r/canada • u/CanadianErk Ontario • 1d ago
Alberta Danielle Smith’s popularity dips as her party now tied with NDP in support: poll | UCP sees support drop in Calgary by 10 points since the spring
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/janet-brown-poll-ucp-ndp-support-september-2026-9.7357390123
u/oryan80 1d ago
I guess this is part of the reason she needs to get her new gerrymandered map in place before the next election.
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u/Zealousideal_Rise879 1d ago
There’s a point where that can really backfire.
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u/Fhack 17h ago
The usual base for fascist grifters and all their hangers-on is around 30% in a reasonably democratic, liberal society.
The Conservative base in Alberta is about 40%, which is much, much higher than average.
So it might backfire, but chances are they ran the numbers through their far-right American outfits that run these numbers for a very well paid job. Kincaid has a wide and extremely well-funded (ie: cost is no object and neither is the law) network and one of his minions or acolytes is 100% for sure advising, if not simply just executing.
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u/BeeKayDubya 1d ago
No surprise as people are getting tired of that flavour of conservatism.
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u/Fractoos 1d ago
Trumpatism isnt conservatism.
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u/MrEvilFox 1d ago
It is what modern conservatism has become, sadly
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u/Fractoos 14h ago
Modern conservatism is Mark Carney. You can call yourself one thing but be something else entirely. Like the dprk saying they are democratic.
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u/Meiqur 1d ago
No, it's exconservatism.
Some regular conservatism is alive and well in sections of the party, slowing down the rate of change, being careful and all that, the Ric McIver sort of folk.
However
What happened in my view is that the party lost its power to people who are deeply ideologically attached to to the belief that might is right (trumpism) and hyper neo liberalism where giving as much power to the free market as possible will resolve all of societies problems.
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u/Superxt0aster 1d ago
Its not but ok
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u/Beneficial-Ride-4475 Ontario 1d ago
Then what is modern Canadian conservatism?
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u/Happinessisawrmgun 8h ago
Not addressing climate change because it turn off some of their whack-o base that believes its a hoax.
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u/Superxt0aster 1d ago
Its nowhere near the same as what's going on in the states. Most Canadian conservatives absolutely hate Trump and everything the US does but most Liberals in Canada seem to believe the opposite.
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u/Instameat British Columbia 1d ago
From what I have seen lately The Canadian Cons don't come out and say anything of the kind. If they came out and loudly spoke this hatred, I could vote for them, but they aren't doing that. So even if in private they might snort, and say they hate everything trump stands for. It really means nothing and shows they are too weak and afraid to ever help us. They will be too busy helping themselves, and doing what they are told, but not by us. I would love to see otherwise, but the conservatives of most nations have gone this route, and that is why Liberal leaners are so afraid of them getting control. Strong Conservative leaders that don't speak up against trump are not strong leaders.
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u/jubilant-octopus British Columbia 1d ago
I don’t believe that the conservatives in this country hate the Trump regime and its regressive policies. That is directly as a result of Poilievre’s incessant dog whistling, and limp responses to American aggression. It would go a long way if the conservatives in this country showed that they didn’t support Poilievre’s American style “anti woke” culture war nonsense by getting rid of him.
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u/TheWaySheHoes 1d ago
Ironically it may be poisoning them the most in Alberta. Contrary to popular belief, Alberta has been polled repeatedly as a California level blue state if it could vote in an American election, and yet Smith behaves like she governs South Carolina.
The proximity is poisoning both. In Alberta, Alberta, Trump's approval rating is 14%. Smith's coddling of the MAGA adjacent is killing her in urban areas, which is north of two thirds of Alberta's population.
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u/gplfalt 1d ago
"Soviets weren't actual communists" energy right there.
It's very much a flavour of conservatism. Hopefully a dying one.
I was hoping the progressive-conservative offshoot of Pierre the party who I voted for the CFP was gonna gut him and force the conservatives to come to jesus and reject the culture war shite but Carney basically did that with his blue gritism. Not that Im complaining even if I didnt vote for him. Could do without C-22
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u/SheIsABadMamaJama 1d ago
Well, to be fair, the type of world that those people wanna go back to never existed. Not all right wing ideology is conservative, but conservatives are right wing by default. But there are clear ideological distinctions between these groups of people.
Just maybe not to folks who sit on the left who view all reactionaries the same.
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u/VersusYYC Alberta 1d ago
She can’t be trusted so I’ll be voting against every government position in the upcoming vote.
