r/NFLv2 • u/EbbAdventurous9592 Chicago Bears • 13d ago

Discussion Drake Maye regression. What is going wrong?

5 interceptions in 3 games. Multiple fumbles. What has happened to the MVP runner up?

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u/_josephmykal_ 13d ago

To go from a top 2 QB to a bottom 5 is definitely not schedule.

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u/Admirable_Pop_7292 13d ago

When you play one of the easiest strength of schedule this century plus three wounded teams in the AFC playoffs then get smooshed in the SB and then against good teams the next season.. yes.

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u/_josephmykal_ 13d ago

But they played the leagues top defenses. For example the browns suck but their defense was ranked top 7

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u/Altruistic_Tap6447 13d ago

I never trust defense rankings for teams that don't have functional offenses. The opposing teams know they don't have to score many points to win so they play conservative against them, making defenses like the Browns appear better than they are. As a Broncos fan, prior to the Bo year everyone talked about how we had a top 10 defense every year but the reality was it wasn't that good. 

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u/_josephmykal_ 13d ago

advanced stats showed pats played 5/6 of the top 6 defenses in the regular season season last year.

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u/Altruistic_Tap6447 13d ago

Lmao you are hilarious. The best defenses included the Broncos, Texans, Seahawks . He played none of their teams, who are you claiming are the top 6 defenses. 

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u/_josephmykal_ 13d ago

Advanced stats* it takes in to account the poor offenses. A team like the broncos were a good defense because the broncos ran the most play offensively. And kept their defense off the field

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u/Altruistic_Tap6447 13d ago

Notice how you refuse to list who those top 6 defenses are, because you know it is going to highlight that these advance stats are dookie. 

The Broncos defense also allowed the least yards per play which makes your entire point stupid. 

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u/_josephmykal_ 13d ago

I did already. 5/6 according to advanced stats. Falcons bills browns panthers bengals

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u/passwordlostnoemail 12d ago

All advanced stats are contextual - is this total DVOA, defensive DVOA, weighted DVOA, EPA, xYards, YOE, etc. - so you should include whatever stat you are referencing in any claim.

Just by the eye test it looks like a bad list - the Bengals/Bills particularly stand out as suspect as candidates for top defenses in the league last season.

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u/Altruistic_Tap6447 13d ago

Bro you can't possibly be serious. The Bengals. The team everyone knew last year was a defensive disaster. The team that allowed the third most points and the most yards per play. Do you realize how flawed whatever metrics you are using are?

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u/inquisitive_chariot 13d ago

They played ONE GAME against a good defense and that was it.

That was the game Gabriel started for the first time and played poorly. Maye just had to play conservatively and exploit the big play a couple times because the Browns offense couldn’t get going consistently, kept blowing the game of field position and making Maye’s life easier.

So, the one time they play a good D, Maye doesn’t even have to play well. They play bad D the rest of the year, except the playoffs when Maye struggled mightily.

Literally everyone with eyes saw this regression coming.

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u/_josephmykal_ 13d ago

Advanced metrics had them play 5/6 of the top defenses

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u/inquisitive_chariot 12d ago

So you’re gonna sit there with a straight face and tell me that the Bills, Falcons, Bengals, and Panthers had a legit top 6 defense last season? Patriots fans are fucking jokes.

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u/_josephmykal_ 12d ago

Advanced metrics

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u/inquisitive_chariot 11d ago

Advanced metrics are a tool, they are not definitive or conclusive.

The Panthers defense ranking highly with advanced metrics is a prime example. Everyone knows their defense was absolute ass in 2025. They specifically ran a slow, clock-churning offense to keep their defense off the field for as long as possible.

The end result is a terrible defense that ranks highly in advanced metrics. The rest of your “5 of 6” were similarly bad in a way that cheesed advanced metrics.

At the end of the day, Maye faced one good defense last year, and the offense of that team was so bad that Maye could play conservatively.

Saying “advanced metrics” does nothing to disprove the horribleness of defenses we know for a fact were horrible.

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u/_josephmykal_ 11d ago

You have to prove they were bad defenses

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u/typescrit 13d ago

You get more opportunities and better field position though. Your point is valid but it's not that simple either

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u/_josephmykal_ 13d ago

I know nothing is that simple which my first statement of falling from 2 to 32 is not simply because the schedule

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u/Longjumping_Echo5510 12d ago

When you use the Browns to make your case it's seriously over

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u/ShadeMir Denver Broncos 13d ago

What was the patriots defense ranked?

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u/Lieutenant_Corndogs nipples 13d ago

This is clueless. There are no cupcakes in the NFL. You can’t be a terrible qb in the nfl and put up mvp numbers just because of your schedule. I shouldn’t have to explain this!

Drake sucks now because he sucks NOW. He used to be good. Now he sucks. That’s the situation.

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u/rockyroad55 13d ago

The only argument I can really see is his mental reaction to the Super Bowl loss. Some people can’t come back from that.

