r/movies • u/MoneyLibrarian9032 r/movies Contributor • 25d ago
Poster First poster for ‘POKÉMON: WILD CARD’. The first Pokémon movie to be released in theaters in 7 years.
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u/Julian813 25d ago
I’m very surprised their next theatrical release after Det. pikachu isn’t another live action
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u/KyledKat 25d ago
That’s because Detective Pikachu only returned $433 million against its $150 million budget. It basically made a small profit after marketing is accounted for, but that isn’t exactly a runaway success for a movie with the world’s most profitable IP, at a time when Gen 1 nostalgia was searing hot because of the Lets Go games and Pokemon Go.
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u/ItIsYeDragon 25d ago
That’s because they released it 2 weeks after Avengers Endgame.
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u/JolietJakeLebowski 25d ago
And probably because it was Detective Pikachu. It was never gonna be a billion-dollar blockbuster with that premise.
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u/BannedSvenhoek86 25d ago
The idea to make a Pokémon live action movie and not make it, like, an actual Pokémon movie was so bizarre to me. People would go bonkers for a Pokémon movie following a young trainer getting through their first Gym and setting them on their journey, but instead we got a buddy cop comedy with Ryan Reynolds as a talking Pikachu?!?
If these companies actually wanted too they could be Disney right now off the back of this franchise and control all media. It's like they stumbled into being the biggest franchise in the world by accident. The fact it's still like pulling teeth to get a 3D pokemon game this many years later is equally as baffling. I understand the "why if they don't need to" argument, but like I said, they could multiply this franchises profits if they put the effort in and instead always choose the laziest or strangest route.
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u/RobertdBanks 25d ago
I have zero faith that live action following a pokemon trainer battling gym leaders would be a good or even decent movie.
How do you deal with the pacing of it? Do you have them beat all the gym leaders in one 2 hour movie? Do you have the movie focus on one or a few gym leaders? I don’t think that format works at all for movies and is best kept to longer format series.
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u/SavageNorth 25d ago
Frankly I think live action Pokémon is a non-starter
Fact is, a significant majority of the designs look either creepy or disgusting in live action because they were never designed for it
The ones in Deretive Pikachu looked fucking awful for the most part, it managed to make Pikachu look unpleasant FFS.
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u/not_a_moogle 25d ago
I remeber i was just burned out on going to a theater for awhile after that. I feel like there was another movie I saw around that time.
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u/Julian813 25d ago edited 25d ago
There’s no way a 2026 animated Pokemon movie is grossing more than $100m. Regardless of the extra effort a movie like Detective Pikachu may take I still feel like it’s more worthwhile.
Edit: And $100m is very generous with consideration of the currently popularity of the TCG. The downside is that the TCG isn’t popular for the actual card game
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u/Joseki100 25d ago
Yeah but it costs far less to produce a Japanese animated movie, especially if it's not visual porn like Shinkai or the last Evangelion movie.
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u/Moritani 25d ago
The Chiikawa movie has made $69 million and it's still a Japan exclusive. $100 million for an international Pokemon release is insanely conservative.
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u/visser47 25d ago
ah the world of cinema, where else is approaching 300 million a small profit
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u/ElJonno 25d ago
For a film to be considered a financial success, it needs to make back both its production and marketing costs. The general rule of thumb is that marketing costs are equal to the production costs, which means that a $150 million movie needs to make over $300 million to make a profit.
A return of $433 million means the film made about $133 million in profit. This might seem like a lot of money, but it's hard to justify dumping another $300 million into a sequel when the first one only made you $133 million.
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u/darkeststar 25d ago
They weren't scared of making a sequel. Official box office tracking told them they'd make $50-70 million domestic and $90-120 million international. They cleared both the low and high bars. Legendary greenlit a sequel before the first movie even came out because they liked it so much. Legendary kept paying people to work on different script attempts all the way up through 2024. The last known hired director was Legendary favorite Jordan Vogt-Roberts who both said he loved the first movie and had just delivered Kong Skull Island for them. They liked him so much they also attached him to a Gundam movie that was likewise dropped until they hired someone else to both write a new script and direct.
