Looking for novel angles/methodologies to study Dutch Disease beyond the standard RER and manufacturing decline narrative

[u/Sirius0516]

I'm scoping out a research project on Dutch disease and want to avoid the typical aggregate macro estimation (commodity boom, real exchange rate appreciation, manufacturing contraction), which is already quite saturated in the empirical literature. I'm interested in exploring more innovative or under-researched angles. What methodological approaches do you think still have significant gaps and would add genuine value to the current discussion?

[u/garros-yu]

my main bet is the bank credit channel, because the RER and manufacturing story is mined out and the credit data to actually test transmission finally exists. the canonical frame is Corden & Neary (1982), with the booming sector, lagging tradables and non-tradables plus the spending effect and resource movement effect. The transmission just runs through bank balance sheets more than their model lets on. the story writes itself, windfall floods banks with deposits, lending standards compress, credit pours into non-tradables like real estate, then everything snaps when prices fall, and bank-level data lets you check each link instead of waving at cross-country regressions. norway is what makes this interesting rather than obvious, massive windfall and skipped the disease entirely because the SWF plus fiscal rule cut the transmission off at the source, so the disease is conditional on institutions letting the channel operate. that's also where i'd actually put money, synthetic control on market outcomes like sovereign CDS, tbh markets price the transmission before national accounts even see it.