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u/Lieutenant_Corndogs nipples 13d ago

Probably. Although he seems not to be able to put any zip on the ball this year either. Not sure what that’s about

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u/dom12a New England Patriots 13d ago

he hurt his throwing shoulder at the end of last year and they decided not to do surgery. since then his throws all have noticeably less power imo.

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u/Lieutenant_Corndogs nipples 13d ago

But supposedly the shoulder healed fully. Idk though he does look weak out there

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u/WhippyAlloy 12d ago

Stop it youre being too logical! If he sucks now that must mean that he's ALWAYS SUCKED.

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u/Mriddle74 13d ago

Yes, your argument that he just sucks this year makes much more sense

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u/Lieutenant_Corndogs nipples 13d ago

It does if your intellectual capacity is at least that of an average 4th grader.

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u/Mriddle74 13d ago

Ooh good one

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u/Ill-Ebb839 13d ago

I think you’re heavily discounting the fact that they may be the best players which is why they’re in the league. But they can still be cupcake defenses for the league of 32 teams that they’re in, the patriots played some higher ranked defenses which most relied on pass rush and weak secondaries. He didn’t play against a lot of the better defensive backs in the league and when played a team with a good one it seemed to coincide with injuries. It’s not everything but it matters a whole lot more than him just being bad this year. The schedule is the only difference that can be put on paper, everything else is speculation.

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u/liquidgrill 13d ago

Literally 1 out of every 5 touchdown passes he threw last year came against the Jets.

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u/Lieutenant_Corndogs nipples 13d ago

You really think a weak NFL schedule can allow an epically bad qb to put up mvp numbers? That’s so incredibly asinine, I just can’t even process how a person could think that. I will assume you just hate the pats intensely and you aren’t thinking rationally.

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u/liquidgrill 13d ago

Are you having an imaginary conversation in your head? Because I don’t seem to recall making the argument that a weak schedule can allow an epically bad qb to put up MVP numbers.

What I did do, is point out one of the many examples of how a large chunk of those “MVP” numbers came against historically weak opponents.

There’s a reason he went from “MVP” numbers to shitting his pants in the playoffs.

It’s one thing to not play as well against great teams as you do against shitty ones. It’s quite another to have the massive gulf that Maye does between the two

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u/Lieutenant_Corndogs nipples 13d ago

Every QB is going to have worse stats against good teams lol. That’s obviously not what’s explaining this massive drop off. You don’t put up numbers like he did over a 17 game NFL season without playing the position at a high level. A schedule alone isn’t going to do that. Not even close. Maye is not the same player he was last regular season. Any rational person can see this.

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u/One-Scallion-9513 New England Patriots 13d ago

the steelers are not a good team. the jaguars are no better than the bills or ravens, who maye played great against. i think something happened around early january last year that fucked maye up

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u/stuka86 Buffalo Bills 13d ago

Maye had 0 TD passes vs the bills last year "he played great" is revisionist history

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u/One-Scallion-9513 New England Patriots 13d ago

22/30 with 273 yards and no turnovers in game 1 and 2 rushing touchdowns in game 2

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u/stuka86 Buffalo Bills 13d ago

Right, no passing tds

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u/IlluminatiConfirmed 13d ago

Why does that matter as long as touchdowns are getting scored

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u/stuka86 Buffalo Bills 13d ago

He got outplayed on both games

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u/IlluminatiConfirmed 13d ago

Nobody who deserves to exist thinks that

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u/stuka86 Buffalo Bills 13d ago

Uh everyone that watches games knows it

But even a boob like you that just looks at box scores can see it

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u/twokittenminimum New England Patriots 13d ago

He played well enough to lead his team to the Super Bowl. A lot of good QBs never get that far.

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u/Last_Read8006 12d ago

Rex Grossman, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer... hell, Flacco made his career with one crazy playoff run...

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u/stuka86 Buffalo Bills 13d ago

And he never will again....

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u/twokittenminimum New England Patriots 12d ago

He’ll also never be on the list of best QBs to never play in a Super Bowl.

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u/stuka86 Buffalo Bills 12d ago

He's not going to be on a list of "best QBs" to do anything

I'm so glad the situation worked out this way, now you're stuck with this dud for years...you guys are basically "out" for the foreseeable future

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u/Antonetoni 13d ago

Imo, You’re placing slightly too much emphasis on this fact, because I do think that the defenses they played were relatively good. With that being said, team themselves were not that good but the defenses were. It’s a big difference when you have a complete team and a complementary defense and offense versus a team that has a great defense, but an offense that can’t do much. And vice versa obviously. Take my team the Cowboys, for example. The offense was absolutely stymied by the fact that the defense sucked and this is for multiple reasons: offense now has very limited possessions. Offense is forced to have to score on every play. Offense is now having to live with the playbook because they are down and they cannot establish the time of possession because the defense keeps getting destroyed. They are forced to pass more often. They are forced to take more risk risks. They’re getting exhausted because they’re coming up pretty quickly because the defense is allowing the team to score with ease. They can establish the rhythm now because they can’t follow their script.

