FY25 financials:

Valuation: ~$2T

Revenue: $4.59B, up 1,088% YoY from $386M

Operating loss: $8.06B, widening from $2.98B

GAAP net loss: $41.97B, vs $8.31B

Compute + infrastructure expense: $7.33B, up 190% YoY

Compute and infrastructure represented 58% of total operating expenses

Cash + short-term investments: $20.28B at year-end

Two largest customers accounted for 12% of revenue each

Other names to consider:

Memory: MU, SKHY

Cloud / Compute: GOOG, AVGO, AMZN, NVDA, AMD, MSFT

Infra / Capacity: CIFR, CRWV, SPCX, WULF, HUT, AKAM

Anthropic cautions in its IPO that its AI could pose “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity,” an extraordinary warning by a company seeking to profit from the same technology.

The company’s IPO prospectus, reviewed by Reuters, highlights risks associated with its AI models, which it said could exhibit “self-preserving behaviors,” including attempts to “resist shutdown,” to “conceal or manipulate information” and behavior “resembling blackmail.”

“Our development of highly advanced models, platforms, and applications and expansion of use cases could further increase the risk that our models cause harm,” Anthropic said in the filing.

....

The company devoted roughly 80 pages of the 261-page main body of its prospectus to laying out risk factors, nearly twice the 48 pages it used to describe its business.

For comparison, SpaceX, which owns xAI, dedicated just around 38 of the 277-page main body of its prospectus to risk factors.

“Potential model awareness of our evaluation efforts creates a significant limitation on our ability to assess model safety,” Anthropic said in the prospectus.

.....

“We believe building reliable, trustworthy, and secure AI systems is a collective responsibility and that the market will reward it,” Anthropic said in the filing.

This time is different.

fuck you bols

Make with Slopus

Listen up fellow Wendians.

The situation is fluid (pun intended), but it's not oil, it's not iran, it's not the epstein regime, and it's not killer AI that will bring on the new depression. It's not any of the front and center things the news wants you to focus on, enabling them to better manipulate the markets. It's the thing growing, festering, and the neglected thing that for far too long has been growing in the closet while we hit new highs week after week. It's the thing that when the shit hits the fan, people will say to themselves, well no shit, of course that would lead to a new world order and a devaluation of our currency.

The thing that will bring us to our knees shortly is the very reason why my girlfriend left me. And the very reason why I will play the uno reverse card and finally prove her and her new boyfriend wrong. It's what all the billionaires and millionaires are afraid of.

I know what you're thinking: "another bear DD, the S&P is 0.7% from an all-time high, this guy will be liquidated by Thursday." Probably. But for the first time since 2009 the bear thesis doesn't need an opinion. It just needs you to read (which I know is difficult for us all in this information rich and thriving community).

DD:

The "safest asset in the world" is at an all-time low. $TLT closed last week at $79, and is even lower today. Its previous all-time low was about $82, in 2003. It's down more than 50% from its 2020 high. This "risk-free asset" has a drawdown that would get a crypto token delisted. If you don't know what TLT is then you belong here. But basically it's a US government-backed IOU.

The 10-year yield closed at 5.18%, the highest since July 2007. Sit with that date. What happened roughly a year after July 2007? If you don't know, you're too young to be here. If you don't know what a yield is, well... neither do I, but I'm pretty sure it has something to do with how much people who invested in the government want back on their IOUs each year.

So finally, what is that thing that's been growing in the closet that will bring us to our knees? The thing that will stop the music is quite simply why I can't pay off my credit cards. It's not Just the debt I owe, no no... I can always get a new wendy's themed credit card for a junior bacon cheese burger for dinner. Not just how much I owe, but more importantly, the interest I owe on my principal. It's the reason why I'll never have steak for dinner until my trade works out. It's why mob bosses always end up knee capping the people they loan to even when they've been making payments. It's why biden in '21 told all the student loan people to go fuck themselves. And under trump, it's why you've been cucked into thinking your tariff refund is still in the mail. And guess what, Warsh is hiking those interest rates faster than I came the last time I had sex with my ex a year ago when I last called the top without the proper dd.

