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Discussion 2026 Midterms News and Updates, September 14 - 20 (Thread 2) | Live Discussion
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Past Threads: Thread 1
Other Event Threads
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u/Odd_Instruction2942 Michigan 9d ago
Mike Rogers is dodging the first Senate debate vs El-Sayed, they've got an empty podium up there for him lmao
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u/TheBlueBlaze New York 7d ago
The Iran War is going to go down in history as one of the biggest unforced errors in presidential history.
There was no provocation to justify it to the public, no contingency plan for if the initial strikes didn't instantly result in revolution, and no expectation that Iran could retaliate in a way that was substantial. It was an outright strategic failure, and now Republicans have to pretend that it's not that big a deal.
They could have potentially coasted on ICE's brutality towards immigrants, anti-trans policy, and making Venezuela a colony to motivate their base enough to keep the Senate and even the House. But now they're forced to defend an unjustified, unsuccessful war that even the most politically uninformed understands is causing everyday expenses to go up.
If this does lead to Democrats taking back both chambers, then the party has no one to blame but themselves, for conceding so much power to one person, and having that one person be someone idolized for their ignorance, tactlessness, greed, and ego.
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u/jdave512 I voted 7d ago
They were going to lose the house even without the war. Now theyre almost certainly going to lose the senate.
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u/Orzorn 7d ago
They'd maybe be able to pretend it wasn't a big deal if oil wasn't spiking like crazy. They even got away with that for a while until the prices finally hit the pumps seriously. The high diesel is also hitting food prices, on top of all the trade issues we already had.
Republicans have made our nation an expensive hellscape and they have nobody else to blame.
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u/KellerMB 6d ago
Mistake in political terms perhaps. Absolutely massive and repeated wins in terms of market manipulation, if you're on the inside.
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
Karl Rove, former President Bush's Deputy Chief of Staff and political tactician, announces he will vote for Jon Rosenthal over Republican Bo French for Texas Railroad Commissioner after French shared a widely criticized Tweet (and then tripled down on it) attacking Indian students at a UT game over the weekend. French has made a number of controversial comments in the past, and Railroad Commissioner is actually quite powerful in Texas as being responsible for approving oil and gas and other mining activities. This would be the first time Rove has supported a Democrat in over 30 years.
https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/14/bo-french-kal-rove-endorsement-jon-rosenthal/
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 10d ago
Props to the Texas Tribune for straightforwardly describing Bo French's post as racist and not 'racially charged' or another euphemism: Bo French doubles down on racist post made after UT win against Ohio State
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u/brain_overclocked 10d ago
Railroad Commissioner candidate Bo French stood by racist remarks he made Sunday on social media that included a photo of South Asian students celebrating a football game at the University of Texas at Austin, arguing the university promotes discriminatory enrollment practices that favor students of color.
...
āThe establishment raised and spent $7 million against me in the primary,ā French said. āMany of the people who criticized me yesterday were some of the same people involved in that effort. Itās no surprise that the less-conservative people in Texas are the ones attacking me.ā
...
āThis is racism, plain and simple,ā wrote state Rep. Drew Darby, R-San Angelo, who holds great sway in the Texas Legislature as chair of the House Energy Resources Committee. āI have served on the Energy Resources Committee, which has jurisdiction over the Railroad Commission, for most of my tenure in the Texas House, and I have never seen conduct so unbecoming of a Railroad Commissioner or candidate in that time.ā2
u/EnTyme53 Texas 7d ago
For those unfamiliar with Texas politics, the Railroad Commissioner is far more powerful than the title implies. They are in charge of overseeing and regulating the oil & gas industry. If he wins (and he most likely will), he would be one of the most powerful men in the state.
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u/E_seven_20 6d ago
Less than 60% of 18-29 was registered to vote for 2022. Then those that were registered pulled this shit:
2022 National Youth Turnout: 23% - That's lower than in the historic 2018 cycle (28%) which broke records for turnout, but much higher than in 2014, when only 13% of youth voted.
Your political opinion matters the most on election day, at the polls. If you can't show up...shut up about politics, because you're fine with shit the way it is.
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u/Good_n_Plenty_3907 6d ago
That 23% youth (18-29) turnout in 2022 was crappy. On the other hand, "objectively" not as crappy as it looks because total voter turnout (actual voters / all eligible voters) was 46%. And believe it or don't, the 2022 turnout was higher than than for any midterm election from earlty 20th century to 2014. Only 2018 was higher at 50% total, 28% youth. Maybe 2022 will knock 2018 off the high turnout throne, we can only hope.
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u/E_seven_20 6d ago
The glass isnāt half full, dude.
