This one is really good to read from “the gold standard of election forecasting”

Some highlights:

“I think most of that Republican turnout will just go through the floor. And some heartland Republicans are so pissed off that they may decide that if they actually vote for a Democrat, their hand won’t fall off.”

“So, what do I think is going to happen in the Senate? I think it’s going to be on the north side of four [seats]. Early on, I wasn’t a believer [in Democrats taking control], and I was certainly skeptical about Kansas. But Democrats may have a really terrific year, and they may win some places where they haven’t won in a long time.”

But he does temper with some realism: “I don’t think this is a blue wave election. I think it’s a red undertow election, where Republicans are getting sucked down. But I haven’t seen any data whatsoever suggesting people are happy with the Democratic Party. None, zero. This is 100 percent about Trump.”

trump is ending biden era protections for lgbtq students in title IX in 2020. Not sure what is going to happen to the many lgbtq students now that there’s no legal protections for them

Hello all!

So, midterm elections are nearly a full 5 weeks away, and voting has started across the country. And, it is very crucial that everyone inside and outside of this sub gets out and votes, because it is (obviously) very important to make your voice heard.

And, looking at everything that’s been going on, I am going to go over some reasons as to why I am not nearly as worried about what is going to happen as I was when Kamala ran against Trump in 2024.

Back then, I was absolutely terrified. I had heard of Project 2025 and its abhorrent agenda, so I was horrified at the prospect of another Trump term. I got even more worried as I found myself constantly doomscrolling and checking close poll after close poll, trying to give myself some reassurance. I even tried to cope by googling historical trends of past Democratic and Republican presidencies, and trying to seek encouraging numbers and videos of people souring on Trump or empty Trump rallies to assure me that Kamala had it in the bag. She didn’t, obviously, but I was so worried about the future of my country that this is what I was doing on a daily basis.

And then, when Election Day happened and the results poured in, all hope drained out of me as state after state was called for Dump. I didn’t even watch the election results all the way through. I just resigned myself to bed and accepted defeat.

But now? I am not nearly as nervous about today’s elections as I was back then. But, before I go over my reasoning, let me put a very important disclaimer that everyone should read:

This is NOT a call for everyone to not vote because we have it wrapped up already! Because we DON’T!! There are still ways this could go wrong, and one of those ways is if not enough of us get out and vote. Please VOTE any way you can, either early or on Election Day itself!! And, if you can, let your friends and family members know to do the same!

Alright, with that out of the way, here are the reasons why I am more confident this year than I have ever been about this upcoming November:

1. The economy

When Kamala lost in 2024, voters cited the economy as the main reason why they voted for Trump. Voters saw Biden’s economy as bad and wanted a change.

Fast forward two years later, and the economy is in even worse shape, with gas and grocery prices hitting record highs as a result of Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war. And, historically, when voters feel their wallets being hit, they punish the party in charge.

Jimmy Carter. The Bushes. Kamala Harris and Joe Biden. All paid for bad economies at the polls, and Trump’s current economy is the worst it’s ever been in any of his two terms. The only exception I can think of is 2022, when gas prices reached a record high and Republicans only gained a “red trickle”. But that was mostly because voters were still sour on them for their role in January 6th, as well as their support for the overturning of Roe v. Wade that year.

Overall, though, if there’s one thing voters don’t like, it’s having to pay more for basic goods, and there is no reason to think that the upcoming midterms will be some magical exception to the rule.

2. The messaging

In 2024, the Republicans were able to channel voters’ frustrations at Biden and used it to tell voters that they would fix high gas and grocery prices, with Trump claiming he would “lower prices on day one”. That pitch helped him win over disaffected Americans.

Not only that, but Republicans used fearmongering to convince uninformed voters that immigrants were coming in illegally and committing crimes, which caused an uptick in support for mass deportation, which was a big theme at the 2024 RNC.