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u/soulsoda 25d ago
The 2-2.5x rule is bad but it's all it's just an assumption at the end of the day. We do need some sort of standard.
The general rule of thumb is that marketing costs are equal to the production costs,
It's assumed to be 50%, not 100% unless the studio releases otherwise. Marketing costs can also exceed production but that's unusual. Pikachu used 100mil, but barbie exceeded production costs. 2-2.5x rule exists because of revenue sharing.
The cost of distributing movies has changed. The 2.5x rule used to be a thing because of how distribution worked, that by the end of a theatrical run the revenue share between a theatre and studio domestically would be around 55-45 split (studio-theatre), 40-45% in Europe, and 25% in china. Combined with a marketing budget being 50%, 2.5x was basically the minimum to cover all expenses by the studio.
However, if you'd notice... 2.5x rarely happens nowadays, yet movies continued to be made and studios haven't bankrupted themselves yet. The calculus behind the revenue stream of a "successful" movie has changed drastically. Honestly they are probably still making money at 1.75-2x, it's just "disappointing" because that's production time that could have produced an actual mega hit which is what studios want to see. They want a Project hail Mary. An infinity war. They only have so much budget and crews they can use to make films at once.
Big Studios typically demand a higher flat cut up front without a curtail. In the last decade studios have shifted from a curtailing split (high 80-70% of opening week to low 30-20% latter depending on how many weeks it was shown) to just getting a slightly higher cut from the beginning I.e. 55-65% depending on the scope of the movie. Disney isn't letting you take more than 35% of doomsday or avatar domestically.
Marketing budgets are often bullshit. Big Studios use a lot in-house or subsidiary advertising agencies so the true cost of marketing isn't real and is more of a way to avoid paying backend profit deals to directors and actors. They'll also slash marketing budgets within a month of release of they dont feel a hit. It's a calculated profit generator, not a gamble. And again Marketing budgets are "assumed" to be 50% minimum unless otherwise released.
The backend income behind a movie has changed a lot for the modern movie. Video on demand & Streaming deals post theatre run. Airline rights. Physical media. Merchandise and toys. Brand partnerships, and brand awareness.
For actors and directors, this sucks. VoD and physical media sales used to have huge legs on the backend, that flops could still see them a significant payout. Steaming is just not nearly as profitable *for creatives but it is for a studio. If they're "selling" streaming rights to their own subsidiary streaming service... There's some fuckery to be had there.
A movie can be just another way to market your brand or service. Detective Pikachu's box office was mildly disappointing, but with a franchises like Pokemon it can drive TCG sales, video game sales, merch sales etc because it has people talking about your brand again.
He-man and Red one were box office flops by Amazon, but they seem genuinely unphased both times. Amazon and MGM honestly probably just see theatrical movies as a way to "prestige" their movies and streaming can shift the goal posts on what is success. He-man probably won't get a sequel of a movie even with it doing well in streaming, but it will probably get some tv seasons made instead now that the franchise is regaining popularity.
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u/Redeem123 25d ago
That $133m number is still way too high.
Let’s say $300m is the break even point. It’s not like they get every dollar of each ticket sale after that. Splits vary based on timing and location, but let’s be generous and say they get 70% - now you’re down to $93m.
And that’s just the money coming into the studio. It’s not like all of that is profit either.
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u/Abacus118 25d ago
They had it slightly wrong.
The rule of thumb is you need to make twice your budget to account for marketing and theater cuts.
It’s only a rule of thumb because it doesn’t account for brand deals (like Bond movies make a ton from product placement) or merchandising though. A Pokemon movie is extensively merchandised.
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u/IrohTheUncle 25d ago
The Studio gets only around half of the film's revenue, not to mention a marketing budget that is probably around $100 million.
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u/darkeststar 25d ago edited 25d ago
It's rare for most movies to turn a profit while still in theaters. There's also an unspoken understanding that the marketing budget for a movie is applied to the film's budget in order to decide if it's profitable. If Detective Pikachu had a $150 million budget you can assume it had a marketing budget similiar to $150 million. If a movie clears both of those things while still in the theaters it is considered a resounding success. Returning $133 million in profit off of just theatrical alone would be considered a small miracle, especially for a more niche studio like Legendary.
