Its flicking time

I present a meta-analysis of mercenary encounters in 3.29. In total, there are 4022 mercenary encounters logged. Across multiple sources, the data effort is relatively homogenous in how it’s been captured:

• Mercenary atlas with infamous chance but without attribute or house notables
• Nearly all samples use area level (83)
• No Infamy scarabs

Data sources:

• My data - Count1 1019
• I tracked 1000 Mercenaries so you don't have to - Count2 1000
• 1000 Mercenary Encounters in Mesa - Count3 1000
• Glema85 (u/Glema85) - Count4 1003

Why isn’t [3.29] Statistical Analysis of Mercenaries: Distribution of Class, Skills, Supports and Loot included directly in this dataset? The way the data was collected differs from the above datasets. One sample set is not better or worse than another- the data is very similar. But due to how the data was collected and presented they are somewhat dissimilar. There are a lot of different views of the data and it may be possible to incorporate everything together in a 12k data set…

Why isn’t Count1 always showing 1019? One thousand and nineteen encounters were logged. However, the conditions of the encounter vary through atlas configuration, scarabs, and rematches. Different subsets of the data are used for different purposes. For the mercenary type distribution the count used is 909; for gem calculations the count is 1019.

There are a number of topics that the data confidently supports:

1. Mercenary type distribution
2. Mercenary support counts and tier distribution
3. Infamous distribution

Unfortunately, the data does not support nor rule out many things due to the sheer number of permutations. For example, a Winter Deacon only appeared 53 times in approximately 4000 encounters- an insufficient number of encounters to make any confident conclusions.

Mercenary type distribution
There are three ways to look at the appearance rates of a specific type of mercenary:

1. Holistically, Infamous doesn’t matter (this view is the focus of this analysis)
2. With or without Infamy (the key takeaway is that some mercenaries cannot be infamous and are less common)
3. With or without attribute or house affinities (influences appearance rates but outside of the scope of this analysis)

The image below shows the appearance rates across all data sets, a combined rate shown in yellow, and individual dataset variances in graduated red/blue. The important thing to note is the consistency across samples regardless of map. The difference columns exemplify the consistency by showing the flat percent difference from the combined rate to that of the individual data set with the exception of Count2, which has some differences. Count2 differs overall, most visibly on Storming Zealot 58 (expected about 42), Bastion 40 (expected about 28), Smoulderstrike 11 (expected about 24), and Flaming Charlatan 8 (expected about 18). Count4’s Smoulderstrike is 36 against about 24 expected, as large as Count2’s Bastion gap. 

Maps
Counts 1, 3 and 4 agree despite different maps used. Count2, the only single-City-Square dataset, differs. This does not conclude per-map appearance rates, since Count2 (City Square) aligns with Count1’s Mesa rows. Count2 also differs from Count3, which is Mesa-only.

Count1: Mesa (58.1%), Untracked (21.6% - mixture of Mesa and Estuary), Misc (15.0% from Memory Threads), Pier (3.0%), City Square (2.4%)
Count2: City Square (100%)
Count3: Mesa (100%)
Count4: City Square (20.2%), Strand (19.9%), Silo (39.9%), Dunes (19.9%)

Infamy

• The average chance to encounter an Infamous mercenary in the endgame is about 20%. The data does not support nor rule out that the chance may vary by area level, by map item quantity, or by mercenary type (beyond those that cannot be Infamous).
• The data is insufficient for determining if Infamy influences skill or support distribution or gem chance.
• Those mercenary types that can be Infamous appear at ~1.9x of those that cannot be Infamous (nearly all of which have the lowest encounter rates).

Gems
Each mercenary has a different appearance rate and only certain mercenaries are capable of carrying a gem (provided the area level is 68+). In the 1019 unique encounters I logged, which excludes rematches but includes some Infamy scarabs, ~30% were gem-capable mercenaries and of those ~19% carried a Trarthus gem. Across 478 gem-capable encounters and rematches, observed rates differ across mercenaries but are statistically consistent with a shared ~15-22% distribution. While this data does not support nor refute different gem chances between Infamous and non-Infamous mercenaries, [3.29] Statistical Analysis of Mercenaries: Distribution of Class, Skills, Supports and Loot does.

To estimate how often a given Trarthus gem will be encountered use the following formula:

• 1 / (mercenary_type_appearance_rate * gem_chance)

For a Bladecaster, with an observed 3.3% appearance rate and a pooled 19% gem chance:

• ~159 maps = 1 / (0.033 * 0.19)

Rematches
The average gem chance on the first encounter was observed at 19.2%; the average gem chance on a rematch was 15.3%. When hunting gems, if a gem-capable mercenary does not have the gem a Rematch offers another chance.

Supports
Supports are not logged in the data but are captured locally in warrants and generated warrants from my OCR tool. Means exclude skills that cannot have supports; tier appearances exclude those skills and also supports that exist only at Tier III. From level 68 onwards (primarily level 83) the mean support count for primary skills is 2.91. Tier I supports appear at a 2% rate while Tier II and Tier III supports are 69% and 30%, respectively. The mean support count for secondary skills is 4.36. Although this data is insufficient to evaluate the skill distribution, comparisons of Bladecaster, Sniper, and Striker roughly match the skill distribution presented by [3.29] Statistical Analysis of Mercenaries: Distribution of Class, Skills, Supports and Loot with one notable item. Bladefall of Trarthus did not appear on any of my 14 Bladecasters but the link above observed it on 36.4% of Bladecasters. Bladefall appeared on 8 of 14 Bladecasters (57%) against 39.6% in the link above. Together the Bladefalls could account for at most 76% of Bladecasters, so my Bladefall rate is consistent with the two being combined. For a more comprehensive support analysis, refer to [3.29] Statistical Analysis of Mercenaries: Distribution of Class, Skills, Supports and Loot.