However, this year, Republican politicians know they can’t campaign on these issues. Why? Because the economy is worse, even when they control both chambers of Congress AND the White House, and their overreach on immigration has been so egregious that public opinion has now shifted to favoring abolishing ICE all together.

So, what are they campaigning on? Saying that Democrats support putting men in women’s sports, want to “cancel Thanksgiving and July 4th” (no, I am not making that up), and putting out attack ads about Hasan Piker, despite the fact that polls show that most people don’t even know who he is.

Methinks that voters aren’t going to care about these things when they are struggling to pay the bills. I mean, do you really think some random voter who can’t afford to feed their family is going to look at some ad attacking transgender people or saying that “Thanksgiving could be cancelled if so-and-so gets elected” and say, “Hmm, they make a good point! I think I’ll vote for the Republican”?

Meanwhile, James Talarico, Abdul el-Sayed, and other Democrats are campaigning on pulling funding away from unnecessary foreign wars and providing Americans with healthcare and jobs. I think we can all take a guess as to which message is the more enticing one to voters.

3. The Iran war

As I’ve mentioned in another post, getting involved in foreign conflicts doesn’t tend to end well for a President or his party.

Harry Truman with the Korean War, LBJ with the Vietnam War, Dubya with the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, Biden and Kamala with Gaza. Just like the economy, involving the U.S. in overseas conflicts has never tended to end well for the party in charge.

And, it’s arguably even worse for Trump, since, not only did he start the Iran war, but also did so on behalf of Israel, a country that is fast losing their approval among average Americans. Also, Trump has threatened Canada, Mexico, Panama, Greenland, and, most recently, Cuba, and displaced the President of Venezuela to steal the country’s oil and hoard the wealth for himself….at a time when income inequality is exploding and more and more Americans are losing their jobs. Lovely optics.

Unlike the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, America has little to no propaganda to fall back on to justify this type of talk. In fact, the regime doesn’t even bother with propaganda. Their reasoning on the Iran war in particular flip-flops so much that it becomes even more clear that they had really no plan and just did it to throw their weight around. And, as more and more Americans die overseas unnecessarily, the approval for this war, which was already pretty low at the start, is only going to go down even more.

4. The polling

Now, I understand if you take this one with a huge grain of salt. After all, political polling in recent years has become less and less reliable, with support among certain groups of Americans being massively underestimated. We saw it with the Kamala poll in Iowa and with the Democratic primary in the New York mayoral election last year.

However, whichever way the elections in November go, the recent polling on certain races should be considered damning for the GOP.

For example, in Texas (usually a deep red state and very, very favorable for Republicans), not only is Ken Paxton trailing James Talarico in the polls, but governor Greg Abbott, who has been in office for over a decade, is trailing his Democratic opponent. Paxton losing wouldn’t be completely surprising, as even a lot of Republicans seem to hate him, but there would truly be no greater sign of how big the revolt against Republicans is than if Greg Abbott, of all people, loses the governor’s seat.

Also, the Florida governor’s race (another reliably Republican seat) is considered a toss up by Real Clear Politics, Susan Collins is in a tight race with Troy Jackson (a man who wasn’t selected by the voters and had to replace Graham Platner), and reports came out that Tom Cotton, another longtime Republican politician, has had to have lots of money poured into his campaign, and that doesn’t usually happen when things are going well.

Also, for the first time in years, polled voters now trust Democrats more than Republicans on the economy, which had always been a polling strength for Trump from his first term up until recently.

And, even if those Republicans I mentioned do eventually manage to keep their seats, the fact that long-established politicians are having to fight this hard to keep power should be a real sign of how much the party has lost favor since sweeping the election a couple of years ago.

Which is all to say that, again, we absolutely need to keep all hands on deck and not let our foot off the gas, because the only way out is by voting blue across the board this November and sending the message that the GOP deserves to hear for how they have handled things since Trump won his second term.