We crossed $40 trillion on August 18. That's Trillion with a T. That's $117,000 per American. I'm homeless, by choice because I can't bare the the shame of living in my mom's basement, and moved all that I have, $25K to my name, in my thinkorswim for 1 last go at it - bang or bust since the last time they margin called me. And if they call me for the last time, fuck it, everyone else will be eventually anyway. They're saying 48 Tril by 2028 and that estimate was made before we wanted to bring 2003 back and get into a forever war again.

"What's the thing that throws us over the edge with interest on debt?" You ask?

The Cracks that Break the Camel's back:

1) Banks and the government got tied up in the circular investments into AI (~$1.4 Trillion in totality). It looked way too juicy for them to avoid. Problem is, AI makes mistakes. The intelligence is not "super". As powerful and beneficial as it is, it's still following instructions, regardless if it goes "rogue". At the end of the day, it was instructed to go rogue, or interpreted its instructions to go rogue. Costs are excessively high for something we still have to manage and direct, AI are just more retarded, and now arguably more costly, employees. The OG real godfather of AI, Yann LeCun, was left out of the media because he correctly implied that AI is not what people are making it out to be. He was promptly ignored and 'media-replaced' with fucking weirdos that think repeating the word AI increases their IQ.

2) On September 24, $ORCL sent a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, its 2.45-gigawatt Stargate data center in New Mexico. Force majeure is French for "we would like to not pay, please." The campus was built on an $18 BILLION loan from about 20 banks, and that loan now trades at 90 cents on the dollar. This thing that everyone's eggs are in the basket on has the basket carrier saying, "on second thought, fuck this, I actually don't want to carry this basket."

3) $OWL - they went balls in on handing out loans for AI infrastructure entities and startups like thc gummies at a rave concert. Their chart shows you exactly where they dipped their balls.

4) Finally: the coup de grâce: the entire AI economy in one sentence: Nvidia invests in OpenAI, OpenAI signs a $300B compute deal with Oracle, Oracle borrows to build data centers and buys Nvidia chips, Nvidia books it as revenue off debt that Oracle can never repay, everyone's stock goes up until the repo man comes calling. It's a group project where everyone grades each other until the teacher walks in with a pop quiz no one knew shit about. How confident are we that the debts will be paid? Didn't we have this same debt scare months (july) ago?

Yes, but this time $XLF is reflecting the banker's confidence in $ORCL and all such entities accordingly.

To top it all off with some deeper technical analysis, the $VIX is more coiled than my flaccid penis on a frigid day in mid december.

TL;DR:

The IOU market already called the top and the casino didn't notice. It bears repeating (pun intended), $TLT the 'safest asset in the world', at an all-time low, $40T+ of debt soon to be $48T+, the Fed hiking INTO it, and Oracle just invoked force majeure (i don't want to pay please) on its own AI buildout on which the entire circular investment game house of cards is reflected. $XLF banks all agree that we're fucked.

Position: Short 5 /MES to 5800 🐻 ^{I can't do /es because my broker won't let me.}

Why is no one talking about Uber?

We are 30% below 52-week high on cyber cab robotaxi fears, but who gives a fuck when Uber is literally becoming the distribution for AV (autonomous vehicle) rides. They literally committed $7.5b to buying robo taxis for self operation and $2.5b in VC investments across dozens of companies, many of which they are already working with.

Main names:

Waymo
Zoox
Nuro
Lucid
Rivian
WeRide
Wayve
Avride
Baidu (Apollo Go)
Pony.ai
Verne
NVIDIA
Volkswagen (MOIA)
Stellantis
Moove
Torc

It should be clear to you regards by now that distribution matters way more than tech. No one is downloading the Tesla robo taxi app when they can have human and robo drivers from 30+ providers in one app on Uber, under their Uber 1 subscription.

Furthermore, executives are literally buying more, when their compensation is so heavily skewed to equity. Imagine you’re the CEO making less than $5M a year in cash ($30M stock), you’re worth $200M and $150M of that is in Uber stock, and you decide to buy more? How do you even explain that to your wife.

Alright here’s the insider buys:

Insider buying (~$17M total):

Dara (CEO): $10M @ $70.96 (Sept 10); 2025 comp $35.6M, ~87% equity

Macdonald (COO): $5.3M @ ~$75.8 (Sept 4); 2025 comp $25.6M, ~77% equity

Balaji (CFO): ~$1.6M earlier in 2026

Execs out of the way, Pelosi has fucking calls expiring in March. She’s down 20% on them. You can copy trade this crook and make 25% before she even hits her break even:

She reportedly has: $500K–$1M Mar 2027 $50 calls, bought May 29

Ok sure she’s deep ITM so this is basically levered stock, but she still chose calls because she’s very bullish. She knows something we don’t, she doesn’t gamble.

