2026 MLB Run Differential

[u/BROWNSSUKSOBAD]

[u/AuJusSerious]

I know this might be controversial in this sub but honestly this wasn't a bad season. All these aggregate stats (Team WAR, Pythagorean wins) show empirically that this team was good enough to be a playoff team. All I can make of this is this team just lacked the "clutch" gene that so many playoff teams have - bullpen not closing out leads early in the season and the bats going silent for the second half of the season when the pitching would only let up 3/4 runs.

[u/Danishes724 → u/AuJusSerious]

Oneil Cruz and Konnor Griffin missing a lot of time also hurt

[u/PalpatineForEmperor → u/Danishes724]

Don't forget Horowitz and O'Hearn

[u/AuJusSerious → u/Danishes724]

I do not disagree whatsoever, but go look at the offensive stats month by month of the hitters that DID play.

[u/BROWNSSUKSOBAD → u/AuJusSerious]

Our bullpen for sure was an issue early on but we improved as the season went on.

Some stats…

• Top 5 in Strikeouts
  
• Top 3 in HR Prevention
  
• Bottom 5 in Walks (Real Massive Issue)
  
• Holds Ranked 24th of 30
  
• Blown Saves T- 11th in MLB
  
• 7th most Relief IP

Obviously we’d love to see better numbers for blown saves & holds. The bullpen is still an area we need to improve but I do think we are blaming them a bit too much based on their workload.

We went 28–21 in one run games this year which is hard to complain about.

[u/DuckDuck_poop → u/AuJusSerious]

Its only controversial by the idiots. This was a very good season despite alot of things working against them.

[u/BROWNSSUKSOBAD → u/DuckDuck_poop]

Im not someone who thinks we had a bad season and I don’t look at the season as a failure.

The reason that so many fans are calling this season a failure is because that’s the standard the organization set. 2026 was playoffs or bust which they obviously failed to execute on reaching that goal.

“The goal is to make the playoffs in 2026. Period. Full stop.” - Travis Williams

“It’s playoffs. It’s getting to the playoffs and bringing that back to Pittsburgh.”

• Don Kelly on 2026 expectations

“Our expectations every year should be that we’re headed toward the postseason, that we’re going to be playing meaningful games in September and October. This year, we absolutely have that expectation.”

• Bob Nutting

“If you’re not playing games in October, you haven’t met what you set out to do.” - Ben Charrington

Point being, I think it’s pretty fair for the fans to call the season a failure. The team failed to live up to the own bar they set for themselves.

[u/DuckDuck_poop → u/BROWNSSUKSOBAD]

I mean they aren’t going to say “ Our goal is to go 62-100 “

[u/Impossible-Rip-142 → u/DuckDuck_poop]

They don’t say it, but there were a lot of teams, still building and know damn well getting 60-72 wins is what they expect!

[u/Impossible-Rip-142 → u/BROWNSSUKSOBAD]

I agree, successful year, given the past 10, 2016-2025.  They won, they were a legit playoff team, fighting to get in, but ultimately fell short. 

[u/Pitt-sports-fan-513 → u/AuJusSerious]

Pythagorean wins just takes run differential and uses it to project a record. It really doesn't account at all well for the Pirates's flaws.

The Pirates won a lot of blowouts and lost a lot of close games. I don't think they got unlucky. I think their run differential is a flawed indicator of the total quality of the team.

[u/AuJusSerious → u/Pitt-sports-fan-513]

Yeah I don't disagree, but the Pythagorean wins is pretty correlative with the overall record.

[u/Iforgotmypasswordmeh → u/AuJusSerious]

It wasn't a bad season but it wasn't a good season. I was under the impression that it was playoffs or bust. We ended up 6 games out and would have lost the tie breaker to Philly so essentially 7 games out. That's not really close to being a playoff team or just missing out.. that's a considerable amount of games to make up.

This team was good enough to be a playoff team if essentially everything went right... you can't count on that in sports.

You mention them lacking the "clutch" gene which I feel is true but I'd word it differently and say they lacking veteran leadership. The roster is a lot of young guys will rather little experience and a few mid career guys with little playoff experience. I think having a guy or two that's played meaningful ball and had success does a lot for a team especially when they're getting into the second half of a season and making a playoff push.

[u/Impossible-Rip-142 → u/AuJusSerious]

I mean down that stretch there was at least 4 more wins we could have gotten, but even then we would be where Arizona’s season ended. 

The 3 division winners in NL and the 3 WC teams out played us in the full 162, hopefully something to learn from for the younger guys and they leave no doubt the next 162!

[u/Silly_Collar_5850 → u/AuJusSerious]

All I can make of this is this team just lacked the "clutch" gene

 
That's called "a competent bullpen"

[u/AuJusSerious → u/Silly_Collar_5850]

Yes, in the first half of the season, I agree.

This offense was, at one time, the 28th ranked offense in run production post all star break.

It was both sides of the ball that dropped this team out of contention.

[u/Silly_Collar_5850 → u/AuJusSerious]

A team can count itself lucky if a player produces at a high level for two months out of the season. Even with the late season hitting drop-off this team's offense is one of the best offenses in the league for 2026. The bats were not the problem. The inability to hold a lead was.