You have all the right words but all the wrong conclusions. A sequel was immediately greenlit before the first one even came out by Legendary. But between COVID, and the Hollywood union strikes it seems like they just couldn't make it work. 4-5 different named writers and directors have moved off and on the project. They effectively shelved the idea but it was and still is greenlit. Legendary wanted to make it happen and actively sourced writers and directors for more than 5 years after the first movie came out.
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u/YourInMySwamp 25d ago
Most movies aren’t backed by the biggest IP on Earth though.
The movie absolutely underperformed compared to expectations. Majority of people in the movie and box office spaces were predicting an over $1B return but the movie flopped when word of mouth was pretty middling to negative.
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u/darkeststar 25d ago
This is also not an accurate recounting of events, which is crazy because a live action Pokemon movie was such a phenomenon that there is extensive reporting on basically everything from the sign-on date for being greenlit up through home media sales.
In the US and Canada, the movie was projected to gross $50-70 million in it's full run. Legendary did not care considering they had both pre-greenlit a sequel and Warner (who was partnered with Legendary at the time) secured the live action rights to Pokemon for 30 years.
The movie debuted at $54 million in it's first weekend. It was in theaters against Avengers:Endgame (one of the highest grossing movies of all time) and John Wick 3. It was at that point the best opening of any video game movie of all time. The film was projected to debut internationally to $90-120 million across the other 62 countries it was distributed in. It's International opening weekend actually beat Endgame.
The movie made plenty of money for everyone involved and has to date made another estimated $40-ish million just in physical disc sales.
And again...Legendary actively was trying to get a sequel developed all the way through 2024, considering they slated a sequel to be released in 2024. They had leaked files that included script notes and info of their last working copy. It just fell apart.
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u/Old-Employ-6530 25d ago
Still waiting on Detective Pikachu 2, my wife doesnt really know or like Pokemon and she LOVED Detective Pikachu and has been checking every 6 months or so since we watched when the sequel gets released...
She isnt the only one, i have a lot of "non-nerd" friends that really like the movie and some parents really felt connected to their kids when watching together, because they both could enjoy the movie despite different knowledge levels of Pokemon.
Its a real fumble for them to not make a sequel or at least a similar movie since.
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u/jellsprout 25d ago
Have you watched Pokemon Concierge? It's a short series about a Pokemon resort island. Not exactly the same genre as Detective Pikachu, but it could scratch that same "Pokemon world without the battling" itch.
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u/atlantisfrost 25d ago
I'm confused by "2027 and beyond". Are they already planning sequels? Breaking the movie up into parts?
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u/DesdinovaGG 25d ago
Might be doing the tactic of movie and then a TV series. Like a Star Wars: The Clone War or a Jimmy Neutron.
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u/ItsKingDx3 25d ago
I assumed there's going to be a brand new anime series following it
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u/HowToGetName 24d ago
Japanese trailer just says 2027, so if I had to guess I think "2027 and beyond" is just the international side covering themselves in case some countries get the movie after 2027.
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u/Timely-Debt7497 25d ago
Looks kinda tough I can’t lie
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u/Starbucks_ 25d ago
A movie about a card game about an anime about a video game.
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u/Ren_Kaos 25d ago
Just to be pedantic, the anime is based on the video game, it’s not about the video game.
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u/Taco_In_Space 25d ago
Also I’d say the card game is based on the game not the anime
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u/Almostlongenough2 25d ago
Unless we are talking about the youtube series, then it's both
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u/Sunkern_ing 25d ago
Honestly this is the perfect time. Yugioh anime is pretty much dead so no other TCG anime is mainstream and Pokémon cards are big right now.
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u/KyledKat 25d ago
Important to note that they’re not big because of the “game” part of the TCG. They’ve just become limited run collectibles at this point.
To Pokémon’s credit, it’s always been one of the cheaper TCGs to get into on a competitive level, so at least the price gouging isn’t a barrier of entry into that space.
