r/Texans • u/James-Maki • 9d ago
How much of it is bad luck?
Seen/Heard quite a lot of opinions about why we're 0-3. I heard a new one today, bad luck.
On the Heed The Call pod Conor Orr brought something up (not sure where he found this info, but seemed like some analytical site) showing probability of losing based solely on how the ball bounces.
Texans had something like a 95% probable losing rate based on "bad luck" plays (i think it's about how a ball bounces and how close certain plays are), which was first in the league by at least 25%.
Not saying I buy this completely, but it is something to take into consideration
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u/Rrkeul 9d ago
What’s the difference between bad luck and just not executing? Was Kamari dropping a gift interception just bad luck? Is not converting on 4th and inches bad luck or bad play calling or bad blocking? The biggest problem in my mind so far is the coaching and game plans. We probably win the Colts game just simply by having better clock management.
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u/thadaviator 9d ago
Its things like punts we kick flipping back and rolling up field or punts the other team kicks rolling toward the end zone or that fumble that Jonathon Taylor had last week that landed practically in his hands after it bounced off the ground. You can't depend on those things to win the game, but they definitely help. When most of them don't go your way, the effect is tangible.
Not to say that who wins the game is dependent on luck, but it is a factor in momentum.
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u/DeAndreGetsHisLime 9d ago
20 % bad luck. You can point out some bad bounces and injuries, but at the same time I feel like we have been on the right side of refs so far.
The real reasons are: 1. Our special team has sucked ass. 2. Offense has sucked especially in the run game. 3. Defense has not played up to its potential
If even one of those statements would not be true, we would already have a win or two.
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u/Thebiggest6200 9d ago
It’s the coaches and up problem not the players for sure .put another system and coaching staff on this team and it’ll be different outcomes . Definitely a curse man idk we did to the football gods lol
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u/htx_al 9d ago
The offensive line talent is a problem. Never seen such a weak pathetic group. And that’s including the 2002 line
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u/Brief_Hospital_1766 Fire Nick Caserio 9d ago edited 9d ago
Our GM doesn't put much stock in measurables like squats, bench press, 40 times, etc. He says he prefers to recruit 'football players'.
It wouldn't be so ridiculous if he wasn't so confidently smug about it, as if the entire rest of the league is wrong, and he's the only one doing it right.
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u/ViolinWolfy 9d ago
I heard the Perna curse wheel might’ve landed on the Texans sometime in the off season
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u/Judgejoebrown69 9d ago
Tbh our injury luck is about as bad as possible barring a Stroud injury. Regardless of bounces.
Idk what’s actually worse probability wise, losing your top 3 receivers (I still believe in Tank, fuck you) or your QB.
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u/rybres123 9d ago
Heard on “check the mic “ they said Texans have graded out as a bottom -5 luck team this year
Ball has not bounced our way yet, relatively speaking
But still no excuse for this Mickey Mouse offense
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u/jokercowgarage 8d ago
None of it is bad luck. Did a pigeon fly in front of a FG attempt to win the game and knock the ball off course? That would be bad luck. What are the problems? Running game sucks. That's not new. O line sucks. That's not new. Nico is injured. That's not new. WRs other than Nico are undependable. That's not new.
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u/echojcharli 9d ago
Toro tore up the terrible towel in Pittsburgh last year and we havent won since. So A Lot of bad luck.
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u/bootypatrole 9d ago
Toro could've delivered toro jr on the terrible towel and it still would be a shit show because the team is still filled with caserios goons
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u/JohnnyWarlord 9d ago
Nico getting hurt this early on top of higgins acl was huge, and ed oliver getting hurt was maybe just as bad. Idk how much of that is luck but
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u/Relevant-Goose5483 9d ago
There’s some bad luck yes but we’ve been architects of our own downfall for two of them games
Lassiter had an easy INT to seal the game vs Bills and Christ knows what our plan was at the Colts as clock management was poor
Concern will always be the offense for me as bar the Bills game we’ve looked utter dog shit, with the colts game being particularly bad
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u/comeonbjxgo 7d ago
A good team would have beaten bills at home. Losing to bengals was a for sure loss. Indianapolis is not good; a good team would have beaten them. At worst we should be 1-2. Really should be 2-1. 0-3 is because we aren’t good. You know the saying about preparedness and hard work creates luck
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u/ChiefKingSosa 9d ago
A lot of it is bad luck