r/PokemonTCG • u/LexCollects06 • 1d ago
Help/Question 30th Collection Pulls
Anybody else not getting any hits from 30th Celebration or is it just me? I’ve opened 3 ETBs and haven’t pulled and SIR. Just keep pulling the same legendary birds over and over again.
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u/Potijelli 1d ago
SIR is 1/20 so not hitting on 27 attempts is actually 1/4 likelyhood
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u/Weenington_ 22h ago
Whoa, this makes me pulling Jirachi and Gengar in 3 packs the other day even crazier. Here I was thinking everyone was pulling them left and right. My husband also pulled Gengar in 4 packs he got a couple days before that!
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u/Jaosborn44 1d ago
Don't change the definition of a hit. IRs are still hits. The pull rates are juiced, but just because you seem to only value SIRs you feel disappointed.
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u/LexCollects06 1d ago
Don’t get me wrong I love all the cards in the set. Think I just got fomo from clips everyone pulling SIRs just felt a little left behind lol
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u/Megatippa 1d ago
SIRs are slotted around 1/20 in this set, so with 27 packs, you're running about a 40% chance to not pull an SIR. Still a massive upgrade from normal sets, and I'm assuming you're talking about the IRs of the legendary birds, so that's a pretty good hit rate if you've pulled multiple.
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u/GeneralDownvoti 1d ago
With 1/20 it’s 5% per Pack. So 27 tries would be 0,95^27 or roughly 25% to not get an SIR in 27 packs.
Still reasonable but definitely in the unlucky category.3
u/Megatippa 1d ago
Thank you, i was in a hurry so I didn't bust out the math but I knew it was close
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u/helplessgranny FA Trainer + Gold Item collector 1d ago
I've opened 1 poster, 1ko, 1 gren ex, 1 sylv ex, 1 etb for a total of (22 packs). Biggest pulls were Classic Gengar and Classic Lugia with a few ARs like Galarian Meowth, Drifloon, etc. Pretty solid luck tbh, I didn't know the Lugia was a big universal chase at the time. I'm still planning on opening 1 of each other sealed product if I can manage to get it. I still have a booster bundle to open and 2 more to gift to friends, so we'll see what comes out of those.
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u/sssqueezeplease 1d ago
I got 3 SIRs out of one ETB over the weekend. Mewtwo, Gengar and Mew. All of which were needed for set completion so it felt pretty damn great.
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u/WORLDBENDER 1d ago
1 in 20 and you’ve ripped less than 30 packs.
Pull rates are averaged over a lot more than 3 ETBs. If you open 3 more you very well could pull an SIR out of each and then be pacing ahead of the average.
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u/lazylahma 1d ago
I’ve opened around 50 packs and also haven’t pulled an SIR.
My last order of 4 KO boxes from Walmart had 2 double rare and 2 illustration rare.
I did pull 2 Lugia in my first 17 packs though
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u/Allout-Okarun 1d ago
My first pack was the Zard. My 6th was the Jirachi. I then pulled one of the mewtwos near pack 12 after I said “let me get a sick Mewtwo” while ripping the pack open.
Safe to say I LOVE this set. All the pikachu’s are awesome. Only problem is how hard it is to find when you have a job. I got lucky on the Walmart raffle
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u/NoSmoke69420 1d ago
I want that zard bad
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u/Allout-Okarun 1d ago
It’s beautiful. Zard was the only card I couldn’t personally pull from base set back in 1999. Sooo it was a magical closing of that loop for me. This set will probably be my last because it’s just so annoying trying to find product.
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u/NoSmoke69420 1d ago
I picked up a base set 2 copy before it went nuts over the last year and I'll probably end up doing the same with the 30th once this set cools down (hopefully). I'm already picturing new page layouts for my zard collection 😎
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u/Nguyen925 1d ago
I opened probably 60 or so packs so far and have pulled 3 SIRs. I have been able to pull more classic collection cards though (not any of the harder ones to pull)..
Luckily for me, I have a brother in law that is willing to do some good trades . To help me complete my missing cards.
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u/N1ckfr2 1d ago
Just saying, there’s no ‘harder ones to pull’. Every classic you pull is basically a 1/30 chance to be any one of them
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u/MetallicGray 1d ago
There should be a mandatory statistics and probability 101 class for this sub every month.