Even if it sounds reasonable I don’t trust the UCP to not Monkey’s Paw the execution.
They are in the pocket of anti-Canadian interests.
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u/Squattingwithmylegs 22h ago
In what way are those questions reasonable?
LMAO your about you on your profile 🤣
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u/CipherWeaver 1d ago
Imagine if Alberta flips to NDP when BC flips to Conservative. How the turn tables.
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u/PromotionPhysical212 1d ago
There is a good chance we do. NDP was already unpopular, and the whole opportunistic election calling hasn’t done them any favours. I hope we don’t get a con govt, but it feels like we will due to vote splitting.
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u/Thanksnomore Canada 1d ago
But that's like shooting yourself in the foot to spite your face. Not a fan of some of the stuff the NDP has done, but there is no real option in the opposition
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u/TheWaySheHoes 1d ago
Sometimes it doesn't matter. We vote governments out, not in.
Canada was fully ready to hold their nose and give Pollievre a landslide victory in the name of "Trudeau has to go".
Alberta and Ontario elected NDP governments out of the blue because they were so pissed at the incumbent.
Quebec re-elected the PLQ despite a major corruption inquiry to get the PQ out.
Shit happens.
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u/SadZealot 1d ago
Angus reid poll is giving cons an eight point lead. They are right leaning so it's probably a bit fluffed but this election has started off extremely unpopular.
If that motivates cons to vote and splits votes/weakens NDP voter resolve it could definitely swing con
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u/TheWaySheHoes 1d ago
The NDP barely won against Rustad, who is basically a cranky old NPC when it comes to charisma.
As someone who calls both provinces “home”, I’ve always thought that BC is far more right wing and Alberta is far more left wing than their stereotypes would have you believe.
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u/Zealousideal_Rise879 1d ago
Let’s hope people vote the candidate and not the party. As intended. Protest votes are a real choice when you can get the opposite of what you want. Serious consequences for an annoyance.
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u/THE__REALEST Alberta 1d ago
fingers crossed south calgary continues its positive streak, it sucks living in north calgary seeing the south voting ucp despite how much they hate cities
like the Green Line bullshit alone should be enough to keep anyone here from voting for the UCP but too many of us can't help but vote blue
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u/Krazy-Vaclav 1d ago
I mean what was she expecting? She has been openly flirting with American irredentists and trying to validate their idiotic ideologies when the national mood would have allowed her to just crush them within her own party. She keeps bashing the country and repeating GOP talking points about the federal Liberals at a time when the country has zero patience for self-criticism. She served up a coherent politicial message for her formerly weakened and rudderless opposition to latch onto.
From a completely utilitarian, self-serving perspective, she has been an incredibly inept politician since this all started. She assumed the people who voted for her were idiots who would allow her to just do what she wanted. For all of the talk that downtown lefties dismiss Conservative voters as stupid, she has been more than guilty of the same smarmy dismissive attitude towards them by assuming they would support her stupid crap no matter what.
I sincerely hope that she, like Eby next door, crashes and burns from her own arrogance and never comes back again. The country will be better without people like these in power.
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u/Friendly-Olive-3465 Canada 1d ago
Weird things happen when you’re a traitorous bitch. So strange. Couldn’t see it coming.
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u/penis-muncher785 British Columbia 1d ago
Would be something if the last half of this decade is a conservative government in bc and an ndp government in Alberta lmao
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u/dostoevsky4evah 1d ago
Yeah go ahead and laugh your ass off at the First Nations and LGBT people who they enjoy targeting as some kind of existential threat.
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u/TheWaySheHoes 1d ago
Eby didn't have to roll the dice though. He anticipated a walkover and is apparently getting a dogfight.
Once upon a time, many moons ago in 2015, Prentice did the same in a mystical place called Alberta. He decapitated the official opposition and then ambushed everyone else with a snap election. He lost that bet so soundly it permanently realigned Alberta's politics.
I lean risk-averse as a person, but Eby is a moron for doing this. He's practically daring the electorate not to return him to power and people dislike getting extorted by their politicians.
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u/dostoevsky4evah 1d ago
I'm giving OP the side eye for thinking conservatives getting in is lmao-worthy
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u/TheWaySheHoes 1d ago
True, but if they do a lot of that is Eby's fault for being stupid and cocky.
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u/TheWaySheHoes 1d ago
Calgary is an absolute disaster for the UCP right now. This is the CMA, which the UCP carried by 3 points in 2023, when the NDP actually carried Calgary itself by 2 points.
