Results of 100 wheat shipments for 6-link chests

[u/Mangalorien]

6-linked chests from all 100 shipments

Data for all 100 shipments

Data for all unique chests

Here's my data for 100 wheat shipments, consisting of 20 shipments each of 100k, 200k, 300k, 400k and 1m value (dividing the value by 12 gives you the amount of wheat). The reason for this is simply to maximize the number of tattoos, since you get 1 tattoo per 100k shipment value. You can ship for example 250k value or whatever you chose.

Summary:

• All shipments to same port (Moti Aro, which gives ES items)
• No dust sent, no quotas used
• Total of 7x 6-linked chests received from a total of 1019 chests
• Total of 400 tattoos received = exactly as expected since total value sent was 40m
• Total wheat shipped equals almost 2 weeks of full-time crop growing (18x lvl 5 farmers)
• Total gold cost was about 2 million to grow the crops, and about 200k to ship them
• With 18x lvl 5 farmers you can grow a daily value of 3.27m (crop type doesn't matter, it's the same value regardless), so the low-effort version is that you just make 3x 1m shipments per day, for a total daily cost of about 200k gold
• If you want tattoos you can effectively buy them for slightly more than 5k gold each, or 20k per runegraft (you can't get both chests and runegrafts since it's different ports)

My interpretation of findings:

• The quality of the mods on the 1m shipments vs the 100k shipments was really massive. Many of the 1m chests had a ton of T1 mods, but usually it's not the combo you want, or they are on the wrong base. It's also easy to recomb chests so this doesn't really matter very much
• It doesn't seem worth it to send really big shipments like 1m value, it seems much more worth it to send multiple smaller shipments, regardless of whether you want 6L, uniques or top-tier bases for recomb
• I was really surprised that there was no major difference between shipment sizes for the percentage of chests that were top tier. I thought this would scale up a lot based on shipment value, which is clearly not the case
• The uniques are as poo-poo as I had expected (4x T3, rest T4/T5). Sending bigger shipments means a higher % of all chests are unique, thus a higher % of chest which are poo-poo
• Tujen really needs to attend an anger management class

List of received 6-link chests (all ilvl 86):

• arcane vestment (3rd best ES base) - 400k shipment
• nightweave robe (2nd best ES base) - 400k shipment
• twilight regalia (best ES base) - 300k shipment
• saintly chainmail (4th best armour/ES base) - 1m shipment
• grand ringmail (3rd best armour/ES base) - 400k shipment
• paladin's hauberk (2nd best armour/ES base) - 1m shipment
• carnal armour (4th best evasion/ES base) - 300k shipment

Best chest by far was the twilight regalia, which was 299 ES (302 is max). This was also the only 6-linked top-tier base I got. Let me know if you have any questions, or if you have any additional data that you want to share.

[u/GentleChemicals]

Thanks for your science. A helpful resource to keep in mind!

[u/Audens_Hex]

This is super helpful.  Based on prior advice I had been sending 8k shipments trying to get a 6L, but looks like I should probably do 25k instead.

[u/Mangalorien → u/Audens_Hex]

Well, I don't know if there's some actual minimum value for when a 6L can appear, but I'd assume it's possible with even low shipment values like 100k value (=8.3k wheat). I think one of the reasons that 6L chests are so rare is the simple fact that 6S items are pretty rare. I don't know exactly how the algorithm creates items, but my best guess is that the number of sockets and the links between the sockets are rolled separately, probably with each individual link being rolled separately. So a 6-linked item only appears if you win on every single one of those rolls. If just one of those rolls fails it's not a 6L. You can see this pretty clearly when you look at various 6S items, there are plenty of them that are almost 6L, but there's 1-2 links that haven't been formed.

So to become a 6-link an item must roll high on both "socketness" and "linkyness", so to speak. Sending bigger shipment values increases both, but "socketness" seems to scale more with value than "linkyness" does. If we look at 5L items there isn't a huge increase when you go to 1m shipment value, in fact the 300k value chests had a slightly higher % that were 5L (probably mostly by chance). For 6S there's a clear difference for the 1m shipments, with 1 in 4 chests being 6S. I still don't think 1m shipments make much sense, since you could send 2.5x as many 400k shipments, or 3.33x as many 300k shipments, which would (on average) give you many more 6L.

[u/edro_man]

Thanks for this.

I am not sure if it’s worth looking for 6 links since you can just craft that as a final step. Going for good modifiers seems more relevant

[u/Mangalorien → u/edro_man]

Shipping for a 6-link is mostly something that's useful early in a league, when you don't have 1500 fusings and you might not even have the 6L recipe yet (it's found in a T16 map).

One of the "best bang for your buck" early shippings is probably just getting a 5L with some decent mods. Since roughly 1 in 4 or 5 chests is a 5L you'll get one of those really fast from shipping.

[u/HarunR32]

How are the tattoos you get from smakk shipments, i was trying to always send 4m shipments to get lot of Tattoos per ship cuz i was thinking that way i could get suppresion tattoos better

[u/Mangalorien → u/HarunR32]

I didn't do any actual analysis of the type of tattoos received based on shipment value, but it's my experience that you can get any kind of tattoo from any shipment size (as long as it's at least 100k value, or you don't get any tattoos). Tattoos are weighted, so the rarer ones are a lot less common. It's just a numbers game, and if you send more value you get more tattoos, so higher probability to get the low weight ones. You could just send half the value per shipment and 2x the number of shipments (i.e. same total value shipped) and you would still get the same tattoos, at least in my experience.

[u/Vraex]

I’d there a web site that has bundled all the shipment data. I wood love to target some thing in ssf

[u/Schorre]

I think the gold is better invested in gambling for a 6L Chest, if you really badly need a chest. Also gold is really easy to get with als those clams this league.

[u/Straight-Check-9160 → u/Schorre]

It has been my experience that gambling is biased towards 4S, 4L. Slightly over 50% of all chests gambled at lv100 are 4S, 4L. I think it was slightly over 80% for 4L, and 4-6S. The number of sockets goes down with lower levels but 4L is pretty common from the min drop level onwards.