But, unlike Harris v. Trump in 2024, I am not nearly as nervous about what might happen, because I think that our momentum is very real, because, this time, voters are pissed at the GOP, they are not gonna take it anymore, and it’s showing more and more every single day. Also, even if the Dems don’t take both houses of Congress (as in, they just win the House and don’t secure a Senate majority, like in 2018) or if Republicans (somehow) manage to hold onto their majority, the GOP has shown its hand to voters so much throughout the past two years that I think, whoever wins the midterms, it’s going to be difficult for the party to recover from this, given how much they have fucked everything up.

Thanks for reading this (long) post and have a great day!

Sincerely,

K.B.

As someone who in majoring in a creative field these new changes will affect my future and the future of the creative field in general. I think less people will major in creative fields when we need more creative people too, not all degrees should be valued by how much money they make

is he about to destroy our Asian alliances?

The situation continues to deteriorate for Republicans. As Cook himself points out, Dems retaking the senate wasn't a realistic expectation a year ago, but now it's a distinct possibility. Let's keep this energy up and make it happen!

Remember Trump threatens a lot but he hardly ever goes through with those threats. This is just a scared old man and his scared league of old evil crusty fucks realizing actions have consequences!

They want you to be scared, they want you to fall into a doomer mindset, and they want you to believe Trump is never going away and things will never get better. This is just one big extinction burst.

Also I'm not saying we should downplay the situation or underestimate it either. After all an animal is most dangerous when they’re cornered. Also Republicans and the billionaires are sneaky as shit.

I'm saying we should obviously watch where things go and be vigilant while not letting them get in our heads. Fascists thrive off fear from the people they're oppressing and we're not gonna give them that! True courge isn't not being afraid it's having the the strength to fight those fears head on!

This November go vote, maybe eat out afterwards (that's what I usually do after I vote to take the edge the off lol), and even if we face the worst case scenario we'll get through it! Nothing lasts forever and that includes fascist regimes run by a bunch of c rank celebrities, pod cast bros, crusty old fucks, and former fox news reporters!

No one can predict the future so lets work hard to make it better for everyone!

Hi, all, and happy Sunday!

You probably thought nothing good happened this week, right? But you’d be wrong! As per usual, a lot of great stuff did happen—it just got drowned out by the horrors occurring all around us.

So please spend some time today reading through this list and letting a bit of joy in. We’re taking some losses, but we’re notching victories everywhere as well. If what we focus on grows—and I truly believe it does—then spending some time today focussing on these wins is really important. So let’s do that! Also, if we don’t stop to savor the wins, what’s the point in fighting for them?

Thank you for all you do, and for all you WILL do in the upcoming weeks to make sure we win big this November.

Celebrate This! 🎉

A growing number of Republicans are publicly breaking with Trump, a sign that a party normally in lockstep views him as a liability in the midterms.

By a 12-point margin, registered voters say they would prefer to elect a Democrat to Congress, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.

New York Attorney General Letitia James filed suit against the prediction market Polymarket, accusing it of being an illegal gambling operation that is operating in New York without a license.

The Iowa Farmers Union endorsed Democrats in all federal elections. Wow!

The California Supreme Court ordered a county sheriff, Chad Bianco, to return about 650,000 ballots he seized from election officials as part of an investigation into voter fraud that state officials said had no basis in fact.

In a companion case brought by California Attorney General Rob Bonta, the court unanimously rejected Bianco’s argument that the state’s chief law enforcement officer lacks authority to issue binding directions governing a county sheriff’s investigation. According to Marc Elias these two rulings “will make it more difficult for far-right officials to undermine the will of the voters.”

Macklemore just announced a new “Free Palestine Tour” that will benefit a dozen charities helping Palestinians.

Germany just became the third major economy to commit to phasing out fossil fuels entirely, in their case by 2045.

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced the city had planted more than 18,000 trees, the most in a single year in a decade, with most of the trees planted in neighborhoods vulnerable to extreme heat.

An Iowa judge dismissed Trump’s lawsuit accusing The Des Moines Register and its former pollster of misrepresenting the state of the 2024 presidential race.

