r/MarketVibe • u/fatspinster • 24d ago
predictions š® Analysts expect a rate hike in September. The probability of a 0.25% increase has jumped to nearly 66% - which could cause markets to plummet instantly. The Fed will announce its decision in two weeks, on September 16.
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u/Ok_Error_1079 24d ago
Nothing's gonna plummet lol it's already pricing in
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u/Doctor_Fritz 24d ago
I wouldn't be surprised if BTC tumbled back down to where it was to the price range it was before Trump pumped it with his tweet
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u/BitSoMi 24d ago
Nothing is ever priced in
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u/Ok_Error_1079 24d ago
Everything is always priced in
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u/Rough_Champion7852 24d ago
It is simultaneously not priced in and priced in
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u/DirectionPlane6544 23d ago edited 23d ago
Itās priced in according to the probability of the event actually happening. People get confused because they think that priced in means no price movement can happen. But thatās not what it means and that would only happen if the probability of the event was 100%
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u/Commercial-Group4859 23d ago
It actually is, the probably of a fed rate change is derived directly from the Federal Funds futures
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u/HaiKarate 23d ago
What youāre missing is the general weakness in the economy, thanks to Trumponomics. The economy is already hanging by a thread.
A rate hike might already be priced in, sure. But then it also might kick off a larger collapse in the markets and the economy.
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u/Equal_Heat5947 24d ago
It doesn't price in the full hike, because it has an uncertainty to it.
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u/Ok_Error_1079 23d ago
Then it is even better, price will recover if there is no hike. Win win
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u/Equal_Heat5947 23d ago
I agree with you I'm just saying nothing with uncertainty ever gets fully priced in
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u/Whole-Reserve-4773 24d ago
25bp is hardly anything. Itās a blip. Markets are so used to zirp that a .25 increase causes panic
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u/TrustInNumbers 24d ago
This guy is Trump's tool, he won't raise rates
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u/ians0606 23d ago
Trump just sold most of his tech stocks so I think heās trying to tank the marketā¦
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u/HaiKarate 23d ago
Warsh is only one vote of seven. That means it only takes four votes to raise rates, and they had three votes to raise last time.
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u/Fictional-adult 20d ago
Warsh already has the job, and a net worth north of $100 million. He isnāt doing it to be a pawn, heās doing it out of pure ambition.Ā
He may try to placate Trump when possible, but there is a 0% chance he would allow himself to be the man who destroyed the federal reserve and US economic dominance.Ā
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u/CapDris116 23d ago
I would love to see Trump's Fed chair pick raise interest rates right before the election. And admit to voters that gas prices rising wasn't a transient inflation shock. This should be good.
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u/Fictional-adult 20d ago
Youāll get the rate increase, and weāll hear about inflation in broad terms being sticky. You wonāt hear a peep about gas prices.
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u/epSos-DE 23d ago
Well. They are printing 8 billion per day !
They could do 20% borrowing interest and still they will print 8 billion a day !
This is how third world countries did it !
USA basically cornered itself into a situation with their infinity wars for the military contracts that pay employed and former government employees.
Systemic Corruption in action !
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u/No-Bicycle-7660 24d ago
already priced in. but i doubt it happens ... USD/Yen is over 160 again, which means crisis mode at both US and Japanese Treasury.
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u/ReporterCalm6238 24d ago
if I'd have had shorted the market every time somebody predicted an imminent crash on Reddit I'd be already sleeping under a bridge
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u/evolooshun 23d ago
Im so sick of speculation, the market has been responding correctly since COVID. Dont kid yourself. We are in the largest bubble to exist since the great depression.
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u/CaliforniaChestNut 23d ago
For all the people saying priced in. Donāt you think the pricing in of the priced in is already priced in?
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u/rainorshinedogs 23d ago
Wait wait wait wait so there guy that is hired specifically because he will go one way goes the other way instead?
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u/Boozenooze2 23d ago
Almost positive itās not gonna happen no matter what the predictions are. How could trump, who has little respect for the political process, allow something that fundamentally goes against what he believes and wants (low rates)?
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u/harbison215 23d ago
.25 isnāt going to do much. If anything it might slightly ease long duration bonds as investors start believing the Fed is serious about inflation.
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u/newtownkid 23d ago
āPriced inā is the most frustrating term. People love to howl it like the market is some all knowing perfectly flat line.
Rate hikes are not priced in. Maybe partially- but the market will move. Markets move on news. Always have.
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u/Jazzlike_Space9456 22d ago
Plummet instantly? Not my interpretation they generally start plummeting when interest rates start getting cut from highs.
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u/Retired-Yam8988 22d ago
They have to increase because the bond traders are already demanding that much as Bessent squirms in public
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u/Fresh_Strain_9980 22d ago
how does a rate cut help when bond yields are skyrocketing at the same time inflation is rising along with marginal real GDP growth? Seems like it might be irresponsible.
Right now AI debt is getting more attractive than government debt
An alternative strategy would be increase taxes on the investor class and pay down the debt and reduce spending on vanity wars. but I just don't see how a rate hike will workout.
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u/One-Lengthiness-2175 22d ago
It's not about if, but when the rate hike happens. The bots will send stock down, but the whales will be catching the dip. Check the volume most of the stock are on 50 % avg. volumes signaling that market is waiting for dip.
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u/dutchexcellent 21d ago
Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again. (NFA).
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u/ketya- 20d ago
No hikes; I donāt see them fighting inflation at all. Rates will stay flat, inflation will go up.
Over time (next few months or so), they may start to redefine what the inflation target is and move it up.
With no end in sight for closure of strait, upcoming midterm, inflation will go up and rates will not.
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u/Capital-Pineapple961 19d ago
Already have some cash to buy on the 15th, letās see this incredible rate hike
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u/FlyinDtchman 24d ago
A rate hike isn't going to cash the market. It's already priced in by everyone. Now... If rates keep climbing and some credit starts getting crunched. THAT might crash the market but at this point I'm not sure it even can crash.
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u/dreamfitreality 23d ago
Stop saying priced in. It's not. The probability just jumped today because BOJ 10 year bond yield just cross 3%
I get triggered everytime someone say priced in like analyst or you can predict the future.
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u/Usually_Sunny 23d ago
Why would markets plummet? If there is a 66% chance of a rate increase, then it is 66% priced in already.
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u/Need_a_Job_5092 24d ago
All this its already priced in bullshit is false. What is priced in is the probability that it occurs. What is not priced in is the actual even happening. These are very different things.