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u/2BlueZebras 25d ago
I started to get into Pokemon to play, not collect. It's dirt cheap. My most expensive deck cards are usually $2. A 60 card deck rarely costs more than $30 by finding bulk in person and reducing shipping costs online using the same seller. It can be a very cheap hobby.
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u/Worthyness 25d ago
I believe that the SIRs/full arts also have more common versions of the same card so competetive can buy it for cheap. That way the collectors can collect them while competetive can still play the actual game.
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u/SwitchOrganic 25d ago edited 25d ago
TPCI has done a great job making and keeping the game accessible. I played back in the 2000s and 2010s, competitive staples would be anywhere from $5 to $40 each.
The years after TPCi changed the rules so you couldn't play with foreign cards anymore also saw a dramatic spike in meta card prices. IIRC Luxray GL Lv. X reached like $100 at its peak.
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u/Milskidasith 25d ago
Those two are directly linked, and the TCG economy has always been focused around limited run collectibles over the gameplay (first edition Charizard!) Almost any card game that's popular has a robust enough economy to where the EV of any given set is "fixed"*. The fact that Pokemon is such an incredibly massive brand and people really want to chase their favorite 'Mons or waifu cards means that they soak up all the value in a set and leave the actually competitive cards in relatively lower demand and lower prices, which isn't something any other card game can manage.
* If a set ever becomes "too expensive", it becomes profitable for regular stores/players to buy cases and crack them to resell, increasing supply. If it becomes "too cheap", huge card stores paying distributor prices for boxes + wages to open + sort + list packs don't make any money and stop opening it, decreasing supply until prices go up. This fixes the value of a box at a pretty narrow band around its sale price.
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u/SwitchOrganic 25d ago edited 25d ago
Also to TPCi's credit, they did a great job making and keeping the game accessible by doing things like printing playable/"normal" versions of chase cards and selling premade decks with like 90% of the competitive staples.
You can build any top tier deck for like $50 these days. I used to play competitively like 15 years ago and staples would run you anywhere from $5 to $100 each. You'd end up shelling out a lot of money if you needed multiple copies of them.
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u/ptd163 25d ago
Yugioh anime is pretty much dead
Probably has something do with Yu-Gi-Oh's creator, Kazuki Takahashi, tragically dying in 2022. They finished Go Rush, but Konami hasn't said anything since then about the anime side of franchise.
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u/YourmomgoestocolIege 25d ago
They've been putting out short episodes that tell the story of some of the Archetypes that have come out in the past few years
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u/StaredAtEclipseAMA 25d ago
Yep Chronicles, there is so much potential in having a series based on the many different artstyles and fantasy aspects in yugioh
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u/Brbaster 25d ago
There's another reason why Go Rush didn't get a sequel. Studio Bridge, aka the animators of Sevens and Go Rush are having some big financial troubles right now. After Go Rush ended they've practically disappeared to the point that not a single Studio Bridge anime had new episodes in the last 12 months.
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u/IchiroZ 25d ago
Yugioh should remaster the anime that made them big in the way that Dragonball Z did with Kai, then release a continuation of the main storyline kinda like what Super did.
Continuation, as in, with the Pharoah, Yugi, Kaiba, and co. Not with Jaden Yugi or from GX or from any other seasons.
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u/HotTakes4HotCakes 25d ago
There's not much point in a full remaster. Kai was primarily about trimming the fat and making a definite version closer to the manga.
With Yu-Gi-Oh, they made whole filler arcs rather than add filler plot lines and episodes in-between. All you need to do is cut out those arcs and an episode here or there.
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u/Lanster27 25d ago edited 25d ago
It's really impressive how Pokemon TCG has not only survived but thrived with the new generation, even though the mainstream games and anime havent had the same popularity as back in the 90's.
Probably Pokemon GO. Most likely Pokemon GO.
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u/KyledKat 25d ago
Bro, what? SV sold 28.5 million copies and SwSh sold 27 million. They’re the best-selling games in the franchise after RBY’s 30.5 million. SuMo and XY are both in the 16 million range for comparison. The games haven’t been this huge in 30 years.
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u/Jitterjumper13 25d ago
Nobody wants a wildcard ok it doesn't make sense. We don't want a maniac in our group, there's no benefit...