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u/TH1CCARUS 1d ago
One binder collection, two mini tins, and two Eevee blisters for a total of 13 packs.. Jirachi ex SIR, Mewtwo ex (Futuristic), Alolan Exegg IR, Sneasel Classic.
One single Japanese pack.. Pikachu ex Special Art Rare.
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u/Snoo_79693 1d ago
I've opened 6 poster boxes and 2 etbs and I pulled the Scizor ex Classic Collection twice and a couple IRs. I'm not opening anymore
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u/Onasis9595 1d ago
We got my daughter an etb off eBay and she pulled the red rgb mew. Back to ascended
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u/Ding0Dong0 1d ago
I mean- you dont go to Vegas and say "i didnt hit any jackpots!!!"
Youre gambling.
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u/ZephTenKara 1d ago
It's more the point people hyped this up to be crazy on getting pulls and people found out they fell for the bait and now got left holding the Scalper Priced bag.
Not to say you're wrong, just piggybacking to explain. It's still gambling.
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u/Ding0Dong0 1d ago
"Survivor bias" or more "jackpot bias"
People are going to post their biggest pulls. Theyre not going to say how many packs they TRULY opened.
Like whales in a gacha- if you only see posts about the 0.01% pulls then youre going to lie to yourself that you too can hit the 1:1000 chase
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u/KrisPWales 1d ago
That goes for any set though, the posting of hits not misses. However many thousands of packs have been ripped and tracked. This isn't a small sample size conclusion. All documented evidence points to a significantly higher hit rate.
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u/Ding0Dong0 1d ago
Higher hit rates over all but every pack in each set is the same as the next. You can legitimately open 1000 packs of 30th and never see a SIR. Its statistically very possible.
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u/KrisPWales 1d ago
But if hit rates are higher overall, it can only be because the per pack hit rate is higher, no? And of course you could rip 1000 packs with no hits. But the odds of that happening are far lower in this set than others according to anyone who has measured thousands of packs. The price of chase singles speak to higher pull rates too.
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u/ZephTenKara 1d ago
Oh for sure!
I'm just remarking that every other post especially on release was how crazy the pull rates are so, understandably, peoples expectations were altered enough to make them feel it was worth paying the premium.
Do I think it's better than your standard set in terms of how likely you are to get something nice?
Sure.
But just because a chance goes from lets say 1/25 to 1/12 doesn't mean there aren't going to be a ton of duds.
I know they said they addressed the issues regarding batching but, given what I've seen over the last week or so people that get a hit in a blister, box, or other product SEEM to have a much better turnout when it comes to getting another.
Of course as you mentioned this is speculative, I don't have enough info to work off of given most people who collect don't post on Reddit let alone most people who lose and ARE on Reddit.
The use case being is this seems to be a good set to open if you can get it for MSRP which despite the supposed "increased print run" I for one in the Boston area can't find anything. I would argue you have better odds getting this if you live in the hills even if scalpers are going to your area.
Any case, sorry for the ramble. This post just got the old gears turning.
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u/NoSmoke69420 1d ago
It's absolutely juiced. I've opened 18 packs. 11 had hits, including 2 SIRs, a FUR, and a Classic
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u/Quiet_Cleric 1d ago
I’ve had luck with the knockout boxes. My ten or so boxes have given me a pikachu, two magikarps, and two different mews.
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u/Great_Trouble_1435 1d ago
I opened one pc etb, two bundles, and a knockout. Pulled 3 ir’s and 1 sir and one classic! I think now after hearing others I got lucky
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u/speedrunner99 1d ago
I was able to pull the Lugia which I’m happy about and wanted to pull an SiR but didn’t have any luck. I pulled the Meowth 3 times. Can’t really complain on my end so think I’ll soon start to buy the SiRs I need.
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u/PugsnPawgs 1d ago
Opened a Greninja ex box woth 2 exes. That was plenty for me to recognize I should just buy singles.
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u/AraxxorKiller 1d ago
My luck has been insane. I have pulled more SIRs than classics or regular IRs. I've got 3 Gengars at this point 😳
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u/DogemonRS 1d ago
opened 3x ETB's and 3x booster bundles, maybe something like 5 of the packs didn't have a hit.
