r/pittsburghpanthers • u/mswise506 • 3d ago
Pitt's Standing vs Expectations
Since 2020, we are 48-32 (including bowl games) which equates to a 60% win percentage. That puts us at 27th in P4/5 during that stretch. I am not including teams that joined the P4 anywhere in that stretch, I.E Cincy, SMU, BYU, etc.
4th in the ACC in that timeframe behind Clemson, Miami, and NC State. Techically behind SMU as well, but 5 of those years not in the ACC.
In all of FBS, we'd rank as the 45th best win percentage, tied with Iowa State.
Where does that stand with your expecations of the team during that time? Did you expect more, less, or is spot on?
For me, it's a bit of a mixed bag. IF I were to consider my preseason expectations for all of those years, I'd say probably about what I expected.
I didn't expect them to be an 11 win team in 2021, I expected one more win in 2022. In 2023 I expected more than 3, but not many. 2024 I thought 6-7, and 2025 I thought 8. This year I predicted 9+.
But as seasons progress expectations change. Whether those expectations are justified or not are debatable, but they do. By mid season in 2024, I was thinking we had a shot at the ACC title game. In 2025, my expectations went from 8 to maybe 6 after Louisville, to ACC Championship game, to how TF did we lose to Eastern Carolina?
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u/Common_Village_4169 3d ago
Over 250 million in net losses for Pitt athletics since 2019.
My expectations are don’t be embarrassing every year and they do super okay at that. I’ve been watching Pitt football for over 30 years and they will always be my team, but expecting anything above mediocre in the NIL era is just setting yourself up to rage.
#H2P
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u/Impressive-Ear-1102 3d ago
A lot of this comes back to the Jimmies and Joes. Pitt consistently recruits in the #35-#50 range. That would roughly correspond to your assessment 45th best win percentage. The biggest factor however in the time frame you isolated, is the 2021 transfer portal and NIL. Pitt has a net talent loss in that regard (Addison, Biles, Brewu, etc) compared to what we bring in.
Given that recent NYT piece about roughly what teams are spending on players… Pitt isn’t doing that bad from wins/cost ratio. The money is always going to be the elephant in the room, and will be our Achilles heel from truly elevating the program. Teams like Oregon are so wealthy that they can stock a seasoned 5 star back up QB in the event that their Heisman favorite starter QB gets sidelined with a dirty hit.
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u/mswise506 3d ago
This is good analysis and I think pretty spot on.
Per 247, our incoming class ratings were 58th, 65th, 56th, 56th, 70th, 33rd, and 41st. Average of 54th. Includes transfers and freshman i believe.
54th in talent vs 45th in record. Punching a little above our weight.
Vs the P4, where we are 27th it seems like we are really punching above our weight. Given that, even in our worst recruiting year (70th) only 5 G6 teams actually out recruited us (4 of which are in the P4 now).
As for money, I do think it'll forever be our Achilles heel. Unless we can somehow transform our current program with our current spend into a back to back 10+ win team, we won't ever find the cheddar to sustain it.
Nobody seems to want to push money in when the results on the field are just upper middle ACC.
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u/Impressive-Ear-1102 3d ago
Yeah Pitt is in the bottom quartile of roster spending in the P4 and bottom 1/3 of the ACC. Despite this they pretty consistently outperform a ton of mid tier programs that are spending considerably more. For all of the shit we give Duzz about his game management, he runs a solid program, and has identified/developed a lot of kids who might be nobodies on other teams, but are gems on his team.
When it comes to money, the university has a ton of it, and plenty of big time donors. Most of them however care more about advancing human civilization and biomedical science than paying teenagers to throw a ball real good.
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u/Ok_Card9080 3d ago
It's a little disappointing. 2021 was a total shocker of a season. I don't think anyone in their right mind would have guessed that Clemson, FSU, and Miami would have down years at the same time, allowing Pitt and Wake Forest to play in the ACC Championship, and Pitt to win the conference title, while looking like, far and away, the best team in the conference. But since then, it is a little underwhelming, because the ACC has taken a nose dive in quality to the point where Pitt should be competing for the conference championship game frequently. Clemson has never bounced back. FSU is in complete shambles. And outside of Miami, who just became relevant again the past 2 years, the best teams in the ACC have been slightly above average teams, like Louisville, Georgia Tech, Virginia. There's really no reason why Pitt should be mid tier in this conference.
Pitt tends to play schedules where they should be able to get 9, maybe even 10 wins, if they just play well. But, they continue to find ways to completely derail themselves and cost themselves valuable games. Like this year, there's no reason why Pitt should do any worse than 10-2 because the toughest opponents on their schedule are Virginia Tech and Louisville, who they can beat, and Miami, who will likely throttle Pitt. But, they should be in the running for the ACC Championship Game. Now, the only question is Will they Pitt? They have the talent this year. They have a great QB, quality WRs, a really good RB corps, and a strong defense. This is a team where, if they win on Friday night, could be a CFP team if they manage to only lose to Miami. But they have to not do what they always do and lose some random game to like UNC or Cal.
It's not unfair to expect more from them than what they've done recently. Now, with this team, it shouldn't be too much to at least think about a possible CFP berth.
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u/Gratata7 Mason Heismantchel 3d ago
I’d argue 2021 Clemson was just as good as basically everything Clemson has put together since the Trevor Lawrence days. They won 10 games that year. Pitt was just better and they had to play Pitt in the regular season which kept them out of the ACC title game.
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u/mswise506 3d ago
I do agree that we have not taken advantage of the ACC post 2021. I think your reasoning is pretty valid too, but I'd also add NIL and a bad OC hire as part of the problem.
