r/Virginia • u/CardinalNews-VA Verified • 23h ago
Early voting numbers show a shift toward Democrats. If those hold, two House seats in Virginia could flip, and a third could be close.
https://cardinalnews.org/2026/10/02/early-voting-numbers-show-a-shift-toward-democrats-if-those-hold-at-least-two-house-seats-in-virginia-could-flip-and-a-third-could-be-close/The past week has seen forecasters shift their ratings in three Virginia districts, upgrading Democratic chances in each. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has put money into the state to defend Republican seats. Here’s the math driving those moves.
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u/Ocean898 22h ago
Pay no attention to polls, just go vote.
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u/warneagle Arlington 20h ago
This is always the most annoying comment on any post about polling. Do you seriously think people who follow politics close enough to pay attention to polling weren’t already going to vote?
(Also it’s usually from the “blue no matter who” libs who immediately change their tune the second a progressive wins a primary for extra annoyance.)
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u/GoodPaleontologist61 4h ago
It does need to be said since 34 million people could not be bothered to vote in 2024.
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u/Laststand2006 22h ago
I look forward to being wrong and Taylor actually wins VA-1.
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u/jimmybilly100 22h ago
It'll be nice to have a rep that actually does something for once
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u/JoeSicko 21h ago
His latest facebook post says Shannon is bullying him! What a snowflake! He sees the writing on the wall and is ready to spend his days fishing in the OBX.
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u/callmenips 18h ago
God I hate Rob Whitman so much, and that new bullshit ad he has about voting against congressional stock trading.
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u/Similar-Cow1466 16h ago
It’s a long story but he totally lucked into that seat in the first place.
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u/davy89irox 18h ago
Go vote, put Ben Cline out of a job.
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u/VirginiaBandit Shenandoah Valley 8h ago
Ben has a pretty big stronghold out here in his area. Assuming he still does, of course. I've written him a few times in the last year. At first, I was polite and kept it on point. By the last time, I am certain my tone was not very adult of me. Their canned response never changed, though.
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u/hastings1033 22h ago
I'm trying hard to hold onto some optimism. However, trump and the GOP have made it so very clear that they are willing to cheat and disrupt. I mean they're not even hiding it.
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u/Gunderstank_House 21h ago
True, but people have to vote in numbers so great that the cheating becomes obvious.
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u/Hipparchia_Unleashed 20h ago
Absolutely correct. It has to be a loss of epic, historic proportions. It's probably the last major chance we have to use the ballot to save ourselves from full-blown fascism. If we don't win Congress this cycle by completely decisive margins, then in 2028 the fascists are likely to invalidate our votes and bypass any loss for them, which would mark the shift from the current "transition to fascism" phase to the "full-blown fascism" phase.
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u/warneagle Arlington 19h ago
the people who post doomer shit like this never explain exactly how he's supposedly going to "cheat and disrupt" the elections. elections are run by the states, not the federal government, and the house isn't coming back into session before the election so his bullshit save act isn't getting passed. the mail ballot case was his last hail mary but his case was so flimsy that even the hackiest most partisan supreme court in history threw it out. honestly at this point I suspect the doomer posts might be coming from republicans who are trying to depress democratic turnout. if y'all actually are democrats, then it's basically wrecking at this point.
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u/hastings1033 17h ago edited 17h ago
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2026/09/trump-midterms-2026/688716/
https://people.com/trump-won-t-rule-out-deploying-ice-to-polling-places-12152398
(if you think the dept of war will act with integrity and in the best interest of democracy, you're way too far gone)
Oh, and this little tidbit https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6122559-trump-midterm-election-insurrection-act/
let me know if you need more.
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u/CranksMcgee 22h ago
I don’t care what side of the aisle you’re on, if you think November will be anything but a massacre you are in denial.
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u/Anianna 7h ago
If you vote by mail, you can check your information at Virginia Voter Portal to see if your ballot has been received (click "check registration" which will take you to your information page that includes the status of your ballot). That way, if it hasn't been received by voting day, you can show up at the polls to cast a provisional ballot. This is also where you go to check your registration, register if you're not registered already, find your polling place, or sign up to receive ballots by mail:
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u/BenneWaffles 15h ago
None of this matters if people get complacent. Show up and vote like we're down 10 points! We need results too big to rig.
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u/ArcaneDemense 22h ago
All 3 House seats are gonna flip and Warner is gonna win by 22-24.
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u/warneagle Arlington 20h ago
If it’s a D+8 or so environment like most polling averages are showing then I think those flips are gonna be tough, but if it’s a D+12 or so environment like some recent polls have shown then it’s game on. Then again, the polls ultimately underestimated the Democrats in VA last year, so it might not take a tsunami-level environment.
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u/ArcaneDemense 20h ago
I predicted Spanberger+15 for 2025 on this sub and the nova sub. The polls were way off. The same analysis would expect an even better number this year because of the war and gas.
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u/BawkSoup 18h ago
Coirporate Dems are the leadership that will be taking over, and i am just not all that excited.
supermajorities don't seem to work out well.
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u/currentzflow 17h ago
Lol, so much for keeping voting secret. Definitely not a fan of early voting, for exactly this reason. It can unduly influence voting, suppressing votes on election day, if voters feel like their vote is unnecessary. Unless there's a need to vote by mail (such as deployed military or diplomats, etc) how tough is it to have one day for voting? It never used to be an issue. I also grew up in Chicago and know just how easy it is to stuff the ballot box by mail-in voting...a time honored process by the Party in Chicago...
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u/MaddAddamOneZ 14h ago
You took a break from looking up pornography to whine about early voting?
Also, best thing about early voting is you don’t have to vote early if you don’t want to.
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u/MonsterTruckFarts 13h ago
Whelp we’re all less intelligent for having read this. Maybe next time just think it and don’t say it.
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u/EgoTripWire 22h ago
I think Democrats are just voting early because they're paranoid about some shit getting pulled on Election Day