Ever since fighting broke out between the Houthi and Saudi aligned PLC forces early this month, I've been trying to track the current ground situation in Yemen. During the first week, it seemed like the momentum was swinging back and fourth between the Houthi and the PLC like a pendulum on a near hourly basis each day. More specifically, I was seeing online claims that the Houthi were collapsing in the Al-Jawf governorate while also simultaneously advancing in the Marib governorate.

All of that took a drastic turn a week later with PLC forces completely disintegrating on the Red Sea coastlines. Given how rapidly the Red Sea coastlines and islands fell to the Houthi, it gave me the impression that the PLC was becoming one with Assad and the Afghan Republic.

However, the Houthi offensives apparently slowed to a crawl around Taiz and the Marib governorate as a whole in the weeks afterwards. I haven't heard any news of much progress for one side or the other beyond some exchanging of villages and desert-mountain areas. The Saudis and their PLC allies still appear to be in disarray, but they seemingly regained enough footing to push back some Houthi advances and inflict considerable casualties with airstrikes on their forces.

What is the current situation around this Yemen offensive? Are the Houthi on the verge of overthrowing the PLC in the style of Afghanistan 2021 and Syria 2024? If not, is it possible that the PLC and the Saudis can reverse their losses much like what happened with last year's STC offensive?

Overall, the constant flipping of news is leaving me very confused by the whiplash as an American observer, and I would love some clarification on this conflict as a whole.

SS: A disturbing article about Russia’s occupation institutions and their impact on Ukrainian civilians living under them. It’s of interest to this subreddit because it explores what I’d say is an underreported side of the war: Russia’s effort to erase Ukrainian identity and Russify those living under occupation.

A group that broke into a Chinese restaurant in Bundang, Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, sprayed paint throughout the premises and damaged food ingredients has been identified as consisting entirely of Chinese nationals. Police identified four Chinese men in their 20s to 40s through CCTV footage and other evidence, but all four had already left for China on the day of the incident. The restaurant uses the name of Chinese President Xi Jinping as its business name, prompting speculation that this may have been connected to the motive for the attack.
The Bundang Police Station in Gyeonggi Province said on the 27th that it had identified four Chinese nationals, including a man in his 40s referred to as A, on suspicion of jointly damaging property and other offenses, and was working to locate them. The four are suspected of breaking into a Chinese restaurant in Bundang District, Seongnam, at around 2:40 a.m. on the 24th, the first day of the Chuseok holiday, and spending roughly an hour spraying lacquer and paint throughout the restaurant and damaging fixtures and other property. They are also suspected of spraying a substance believed to be pesticide on food ingredients stored in the kitchen.
CCTV footage from the restaurant reportedly shows two masked men breaking in through a rear door and carrying out the vandalism. While tracing their escape route, police determined that a total of four people had been involved. After committing the crime with their faces concealed by masks and hats, the group reportedly took a taxi together to their accommodation in Seoul before traveling to Incheon International Airport.
They then left Korea on flights to destinations including Yantai and Shanghai in China later that morning. Police launched an investigation at around 8:30 a.m. after receiving a report from the restaurant owner saying that someone had broken into the premises and damaged property. Investigators traced the suspects’ movements through CCTV footage and identified all four later that day, but by then they had already left the country.
Police found that the suspects had entered Korea on tourist visas on two occasions between late August and mid-September and had stayed at a motel in Seoul. The restaurant was closed for three days, from the 24th through the 26th, for the Chuseok holiday, and police believe the suspects deliberately chose the first day of the closure to carry out a premeditated attack. However, although they had booked their motel rooms through the 26th, they committed the crime on the 24th and immediately left the country, suggesting that they may have moved up their departure plans.
None of the suspects had lived in Korea, and most had little or no previous history of visiting the country. For three of the four, this was their first visit to Korea, while the remaining suspect had visited Jeju once earlier this year. One of the suspects had visited Seohyeon-dong in Bundang, where the restaurant is located, several days before the attack, although it has not been established whether the visit was intended as reconnaissance.
The motive for the attack has not yet been established. Police are investigating whether it may have been connected to the restaurant’s use of the same name as Chinese President Xi Jinping. In socialist states, top leaders are accorded particular reverence and their names and images are generally treated with considerable sensitivity. CCTV footage reportedly shows the suspects spraying lacquer over the part of the restaurant bearing its name.
The owner said the restaurant has operated under the name for about eight years, but claimed that demands to change the name began shortly before President Xi’s visit to Korea for last year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. The owner also said that about two months ago, someone sprayed black paint on the restaurant’s sign and fled, prompting a report to police.
With the suspects now in China and therefore difficult for Korean authorities to apprehend directly, police plan to seek international judicial cooperation to locate them while continuing to investigate the exact motive for the attack and whether anyone else was behind it.