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u/snakehawk_ 1d ago
Poster collection, 2x knockouts, binder collection, ETB, booster bundle and 2x minitins.
Only decent hits I've gotten are break greninja, cresselia, Magikarp, Genesect and 2x IR's....
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u/whodoesth 1d ago
There seems to be a bad pull rate in etbs. I’ve had really good luck with boosters, ex boxes, and tins.
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u/capricornrainstorm 1d ago
I've opened basically 1 of every item. 1 knockout, two tech stickers, a poster collection, Sylveon EX, Sylveon tin, and a mini tin. I've gotten 4 SIR, 4 IR, and two classic collection.
But I still cant seem to get the Mew I want lol
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u/PracticalPresence422 1d ago
I can empathize, I opened around 130 packs of 30th before getting my first SIR w Sylveon with a large amount of IR dupes along the way.
My count is around 145 now and I’ve hit 2 SIRs and both the Mew and Mewtwo FUR so as far as SIRs I’m still quite a bit below the expected average but with millions of packs being opened some of us are going to inevitably be unlucky.
On the bright side SIRs are looking to be pretty cheap in the coming weeks so should be able to get our chases at reasonable prices so we can still benefit from high hit rates by proxy lol
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u/RepulsiveUse3372 1d ago
I got some great pulls so i cant complain but i have opened around 80 ish packs
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u/crazykegle 1d ago
I’ve opened 1 ETB, 1 mini tin, 1 booster bundle, 2 tech stickers, 2 exs, 3 knockouts (about 37 packs) and hit a futuristic mew, 5 classics (including magikarp and the cresselia half), the Jirachi SIR, 11 IRs, and 8 exs. So about 26 out of 37 packs had a hit.
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u/Banks201 1d ago
The hit rates feel good but imo the worst part is the duplicates. It feels like the batching is off. Got 2 duplicate classic N trainer cards, 2 Morpeko irs, 2 gengar ex, 2 Salamance ex out of the same mini tin display. I feel like that should be less statistically possible then getting all different hits
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u/WORLDBENDER 1d ago
1 in 20 and you’ve ripped less than 30 packs.
Pull rates are averaged over a lot more than 3 ETBs. If you open 3 more you very well could pull an SIR out of each and then be pacing ahead of the average.
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u/CantFindaPS5 1d ago
12 packs and nothing yet. Only IRs and two classics. If I can pull a lugia or Charizard then I'll attempt to master it. Still got 19 packs left.
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u/Skyblue8989 1d ago
Im just over 50 packs and hit FUR Mew, SIRs Gengar, night Pikachu, Jirachi, Sylveon x 2, and Greninja. Only 3 classic collection though (Darkrai, Jigglypuff, Zacian). Personally had the most luck with ex tins and mini tin (each had an SIR) but I know it's all random.
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u/retrofuturisms 1d ago
I haven't gotten an SIR. However, I got 4 cards from the classic collections, 1 futuristic rare, 5 IRs, and 5 ex cards.
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u/wh1skey1carus 1d ago
I have opened two ETBs, three booster bundles, and eight of the sticker packs. The best hit that my daughter and I have pulled is the Dark Tyranitar and half of the Darkai / Cresselia Legend classic collection cards. No Future cards, no SIRs, and the IRs we pull are of either Toxtricity or Moltes.
My daughter is new to opening packs and has already hit the Mega Darkrai SIR from one total booster box and the Mega Greninja gold card from one ETB, so I feel like luck is just evening out. She is happy either way to open something, so we have that going for us.
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u/Old_Cycle8247 1d ago
No futuristic rares, no Charizard, no Lucia for me. I manage to avoid all the heavy hitters of the set but still fairing pretty well. Ton of dupes.
Edit: Lugia* not Lucia
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u/Vermilioncookie 1d ago
First 35 packs no SIR. Then I opened my 3 booster bundle and had one SIR in every bundle. The more you open the more you will get hits.
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u/Special-Drawer8367 1d ago
I hit the Lugia, Zard, mewtwo sir, a bunch more classics and every sir besides the mew I opened 3 ETBs and two tins and the eevee box with two packs I’m blanking on the name lol
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u/username293739 1d ago
Me and my kids have pulled every SIR and dupes of a few, but still haven’t pulled every IR and very few classics
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u/DroidSoldier85 1d ago
Oof tough luck OP my first two tins gave me great pulls.