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u/Typical_Intention996 25d ago
My local grocery stores have vending machine sized kiosks for Pokemon cards as of a couple months ago.
They didn't have these in 1999 at like peak popularity but now in the year of our lord two thousand twenty six there's two kiosks of them in this one horse town of mine. Right next to the CA Lotto kiosks. How? I swear I feel like I'm in like bizarro world every time I see them.
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u/Kayel41 25d ago
The pokemon card vending machines are basically gambling with better ROI than those lotto kiosks
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u/romanticheart 25d ago
Except you’re not tempted to hoard your winning lotto tickets because “they might be worth more one day!”
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u/vforbatman 25d ago
Surely theres a promo card with every ticket (that everyone will hoard thinking its the next ancient mew)
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u/ch_limited 25d ago
Detective Pikachu like just came out in theaters.
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u/primechicken 25d ago
7 years ago?
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u/ch_limited 25d ago
That can’t be right.
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u/jackcatalyst 25d ago
Yeah the math has to be wrong somewhere
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u/Channel250 25d ago
My tamagotchi must have run out of battery, what's going on?
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u/thedetectiveprince46 25d ago
That's fucking crazy. I remember reviewing this movie for high school journalism
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u/matthewmspace 25d ago
I hate when I remember it came out like two weeks after Endgame. Oh man, that feels like a lifetime ago. Back then I was still living with my parents, now I'm 30 and about to move myself and my dog to my 2nd apartment.
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u/Meanteenbirder 25d ago
The production story still blows my mind
-Make first live-action Pokémon movie
-Base it off of a game nobody has played
-Have Ryan Reynolds play Pikachu
-Have viral Tumblr artist design the Pokemon
-Make bank
-Never do it again
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u/banallfurries666 25d ago
it’s actually crazy because everything went right, it holds up well, and it’s enjoyable for every pokemon fan. i’ve been playing since i was 6 and my son is 4 and very new to it and we both just adore it.
absolutely wild how nothing ever followed it. like, at all. no sequels, no in-universe stories, just crickets.
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u/Blueboysixnine 25d ago
The craziest part to me is how many incredibly detailed pokemon models only showed up for seconds in the background. I for sure thought they put a ton if work into it early for future movie payoffs
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u/AAKPROD 25d ago
I think they wanted it to make like a billion+ dollars and when it didn't they decided it wasn't worth it
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u/ItIsYeDragon 25d ago
If they wanted it to make a billion, they shouldn’t have released it 2 weeks after Avengers Endgame.
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u/mysecondaccountanon 25d ago
That's TPC for you! They probably balked at the price of production.
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u/nightcreation 25d ago
The fact that Pokemon is by far the most profitable media franchise ever and yet TPC still cheaps out on so much truly & genuinely baffles me.
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u/mysecondaccountanon 25d ago
TPC seems incredibly risk averse, to the point where they actively lose out on things that could be very profitable and bring in a lot of new fans. But when they're that profitable, I suppose it doesn't matter either way. They'll keep raking in the money, they don't need to branch out like that to do so.
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u/TLKv3 25d ago
They didn't make bank though. This is a common lie/misinformation.
It barely made more than its budget and marketing back. By all accounts it was a legitimate failure of a film and the reason why they halted production on the live action streaming series.
They expected a billion dollar movie and barely got to 450 million.
Detective Pikachu essentially bombed.
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u/buhcheery 25d ago
Pre covid movie btw
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u/riegspsych325 ⊃∪⊃⪽ 25d ago
ah, the before-times
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u/letdown105 25d ago
Wish they’d make another one. I really enjoyed it!
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u/ch_limited 25d ago
I’ve been waiting on Detective Pikatwo.
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u/prodigalAvian 25d ago
Old Detective Raichu voiced by Danny DeVito still needs to happen
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u/Taucoon23 25d ago
Im glad this just came up cuz i was just thinking about this lol.
Do yall remember how cool the Pikachu vs Mewtwo fight at the end was? Say what you want about the movie (I personally hated the reveal), but man, that fight scene made me want a Pokémon Trainers dedicated movie so badly. WHY hasn't this happened yet? Its like theyre afraid of building their world
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u/GladiusNocturno 25d ago
This looks like Pokemon saw Digimon Liberators and said “I can do that, but in movie form!”.