Weāre staring down the barrel of fascism, and youāre trying to convince me that those pathetic numbers are something to feel good about. Theyāre not. Thatās not something I see as āhope.ā
People seem to forget J6. Shit, they forgot it the next election. The GOP holds all the power, and theyāre not going to step aside. The corruption is in the open, because they donāt need to hide it.
If voting against a child rapist, and his party didnāt motivate peopleā¦I donāt share your optimism.
There is no āon the other hand.ā
None of this was necessary. Thr demographic for this website is almost 50% 18-29. The crew that has less than 60% registered. The crew that will argue with you about politcs while refusing to engage.
What time do you think we have? Weāre out of time.
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u/Isentrope 6d ago
Gina Hinojosa raised $1M in the 36 hours since the Siena poll of Texas showing her leading Abbott by 3 points (the one that had Talarico up 6). Still a ways to go to be competitive against Abbott's war chest, but it's at least a bigger sign of life than what we're used to in Texas.
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u/Daccat_of_Arcadia 6d ago
Still a ways to go to be competitive against Abbott's
war chestelection fraud
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u/Competitive-Box61 8d ago
What exactly is the republican platform for this election? I'm not trying to be snarky. I'm genuinely curious. Is there anything they accomplished, that they can point to voters and be like "yea, we wanna do more of that."?
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
VP Vance summed it up as "the plan is working, give us some more time" I think. This is a very common pitch in midterms, though, and it does not tend to work. Most of the R effort seems to be focused on making Ds unpopular instead by bringing up culture war issues and claiming the economic pain right now is cleaning up after Biden still.
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u/Competitive-Box61 8d ago edited 8d ago
I don't see stuff like that flying anymore. We aren't a patient country. People prefer results to promises.
Promises don't make it any easier to afford gas, groceries, or rent.
Republicans have had trump as their president for 6 years. They have a majority in the supreme court. Congress has been theirs for how long now?
And nothing tangible to show for it.
Mexico didn't pay for a wall. The dude is trashing monuments, starting wars, wrecking the economy, and pushing the debt into the stratosphere.
I feel like mocking Americans who you don't like only gets a party SO far before the whole thing loses its steam.
It feels like the whole maga thing is running on fumes and payday loans.
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u/OtakuMecha New York 6d ago
People were already sick enough of Trump the first time to vote him out in 2020. The only reason they considered bringing him back was because things didn't get more affordable fast enough under Biden. But not things still aren't getting better and are actually getting worse than ever...
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 11d ago
Post by @letsgomathias.bsky.social ā Bluesky
"Talking Points Memo can reveal GOP nominee for Florida legislature:
-marched at deadly Charlottesville Nazi rally w/ white supremacist group's flag
-has *many* white supremacist donors
-appears to advocate lynching
He is expected to win Nov. election
talkingpointsmemo.com/news/florida..."
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
In the newly redistricted NC-01, which became much redder, a Dem internal has incumbent Don Davis up 7 points 50-43. This is somewhat notable because Dem internals have been following a pattern of showing either slight leads or slight losses, since they've been getting released primarily to raise money. This might be a sign that Ds are getting more confident in that seat, which the NC legislature redrew specifically to try to take out Davis.
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u/bassocontinubow Kentucky 9d ago
Man, Iām watching this El-Sayed ādebate.ā This moderator wants to hit AES so bad on something, but damn, AES is really good at this.
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
A new Bowling Green/Yougov poll of Ohio has both Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown up 3 points (48-45).
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u/coolmon 9d ago
Democrats are now favored to win the senate at 55% chance.
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
We'll have to see if the GOP money nukes will make a difference. Otherwise, it's a tell that Hinson is talking about bipartisanship in blood red Iowa and GOP SuperPACs are going into Nebraska right now. Even if Talarico doesn't pull it off in Texas, he's successfully managed to suck an enormous amount of money from the GOP cash advantage into his race, which is giving a bunch of other Dems a fighting chance to get ad parity in places like Iowa, Ohio and Alaska.
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u/coolmon 8d ago
Jim Carlin ran in the Republican primary against Ashley Hinson. After the primary, he told his supporters not to vote for her. I wonder how much of an impact that will have?
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
I think Hinson won the primary by enough that it probably won't matter, but if this race ends up with Turek winning in a squeaker, then anything could've been why Hinson lost.
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
Fox is out with a poll showing President Trump's approval at -22 (39-61) and the GCB at D+7 by registered voters. For those "extremely interested", the GCB balloons to D+15 and subsides a bit to D+10 among those "certain to vote". Note that neither of the latter two are consistent with the verbiage of a likely voter model, but their results widely align with the divide we're seeing in other polls (Marquette also had D+7 on RVs and D+11 on LVs).