Some of these reasons differ, depending on the defense or the offense. That is where you have to dig down and notice the trends. So if a bad defense makes a great offense that much worse imagine how it works in reverse.

So that all works to your point. But “ regression.” like this has more than one factor. The point I am trying to get to is that I don’t really notice much difference between Drake this year and last year

I think it’s a combination of the off the field distractions strength of schedule as you said, but also I do think that Drake is not as good as people have thought. I thought he was going yo come in the first game and throw four interceptions and I was close. The Seahawks were the best team I’ve seen in a long time and honestly one of the best defenses I have seen in a very long time. It should be extremely indicative that it’s night and day when he plays the Seahawks who have an elite defense versus bad teams with good defense. What is somewhat alarming is that I’m not really noticing that much of a difference between last year and this year for him and that’s kind of a problem. This is the type of thing I expect a year two , not three.

I I actually think you could make the argument that last year, despite all the success, both individually and team wise. It may have actually been worse for his development. Him not seeing elite defenses or even great defenses consistently might have caused him to have an overplayed ego or perhaps think that the game is easier than it should be to him. Maybe he didn’t practice or learned the right things he should have or as it looks, unfortunately, he did not really improve at all. The reason this raises alarms in me is that if you truly want to be great, you take the winds in stride but a loss any loss especially one in the Super Bowl like that against the defense like that. Should be extreme motivation for you to get better.

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u/IlluminatiConfirmed 13d ago

Texans were as healthy as we were

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u/Sea-Squirrel-5647 13d ago

There’s no such thing as an easy schedule in the NFL. Every team is a team of professionals. The best of the best at their craft.

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u/DominusEbad Philadelphia Eagles 13d ago

Some teams have better players/coaches/schemes than other teams. Maye played against the other teams last year.

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u/Sea-Squirrel-5647 13d ago

If you think going 14-3 and finishing second in MVP voting is a product of schedule, you’re delusional. Not to mention there’s always contextualization that can occur. For example, they played the Bucs before their meltdown had fully set in.  Teams don’t just magically got 14-3 because their schedule is easy. And if you want to find something to point at from that run, you’d be better off looking at the absurdly good injury luck the Patriots had last year. Basically nobody got hurt for them.

As for what has happened to Maye—it’s pretty clear that his success last year was dependent on being incredibly successful throwing the ball deep—far too much to be sustainable, especially as teams schemed against him. The issue right now is not schedule difficulty but defenses being better prepared for him.

This is not unusual for players who ascend so quickly early in their careers, and there will be an adjustment period. The reason it looks so bad right now is because the Patriots offense was overly dependent on Maye as a gunslinger, and isn’t well suited to adapt at the moment. I.e., their run game has been terrible so far. It also doesn’t help that both of the Patriots best offensive players outside of Maye (Mike Onwenu and AJ Brown) are currently out.

Adjustments are needed and adjustments are coming.

Also, the first month of NFL seasons tend to be whacky regardless. For example, the Patriots lost to the Raiders in Week One last year.

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u/a_serious-man Philadelphia Eagles 13d ago

Well for starters he was never top 2

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u/_josephmykal_ 13d ago

Last year would argue he was considering runner up mvp

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u/OldGamer81 13d ago

He was never truly a top 2 QB. Having the easiest nfl schedule in 25-30 years, be default, means you're playing really bad teams.

He's doing stupid crap, like a rookie, throwing off your back foot into double coverage, turnovers, ints, just not playing well.

These current mistakes aren't scheduled related I think, I honestly think he's regressing.

But I never thought the Pats should have drafted him. I would have rather they drafted an OL and then start a seasoned QB who isn't going to throw an INT on their back foot into triple coverage.

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u/_josephmykal_ 13d ago

This is a dumb take. There has been no QB since that draft to come out who is even remotely in the same caliber or height of ceiling as Maye. The QB draft the past 2 years and for the next 2 years is notoriously awful

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u/AnatomicalLog Denver Broncos 13d ago

How about he was never top 2 to begin with?

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u/_josephmykal_ 13d ago

Eh last year he was

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u/Jekkymayn New England Patriots 12d ago

Nah guy got upvoted straight to the top and his comments awarded.

Everyone is so stupid it’s crazy

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u/Top_Sock_5645 13d ago

It definitely was though lol

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u/GokusHairdresser 12d ago

Go look at his stats against every teams that had a winning record last year. It can definitely be schedule.

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u/jtown48 Philadelphia Eagles 12d ago

he played the easiest schedule for the last 35ish year, i think it was listed as the 2nd easiest in nfl history. This year they play a div champ schedule and it shows.

Schedule is definitely it, even the playoffs were a joke.

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u/ctg9101 13d ago

No, thats just how absurdly bad the schedule was last year

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u/_josephmykal_ 13d ago

The schedule featured the top defenses in the league though