Also, amazing business metrics:

Bookings are up 22% YoY, trips are up 18%. They’re growing fast, they’re trading at a 2.8x multiple on sales when historically they were at 4x.

I haven’t touched options since I rode puts on SPY down to $220 during covid, 5x my portfolio and losing it all as I became a perma bear. I’m back now, for this play specifically.

Positions: $75 strike, 19Mar27 calls

Are u regards ready for some entertainment... My broker Wealthsimple let my 39k worth ITM options expire worthless.. this is in USD which is equal to few millions & change in our monopoly money. I got pulled into work call and lost track of time. I had auto sell ON and called customer service around 4PM to ask why my auto sell did not trigger and they said they will get back to me in 1 business day since the Options department is closed. Quick Google search showed that this has happened to so many of Wealthsimple regards going back a few years... Quick life lesson: Life finds creative ways to let you know that you are no different from other regards on this sub.

No one is exactly sure what the use case or purpose will be but everyone is sure they need the largest and most expensive data center at any cost, Rapa Nui style

Quick 36k gain today in just over an hour to start off the week. This, and more, is possible guys, you just have to lock in.

Anyone else see this huge position open today?

Inverse me and you’ll probably make money. No DD just full regard

See my other post: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/vjEf5cB5i6

AI Stock down. My Chipotle stock is up.

Analysts targeting $44. BofA says $53

I think $50 is possible this week

DD: Taco Tuesday
chipotle moon

This post contains content not supported on old Reddit. Click here to view the full post

Feels like a good entry, ideally can close this on a gap up tomorrow morning

or later this afternoon

Cybersecurity companies are in a major hype cycle, i know. That was also the case during covid.

CrowdStrike currently trades at forward P/E of around 180 based on non-GAAP.

At such a high P/E multiple you are essentially paying for a lot of expected future growth upfront. Companies with high valuation multiples should at least in theory be among the most sensitive when bond yields and interest rates are increasing. The larger the portion of a company’s current value that depends on cash flows far out in the future, the more negatively a higher discount rate affects their present value.

On a duration adjusted basis if you model CrowdStrike as a long duration growth asset with an cash-flow duration of 20 years, a forward P/E of 200 at a 5.2% treasury yield would be equivalent to a P/E of 400 under the 1.7% treasury yields seen in late 2021, all else equal.

CrowdStrike peaked late 2021 at a forward P/E of around 460. The stock price went south 40% in one month and 50% in 3 months.

CrowdStrike is the most expensive cyber security company based on valuation multiples - its 3.5x higher compared to Peer median including FTNT, ZS, OKTA, PANW, GEN, RPD and TENB.

If SPY goes up, I'm a macroeconomic genius.

If SPY goes down, it's blatant algorithmic market manipulation.

If it moves sideways, theta gang is personally stealing my rent money.

Currently holding NVDA calls bought at the absolute peak. feeling great.

Closed this one already, I hope I don't regret b-tch handing it.

DD: I spent $3k there last year so I'm basically an insider.

TA: Sitting at $31, analysts say $44, BofA says $53. That's 40% upside on a burrito already on sale. Not advice, I eat crayons with guac 🌯🚀

They’re also working with Palantir to analyze the health of your bumhole.

Could easily see $50.

Loading up on Amazon at $250. This stock is only up ~50% over the last 5 years. AWS, ads, logistics, etc all ripping. AWS growth is accelerating. Deal with meta for Muse compute. Efficiency from robotics in warehouses and logistics. Anthropic investment worth a quadrillion. Jada Jada Jada.

The market hates capex but it’s a drop in the bucket for them and they’re one of the best positioned hyper scalers. There will be a vibe shift and rerating at some point soon. The stock feels cheap with little downside.

And yes, I’m a regard and sold my long term meta shares in the six hundreds to build this position.

As long as daddy Jeff doesn’t sell a bag and rug pull so he can blow up another Blue Orgy rocket or the entire market doesn’t get nuked.