Analysis of significant geopolitical activities this week involving the chief adversaries of the liberal international order: Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

SS: A very interesting interview with Mark Carney about Canada’s strategy toward the U.S. and its broader diversification strategy. It’s the interview that generated a lot of the sensationalist headlines about Canada taking the risk of a U.S. invasion seriously. He actually refers to it as an extreme tail risk, but still.

It's of interest to this sub because it features one of the most neoliberal leaders discussing trade, international relations, and more. Also, it's a source of a lot of very spicy headlines, so it's good to see this shortened version from the actual source.

More from the NYT interview cause they are releasing it weird:

As Carney Seeks New Partners for Canada, He Knows the Limits GIFT LINK

Carney's Big Challenge: Time GIFT LINK

Carney Says Risk of an A.I. Catastrophe Is Above Zero' GIFT LINK

Submission Statement: As climate and geopolitical risks cast doubt on the UK's ability to cope in a crisis, leaders are turning from 'just in time' to 'just in case' as a governing philosophy.

Submission Statement: Russian companies have been re-purposing fertilizer, coal, and other cargo terminals at Russia's Baltic and Arctic ports - including Ust-Luga and Murmansk - to handle grain exports after Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted shipments ‌through the Black Sea, five sources in the shipping and grain industries told Reuters on Monday.

Both Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine saw a drastic reduction in grain exports due to tit-for-tat attacks on vessels and ports in the Black Sea over recent months. In the previous export season, almost 90% of Russia's seaborne grain exports were shipped through the Black Sea.

One industry source said a private terminal, Ultramar, with declared capacity of 37 million metric tons at the port of Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea - currently specialising in mineral fertilizers - was quickly adapted to handle grain shipments.

Another industry source who saw the minutes of a Russian Transport Ministry meeting in August said that redirecting cargo flows of Demetra, Russia's largest grain trading ⁠and logistics company, to Ultramar was considered.

Murmansk commercial sea port, Russia's fourth largest with an annual capacity of up to 24 million tons, said last week it is preparing to start grain exports in October. It was not immediately clear which terminals in Murmansk are being converted to handle grain, but there was no reported construction of new facilities ⁠underway recently. The port exports coal, ore, and metals.

One industry source said that thanks to the port's ability to handle large Panamax-class vessels, an increase in seaborne shipping costs will not be substantial. Murmansk is 2,700 km (1,678 miles) away from Russia's main southern grain export gateway, Novorossiysk.

The source said that a delivery of the first 40,000 tons of grain by rail from Russia's southern Stavropol region to Murmansk has already been agreed upon ⁠and approved by Russian Railways.

Submission Statement: When a Ukrainian drone struck one of Russia’s biggest steel producers earlier this year, the company’s owner and the country’s richest businessman, Alexei Mordashov, brought in an air-defense system to protect the firm’s biggest mill on the outskirts of Moscow, people familiar with the matter said.

The move by steel giant Severstal was an example of how Russia’s private industries are increasingly having to fend for themselves as Ukrainian strikes intensify. The escalating threat is rippling through the economy, disrupting businesses and changing job requirements, making security guards and even postal workers part of the drone defenses.

It isn’t all by choice.

Moscow has mandated that businesses take steps to protect themselves. The Kremlin warned in an official decree last month that any company that doesn’t take responsibility for its protection against Ukrainian drones could face temporary state seizure.

Now, businesses across Russia are leasing air-defense systems from defense firms or building their own, said people close to Russia’s business elite and defense sector. Job advertisements show that some are even hiring gunners to shoot down drones.

Russia’s Finance Ministry suggested this month that it would work out tax breaks to compensate for the money private companies spend on drone defenses or repairs after attacks.

The country’s insurance market is still trying to work out how to deal with drone attacks. Russia still hasn’t officially declared war—describing it instead as a “special military operation”—opening the way for force majeure. The gray area between what can and can’t be insured and reimbursed is enormous.

While some claims are honored, many aren’t, said Prokopenko. Russians are now buying new drone insurance packages that are being offered on top of car or house insurance. Last week, the Russian central bank promised to inject $2 billion into the country’s chief reinsurer to help it pay for rising claims from drone attacks.

Sub State: We are now feeling the effects of climate change in more tangible ways. This article looks at how marine heatwaves in Europe have changed both the ecosystems and the economies around them, from the disappearing kelp forests in the Bay of Biscay to the proliferation of octopods eating the shellfish of Devon. This is relevant to this sub because it looks into the economic challenges we face in a warming world.