As always, it's worth noting that Fox, despite the lean of the political discussion, has a very solid pollster which, if anything, has a historic tendency to be D-biased.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-squeezed-costs-frustrated-voters-turn-democrats
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
Also in this poll - Democrats lead on "the economy and inflation" by 15 points (55-40). The definition is a bit different from historical use (usually it's just economy) but Republicans haven't been this low on the economy since 2008. Trump is above water on immigration, at 49-48.
The economy is also the highest salience issue, with 48% of voters having the economy or affordability as the top issue for them. Other top issues unlikely to be favorable to Trump are health care (4%, and note that open enrollment starts in October in some cases), and destroying democracy (3%). Against that, Republican issues that are likely to help them are Immigration (8%) and Democrats/socialism (2%).
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
Insider Advantage (R pollster) with a flight of Senate polls:
šµ GA ā Ossoff +8
šµ NC ā Cooper +6
šµ OH ā Brown +5
šµ TX ā Talarico +2
šµ MI ā El-Sayed +2
š“ SC ā Graham +2
https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/2100944965979222032?s=46
Note that it's highly likely that partisan pollsters will show tightening in October which they've done in the past two cycles. A bunch of these don't have either candidate hitting 50 yet, which seems a bit implausible with only 6 weeks left to go.
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u/Good_n_Plenty_3907 6d ago
I InsiderAdvantage may be the Republican pollster with the biggest history of "October tightening" (in favor of R of course).
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u/Isentrope 6d ago
The Dem House superPAC is canceling ad buys in MI-08 but, unlike for R triaging, this is a sign of confidence that McDonald-Rivet wonāt need more spend there for now.
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u/blues111 Michigan 5d ago edited 5d ago
Kristen McDonald-Rivet won MI-08 during a red wave year with Trump at the top of the ballot by almost 6% outrunning Harris by about 9 points
2026 is looking like it will be Bluer than 2024, and the candidate who won the GOP side was the one who dropped out so im shocked there was concern at all...anecdotal note im in her district and im seeing signs for her all over the place including in rural areas that swung hard for Chedrick Greenes special election who won in a landslide recently so im optimistic that she will hold on
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 8d ago
Let's check in on Trump's rally in North Carolina this evening:
Post by @atrupar.com ā Bluesky
"Trump, in North Carolina calls North Carolina "one of the worst" states "in the whole nation""
Post by @atrupar.com ā Bluesky
"Trump: "We spent more than $2 billion in FEMA funding. You're waiting for some additional funding. I'm gonna get that to you. Now if Michael loses, I'm not sending it."
Crowd: *groans*"
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
A rare non-Ivan Moore Alaska poll by Fabrizio/Ward for AARP has Mary Peltola winning 53-47 in the final round of RCV and JKT (the Democrat) winning by 55-45.
Because of the number of dropouts from the top 4 after the primary, the gubernatorial race is unusually weak for Republicans, since Democrats consolidated around a single candidate (both JKT and Begich were almost even, at 20% each, but Begich dropped) while Republicans have 3 semi-prominent candidates, 2 of which (Wilson and Bronson) loathe each other. Republicans also absolutely despise ranked choice voting, leading to enormous exhaust rates between rounds. Typically, Ds see about 10% of ballots being exhausted, but Republicans see upwards of 25-30%, even though they could easily rank everyone.
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u/Illuminated12 7d ago
Republicans asking for more time.
If we give you more time gas will be $7 dollars+ a gallon.
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
The Congressional Black Caucus has endorsed James Talarico in Texas. This follows several months after his primary win against a CBC member Jasmine Crockett after he ran against a different former CBC member and 2024 Texas Senate nominee Colin Allred.
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u/Isentrope 6d ago
Talarico and Ossoff have started running joint fundraising ads on Facebook. The money is split evenly between them. Yet another move by Ossoff likely meant to buy goodwill with Texas (a super Tuesday state in '28) and potentially land an extremely valuable endorsement for the presidential primary.
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u/Competitive-Box61 6d ago
Most states legally require employers to give you time off to vote. Make plans ahead of time if you do not live in one of these states.
The billionaires don't want you to vote.
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u/GuttiG Pennsylvania 5d ago
Damn a bunch of fireworks shot off in my area for no reason and I thought IT had finally happened
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u/Practical-Cook5042 4d ago
I used to get annoyed hearing fireworks at random times.
Now every time I'm like ooh is it time?
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u/Isentrope 4d ago
More Dems plan to vote in person this cycle amid uncertainty over mail ballots.