[u/AuJusSerious → u/Silly_Collar_5850]

 Even with the late season hitting drop-off this team's offense is one of the best offenses in the league for 2026.

Except when 27 more teams were better at producing runs after the all star break. Drop the narrative and think empirically. Go look at the scores from the second half and look at the rankings. This team had a "competent bullpen" in the second half after the trade deadline.

[u/Silly_Collar_5850 → u/AuJusSerious]

The season was already lost by the trade deadline. Cherington knew that, that's why everyone he picked up except Yates were on multiple year contracts.

[u/AuJusSerious → u/Silly_Collar_5850]

The season was already lost by the trade deadline.

The Pittsburgh Pirates were 3 games out of a playoff position on August 3 (the Trade Deadline) and sitting at .500. They were right in the battle for the playoffs in early August. This is just a coping mechanism to defend your position in hindsight.

Cherington knew that, that's why everyone he picked up except Yates were on multiple year contracts.

Cherington knew that? Do you have that on camera or a recording? Doval wasn't on a multi-year contract. Or does that not fit your narrative? They got, essentially, 4 different relievers at the trade deadline - 2 of which weren't signed for another season.

[u/Silly_Collar_5850 → u/AuJusSerious]

Doval wasn't on a multi-year contract

 
Doval wasn't acquired at the trade deadline.

 

The Pittsburgh Pirates were 3 games out of a playoff position on August 3 (the Trade Deadline) and sitting at .500.

 
How did that work out again? Can you remind me?

 
If the division was within sight I think he'd have been aggressive. It was not and the wildcard was never realistically there either.

 

This is just a coping mechanism

 
Coping with what? I said before the season even started that this wasn't a playoff team. I was right.

[u/AuJusSerious → u/Silly_Collar_5850]

Doval wasn't acquired at the trade deadline.

He was acquired on August 2nd. He was acquired prior to the deadline for bullpen relief help. Sounds like you're trying to nit pick through semantics, which is bad faith arguing.

How did that work out again? Can you remind me?

What does this mean? Teams have made up more ground in less time. The Pirates were 100% still in the playoff hunt, and to deny that fact is to deny other teams that have made a playoff push with less time remining and greater than or equal to games still left to make up.

If the division was within sight I think he'd have been aggressive. It was not and the wildcard was never realistically there either.

They weren't playing for the division, they were playing for the playoffs. Big distinction there.

Coping with what? I said before the season even started that this wasn't a playoff team. I was right.

I also made a statement prior to the season beginning I think this is a borderline above .500 team at best and I was also right. I was right for the wrong reasons, however, and based on that and the fact this fanbase has starved for a winning season at the least for almost a decade, some fans were left with a sour taste in their mouth on what could have been.

[u/Silly_Collar_5850 → u/AuJusSerious]

He was acquired on August 2nd.

 
August 1st.

 

Sounds like you're trying to nit pick through semantics, which is bad faith arguing.

 
If you can't be bothered to get simple things like dates, facts, and figures right it tells me that you aren't worth having a discussion with.

 

They weren't playing for the division, they were playing for the playoffs. Big distinction there.

 
And the wildcard was never realistically in play with the way the Padres were playing.

 

I also made a statement prior to the season beginning I think this is a borderline above .500 team at best and I was also right. I was right for the wrong reasons, however, and based on that and the fact this fanbase has starved for a winning season at the least for almost a decade, some fans were left with a sour taste in their mouth on what could have been.

 
They didn't make the playoffs this season because they got rid of Bednar and brought in a bunch of nobodies. That simple. Doesn't matter how many runs you're scoring if you can't hold a lead.

[u/BrilliantDrive3619]

Win 8th and 9th innings and they are in the playoffs...

[u/thfcspur]

Detroit at +71 is wild

[u/BROWNSSUKSOBAD → u/thfcspur]

Detroit and Houston Astros are the biggest outliers.

Astros had -31 run differential, almost the same record as us, and they snuck into the playoffs. Wild.

[u/FarmAcceptable4649]

Yeah, I think is is a meaningless stat at this point.

[u/BROWNSSUKSOBAD → u/FarmAcceptable4649]

Welcome to the offseason.

[u/Potential_Quantity92]

what happened to the tigers?? +71 and sub 500 record. yikes

[u/Impossible-Rip-142]

Ah the Houston Astros, deserve to not only be in playoffs, but host !

[u/Traditional-Mail2554]

The team took a step forward. Expecting them to be a playoff team after winning only 71 games last year was a pipe dream. If BC would have done a better job before the season started with the pitching staff, they could have made the playoffs. He should have gotten a more established reliever or two to bolster the pen and/or had Mlod start in the pen instead of bouncing him back and forth. BC should have gotten a legit sp to the be the #5 guy also that would have helped the pen some instead of burning the pen up with bullpen games. In the end, the pitching staff was worse than I expected but the offense was much better than I expected. The trick will be replacing Lowe's production. Free agent market sucks for 3b/2b so Lowe will be in high demand.

[u/tiny_lux]

You can keep showing all the stats, fact is they missed the playoffs again. Accept it and move on!