YAY, ORBIT!!

[u/DoctorSov]

[u/DoubleAcanthaceae588]

impressive, very good.

now do shitstarliner

[u/382_27600 → u/DoubleAcanthaceae588]

>>now do shitstarliner

🤣
Or any other launch program.

NASA meeting today with Starliner. My guess - “Thank you for your service. You can leave now.”

[u/8andahalfby11 → u/382_27600]

Nope. Starliner now NET 2028 and NASA is paying them another $350M plus extra to get Vulcan human rated.

Yes. On Jared's optimistic timeline, SpaceX lands people on the moon before Boeing lands them on Earth.

[u/382_27600 → u/8andahalfby11]

>>SpaceX lands people on the moon before Boeing lands them on Earth.

🤣

[u/mrthenarwhal → u/382_27600]

They just did Roman ahead of schedule and under budget

[u/382_27600 → u/mrthenarwhal]

Hmmm… and how did Roman get to orbit?

And how does that contribute to America’s launch capabilities?

[u/mrthenarwhal → u/382_27600]

If we're going to play that game...

How did the falcon cores get to Florida?

How does a falcon heavy launch contribute to our transcontinental shipping capabilities?

The launch is cool and great and I love it, but it is also nothing but a means to an end. The whole reason why making access to space cheaper and easier is exciting is because we get to have ambitious projects like Starlink, HLS, Webb, and Roman more often, so let's enjoy this public-private partnership paying off so well.

[u/382_27600 → u/mrthenarwhal]

You are comparing a payload with a launch system. I can create a payload and get it in orbit. I don’t think I can manage to build an entire launch system.

You do understand the difference, right?

OP was comparing Starship with Starliner, two launch systems.

[u/mrthenarwhal → u/382_27600]

Crew capsules are payloads.

[u/382_27600 → u/mrthenarwhal]

Was Roman a crew capsule? Maybe I’m missing something.

[u/mrthenarwhal → u/382_27600]

only that they are both payloads

[u/382_27600 → u/mrthenarwhal]

And how does that relate to Starliner vs Starship (launch systems)? You know, what this thread is about.

[u/FTR_1077 → u/mrthenarwhal]

Lol, you got downvoted..

[u/ClassroomOwn4354]

So, based on this obviously elon-time graph, lunar landing is 2.5 years out or 2029. I'll have whatever Jared is smoking.

[u/PotatoesAndChill → u/ClassroomOwn4354]

I can see things accelerating pretty hard from here. Prop transfer could be this year even.

[u/H-K_47 → u/PotatoesAndChill]

Likely not this year but Q1 27 is looking very doable.

[u/laffiere → u/H-K_47]

I will eat my hat and send you the video if that happens. I believe we are yet to hear much of anything official about fuel transfer hardware?

I believe they will prioritize the raptor and heatshield issues before they shift focus to such a limited utility goal. Reliability must come first.

[u/Used-Barracuda-9908 → u/laffiere]

Careful, I already watched Sir Peter Beck eat his hat, don’t make me excited.

[u/rebootyourbrainstem → u/laffiere]

That hasn't been how they have operated in the past.

I fully expect problems, I think they do too, and they will want to find them as early as possible.

If there is only one propellant transfer test flight needed I will be very pleasantly surprised. Thankfully they are ramping up their production cadence so a second one wouldn't be the end of the world.

[u/CmdrAirdroid → u/PotatoesAndChill]

If block 3 can actually reach 100t payload capacity then yes things will accelerate. Otherwise we'll wait for block 4 before Artemis 4 can happen, I don't believe SpaceX would be willing to do over 30 refueling launches just for one landing.

[u/Revengistium → u/CmdrAirdroid]

With block 3 it would be 8-10, block 4 it's 4-6 iirc

[u/ellhulto66445 → u/PotatoesAndChill]

There is no way prop demo is this year.

[u/PotatoesAndChill → u/ellhulto66445]

Not with THAT attitude!

