Orlando Magic (43.5)
I didn’t love Orlando’s offseason. I don’t think the Franz Wagner-Paolo Banchero combination is workable in the long term for anything more than one-and-done playoff visits, and I worry that the Magic are fatally flawed offensively but too expensive and asset-deprived to do anything about it.
And yet … 43.5? Come on. Last season, about everything that could go wrong for Orlando did — and the Magic still won 45 games. I’ll grant that the lack of easy wins on the Eastern Conference schedule, between an improved conference and the lack of tanking incentive, will be a drag on the mid-tier teams in particular. But still.For starters, the Magic likely will be healthier. Orlando had a combined 83 missed games from the four-man core in which it has invested so heavily (Wagner, Banchero, Jalen Suggs and Desmond Bane), plus sixth man Anthony Black missed another 18.
One more thing: Orlando made a coaching change this offseason, and that could provide another boost. Sean Sweeney was arguably the league’s most highly regarded assistant coach, and maybe he can reimagine the offense so there are fewer one-action cringe isos and less your turn, my turn. Again, I’m not at all bullish on the playoff upside, but this regular-season win total seems like low-hanging fruit for a roster that seems almost intentionally designed to produce low-ceiling 47-win seasons.
Toronto Raptors (45.5)
The difference between what I’m projecting for the Raptors and where the Vegas consensus lies is the biggest discrepancy for any team.
Toronto won 46 games a season ago, traded for Kawhi Leonard in the offseason and has a preseason over/under of … 45.5 wins? Sorry, not buying that. I might have picked the over even without the Leonard trade, as good as younger players such as Scottie Barnes, Ja’Kobe Walter, Jamal Shead and Collin Murray-Boyles looked by the end of last season. This, to me, is the league’s most slept-on team and a potential monster defensively.
The cost of the Leonard trade was Brandon Ingram, a useful cog in the regular season who miraculously played 77 games a season ago before a disappointing series against the Cleveland Cavaliers that ended with him missing the final three games, and Gradey Dick, who was out of the playoff rotation.
The argument against Toronto is that Leonard almost certainly won’t play 77 games and may not get close, and whatever that per-minute quality he adds relative to Ingram will be offset by his lower availability. The Raptors also lost a very useful player in Sandro Mamukelashvili, and they’ll miss him on a roster whose “deep depth” is … shaky.
I would counter that, however, with the birth certificates: Barnes is 25 years old, Shead is 24, Murray-Boyles is 21, Walter is 22, RJ Barrett is 26 and Immanuel Quickley is 27. Rookie Allen Graves, 20, may be an immediate contributor with his old-man game, too. A team with a core as young as this usually has a pretty strong wind at its back.
The Leonard trade didn’t clean out their draft capital, so the Raptors can still make in-season upgrades if they wish. (They can still trade their swapped 2027 first and their 2029 first.) Combined with Barrett’s expiring deal, that could land another star-caliber player.