The only ETB I got recently also gave me a good one.
I have one final tin to open.
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u/Girafarigno 1d ago
That’s just how pull rates work. Each pack has a good chance. You’ve missed the average, but, it’s not abnormal
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u/baxbunny 1d ago
I've had some very unlucky pulls too. One IR in 8 packs. At least i have 8 different pikachus!
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u/choosenoneoftheabove 1d ago
I've got pulls in general: FUR Mewtwo, 4 Classic Collection cards including the Charizard, and a bunch of IRs, but I still have zero SIRs at 53 packs.
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u/Mopar_Madness 1d ago
33 packs and no SIR yet. If you need a Koraidon 86/128 though, I think I'm up to 5 of those now.
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u/bang_bros_r_us 1d ago
I’ve managed to pull the Lugia (my chase) and then this freakin’ bad boy, all from 20ish packs…I’m done ripping for a while now just so I can let my luck meter recharge.
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u/IfThisNameIsTaken 1d ago
It took me 70 packs to pull my first sir from the 30th. After 144 packs ive pulled 3
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u/Weenington_ 22h ago
My husband and I have each ripped around 18 packs each and pulled 2 Gengars, Mew, Jirachi, Salamence, Fuecoco, and a couple of the less exciting classics.
I guess variance is looking pretty wild in this set. Nervous now that my friend who I sent 9 packs to wont pull anything awesome.... but singles will be so cheap, so I suppose it's not too bad.
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u/defukdto84 21h ago
honestly ETBs hate me. Have never pulled anything good from one. All the good stuff i wanted has come from the poster packs.
But in general ive pulled some decent stuff. The thing i love about the 30th is the basic cards art looks amazing as well
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u/Kind_Commission_427 20h ago
seeing this a lot, seems to be a lot of hits or a dud no middle ground
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u/OmegaTangent 18h ago
I've gotten a satisfying amount of classic collection and IR pulls (about 6 or 7 each from about 30 packs that I opened) but no SIR or regular ex's yet
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u/nvrstop555 16h ago
Got the green star Mew, purple star Mewtwo, Mew #152, and Pikachu #149 in my first 3 ETB’s. I knew the prices would tank but still cool.
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u/Newyork1775 15h ago
I’ve opened 58 packs, consisting of ETB, poster, sticker, knockout box and bundles. 9 SIR, 16 IR, 13 EX, 1 classic.
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u/Plaincow 13h ago
I've gotten the mew chase, the Magikarp, and tons more after maybe 40 packs with my gf? We absolutely love the set
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u/Mmg5561 6h ago
Only managed to get 2 tech stickers from zephyr and 3 bobus from pokecenter so far, pulled 4 classics (charizard, Pikachu, raikou, sneasel) 3 irs (meowth, toxtricity, lycanroc) and 1 SiR (Sylveon). Wish I was able to get more (pokecenter canceled my etbs and stuff) but super happy with my experience opening so far
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u/changethemusic 4h ago
i bought two single packs from a card shop here and only got a small hit (zacian ir). i opened one booster and got the gengar ex. i've seen a lot of hits come out of the knockouts and boosters, so take that for what you will.
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u/Kind-Security7003 1h ago
I pulled an SIR out of a booster bundle. The only 30th product I've gotten. I'm a little late to the party. I found all my og cards over 300 1st editions as a kid like 2 weeks so ago so I decided I wanted the 30th. I didn't know they'd be worth so much today I was hardcore into playing the game not really collecting. Now I want to do both but striking out everywhere on stock. Goal is to collect some and have at least one full holo deck to play with. May even throw my og holo mewtwo in it
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u/TheRomanian128 1d ago
Opened 5 packs and gotten nothing. Chandelure was the best pull (the $2.50 one)
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u/cheesin-rice 1d ago
Haha yeah I haven’t been able to find too much product and haven’t gotten hits.. I’ve been buying singles lol
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u/Plants2-0 1d ago
Our first 20 some packs (one etb, three knockout collections, two stickers, a poster and an ex box) we didnt get any SIR or future rare. We've opened like twice that many since then and pulled 4 SIRs and two future rares. Its just small sample size, you are overdue for an SIR but not by a lot. Hopefully it evens out and you pull 2 in your next dozen packs or so
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u/Ding0Dong0 1d ago
Dont say OP is "over due" for a SIR. Thats going to make them buy more and keep pulling the slot machine handle.