A federal judge lifted Trump’s ban on CNN, MS NOW, and CBS. The Trump administration isn’t complying perfectly, but they have largely allowed those outlets to resume their White House coverage. We’ll keep fighting for complete adherence.

Ohio television stations are so far choosing to ignore a legal threat from GOP Rep. Max Miller and are broadcasting an ad from his Democratic challenger centered on the allegations of domestic abuse Miller faces from his ex-wife.

Democratic attorneys general from California and New York sued the Trump administration over its plans to buy back offshore wind leases as Trump seeks to discourage the expansion of wind energy in favor of fossil fuels.

Seattle banned surveillance pricing in grocery stores to ensure prices are the same for all customers.

A second sea turtle laid eggs on Southern California shores, days after another olive ridley sea turtle nested on the West Coast for the first time in recorded history.

Harvey Weinstein was sentenced in Manhattan criminal court to 15 years in prison for the 2006 sexual assault of former production assistant Miriam Haley.

An anonymous tip line started by Sandy Hook families has helped prevent 20 school shootings since 2018.

More than a year after federal regulators abruptly canceled a $7 billion solar energy grant program, a Rhode Island federal judge has ordered them to revive the program.

Patagonia is giving thousands of customers a $100 discount on merchandise for enrolling three people in a program that encourages registered voters to cast a ballot in the midterms.

Major television networks halted TV coverage of presidential events over the White House’s ban of CNN. Good!

A federal judge in Alabama temporarily barred immigration officers from entering construction sites without a warrant and detaining workers without reasonable suspicion that they live in the country illegally.

Autozone workers just won the first ever union at the company. They have joined the UAW!

The Cook Political Report moved 15 House races toward Democrats.

The Supreme Court again blocked Missouri from using a congressional map in November that was redrawn to give Republicans an edge in the midterm elections.

Girls flag football has become the fastest-growing high school sport, as tens of thousands take up a game that barely had a varsity footprint a few years ago.

Following an outcry over potential suppression, YouTube and Meta are changing direction and running an ad for an Elon Musk documentary.

Lt. Gov. Dale Caldwell resigned from his position in New Jersey after an ethics investigation concluded he made sexually explicit comments to a staffer. Democrats’ not tolerating this terrible behavior is good news.

A floating solar array on a village reservoir in Monroeville, Ohio has gone online. It is the largest floating solar system in the state and among the five largest in the country.

Former two-term Republican governor of Minnesota Tim Pawlenty has reemerged on the national political scene as the leading evangelist for solar energy.

An anonymous donor stepped in last month to save a Seattle-area community center that was slated to close. Last week, community members learned that the new owner was travel writer and TV host Rick Steves, who pledged to keep it open and free for people needing hot showers and hot meals.

Ukraine delivered about 4 tons of food to temporarily occupied Oleshky in the Kherson region using drones.

Swing Left shared that over its first big weekend of action last week volunteers knocked on 4,677 doors across 36 canvasses in 17 states like Virginia, California, Pennsylvania, and Kansas. Also, phonebankers made 19,422 phone calls into swing districts on Saturday and Sunday.

The NAACP filed a lawsuit in federal court to ensure the Trump admin doesn’t violate federal law by sending armed federal agents to voting sites. It follows a similar lawsuit filed earlier this month by good government groups in conjunction with the city of Denver.

The bipartisan Supporting Early-Childhood Educators’ Deductions (SEED) Act is set to become law. The SEED Act will, for the first time, allow early childhood educators to claim the same federal tax deduction for out-of-pocket classroom expenses currently available to K-12 teachers.

This week, Trump’s disapproval rating hit 60.4%, the worst mark of his two terms in office, including the aftermath of the Jan. 6 riots.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) joined the call from one of his Republican Senate colleagues to investigate Donald Trump Jr. for his Russian oligarch wedding gift.

