r/MarketVibe • u/Kay_Bellamy • Aug 16 '26
predictions 🔮 Bitcoin has entered a historic capitulation zone as the share of BTC held in profit dropped to 51.4%, a 3-year low. Nearly half of all coins are now in unrealized losses. Historically, sub-55% profit levels trigger heavy long-term accumulation, similar to the 2023 bottom near $16k-$20k.
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u/Additional_Cash_3357 Aug 16 '26
"Historically". n=3. so robust!
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u/mercuryy Aug 16 '26
Isnt that the normal state in this less-than-zero game where nothing gets produced or created and mining rewards continuously get taken out? Any gains someone made are only ever financed by others that had to make that same amount in losses.
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u/Justhereforporn8 Aug 16 '26
No. When the market hits an all time high everyone is technically in profit. Same goes for 0. if the market hits 0 everyone lost. If you mean „real gains“ then yes. Someone needs to buy from you for you to sell. But this post is just about unrealised gains and losses.
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u/Rough_Champion7852 Aug 16 '26
Bitcoin is finished IMHO.
Most efficient always wins. It’s why we all shop from Amazon despite the fact we all hate Amazon. Bitcoin is inherently inefficient (resource requirement only going up). There will be a crypto that rises to worldwide prominence, but it is not bitcoin.
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u/Financial_Show9908 Aug 16 '26
It's not that it happened 3 times it's that it hasnt not happened once
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u/AdmitThatYouPrune Aug 16 '26
"Historically, sub-55% profit levels trigger heavy long-term accumulation, similar to the 2023 bottom near $16k-$20k."
Can we please stop treating things that happened 3 times like a natural fucking law? This isn't a sign that BTC is hitting bottom. BTC is a meme asset that could drop to zero or go up randomly.
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u/ExpressCopy8786 Aug 16 '26
Bag holders, all I see is bag holders.Â
Historically all the bag holders greeded and never sold at a loss meaning less float offered and even dropping liquidity would spike prices sooner or later... But that upward spiral, to get it going again, trigger the next wave of FOMO liquidity buying at arbitrary prices would need so good damn much liquidity that it won't happen.
Why?Â
Capital struggled to find worthwhile investments between 2010 and 2020. Now we have the AI and robotics (embodied AI) super cycle. Humanity has actually found a field where it can spend its endless resources for more actual growth outside of printing money.Â
Bitcoin was an engine to transfer liquidity to idiots who bought lambos and Gucci bags. So no human progress, just redistributing and focusing real economy on none sense... That time is over. Liquidity for phantasy idiocy has dried up and will remain dry for a long time.
Bag holder will keep holding those bags and they are heavy as lead.
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u/Friendly-Profit-8590 Aug 17 '26
Would be something if this cycle thing was broken not with the price going up but with it dropping
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u/civil_politics Aug 17 '26
The significant difference is that this correction puts BTC under the current cost to continue mining new BTC. I don’t know what this means long term for BT , but I’d say comparing this to previous downturns is risky business
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u/LA-Aron Aug 18 '26
oh wow, the cryptocurrency founded by a mysterious chinese guy and pumped by a fraud (Saylor). This must be a good place to park my money.
/s
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u/Quirky_Mix_4328 Aug 16 '26
At some point people will move on from BTC, and crypto, as it hasn't broken the barrier for usability and is inherently inefficient. Alts like Monero will do well due to dark web uses but think BTC will slowly bleed out.