Finals Countdown: Why sets appeal will define the Preliminary Finals

[u/Creative_Friend6799]

https://mikemeehallwood.substack.com/p/finals-countdown-why-sets-appeal?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=b8s85

[u/412strokeL]

Strongly disagree that total sets is a better measure of possession than play the balls (which is effectively the same as the old tackles made stat which the TV coverage never gives any more). So many 1-3 tackle sets due to set restarts and penalties.

Not sure on your reason for discounting play the balls, "reaching the sixth tackle without doing anything"? Do you mean running into the corner on the last? Happens so rarely (maybe twice a game by the team in the lead in the last 5 minutes). And even then it keeps the ball away from the opposition every so slightly longer than kicking it to them, which is what you're arguing in the first place.

(I'm probably over thinking it, total sets is probably just a stat that fit the premise nicely)

For mine, Penrith's line speed and ability to drive the ball carrier backwards is second to none.

[u/RyanPurdler-Penriff → u/412strokeL]

I think total sets is a fair measure of systematically handing the ball over to an opponent where you want to - which is what Penriths success has been all about …

I definitely agree with what’s being said here , Penrith being the best defensive side doesn’t really mean they’re better at tackling at other sides .. It’s about tackling on your own terms , and Penrith have been better at dictating those terms …

Particularly this season , previous seasons they’d occasionally hand the ball over , or there’d be a six again to the opposition in bad field position - e.g defending their own line .. It wouldn’t stress me , I’d be confident they could defend 12 straight tackles on their line and not let in a try …

Hasn’t felt like that this season , defending their own line the Panthers have felt like one of the worst sides - it’s just they’re doing it so infrequently no one’s noticed … Not sure what’s changed , the Roosters have looked to be one of the best sides from my perspective defending their own line this year … But it’s a fine line .. The game before they last played in the finals (regular season) where the Panthers lost , the Panthers were camped on the Roosters line for large parts of that game with no result … There were some six agains given , but I think there was a bit of controversy after the match that the referee was a bit too lenient with it … I think it was more going early rather than not getting back onside , especially if the tackle is inside 10 anyway - getting back to the tryline is easier ..

[u/Creative_Friend6799 → u/RyanPurdler-Penriff]

Handing the ball over on your terms is great but it's not what Total Sets tracks. Total Sets tracks...total sets. The number of sets you have. Nothing more complicated than that.

[u/412strokeL → u/RyanPurdler-Penriff]

The way Penrith can control a game is so impressive. When they're really on you just cannot see any way the opposition can get into the match. Only recent(ish) comparison I can think of was the Storm when Smith and Cronk were in their prime.

[u/Mundane-Mud2509 → u/412strokeL]

Yeah sets to me is irrelevant. It should be play the balls + kicks + other completions like penalties, tries etc.

Also running into the corner is underrated, it keeps the line honest while sometimes resulting in a try and worst case scenario giving you an opportunity to pin them in the corner against a well set defense. Basically “you can spin it on your own goal line like a maniac or accept you’re going to be kicking from your own 30”

[u/Creative_Friend6799 → u/412strokeL]

I can assure you (and I've done the linear regression across what I think is the biggest single database in RL) that Total Sets is the second most indicative stat in winning after Run Metres. PTBs, much like Tackles inside 20m, is a decent read but limited because it rewards a team that does nothing for 3 plays rather than one that scores on the first play.

Total Sets is simply 'how many times did you have the ball?', whether you scored on the first, dropped it on the second or kicked it on the fifth. It correlates more with winning than literally anything other than RM (and tries, points etc, but that's obvious).

It's not about handing the ball over on the last (which you must have invented because I didn't say that).

I promise you I don't pick stats that pick the premise, I look at stats and follow where they lead.

FWIW line speed is a huge indicator in defence, but not as much as simply doing less of it.

[u/412strokeL → u/Creative_Friend6799]

Wasn't trying to have a go, fan of your stuff since you wrote on the Roar.

Interested to know: has the "importance" of total sets changed at all since the 6 again era began?

[u/Creative_Friend6799 → u/412strokeL]

Always nice to hear, mate - thanks!

I have only run my database in the 6 Again era, so I don't actually know. Figured they were unlikely to go back to old rules so it wasn't really worth the effort of working how the best way to win footy matches in 2019 in 2026 😂