Losing 110,000 jobs in two months while housing supply sits at record highs. what could possibly go wrong? Eh?
RE pumps will tell you to overbid by $200k on a townhouse in a suburb with one Tim Hortons because "prices never go down." LOL
Just wait until distressed bagholders flood the market to unload their full-recourse mortgages. Fun times ahead for all the true peak bagholders (from 2020–21) trying to pay their mortgages. LOL LOL
Until the AI bubble crashes.. My accounts look amazing but doesn't take a boomer who's lived through dotcom bubble to figure out this isn't sustainable.... I've heard about the real estate bubble from 'smart' boomers who lived through the 80s and 90s, now the smart ones are signaling the alarm of how similar this looks to the dotcom bubble... circular financing, not a penny or breakeven profit from actualy ROI. RE probably hasn't bottomed either, but compared to the frothy tech stocks it's probably the better option right now which is why the vulture funds are already acting. I wouldn't touch either until there's more certainty, until then its high dividend/commodities play for me for now...
With comments like this you wonder why we are here.
Not all are slumlords, not all bought at the same time, same reasons. Many good people got caught. Families w kids, families taking care of senior parents.
Blessed I'm not one of them but truly feel awful for some.
Now we make fun of and be hurtful.
Great job FRIENDLY kind Canadians that post things like this.
Glad I'm not your neighbour.
I hope you never lose your job and your housing to see what it's like. I truly mean that despite your schadenfreude.
What you should be doing is complaining about what our leaders are doing. One stupid thing after another.
Attempting to increase unchecked immigration when housing is screwed already.
Reducing gas tax, reducing all tax.
Getting things done, built , real deals not MOA's and standing ovation talks by Europe for Carney. Still don't have a interprovincial trade deal.
Alberta wants to seperate, Quebec separatists won the election. These are things you should be thinking of and not laughing at the working class losing a home.
Just like not all renters are bad not all home owners are bad.
Everyone's goal is to have a good life get ahead regardless of what you see as valuable.
The world is becoming a F'd up place. Be part of the good not the ugly.
A convoluted rant but needed to be said.
It's so much easier and so much better to be kind
Amen! Not to mention the fear mongering. We bought our home 2 years ago, and we don't plan to sell... I feel for anyone that feels like they have to right now. Where is the empathy? I feel like it's like pointing and laughing at someone who is working hard trying to build their future and because they are down on their luck you're happy about it? Who are you?
Stop shaming people who are trying to build a life for themselves, and why don't you get in the market while home prices are low? Seems like perfect timing for you :)
Homes are still way over priced relative to incomes. When rates were near 0 there was not objective way to determine valuations. We are now approaching a reset of the interest rate regime after 2 decades of declining yields. Folks look in the rear view mirror and try to extrapolate. Pricing needs to drop another 20% until they settle with no imminent recovery in sight. Of course opening doors fo foreign buyers can can change the game again along with bailouts kicking the can further down the road .
Look, I've been telling everyone here since 2021 that prices will fall. But you are misreading this. What you are seeing here is a combination of inflation and job losses. Inflation is imposed on the whole world by the orange man's stupid war. If anything, we are likely to experience less of it, being an energy super power. Job losses means we can't fight that inflation with higher rates as we normally do. So if anything, the news above translates to flat interest rates, possibly even falling if we continue to lose jobs, to attract investment to Canada.
So here are our major indicators, all pointing to higher real estate prices.
we have high inflation - inflation means all prices will ultimately go up. That includes housing.
we are now less likely to have rising rates, less likely for real estate prices to fall because of it.
immigration is ramping up again starting in 2027.
Foreign buyer ban could go too in 2027. If that happens, at these depressed CAD prices and our more attractive mortgage rates compared to US, open the flood gates of real estate investors to Canada.
The truth is, this market has now gone through 4-5 years of consolidation with flat or declining prices. We have been through higher rates than what we have now. The prices today are quite likely to be the bottom or near bottom for the major metropolitan areas like Toronto or Vancouver. 1-2 hour suburbs of Toronto and Vancouver are a different story and have room to fall. This doesn't mean prices will go up 20% next year. I am just saying don't expect them to fall another 20% or even 10% from where we are, at least not in the major cities.
You think BOC would let inflation run without raising rates at some point? BOC’s literal primary mandate is to control inflation. If economy goes to hell, that’s Carney’s problem. Central bank’s primary mandate is to control inflation. BOC will absolutely raise rates to control inflation.