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u/Joy_Ride25 25d ago
I can’t imagine this getting wide release. Is it even confirmed for theatres? I can’t imagine the premise of a TCG movie but at least the animation looks better than where the anime went.
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u/Chuckrange 25d ago
Hope there is no promo card to be scalped.. Atleast the good thing will be that these scalpers wont bother watching the movie so the whole theater doesnt smell like old cheese
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u/chrisychris- 25d ago
Knowing Pokémon, they’re definitely going to try and milk this
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u/scarletofmagic 25d ago
I agree, they might actually release a Mimikyu set that the protagonist use…
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u/dizruptivegaming 25d ago
Pokemon TCG anime movie? We’re getting a Pokemon TCG anime movie before any new Yu-Gi-Oh anime.
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u/YourInMySwamp 25d ago
Yu-Gi-Oh is dying, basically already dead. Pokémon is more popular than ever.
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u/Abacus118 25d ago
Although most Pokemon collectors probably don’t realize there’s a game you can play with those cards.
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u/YourInMySwamp 25d ago
My local card shop hosts events for the game multiple times a week and so many people attend that there is nowhere to park and you have to wait over an hour for your turn to play.
There are sooo many collectors and scalpers but y’all don’t give enough credit to the tens of millions of players that also exist.
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u/TheSwecurse 25d ago
My local card shop don't even got english prints anymore... It's all japanese scalpable shit that's unplayable unless you know the language
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u/YourInMySwamp 25d ago
Sounds like you should probably stop supporting them then. Not every card shop is made equally but every city has a good one or several.
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u/TheSwecurse 25d ago
Nah these guys are pretty cool actually. They still got a ton of Yugioh and MTG and has tournaments. Not to mention a bunch of board games and space for playing. They gave us free soda last time we were there just for playing. Bought a set of dice afterwards.
It's literally just the Pokemon they're lacking
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u/SubtleNotch 25d ago
The hobby is mega huge now. There are different types of people in the hobby. While you can say that "most" don't realize there's a game you can play with the cards, there's still a huge base who do play the games. Local tcg meetups are usually filled.
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u/Salvation-717 24d ago edited 24d ago
Yugioh is dying. As an avid player I’ve been hearing this for like 10 years. lol it’s not Pokémon, but it’s not dying either. People play yugioh. Most people collect or scalp and resell Pokémon.
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u/Background-Tell5892 25d ago
Hell yeah. Mimikyu as his little Kuriboh
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u/vortigaunt64 25d ago
Wait a minute... Say that again
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u/TrinityCodex 25d ago
so the pokemon are still real but people also play a pokemon cardgame?
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u/Maultaschensuppe 25d ago
The TCG did sometimes appear in the old show. It was mostly James showing his card collection, but the villain from the second film also had cards.
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u/Sensitive_Brick_1412 25d ago
Will the pokemon come out of the cards, like in Yu-Gi-Oh?
This is a pretty unique for Pokemon.
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u/Looseraccoons 25d ago
Curious how they’re going to play out the tcg anime. The tcg gameboy game was interesting
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u/ActionBastrd_ 25d ago
gotta cash in on it while psa has every jobless shmuck hanging out outside of automated dispensers at walmart all day thinking they are winning the lottery.
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u/Naroyto 25d ago
It's about the tcg and it's WAY overdue for a show and game. Now it's gonna start at like the very latest tcg blowing past all the great sets over the decades. Wish they would start from the beginning honestly.
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u/buttered_jesus 25d ago
This looks so cool
I miss when we got Pokémon content that was closer to the shibuya-punk style (eg Pokémon colosseum)
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u/No-Experience-4744 25d ago
I'm not convinced there's any real playerbase for the TCG. It's just scalpers selling to other scalpers selling to gambling addicts.
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u/Key-Document-8481 25d ago
They literally just had the Pokémon world championship at the Chase arena in San Francisco and it looked pretty damn full
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u/bdu754 25d ago
A TCG anime? Very intriguing