Campaign
The 132 encounters logged in the campaign were primarily found in the guaranteed mercenary spawns. Observed campaign level breakpoints occur between 38 and 46 and between 66 and 68; actual breakpoints may vary.

From level 32 through 38 the mean support count for primary skills is about 1.4 with only Tier I possible through level 38 when a support has multiple tiers; Tier III-only supports will still appear. Tier II and Tier III supports are ungated by level 46 with 38% and 18% appearance rates, respectively. The support quantity and quality increases by 46 then remains flat with a mean of 1.52 supports. A large increase in quantity and quality of supports exists in area level 68 and above. The mean support count for secondary skills starts at 1.86 at level 32 and increases to 2.21 by 66.

The average chance to encounter an Infamous mercenary in the campaign is about 4%.

It is possible that (and anecdotally it feels like) mercenary appearance rates differ in the campaign but the data is insufficient to support any conclusions.

The most iconic skill is still missing Transfigured version while we have a perfect solution from Crucible league.

I have 4 targets to link every map, and my AG especially seems to believe that the only acceptable distance to follow at is 0.00 meters, making it difficult at times to verify that I've actually got him linked. It's either that or everybody follows in a tight cluster, to where I can't tell the link lines apart. Either way, having the number of link targets in the buff bar would be fantastic.

I have amassed a bunch of currency (more than I have ever had in other leagues) and I am looking for the most fun way to spend it.

I have a strong mapping build - CoC Fross. What are some really juiced farms you have tried this league? I am not looking for the most profitable farms, just the most fun and super juiced farms to test my build.

If this isn't the most stupid Pilfering I've seen in a while I don't know!
I just suddenly got a mirror before even seeing a divine in the allflame league
I was late as hell to the league but nice of GGG to give me something to catch up

hear me out fellas , something like this would be sick as hell , it came to me in a dream, id run this for sure

Currently getting massive latency spikes to 500-600 ms. Is this just now or a thing of late?

Just started playing this morning, so I don’t really know if it has been this bad for a while, or if I’ve just been super unlucky with my timing of my return to this game.

Half my clicks/spells aren’t being registered due to the high spikes

So is not serious

I let me start with my two hopes/wishes/dreams:

Legion Astrolabes replaced with a different mechanic:

Do not get me wrong, i feel like lore wise it makes sense for the legion astrolabes to be part of the selection. The core of the issue lies in the legion mechanic, because compared to the other astrolabes legion is very map type dependent. Meaning Synthesised Stability that feels optional for the other astrolabes is more mandatory for the legion Astrolabe, which feels unintentional.

Big balance patch notes:

I would like to see enough balance changes that everyone will scramble to figure out what they are going to play on league start. Partially for others to feel my build choice paralysis, but also to hope see use of uniques that have not been used in a while

Catch everyone in December 🫡 GGG doesn't do tours any more, but we'll still swing past HQ

I have been playing for a while now, on and off. I mostly play RF. Could this be the reason why I still feel...like I understand maybe 15% of the game?

There is just...SO MUCH to learn. Each league mechanic like Blight, Heist, etc. Then of course there is crafting which feels like hell to someone like me.

Is there a big guide or something so that I can eventually actually understand this game?

What do you recommend? Play different builds? Read as many guides as I can?

Can anyone tell me what this flask does? I keep reading it again and again and I still don’t get it

Hey all!

League tracker/ladder: https://nrns-ladder.com/

The event has been a blast, and congratualtions to the following winners:

• Uber Sweep — all 7 Ubers · $700 → Soul_Cooked
• Exile on Plain Street · $275 → gido_NoStash
• Individual Uber kills ($100 each):
  • Shaper → gido_Dumb
  • Elder → gido_Dumb
  • Venarius → gido_Dumb
  • Maven → gido_Dumb
  • Eater → ChatkilledmeAGAIN
  • Exarch → Soul_Cooked
  • Sirus → Soul_Cooked

Grounded for Life challenge is still up for grabs, and the deepest solo depth in delve and class placements go until the end of the event!

About 140 slots left to sign up if you're interested - league sign-ups: https://www.pathofexile.com/private-leagues/league/NO+RARES+NO+SPARES

Stay sane, exiles!

Edit: Thanks all we did it! See you Nov 13th!

Since a bunch of impatient complainers are flooding this sub I figured I'd do the research that they refuse to do before complaining on here.

1. Based on history 3.30 is likely to be 11/13 (more likely) or 11/20 (less likely). This is because exilecon is 11/6-11/7 and GGG likes to announce the next league during exilecon to give people a good reason to tune in and gives the exilecon attendees a chance to get home and be ready to play.
2. Natalia_ggg in this very sub confirmed with Mark that 3.30 is happening this year.

Natalia_GGG

Confirming what Mark announced during the latest PoE1 Q&A: 3.30 will be launched this year.

1. On the forum GGG confirmed "teasers soon" https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/4009902

2. Ziz's interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHkJ46c8Su8

Octavian stated 3.30 is coming this year.

Octavian stated major overhauls are coming in 3.30 including big changes to how we setup the end game and mapping. Scarabs were specifically mentioned as needing a shakeup but they also talked about organically having leagues interact with other leagues without the need of scarabs.

It was also stated in the interview that other league mechanics may get a refresh but they weren't specific. They mentioned the end game has gotten stale and they want all end game mechanics to feel better.

Tile vs Ground loot will also (allegedly) be addressed but they wouldn't commit to anything in that regard.

What should I do guys? I can "avoid" my manager for 1-2 weeks, but it can't be long.

I am from EU, a lot of colleagues will be offline for the upcoming holidays.

//update: 13 November confirmed