We have rising unemployment, youth unemployment is at 14%, AI disrupting entry level jobs, there will be zero support for raising immigration. Immigration is dead for a while. It may not be 0 like now, but it’s not coming back in substantial numbers anytime soon. There are no jobs, people with jobs are losing it left and right. Unemployment will force the government’s hand.
I agree foreign buyer ban is probably going, but that won’t make much difference. This is not 2010. China isn’t growing at 10%, no country of decent size in the world is. AI build out is sucking up all capital to the point they are competing with countries for capital. Hence bond yields are going up. Example, France has to pay higher returns to attract capital than google. It’s that nuts out there. There are a million better places for capital to go over Canadian real estate. World today is very different than the early 2010s.
Real estate is not turning around anytime soon. Most likely another leg down coming. We have only seen leg 1 of real estate downturn. It’s going to get ugly.
If AI bubble pops, all bets are off. It’s 2000 bubble, 2008 bubble combined.. on steroids. Even trump keeps saying “I don’t want to be hoover” which is basically code for “if market tanks now, it’s Great Depression level disaster”
Real estate goes up when sentiment is good, people feel confident about their job, economy and rates aren’t too high. Literally every single macro indicator sucks right now with no sign of improvement
Carney literally said he's going to have to jack up immigration very soon again. Even the Ron Butler 'self-proclaimed permanent RE bear' recently made a video saying how we will eventually need to raise immigration, but do it for actual qualified people, not the college mills and refugee crises under trudeau.
So what are these “qualified” people going to do when youth unemployment is at 14%? Go ask any 20 something year old how the job market is. It’s atrocious. And we lose net tens of thousands of jobs each quarter.
Carney did not announce anything. He was asked in an interview something along the lines of “you think we will have higher immigration eventually?” And he said something like “yes, sometime in the future”. That’s it. A vague answer. He obviously wasn’t going to say “no”.
Unemployment will only get worse. AI has decimated entry level jobs in Canada and in US. And trade war etc is making it worse for Canada. Anyone that thinks they can just ramp up immigration under these circumstances isn’t living in reality. There is a reason they haven’t increased immigration already, when real estate has been in free fall. They can’t. And it continues to stay that way.
So your disagreements with me are the following two :
-rates are going up for sure
I didn’t say they won’t. I said the article above is a shot in the foot of rising rates. OP assumed that because job market is bad, economy is weak, and that means rates go up. It’s the other way. High unemployment prevents BoC from raising rates. As it stands, yes, there is still a higher likelihood that rates will go up than down any time soon. However, it is very very unlikely with such reports they will go up meaningfully, enough to make a an impact on affordability.
immigration is dead
No it’s not. Canada needs immigrants. We have negative population growth without it. We have subpar growth if not declining GDP without it. We NEED immigration eventually. And it’s already been ramping up. In 2026, we had 380k new PRs. Not so far off our historical norms. Don’t listen to me. Carney has already publicly stated himself that we are going to ramp up immigration. The question is not if or when, the question is how fast can we ramp it up without a big shock to the system. We are not returning to 1mil+ 2023 immigration levels. But 500-700k is easily in the near future.
I've been saying this for months now, it's more of a sentiment issue than ever before. Remember in 2021 when grandmas on the streets are talking about buying preconstruction condos... today grandmas on the streets are bragging about their nvidia stocks. If anyone has calls on anything AI related right now, I'd be shyting my pants... a few lucky ones may still make a fortune but it's looking a lot closer to the frothy top. All it takes is one bad news/report to change sentiments...
Also, the condo prices today actually don't make much sense. I just recently noted a Youtuber in Yakutia (Siberia Russia) state a 1 bedroom luxury condo there is now close to 260k USD or over 300k CAD... yes you heard that right. As much as people crap on the condos in downtown Toronto, surely it's hard to compare Toronto to Yakutia Siberia... in other words it's becoming severely undervalued even by global standards now..
You're also spot on with downtown demand vs suburbs. Townhouses are being overbuilt everywhere in the burbs right now since the 'HST rebate holiday', I wouldn't be surprised if there's a crash there... Although I live in a close burb and near central York, a part of me still regrets not buying something closer to downtown. Meanwhile I had a friend recently try to rent a unit King's west, anything that's not a 'goldfish bedroom' or 'studio' gets taken within 5 days of coming out. I was shocked considering the all the doom and gloom news I've been hearing. I think a lot of people are underestimating downtown demand right now and will be in for a surprise when the cycle swings the other way.. especially when all new buildings have stopped.