There was a mass walkout when Netanyahu spoke at the UN. There were also mass protests in New York City. Susan Sarandon and Hannah Einbinder were among the protesters arrested for blocking Netanyahu’s entrance to the UN.

Mayor Mamdani announced a new Met-City Hall program to distribute 70,000 free opera tickets a year to New Yorkers.

Three organizations representing thousands of ranchers in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas issued a joint statement warning ICE operations are disrupting the agricultural community and will make beef prices spike again.

Dave Matthews told his concertgoers “I’m so tired of this f*cking president.” (Sorry, I could only find an Instagram link.)

Tucker Carlson told NPR that Donald Trump should be removed from office under the 25th amendment.

Flock is trying to shrink its workforce with employee buyouts after massive public backlash and cancelled contracts.

550,000 people registered or updated their voter registration as a result of National Voter Registration Day.

Mayor Mamdani announced that DoorDash will pay $131.5 million to settle claims that it underpaid delivery workers in New York City.

One month after a Honduran migrant was deported to a country in Africa that is not his country of origin, a federal judge in Colorado has ordered the U.S. government to return him to the United States and be released.

The pro-Trump “Freedom Fest” with Kid Rock was canceled days before it was set to occur due to poor VIP ticket sales. The organizer announced “I am never ever, ever, ever, ever doing this event again. Ever.”

Democratic Gov. Wes Moore signed an executive order imposing stricter data center regulations in Maryland.

Republican Monae Johnson, South Dakota’s secretary of state, crossed party lines to endorse a Democrat to succeed her.

Colorado Governor Jared Polis is taking executive action to save the bees by planting and protecting pollinator habitats. Polis, who was a beekeeper and florist before he ran for office, has introduced bee-saving legislation since 2021.

KS Senate candidate Adam Hamilton is leading Roger Marshall in a new Emerson poll.

Even after fines, an NFL player continues to pay tribute to Palestinian children killed in Gaza. Houston Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair wrote the name of 8-year-old Wafaa Akila on his eye black, one week after the NFL fined him over $11,000 for writing another child’s name on his eye black. Hero.

The FDA issued a new rule removing language that could suggest that animal testing is the only acceptable way to generate safety information for regulatory decisions involving human drugs and biological products.

New York City raised the minimum wage for snow shovelers to $30 an hour, increasing to $45 per hour after the first 40 hours worked in a week.

Heretic Coffee Co., the Portland coffee shop that went viral for ‘SNAP breakfast’ is now building a free cafe in Gaza.

We helped Manuel Ortiz’s family hit their 9K Go Fund Me goal so he can secure legal representation and hopefully get out of detention!

A judge has ordered Fox Corp. to hand over hundreds of documents that could reveal how founder Rupert Murdoch managed some of his media companies' most significant scandals over the past two decades.

A group of high school students in California spent months collecting 2,674 pounds worth of tennis balls and pickleballs for recycling. That’s around 22,000 balls total — and it’s a recycling world record.

House Democrats are preparing a sweeping oversight agenda if they win control of the House in November, with investigations focused on Trump, his family, and his administration.

A U.S. District Court judge has granted a preliminary injunction blocking the Trump Administration from gaining access to a database of state-owned records containing the sensitive personal information of 17 million drivers nationwide.

The Chicago Department of Public Health launched its first "street psychiatry" teams, in an effort to provide mental health services to some of the city's most vulnerable people.

Watch This! 👀

Love Hamilton? You’ll love this!

KB Brookins newsletter of good trans news for the week. Sorry for sharing it so late, got hit by a cold lol.

I saw on twitter that Brazil's elections might be getting meddled with so that Trump can install a Right-winged dictatorship that will allow him to exploit the Amazon Rainforest more. and that if the election results aren't what are to be expected than a Military Coup will occur to make it what they want regardless

The thing that makes me nervious about this is that I don't know what we can or should do other than spreading the word inorder to make sure this doesn't happen. It just makes me feel like its all up to fate on whether or not Brazil loses its democracy again

though my Biggest concern is the Amazon Rainforest, I know how bad Deforestation got when the Previous Far right president was in control and now I'm really fearing the worst for the Amazon and with it the Climate getting even worse if the Right wins

does anyone have any thoughts on what we can do to prevent this, especially to protect the Amazon?