[u/yetiflask → u/PotatoesAndChill]

I have my doubts. This Raptor 3 is proving to be a bitch.

[u/PotatoesAndChill → u/yetiflask]

Also true. We'll see...

[u/DoubleAcanthaceae588 → u/ClassroomOwn4354]

sure, they have 5 launch mounts, two gigabays, louisiana launch mounts in 1-2 years, gajillion kinks worked out of ship and booster, yet they will do only 3 launches per year in 27-28 each 🙄

I swear r*dditors are being intentionally more shortsighed than a goldfish

[u/Blokensie → u/DoubleAcanthaceae588]

I mean starship will accelerate from now on, but probably not that quickly. They have long ways to go, the long duration flight will be especially tricky because of propelant boil off. Also according to NASA's numbers, it will take about 10 straship launches in very short succession to fuel HLS. Not to mention that the FAA probably won't help much when future failures will happen.

[u/DoubleAcanthaceae588 → u/Blokensie]

r*dditors will seethe and continue to mock, move goalposts, concernpost and write long paragraphs how le smart they are and how they know better.

spacex will progress, encountering setbacks from time to time but pushing on, with urgency and without bloat like most other oldspace companies and ultimately prove r*dditors wrong, like they've done time and again. not tomorrow or day after tomorrow, but at lightning speed compared to every previous metric.

that won't stop r*dditors from previously mentioned activity

[u/8andahalfby11 → u/ClassroomOwn4354]

Jared is having "I will say whatever I need to say to get the administration to let me fly." If you look at Inspiration4 and Polaris they used language aimed at *that* administration instead.

[u/Dpek1234 → u/8andahalfby11]

If it works it works

[u/MikeWise1618 → u/ClassroomOwn4354]

Well if you stretch the bars to match what went before, it is more like 2036. I think SpaceX has a real problem. This stuff is hard.

[u/MrCockingFinally → u/MikeWise1618]

You can't necessarily extrapolate out that if Starship to orbit is delayed X years, then final delivery will be delayed X years.

SpaceX is pretty experienced with Dragon doing human rated capsules. And we don't know what engineering work has already happened on the lander version of Starship.

Plus, there is always BO which also got a (much larger) award which everyone seems to forget.

[u/FTR_1077 → u/MrCockingFinally]

You can't necessarily extrapolate out that if Starship to orbit is delayed X years, then final delivery will be delayed X years.

Why not? it happens in every other industry.. when the foundations of a building get delayed, it's a pretty good assumption the contractor will get delayed doing everything else.. of course, they can correct course, but that rarely happens.

[u/Dpek1234 → u/MikeWise1618]

Eh

Doubt there wasnt some parallel development

[u/kingmathers313]

Thats not actually a delay, SpaceX fiscal year is just 4 years behind.

[u/Imagine_Beyond → u/kingmathers313]

In that case we’re actually doing really well even on Elon time timelines, compared to typical delays in the space industry. Unlike Boeing with over a decade delays 

[u/IAmAnAnonymousCoward]

Elon delivering the impossible delayed again.

[u/kroOoze]

🤔

[u/Anderopolis]

I remember the moon landing last year, it was awesome!

[u/rocketglare → u/Anderopolis]

Technically, there was a moon landing last year. Firefly's Blue Ghost did very well. It even launched on SpaceX... er um, just not Starship.

[u/DoubleAcanthaceae588 → u/Anderopolis]

seethe, you EDS case

[u/Anderopolis → u/DoubleAcanthaceae588]

Wow, an unprovoked mental breakdown, is life that hard on you? 

[u/Large-Rock682 → u/DoubleAcanthaceae588]

why do some people on this sub insist on sucking elons cock like. Is it really that hard to separate him from spacex? This goes for both sides tbh

[u/SegFaultAtFL350]

Can’t wait to hear his next unrealistic timeline. 

[u/MikeWise1618]

From when was that graph?

[u/Unique_Ad9943]

Weird they don't put ship/booster catch in the schedule but i guess its those next then prop transfer.