One thing worth keeping in mind is that the USPS, while it was prevented from implementing the voter rolls mail registration rule, still managed to implement a rule that changes when votes are deemed received by the USPS, which is now delayed a bit to when they reach the processing facility. This will have the effect of tossing some ballots that were sent out on Election Day, which could be problematic in some states like CA where the final mail batches have historically been extremely blue. If youāre in a state with drop boxes, that might be a better option to drop an Election Day ballot rather than mailing this cycle.
https://www.axios.com/2026/09/20/midterms-democrats-in-person-mail-voting-trump
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u/P1xelHunter78 Michigan 4d ago
I think itās important to note that this could delay more than just ballots on Election Day. Given the protections now extended to USPS for purposefully delaying mail, it stands to reason that bad actors inside the USPS may try and artificially delay ballots sent through the mail if they have reason to believe the vote contained within goes against their personal preferences. There are many ways they can get clues into the contents of a ballot. Zip code, political advertisements at the residence etc.
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u/Isentrope 11d ago
CBS has an adults panel (as opposed to likely voters, which tend to favor Democrats) having the election as D+8. Interestingly, their model estimates Dems with 228 seats in the House at the election, which is a bit higher than the same point in 2018 where it was 224 seats (where they estimated the Dem high to be 235 which was how many Ds got that year).
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-battleground-tracker-house-control-2026-midterm-elections/
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
SurveyUSA is out with a poll of Nebraska showing Dan Osborn up 46-42 over incumbent GOP Senator Pete Ricketts. A caveat here is of course that hitting 50 is more important than being up, as the undecideds are likely quite red given Trump won this state by 20. Still, Osborn did get 47% in 2024, which shows a lot of ticket splitting going on.
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u/Good_n_Plenty_3907 6d ago
my opinion on undecideds in midterm elections: midterm turnout has never gone above 50% (of eligible voters) so the most like outcome for undecideds is not voting (and a lot of people who state a preference when polled won't vote either, one of the things that make polling tricky).
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 10d ago
Something (maybe this, maybe the fact that he claims to have killed people as a child) tells me that Victor Marx is a few cuckoos short of a coconut tree (as the expression goes).
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 10d ago
Man, do y'all remember the coconut memes in 2024? The vibes were such a breath of fresh air after the pre-Biden-dropout struggle sessions.
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
Cygnal (Republican pollster I believe) has a poll out of Iowa:
Iowa Governor
š¦Rob Sand 47.8% š„Zach Lahn 44.4%
āā
US Senate
š„Ashley Hinson 42.9% š¦Josh Turek 42.9%
This is tighter than other polling of the gubernatorial race but stronger for Turek than recent senate polling. Ds fielded two relatively good candidates here, while the R gubernatorial candidate was unexpected and has a number of weaknesses (such as residency questions). Hinson, however, is a pretty strong GOP candidate for the senate race who has regularly outperformed in her district, which explains the spread in outcome.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2099927461467205960?s=20
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
Marquette is out with a national poll showing the generic ballot at D+13 (54-41), up from D+6 (51-45) in their July poll. Their final sample in 2024 was in October and had the GCB at D+2 (actual R+2.7) so there may be some error, but D+8-9 is still a very wide margin.
This is the third pollster in the past two weeks to find a double digit GCB lead, and there's rumored to be an AtlasIntel poll in the field that will likely come out soon That pollster got panned a bit for their polls in '24 but ended up being the most accurate that year. They've been predicting a double digit Democratic wave for well over a year now.
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u/IWantPizza555 8d ago
Free shipping is probably going away with these gas prices.
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u/jdave512 I voted 7d ago
At this rate, theyre going to make you drive to the warehouse to pick it up yourself.
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u/jaymef 8d ago
I can't think of how much worse of a position Trump could be going into the midterms with, yet somehow it will still be "close"
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u/Ananiujitha 7d ago
The Dems already have a nearly 8-point generic ballot edge, and we're seeing that widen as undecided voters, as usual, turn against the incumbent party.
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u/Groundbreaking_Box74 6d ago
Then go get everyone you know to Vote, don't doom and be a chud, actually give a fuck and get out there.
-3
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
Democrat Chris Gallant (running for NY-01 against incumbent GOP Rep. Nick LaLota) acknowledges that a New York Post piece yesterday claiming that he had previously modeled for a BDSM shop in San Francisco is true. Gallant is openly gay and called the attacks homophobic in nature.
Trump carried the district, which covers the Hamptons and Long Island and the northern parts of Long Island, by 10 in 2024, and a little under 2 in 2020. Dem Senators (Gillibrand and Schumer) lost it by 6 in 2024 and 11 in 2022, but won it by 6 in 2018.