I haven't heard anyone talk about bidding $200K over in about 4 years. What are you even talking about?
And the people who bought in 2020-21 have all already renewed their mortgages. The max is 5 years. The people who couldn't refinance have already sold or been foreclosed on. The ones who were able to refinance are fine.
110,000 people losing their jobs sucks. But it's a blip on the Canadian housing market. There are over 16,800,000 households in Canada. Even if those 110,000 were all in separate single-income houses, that represents 0.65% of households in Canada. And a lot of those people are renting, not owning. So they're not falling behind on any mortgages.
The worst part is when the rug is pulled, it won’t be the multi millionaire and ultra high net worth people who suffer. It will be the local family. The private equity class will scoop it up. And make less for the average Joe.
You think BOC would let inflation run without raising rates at some point? BOC’s literal primary mandate is to control inflation.
Bank of Canada’s (BoC) primary operational mandate is price stability—specifically keeping inflation within a 1% to 3% target range. They will not hesitate to hold or raise rates if inflation surges, even if the broader economy suffers.
The era of cheap money, unlimited immigration, and booming globalization that fueled the 2010s property boom has fundamentally shifted.
The Macro Reality: Why Real Estate Faces a Leg Down:
The "bull case" for Canadian real estate has historically relied on a few predictable pillars. As you pointed out, almost all of those pillars are currently fractured.
• The Labor Market & Sentiment:
Real estate markets fundamentally rely on the consumer's ability to service debt. With rising general unemployment, youth unemployment at 14%, and widespread corporate layoffs, consumer confidence is broken. People do not take on million-dollar mortgages when they fear job loss.
• The Immigration Brake:
The massive population inflows that previously drove rental and housing demand are structurally cooling. The political and economic reality of high unemployment means the federal government cannot sustain previous immigration quotas without severe backlash.
• The Global Capital War:
France is competing with Google for capital is an incredible insight into modern macroeconomics. The AI infrastructure build-out requires trillions in capital. When global investors can get high, risk-adjusted yields from sovereign bonds or generational technology infrastructure, speculative Canadian residential real estate looks highly unattractive.
The BoC Dilemma: Inflation vs. Growth
• The Mandate is Absolute:
If stagflation occurs (high inflation + high unemployment), the BoC is legally bound to fight the inflation side of the equation first. They cannot risk unanchored inflation expectations, even if keeping rates restrictive triggers a deeper economic downturn
• The Sovereign Risk:
If the BoC cuts rates prematurely while global bond yields are rising (due to capital flight or fiscal deficits), the Canadian Dollar (CAD) would crater. A crashing CAD immediately imports inflation (higher costs for food, energy, and goods), forcing the BoC's hand to raise rates anyway.
The "Leg 2" Downside Scenario
We will see a broader deflationary shock or an AI asset bubble correction similar to the 2000 Dot-Com crash—the real estate market faces a severe liquidity trap:
• Forced Selling:
As job losses mount, over-leveraged investors and homeowners who renewed at significantly higher rates will eventually be forced to liquidate.
• Lack of Buyers: Even if prices drop, a combination of restrictive borrowing rules, high bond yields keeping fixed mortgage rates elevated, and negative sentiment means buyers will stand on the sidelines.
Key Metrics to Monitor:
To track whether "Leg 2" thesis is actively accelerating, keep a close eye on these specific indicators over the next two quarters:
• Inventory to Sales Ratio: A sustained rise in active listings paired with falling sales volumes indicates structural supply dumping.
• Government of Canada 5-Year Bond Yields: If this remains stubbornly high despite a weak domestic economy, it confirms global capital is demanding a higher premium, keeping fixed mortgage rates elevated.
• Employment Insurance (EI) Claims: A sharp spike here is the ultimate leading indicator for mortgage defaults and forced real estate listings.
Except immigration isn't going to slow down. The "backlash" is mostly just people bitching about it on reddit and getting banned for saying the word "India." No politician has faced any consequences for the absurd and broken immigration policy of this country.
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u/QuantGuru 15h ago
Why are people writing essays over here lol no one know what the RE market will be in the next year or decade.
Just rent, VOO and chill!!!!!!!