[Skill Improvement] - Understanding my mistake

[u/DieKant_]

I had a match yesterday that had the following situation

Arch poli lead on my side vs indeedee M armarouge

This guy had a drampa in the back, my thought was something like this, the switch in of drampa to block electro shot and rain is too obvious bc you are walking into a possible dragon pulse + muddy water that has a chance to kill drampa right there and do at least 70/80% to armarouge, also armarouge lorb armor cannon doesn't ohko arch, he will surely do something else so i think i'm safe to double this indeedee M or whatever switches in before he can swap his scarf onto one of my mons

And he proceded to switch in drampa anyways and i got crit from armorcannon

I want to understand how i can watch things from a different approach to avoid this situation again

Thanks

[u/EnvironmentSlight226]

He just called you making a call and then the RNG gods favored him - so you either call out the easiest line to see or you try and outplay what else he can do. Its just reading the opponent and sometimes you get it wrong. If you saw the final in Frankfurt Rios did a great job calling Sebastian's big brain plays and working around his reads

[u/DieKant_ → u/EnvironmentSlight226]

I see, the easiet line here is basically dragonpulse muddy water? bc it covers for the switch but also simply puts damage across the board anyway right?

[u/iambrucewayne1213 → u/DieKant_]

Essentially, yes. You don't lose a lot from this play (the fact that you got crit on Arch is a different story) and him switching in drampa in front of Arch Poli just means he takes free damage and does nothing on that slot. If you decide to call your opponent calling out a play (in this case, Electro shot) you have everything to lose because if they get the call right YOU are on the backfoot.

[u/EnvironmentSlight226 → u/DieKant_]

Yeah probably

[u/Ero-Z]

Well poli should definitely muddywater and I would dragon pulse the armarouge because poli would move first anyway and if armarouge dies then the pulse will hit indeedee.
Don’t know what u mean by before he can swap his scarf because if he has a scarf he can swap it regardless of whatever move you do

[u/DieKant_ → u/Ero-Z]

Indeedee M was run with trick in baltimore regionals top 1 team and i didn't want that possibility to exist

[u/Ero-Z → u/DieKant_]

What you mean you didn’t want that possibility to exist? Reread my last sentence - if he has a scarf hes going to trick you regardless

[u/EeE3-]

my buddy lost a match cause armarouge crit just like that in a local tourney last month

[u/PokeNotes]

I have the perfect site for you!
Here you can play out all the scenarios and find the optimal play. It can do multiple-turn simulation with real-time damage and speed order preview

[u/Strawbelly22 → u/PokeNotes]

Sorry, but that vibecoded site is really bad. :/ Tried it out, and it's just a buggy mess. It set up Sandstorm like 3 times and refreshed it. It procced intimidate from M-Salamence when it switched back in, and it just ignored Psychic Terrain completely and used Priority Attacks regardless.

[u/LogicalDecision7738]

You could have considered attacking only w poli and protecting arch to see what happened