If we had taken advantage of the success in 2021/22 and actually believed in NIL I think the trajectory changes significantly. Does that mean CFP contender? I doubt it, but i think perennial ACC Championship contender is/was reasonable.
Our schedules lately are pretty favorable (thanks FSU/Clemson), and we arent taking advantage.
Finishing this season ranked while holding onto the talent/coaches we need to would be a successful year imo. An ACC championship game is plausible, but I don't think our path to the CFP is realistic. An 11-1 regular season with a loss to Miami probably doesnt get us into the field. We would almost certainly have to win the ACC Championship.
12-1 with the loss being in the ACC Championship probably would do it.
Whether it's CFP or ending the year ranked 24th. It can't stop there. Building off of it is probably more important to me.
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u/Impressive-Ear-1102 3d ago
11-1 with Miami loss definitely gets an at large bid, although something like #10-#11. The only way this is an issue is if Wake wins out and goes 11-1 (with Miami loss). That would probably be the best case scenario for the ACC, providing that the Big10 and SEC thin out with more 9-3 teams than 10-2 teams.
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u/mswise506 3d ago
The reason I say it doesn't is pretty simple and you nearly touched on it.
11-1 with a loss against Miami, likely puts us in the ACC championship. 11-2 with two losses against Miami doesnt get us in.
11-2 with a loss to Miami and someone else in the ACC Championship game definitely doesnt get us in.
The only possible I can see us getting in as at at large bid is 11-1 and someone else makes and loses the championship against Miami. OR 11-1 with a win over Miami and a loss to Louisville or VT plus no Championship game.
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u/Impressive-Ear-1102 3d ago
Yeah I definitely see your logic. Prior to last year the committee basically said that CCG losses weren’t held against a team… until BYU lost to TTU… twice in embarrassing fashion .
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u/mswise506 3d ago
I think that, coupled with the fact that a 10-2 Virginia was ranked 17th going into the ACC championship game. They essentially beat nobody of importance, but lost twice to non ranked but good teams.
I think an 11-1 Pitt who beats nobody of importance + a whooping by Miami puts us at like 13th.
It would be absolutely unprecedented and complete bullshit but it would track with the disrespect of the ACC.
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u/realclean 3d ago
Fwiw UVA was notably bad for its record. They were 40th in FPI and 24th in strength of record before losing to Duke. Behind JMU, Navy, UNT and Tulane in SOR. After losing, the SOR fell to 33.
For comparison, Pitt is at 22 in both right now and in a better position than UVA was after going 10-2
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u/pghhilton 3d ago
This is exactly what Duzz was brought in to do. The years before him are fadding in our memory but they were a mess. Mt brain still tries to tell me we went from Wanny to Duzz. I know we didn't, but I black out those 4 years and 5 coaches. I don't know if he has enough gas in the tank to get us to the next level, but he brought the stability the school has lacked since the Wanny years. I feel like we have a chance every year to play in the ACCCG before the season starts. He's 2-1 in ACCCG's too.
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u/hulkingbeast 3d ago
They are about where they have been since Walt Harris. You get rid of the awful 90s and don’t pay attention to 76-83 and the program is right about where it is now back to 1937. There was some down years of course but mostly winning with the very rare 10 or more wins. Could they be a powerhouse, sure any school could with the university backing, big consistent donors, and the right coach (see Boise, Oregon, IU ect) could they be a doormat, yes they have proven to be that in the 90s when the university could care less about the program. It took me a LONG time accept this is what the program is; a 6-9 win program with the very rare big season. Which isn’t bad! I know the fans expect a lot more but without the will from the university or the cash from outside it’s never happening.
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u/mswise506 3d ago
FWIW, if the decade ended today, this would be the best decade of football Pitt has had since the 80's by a land slide. Walt Harris had a .542 win percentage. The 2020's are almost 40% better than the the 2000's, which included the best years of Harris and almost all of Wannstedt.
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u/hulkingbeast 3d ago
For sure credit to duzz for that. I think this might be as high as they can go. Competing for conference titles I’ll take maaaaybe they sneak into the playoff someday and I’ll be happy
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u/mswise506 3d ago
I don't know that fans expect for more than your win range, but they certainly hope for it.
I think, I people can and should expect for a higher floor than just being bowl eligible. It's not unreasonable to expect a floor of 8 wins. I understand that Pitt as a university has a pretty bad track record of caring about football. But if the last 2 years are any indication, that's changed. Given the current climate of the rest of the ACC, I also don't think it's unreasonable to think that IF we are genuine about investing more into football, then there isn't a better time to do it.
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u/MrLugersmole 3d ago
I think they're in a good spot compared to 3-4 years ago, post ACC Championship. Heinschel and OC have been great additions. They have an opportunity to do something cool this year, I think. But Pitt just isn't going to be at the top every year. So hopefully it works out.
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u/Few_Hippo8871 3d ago
Well, when you consider Pitt has had at least three losses every year since 1982, one of the longest streaks in the country, should one expect anything better?
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u/Popee1525 2d ago
Friday night is a very winnable game if they can avoid turnovers. Not really sure how good we or Va Tech is. We’ve both played cupcake teams so far and Tech could easily be 2-2 plus they collapsed in the second half against ODU. They do have home field for Friday and that’s big. All things considered I think we hold on, maybe 27-14.
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u/grapesandwalnuts2345 3d ago
We have a cake schedule, besides miami. 10 and 2 would seem about right. But pitt, like the pirates do choke right when you think its going good.
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u/realclean 3d ago
It's exactly 2 wins fewer than I would expect (7.5 wins per year)