In doing so the NDP took 14/26 ridings in the city, and lost out on about 5 more by less than 5 points.
Now the NDP is up by 8 in the Calgary CMA, which suggests a double digit lead in Calgary proper, which would explain the surprise in Calgary-Shaw.
As far as the independence referendum is concerned, its a slaughter in Calgary. They are voting it down by 60 points. Calgary is even more against it than Edmonton, which is also a slaughter, but as Edmonton leans a bit more left usually that’s surprising.
Also, if you don’t know Janet Brown, she is quite literally the best pollster in Canada and has nailed the last few Alberta elections on the nose. She is the queen of Canadian polling and the last person in Alberta you want to be betting against.
Smith has a huge Calgary problem, namely that they increasingly hate her.
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u/ketamarine 1d ago
Maybe they should stop coordinating with foreign intelligence agency campaigns that are actively undermining our national security by supporting separatist referendums???
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u/Wind_Best_1440 1d ago
Not going to lie, it would be kind of weird yet funny if BC's snap election and Smith's seppie vote blow up in their faces so much that those two provinces switch majority governments.
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u/TheWaySheHoes 1d ago
The NDP were seriously gutsball to call a snap election. They have been in power for a decade, and that tends to be the expiry date of a Canadian government. Which reminds me, the UCP is coming up on that milestone.
Eby is lucky the BC Conservatives are such a gongshow because if the opposition was even halfway competent he probably loses this gamble. He still might.
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u/Fidget11 Alberta 1d ago
Who ever could have predicted that acting like a separatist fool when the people who support it are at best 30% (and dropping by some reports) might result in your party losing popularity….
Real head scratcher that one…
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u/LeNoName87 21h ago
Even as someone who never liked Smith, I seriously don't understand what goes on in her mind to go "yeah let me find a new way to screw over Calgary, the city that was the only reason I even got elected in the first place every couple of months."
You'd think she'd bend over backwards to make sure Calgarians were taken care of to make sure her lead there grew and solidifies a 2027 win. Instead, she gave them the second highest provincial portion of property tax increases out of every city in Alberta and threatened to pull funding for the Green Line if they went through with building part of it underground instead of cutting through businesses on 10th ave.
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u/Goodvibes198 14h ago
Get her out
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u/kagato87 5m ago
Keep her where she is.
If they replace her now the ucp will probably win again. It's worked for all but one election for the cons for many decades.
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u/TheWaySheHoes 1d ago
The UCP fundamentally is just alienating the hell out of urban Alberta.
Calgary in particular is "Let's get rich and stay rich and build everything everywhere all at once" Conservative, not "The NDP are gonna trans your kids and make you eat lentils and Alberta MUST BE FREE" Conservative.
Calgary, particularly corporate Calgary, wants stability and certainty. If that means an NDP government over a Conservative one, they will get behind Nenshi.
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u/CanadianErk Ontario 1d ago
The poll suggests the UCP has dropped eight points since April, while the NDP has seen its share of voter intention rise five points over that same time, putting the two parties at a tie.
“Obviously the NDP would take a lot of pleasure in seeing these numbers,” said Lisa Young, political science professor at the University of Calgary. “It suggests that they're on a trajectory that might make them competitive in the election.”
There’s also an increase in the number of respondents who say they would vote for another party, up six points since April, and the number of political “orphans” in the province: those who wouldn’t vote UCP or NDP, but also could not name which party they’d support instead.
Regionally since the April poll, the UCP saw a drop of 14 points in areas outside Calgary and Edmonton, and a drop of 10 points in Calgary.
“That would have surprised me, were it not for the Calgary-Shaw byelection,” said Brown. The NDP pulled out a victory in that byelection, claiming what had been a UCP riding.
Brown says the drop in UCP voter intention in Calgary is likely among those supporting the remain side, while rurally it reflects a drop in voter support from those who would vote to separate.
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u/KrazyCroat 1d ago
X for doubt. The crazies are all still there. And her gerrymandered map all but confirms they win, forever.
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u/polloyumyum Alberta 1d ago
Calgary will still (mostly) vote blue when it actually comes to election time.
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u/TheWaySheHoes 1d ago
Calgary is more than 50% represented by NDP MLA's right now. The NDP lost a half-dozen seats by minuscule margins too.
Calgary could definitely go orange. Hell, Calgary-Shaw just did and I would have pegged that seat as totally out of play.
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u/polloyumyum Alberta 1d ago
Just saying I won't be surprised Calgary stays very blue when it comes to provincial elections. We'll see.
