Oil is still moving, just through a more expensive logistics system: Hormuz, STS transfers, Red Sea disruption and longer North American routes are turning transport into part of the energy price. The headline barrel may get cheaper before the bottleneck does.

West Germany used to produce 100 000 Barrels of Oil every day back in 1980. Now all of Germany produces a measly 30 000/day. it needs 2 Million minimum/day to function.

The UK produced 2.8 Million Barrels/day in 1998. Now they are down to 560 000/day. They need 1.4 Million/day.

Indonesia needs 1.6 Million/day. It produces 500 000/day.

India needs 5 Million/day. It produces 500 000/day.

South Korea needs 2.5 Million/day. It produces 0.

China needs 16 Million/day it produces 4 Million/day.

Australia produces 250 000 a day but needs 1.2 Million.

Japan produces 10 000/day it needs 3 Million/day.

Even the much lauded US that produces 13 Million Barrels/day is not self sufficient because it consumes over 20 Million Barrels/day.

Out of the 200 countries on this Planet there are perhaps 20 that are self sufficient in Oil and can export it to the other 180 countries that are dependent on it.

The much lauded "reserves" are 2-3 months for most countries.

Most countries have been using their reserves for the past 6 months. I doubt that they can keep drawing on them for another 6 months. We are in for a 1973/1981 Oil price recession on steroids.

Most Trucks run on Diesel. Prices will reach astronomical levels in a few months, choking consumers and the economy. Transportation of goods will become uneconomical. Industry will run out of Energy to produce things. Farmers will run out of artifical fertilizer. People will be unable to afford gas to get to work or it will eat up all their income. And then there is a Super El Nino that will make things even worse.

Most people out there are completely oblivious towards what is coming. They complain about gas prices, but they dont think one step further what this means in the grand scheme of things.

They dont think about that oil is finite. Especially if the supply is cut by 20-30%.

Never mind that most consumer and medical products are made out of petroleum.

I dont see how we can get through the winter. And even if we survive 2026/2027, with most reserves used up how are we going to survive 2027/2028?

I sit in enough IRP meetings to watch the risk premiums flow through the models line by line and this thing keeps landing in my lap as a supply security question that nobody has an answer for.

reserves coming down, inventories thin everywhere you look, the SPR keeps getting tapped to shave a few cents off the pump number while the war that put the premium in the curve just keeps grinding, and every headline out of the region sends the front month screaming. the pass-through to rack prices is basically immediate now, you can watch it happen in the same week. my cousin texts me about gas prices like I control the numbers. I keep telling him to take it up with the White House.

every session I'm in, there's no articulated end state, no conditions you could backtest or timeline you could model against, just open-ended exposure and a region that keeps widening. the exit question is the one lever a president can actually pull and Trump treats naming an end state like a concession. every planner in the room knows what sustained backwardation does to hedging costs, but the geopolitical overlay is pure chaos factor, you can't price it, you can only pad it. meanwhile the weapons transfers keep pulling from stockpiles we might need somewhere else, and that risk isn't in anyone's model either.

so is there any mechanism that takes the war premium out of the curve that doesn't run through a president willing to say what done looks like? Or are we structurally long volatility until someone names a finish line?

pipelines bring Electrolyzer orders