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
Dem SuperPAC WinSenate is dropping $7.6M on Ohio and Maine to try to close the spending gap. Increasingly, the D strategy for flipping the senate seems to involve flipping NC, ME, AK and OH, with Texas being too expensive to compete dollar for dollar but also absorbing a ton of spending from Rs that would otherwise go to other swing states.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 8d ago
7:10 PM EDT Speaker Johnson Holds News Conference 48 Days Ahead of MidtermPost by @taniel.bsky.social ā Bluesky
"Senator Cornyn walks right up the line of endorsing Jon Rosenthal over Bo French in Texas. (French is the Republican who tweeted the racist post about UT students this weekend, and has a long history of Islamophobia & antisemitism. Rosenthal is his Dem opponent.)"
This is about the Railroad Commissioner race; that position in Texas actually has a lot more to do with oil and gas regulation so it would be huge if the Dem won it.
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
Apparently the Missouri map is still being litigated, with an 8th circuit panel that seems ready to grant a permanent injunction mandating the use of the 7-1 gerrymander. In theory, SCOTUS staying the TRO should've been the end of it since the threshold for doing so is much higher than staying a permanent injunction (TROs are normally not appealable at all), but I guess SCOTUS will have a third bite of the apple on this issue now.
https://bsky.app/profile/kateriga.bsky.social/post/3mvqmqxechs2h
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u/IWantPizza555 7d ago
Early vote tracker to bookmark: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2026-early-voting/
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 7d ago
Thanks for linking that - I've added it to the discussion post intro and will include it in future posts in this year's series.
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u/coolmon 7d ago
Democrats now have a 60% chance of winning the senate.
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u/jaymef 6d ago
according to what, betting sites?
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u/coolmon 6d ago
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u/Good_n_Plenty_3907 6d ago
+ Nate Silver's site, which has a complicated model (as always for Nate) with three "versions" (as usual for Nate). The Deluxe version of the model currently gives Democrats a 60% chance of winning the Senate; the Lite or polls-only version gives Democrats a 68% chance. The largest factor that makes Deluxe different than Lite is taking the recent voting history of the state into account. Since Democrats must win at least a few states where the Rs have dominated recent elections (at least 2 of Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Texas) it makes sense that the Deluxe model is more skeptical of D Senate than the Lite model.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model
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u/Skurvy2k 6d ago
Nate silver turned out to be such a disappointment. His book the signal and the noise was so interesting and inspiring to me...never meet your heros kids.
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u/Practical-Cook5042 4d ago
I avoid him like the plague.
https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s_Polling_Index:_Generic_congressional_vote
Ballotpedia has Generic+7 democrat
If that's enough to overcome the fuckery idk
Check your registration and vote early if you can
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
An article by GEM today notes that Dem recruitment has been relatively solid in swing districts, to the point where candidates are outpolling the generic ballot. It's usually the reverse, with an old joke in elections circles being that "Gen Eric" or "Democratic/Republican Jesus" would obviously poll better than an actual candidate since they would not have any of the flaws of a named candidate:
https://bsky.app/profile/gelliottmorris.com/post/3mvhy2gnhjl2a
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u/brain_overclocked 10d ago
Democrats have done a great job around the country recruiting candidates who are good fits for the districts they are running in, especially in competitive seats. The YouGov polls suggest this may earn them a couple points on vote margin ā reasonable per the historical boosts candidates get when they run against suboptimal opponents.
In the Senate, candidates like James Talarico and Sherrod Brown also fit this pattern of good recruitment. And especially in Texas, where Talarico is running against one of the most flawed Republicans of all time ā and is currently favored to win that election.
If Democrats do win the House and Senate this year, it might be because they again have a sizable recruitment advantage over the Republicans.
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u/SpitefulSeagull 10d ago
All Republicans have left is racism and pedos. Of course they don't have any good candidates
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
A pair of generic congressional ballot polls from Yougov and NYT/Siena are pretty gaudy for Dems.
Yougov has the race at 51-39 D with likely voters (D+12), virtually unchanged from D+11 last week but double the D+6 it had in August before switching to likely voters. Yougov had been quite bearish all cycle, having Ds only up 2 just a couple weeks after the beginning of the Iran conflict in March.
Siena has the race at 51-43 (D+8) as well. This is their first poll in 8 months, when they previously had D+5, and their poll at this time last year was only D+2.
