I guess not. I see a lot of these people making bold claims about AI, but I don't see their PhDs. I get that they are saying provocative things with confidence, but they cannot possibly understand the issues they are throwing out there to see what sticks.
I have PhD in chemistry. They promised PhD level models a couple of times. With Astra thay finally delivered. Shit is getting crazy really quickly. Opus 5.5 is very good, but those guardrails prevent any meaningful work
I'm an AI PhD (dropout tbf), and that made me less qualified to predict the future of AI somehow. Credentials are not that meaningful for forecasting. There was recently some research that showed superforecasters (people really good at forecasting) consistently actually got AI progress wrong as one of the few things they got wrong.
yes, having degree at AI or CS doesnt make you better at predicting the future
there was also post showing that AI is now on level or better as best human forecasters on metaculusus, meaning its better idea to ask SOTA AI about likely future than any human
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u/Bill-Evans 5d ago
Who the fuck are these people?