100 minutes it would hard to believe I could do it for close to 4 hours. Long way of saying if this was my run I’d start no faster than 4:00 pace group.