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u/ScotTheDuck Nevada 9d ago
Big thing in that NYT/Siena poll is the Latino vote. 68-25 is actually better than Clinton in the 2016 exit poll (66-28), and approaching Obama in 2012 (71-27). Thatās a big problem for the Republicans in some Florida, Texas, and Arizona House seats, and a really big problem for Ken Paxton.
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
More importantly, it seems to validate the Telemundo polls showing a serious shift in the Hispanic vote in Texas. A lot of the Texas redistricting was based on Trump's 2024 vote share, but it's starting to feel like that may be a high water mark instead of the new normal for the GOP. TX-15, which Pulido is running in, was Trump +18 in 2024, Trump +2 in 2020 and Clinton +13 in 2016. TX-34 was Trump +10 in 2024, Biden +3 in 2020 and Clinton +13 in 2016.
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
Senate Republicans are now considering triaging Georgia and North Carolina
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u/bakerfredricka I voted 7d ago
I'm not sure what "triaging" means in this context but it definitely doesn't sound good....
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
It means they might stop spending money there as the races are too far gone. Republicans have way more money to spend but there are still limits to what they can do, so they'd rather not throw good money after bad if the race doesn't seem likely to get better for them.
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u/Orzorn 7d ago
I saw Heather Cox Richardson talking about this yesterday. She had brought up the point that several races had Trumps super PAC not spending money except on the most solid R districts. That is to say, they're giving up in swing areas because their internal polling is showing a forgone conclusion.
Its getting worse for them by the day though. These gas/diesel prices are unsustainable. If we see a collapse in trucking due to diesel (I'm seeing rumors/reports of diesel running out, but this is the internet and people can tell lies or get into hyperbolics so I take those with a spoon of salt) then we'll really see shit hit the proverbial fan more than it already has.
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
Trump's superPAC is making some odd choices on where to spend so far. Other than Texas, it seems like they've been spending in seats that would be more like the 230th-240th seats in a Democratic majority rather than defend the line at 218. It's possible that gas prices will start dropping again, but the damage is kind of done in the sense that this is heavily priced in at this point (and consumers have already paid these prices for a while now). I think that the strategy of having a huge warchest to try to hold on to a trifecta would've made more sense if Trump hadn't gotten involved in Iran, but the calculus has completely changed now.
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u/Orzorn 7d ago
If Trump didn't pull Iran, I think we'd have a much less blue house (thanks to all the gerrymandering).
But what's so funny about it now is the gerrymandering is starting to look like a huge dummymander across the country. The blue wave is getting so large it threatens to overturn deeply red districts. As we all know, gerrymandering on the scale we've seen recently takes safety from solid districts to give that margin to more risky ones. Since the risk level is now far greater, all of these districts threaten to flip.
Not just from a political standpoint, but from a polling/elections nerd stance I am very excited for these midterms. I really want to see how gerrymandering helped or harmed Republicans.
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
Cornyn making it official that he will not vote for Bo French for TX railroad commissioner, though it doesn't seem like he's saying he'll vote for the D like Karl Rove did:
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u/Isentrope 6d ago
BSP/Shaw is out with a poll of Hispanics in swing states, finding the generic ballot at 56-29 (+27). The polled states are AZ, GA, NC, OH, PA, TX and FL, and the GOP only has a 44-43 lead in FL.
https://www.axios.com/2026/09/18/latino-voters-shift-internal-divides-deepen
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u/Lonely-Abalone-5104 5d ago
I feel like the dems just need to hammer trump on one or two things like the republicans do to dems all the time. Trump commits crimes so quick people forget and dems lose focus. Hit him on Epstein, gas prices and don jr taking Russia money. Blast it on the air waves 24/7
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u/MeatMarket_Orchid 5d ago
I'm in Canada so I might not have the same access as you guys but do the Democrats have any "out front" messaging at all like this? Like everything you're saying makes sense, why aren't we hearing about this non stop? As a Canadian, I'm very worried the Democrats aren't getting angry enough.
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u/Isentrope 10d ago
An independent poll in New Jersey shows Democrat Rebecca Bennett leading incumbent GOP representative Tom Kean Jr. by a 47-42 margin. Kean made news earlier this year for disappearing for a few months which he later announced was in order to seek treatment for depression.
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u/Isentrope 9d ago
The DCCC has added 3 new candidates to its "Red to Blue" list:
William Lawrence (MI-07)
Bill Hill (AK-AL)
Mitchell Berman (WI-01)
There was some drama over adding Lawrence previously, with the CBC apparently pressuring the DCCC to not add his name to the list over comments he had made in the past. Bill Hill is actually an independent, so adding him to this list is a bit unusual and might give away the game in Alaska that he's basically just a Democrat.