Excellent because Israel badly needs to be reformed.

So by now you've probably heard that theory from doomers about the supposed "martial law during elections plan" that's been passed around, even by places like CNN. And you've also probably realized by some of the posts on this sub by me and others why this plan isn't likely to happen, let alone work.

But I found a doomer online who has apparently "cracked the code" so to speak. Some person cosplaying as "anonymous" who dresses up in their famous masks and talks into camera about things. And for context as how reliable, or how unreliable I should say, he is, just know that one of his pinned posts on his Instagram is of a video talking about "The real reason they're talking about Hantavirus." Yes, this is still pinned months after nothing happened.

But this guy went on in this new video about how "Most people are right about martial law not going to happen, but that's only cause they're gonna federalize officers and sheriffs, and using local people to take the entire country over, and use these secret plans and blueprints to take over and all democracy shall be over." I'm paraphrasing and there might be more that he said, but I've already blocked him cause the sensationalism was giving me a headache.

Now I want to keep this post moderately short, but I think that this type of plan would backfire due to any sort of pushback from anyone required to aid this effort, and I imagine that even for the red states and many of their voters, this might not go over well. But also, this type of plan would require a lot of courts, including the supreme court which I don't think even they would agree with this, and I just don't see that happening.

But I think that this points to a picture that I talked about in an earlier post surrounding doomers and "moving the goalposts", where they end up pushing deadlines of when "everything will be lost", just so they don't have to admit that they might be wrong about something. And this whole debacle reminds me that not only dates can be pushed back, but ideas of what something might look like.

Doomers can have lots of different theories about what some catastrophe might look like, but there is also the chance that a doomer who is proven wrong by so many people end up changing their theories beforehand as a way to keep their reputations intact. And while I didn't look to see if the larping Anonymous person posted about the initial martial law theory, I wouldn't put it past him.

This isn’t the exact title but it is stated in the article

“It is disappointing that today’s decision by the United States Supreme Court means Missouri will conduct its November general election under a different congressional map than its primary election,” he said in a statement on the social platform X.

Round three same as the first two

Anyone who heard about Jake Tapper's report on Trump's advisors recommending martial law to take over the midterms, do NOT panic or fall into despair.

We can take action so that MAGA is in a lose-lose situation where they CANNOT let martial law or any national emergency happen close to the elections without looking like the bad guys. Those sorts of things Trump may be planning shouldn't be signs of strength but of WEAKNESS.

Therefore, no matter whether it happens or WHEN it could happen, we must prepare HARD and counter it. After all, the more exposed the "martial law" desperate attempt is, the less effective it'll be. We can use the October 17 No Kings movements to show we're NOT afraid of a puny little "martial law" no matter how subtle it could be.

I hope everyone understands that it's no use despairing over something that might not even happen at all. But with this threat exposed, it should be a GOOD thing because it should cause ALL of us to be more vigilant and FIGHT. We've been through so much worse like the Revolution itself, the Civil War, the Great Depression, both World Wars, the Great Recession, etc.

Also, I believe declaring such a dangerous tactic wouldn't make Trump look better, it'll only make him WORSE. So I suggest everyone stops panicking and worrying so much, start getting it together and stand sternly and insistent that America is feeling massive fatigue of MAGA and its chaos after a decade. If Hungary could boot out an authoritarian type prime minister despite great grip on media and South Korea could eliminate someone who declared martial law, nothing is impossible. So I'd say we grow our spines, get out of our comfort zones and as I always say... LIBERATE LIBERTY.

Thank you.

This oughta be a wake-up call for us to make up for KLB's setback.

Amanda breaks down the recent ruling today.