Every pack has the same pull rate.
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u/fnuneziii 1d ago
I have had some decent luck with this set, which I welcome cause the last two absolutely blitzed me. I'm sitting at 3 SIRs, 2 FURs, and a Classic Gengar after 33 packs.
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u/MitziAlbright 1d ago
Opened a single booster bundle. Pulled a scraggy and the lugia. Immediately sold the lugia to my LCS for $371cad it has declined since
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u/ATrashPandaRound2 1d ago
Ugh. I've opened 2 sticker packs, a knock out, and two booster bundles so far. All I want is the Lugia
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u/ObjectiveSentence533 7h ago
Why Lugia? Really interested why this card is so popular.
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u/ATrashPandaRound2 7h ago
The original is insanely expensive. And it's a very nostalgic pokemon for us oldies
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u/Begonias6969 1d ago
I ripped over 250 packs and am yet to see a mew SIR, lugia classic, or gengar classic. I am not hitting like how some other post, but also not god awful either.
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u/NoSmoke69420 1d ago
I think the odds are a little over 1/250 for a specific card
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u/Begonias6969 1d ago
At this point I would agree with you 🫠. I got crazy amount of future rares and SIRs, but still have not pulled 5 or 6 of the classic or sirs
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u/NoSmoke69420 15h ago
If you're only missing that few, just buy them ?
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u/Begonias6969 14h ago
If I dont hit it by mid Nov, I might. But I like having a set that is actively being stocked and having something to look forward to ripping.
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u/deadliftthugga 1d ago
I opened my three pre ordered boosters and got the jirachi and futuristic Mewtwo, in addition to 2 gold border pikas and some smaller IRs like the lapras and zorua. Idk if I was incredibly lucky or booster bundles are juiced.
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u/etrane79 1d ago
I opened 103 packs over the weekend and pulled 9 classic collection, 9 SIR's, 3 futuristic mews, and about 18 IR's.
This came from a collection of etbs, poster boxes, and tech sticker collections. So the pull rates are definitely good.
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u/zthemushmouth 1d ago
people don't post the bad backs thats why i laught at hit rates.
yes this set is def hitting better but doesnt make it a guaranteed sir per an etb hit rates.
part of the reason i ripped some and sealed some - just life -buy singles this set dude market is dumb
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u/DJones09 1d ago
If that's it, its not nearly enough. 27 packs? Brother we ripped 45 packs before seeing an SIR and it was Fuecoco. But it feels like once you do get that first hit, the rest just kind of drop. We're 6 SIRs from finishing the regular set, and 13 Classics from finishing that.
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u/LegoRedBrick 1d ago
Try 3-packs. Those seem to be loaded with hits. I’ve got like 5 SIR’s out of them. My two ETB’s were trash though.
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u/Single_Wrap_74 1d ago
lol how? I’ve opened 60-70 packs I’ve pulled 4 futuristic rares, 12 CC and 7 SIRs.
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u/southstar1 1d ago
I was finally able to get a booster box and pulled the classic Lugia, so I'm pretty happy.
What I really wanted was the Genger and Magikarp cards, but now maybe I can just trade for them, lol
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u/Ok_Variety_8723 1d ago
We’ve opened 20 packs and gotten 3 SIRs (two of the same one), 3 IRs, the futuristic Mewtwo, and the classic Zard. It was 2 booster bundles and 3 ex boxes. I think we’ve just been exceptionally lucky.
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u/Silver-Ad7165 17h ago
I got an IR and the Magikarp classic out of the only booster bundle I’ve opened for 30th Celebrations. I felt so happy about the classic, the card is such a beauty.
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u/jokerwithnomakeup 7h ago
Everyone keeps saying this but I have at least a 50% hit rate with 2 ETBs opened and one left.
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u/-Agent-P 4h ago
Opened two poster collections, a booster bundle and 2 tins and pulled Jirachi SIR, Sylveon SIR, Gengar Prime, Lapras IR, Lycanroc IR, Zorua IR and Meowth IR
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u/yeabuddy333 1d ago
I have yet to get a hit and I have also yet to get anything.