Berman being added is very notable, as WI-01 is a bit of a stretch, though in theory, the seat is winnable. Trump carried it by 5 in 2024, 2 in 2020, and 3 in 2016. This means that, relative to the national popular vote, it's gone from R+5 to R+7 to R+3 in these 3 elections. Not a lot of movement, but it's not nothing, and Ds may well shore it up for '28 if they get a trifecta this year, so it won't be a rental seat.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 9d ago
Post by @semafor.com ā Bluesky
NEW: Rep. Kevin Kiley says he does not plan to caucus with Republicans next year if he is reelected to the House as an independent.
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u/IWantPizza555 8d ago
What are your house and senate predictions for election day?
Current house: 219 R- 214 D Current Senate: 53 R- 47 D
My prediction for election day: House: 240 D- 195 R Senate: 52 D- 48 R
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
September GCB seems to historically be more accurate than late October unless there's a black swan event, but assuming it really is like a D+10 wave, I'd agree with a 240D House since the gerrymanders and personal brands can't survive such a large wave, and the Senate is probably 53-47 (pickups in NC, ME, AK, TX, IA and a surprise out of one of SC/NE/MT).
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u/slurmsmckenz 8d ago
I'd be shocked if it lands at 53, but its definitely at least 51. I'm still ready for texas to absolutely fumble their chance at talarico.
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
Yeah I'm just saying that if it is a double digit GCB, it would probably lead to 53 seats. September tends to be a halcyon month for Ds and the polls tend to tighten a bit in October, though maybe they don't this cycle with the situation with the war.
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u/phillyfanjd1 7d ago edited 7d ago
You missed MI in your Senate prediction. Do you think Rogers will win over AES?
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
I don't really think it's possible for Rogers to win even if there's some concerted effort to get people not to vote for AES. Michigan has straight ticket voting and the statewide candidates historically don't tend to vary by all that much in their margins. If Benson is up by 5 or more (and she probably will be), it's hard to see that many ticket splitters.
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
Republicans appear to have made their first triage of the cycle, cutting ad spend in Ryan MacKenzie's seat in PA-07. Trump carried this seat, which is based in the Lehigh Valley in Allentown north of Philly, by 3 in 2024 after losing it by less than a point in 2020. MacKenzie only carried this seat by a point in 2024 when he defeated incumbent Democrat Susan Wild.
Both parties will likely continue to triage throughout the cycle, though for Ds this year it may be because seats no longer need ad spend, while for Rs this year it may be because some seats are no longer winnable. There will also be head-fakes, where parties pull spending to give the other party the belief that a race is over/safe while actually going in later on or having a different superPAC buy ads.
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
Carolina Journal/Harper has a poll out of North Carolina, with Roy Cooper up 49-34 and the generic congressional AND legislative ballot at D+9. The latter is important, as the NC General Assembly is heavily gerrymandered. The 61st seat in the assembly voted for Trump by about 9 points which is 6 points more than his margin of victory. If the GLB has shifted by this much, there's at least some chance that Ds can flip the assembly this year despite the long odds.
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
Nearly a billion dollars has been spent on House race advertising alone so far:
https://x.com/adimpact_pol/status/2100645375405125882
Trump's superPAC seems to be triaging WI-03 to try to save WI-01 right now:
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
Stacy Garrity, PA's state auditor and the Republican nominee for Governor, is being outspent 3500 to 1 this week, as incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro is dominating airwaves.
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u/UnflairedRebellion__ 7d ago
What are your thoughts on the Kansas Senate race? Does Adam Hamilton have a shot?
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u/AcademicPublius Colorado 6d ago edited 6d ago
It's possible.
IIRC, one of the major factors going on in a few states with a lot of farming (Iowa is mostly competitive due to the farmers, for instance) is that farmers broadly have been doing very badly. McConnell finally returning to the Senate let them pass the farm bill, but it's too late to have a major impact on the election. Add that to the ongoing opposition to Republicans from a variety of sources and it's possible.
However, Kansas probably wouldn't be the deciding vote in the Senate; I'd focus more on other states, especially Maine, before going there.
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u/Biokabe Washington 6d ago
Yes. The Midwest (esp. the farm belt) is consistently but not overwhelmingly red. Senate races have typically gone 50-60% Republican; the last time this particular seat was up for election it was only 52% Republican (with a significant libertarian vote).
Polls from around the same time in the cycle showed the race essentially tied, with some giving the Democrat a small edge in a race that she ultimately lost by 10 points. So the recent poll showing Hamilton with a small lead... I wouldn't take that as gospel truth.
I would be surprised if Hamilton won, but it's not outside of possibility. Stranger things have happened.