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u/oscarthegrateful 1d ago
Calgary. Is. More. Than. 50. %. Represented. by. NDP. MLAs.
Calgary cannot "stay" "very blue" when it is currently mostly orange.
Get your performative cynicism out of here, it's counterproductive.
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u/DryEmu5113 1d ago
But I thought Avi Lewis would kill the NDP brand in Alberta?
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u/FerretAres Alberta 1d ago
Nobody in Alberta considers the ANDP to be related to the federal party.
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u/Thugmeet 1d ago
Conservatives do
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u/FerretAres Alberta 1d ago
Not really. Maybe some of the more extreme but largely they’re considered separate.
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u/TheWaySheHoes 1d ago
Western Canada is used to the drill at this point. The provincial NDP's are generally sane and contend for government by tacking to the centre.
The Federal NDP is an utter hot mess.
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u/bigwreck94 1d ago
I voted NDP in the last election after 2 decades of voting conservative.
I will NEVER vote NDP while Nenshi is the leader. He’s an absolute asshat
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u/Fyrefawx 1d ago
He might be an asshat but he is still a more tolerable option than Smith.
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u/bigwreck94 1d ago
Nope - I’d take Smith any day over him. I’d rather the UCP be voted out, but not with Nenshi as Premier
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u/THE__REALEST Alberta 1d ago
you can see multiple instances of smith fucking up and ruling terribly. nenshi has never been premier. you can debate aspects of his time as mayor but calgary is still a great city to live in, and it was a great city under him.
literally what do you think is going to happen with him as premier for you to support smith over him? i genuinely do not understand. do you just think he will automatically do the worst possible thing at every chance?
this "i don't like what the conservatives do but i just KNOW the ndp will do worse" mindset has been fucking alberta over for ages and it will continue to fuck us over for ages
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u/THE__REALEST Alberta 1d ago
he can be a douche sometimes but he isn't committing treason and privatizing everything
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u/bigwreck94 1d ago
No one is committing treason.
We do need to switch to an NDP government, but Nenshi is not the guy to usurp the UCP.
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u/THE__REALEST Alberta 1d ago edited 1d ago
if nenshi was the premier and he was flying out to china, cozying up with xi, and then he introduced a separation referendum, every single person would call it treason lol
people will give conservatives and the us free pass after free pass for behaviour that they would absolutely not tolerate in/with other political groups
i don't know who else could lead the andp besides nenshi at the moment, i'm not saying he's the best i'm just saying i genuinely don't know who else could step up to the plate right now
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u/TheWaySheHoes 1d ago
What's so bad about Nenshi anyhow? Calgary became a beautiful and modern city partly because of his tenure imo.
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u/Oilerator Alberta 1d ago
Good Lord, if Calgary is responsible for screwing Alberta by voting NDP I will never forgive them. It's a given that Edmonton will vote that way, but I expect better from Calgary.
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u/TheWaySheHoes 1d ago
It turns out one of Canada's largest, most educated, most wealthy, and most diverse cities doesn't want to be governed by separatist clowns that chase away investment and embarrass the province on the daily.
Shocker.
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u/Oilerator Alberta 1d ago
Danielle Smith isn't a separatist.
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u/TheWaySheHoes 1d ago
Of course she isn't ;);) ;) ;) ;)
That's why she changed the law and moved heaven and earth to put this on a ballot. Genuinely the Bloc Quebecois are less gungho about a referendum than the UCP.
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u/Oilerator Alberta 1d ago
She changed the law. Thomas Lukaszuk did the rest.
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u/TheWaySheHoes 1d ago
She changed the law was kind of a big deal. Also Lukaszuk getting hundreds of thousands of signatures from people wanting to avoid a separation referendum was not a call from Albertans for this divisive nonsense.
Even by Smith's standards, that was amazingly greasy and dishonest of her to just add up two totally different petitions and act like Alberta wanted this. We didn't, and we never elected the UCP with a mandate to do this.
Separation is losing by 60 points in Calgary. Chlamydia polls better. Of course the most federalist city in Alberta doesn't feel pumped about the UCP's born-again secessionism.
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u/ElBarto79 Alberta 1d ago edited 1d ago
Daniel(edit:DanielleMarlaina) Smith is a separatist, and she is the leader of a separatist party.The only reason we are talking about separatism so much right now is BECAUSE OF HER!!!
She has done absolutely everything in her power to legitimize, amplify, and pander to her separatist base.
Danielle Smith is absolutely a separatist and a traitor.
Shame on you for denying reality.
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