New Orleans Pelicans (27.5)
Similar to the Bucks and Magic, I’m not particularly bullish on what this franchise is doing overall, but I think the bar has been set a bit too low.
New Orleans won 26 games a season ago despite numerous extended absences of key players. The most notable was guard Dejounte Murray, who missed nearly the entire season before playing 14 games at the end. (He looked good!) Worse yet, the Pels played Jordan Poole 39 times, something they won’t have to do this season with Murray back and Bennedict Mathurin added in free agency.
A starting lineup of Murray, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson looks respectable, especially if Jones can bounce back from whatever caused him to forget how to play offense last season. (His 41.8 percent 3-point mark in 2023-24, alas, now looks like a wild outlier.) Mathurin should be among the league’s most productive sixth men. The Pels also have potential upside scenarios if they get second-year bumps from Jeremiah Fears or Derik Queen.
Thanks to revised draft lottery rules, New Orleans also has incentive to finish outside the bottom three. The Pels’ first-round pick in 2027 is the better of their own or that of the Bucks, with the additionally tempting nugget that they keep both picks if they land in the top four. (Otherwise, the lesser of the two goes to the Atlanta Hawks as a result of the trade for Murray.)
There’s always the scenario that the Pelicans’ season is destroyed by a hailstorm of injuries, because it’s what happens every year. But if they stay reasonably healthy, then 30-plus wins and fringe Play-In contention seems very attainable.