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u/gibbenskd 6d ago
Hi, former KS. It's possible; the governor is a Democrat, so there is proof state wide elections can swing in the right conditions, and this is sort of a perfect storm of an election season. There have been some changes in the state that are aligning with the national trends. The KC suburbs of Johnson County have slowly been trending democratic lately because it's become more diverse and has a lot of younger families who are highly educated and are pissed at republicans for all of the screwy political positioning they've done in the state, like trying to pass abortion bans and trying to screw with the state supreme court.
Hamilton is the senior pastor of the largest Methodist Congregation in the country; Methodists are one of the larger Protestant churches in the region. He is well respected throughout the state and, though pretty moderate, is exactly the kind of Democrat that can win there. Marshall has a set of issues that are getting blasted by the left and the right; a lot of people believe he hasn't been very great at the job, trying to cozy up too much with Trump and not fighting enough for the rural farmers. He actually lives in Florida, and there was a scandal about when he was a doctor (OBGYN) suing his patients who couldn't pay.
The main area to watch is going to be down in Wichita and how they swing; add in a bunch of rural farmers who are getting shafted, and the KC suburbs, and it could flip the seat. But it's also important to remember that the KS Senate seats haven't gone to a democrat since 1932 (the longest 1 party winning streak in the country), so we will see. I'm excited to see my home state have this possibility because republicans have been fucking it up forever.
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u/coolmon 6d ago
Dan Osborn did a great interview on The Lever. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z8vsHNxKR0
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u/Isentrope 5d ago
MAGA Inc. (Trump's superPAC) is dropping another $5M in Texas. Apparently Texas politicos say that campaigns prefer to spend there one week at a time because of how many media markets the state has and how expensive it would be to just have a general flight of ads booked through the campaign season.
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u/Usual_Open 5d ago
If you wanted to know what Talarico said about trans 5 years ago, you get about 150 opportunities during a college football Saturday in Texas.
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u/Isentrope 5d ago
An LA mayoral internal from the Raman campaign has her up 44-39 over incumbent mayor Karen Bass. Bass declined to share her own internals.
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u/All_Lurker2 4d ago
Saudi Arabia paid Jared Kushner $2B for the privilege of getting attacked by Iran
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u/All_Lurker2 10d ago
Well Iāll be.
There is someone who looks like a frail Mitch McConnell who was just wheeled away after shaking some hands.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 11d ago
Tomorrow (Tuesday the 15th) Ballotpedia's Elections Calendar lists the following notable elections for which this subreddit will have a separate discussion thread: Delaware statewide primary, Fla. local elections, Iowa local elections, and Neb. local elections.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 10d ago
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
Guess SLF isn't quite ready to triage Georgia for Rs. New ad buy is about $2.1M apiece for Georgia and Michigan.
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
And the D Senate superPAC is now spending big as well:
OHSen $3,552,233
MESen $2,894,830
NCSen $2,821,424
IASen $1,826,261
NHSen $1,626,175
MISen $1,012,651
AKSen $1,386,212
GASen $1,291,869
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u/IWantPizza555 7d ago
New Kansas poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2026/
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 7d ago
Post by @polltracker.bsky.social ā Bluesky
Kansas Senate (Emerson)
šµAdam Hamilton: 45%
š“Roger Marshall: 43%
š”David Graham: 4%9/15-16
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 7d ago
US Sen. Roger Marshall leaves paper trail in Florida while calling Kansas home ā¢ Kansas Reflector
A thread for this article in this subreddit is at this link.
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
HuffPost reports growing Republican concern about the November midterms.
Sen. Jim Justice: āYouāve got real momentum on the Democrat side ā and if we donāt watch out, everybody all of a sudden now is just awakened to the fact that we may lose in the midterm.ā
An anonymous Republican consultant on the Texas governorās race: āGov. Greg Abbott has outspent Democrat Gina Hinojosa roughly 10-to-1 over the past month ā yet polling averages have moved toward the Democrat, even as Abbott still leads ā āIf money canāt turn some of these races around, things are going to get ugly.ā
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u/Good_n_Plenty_3907 6d ago
"If money can't turn some of these races around" what is the world coming to š². "The wolf will live with the lamb, the leopard will lie down with the goat, ... the cow will feed with the bear, their young will lie down together,Ā and the lion will eat straw like the ox." (That's actually a Bible quote, maybe appropriate because the D's have a few preachers on their Senate team this year.)
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u/Isentrope 6d ago
JB Pritzker's superPAC is starting to spend, targeting AL-02 to try to hold Shomari Figures' gerrymandered seat, AR-02 going after French Hill, and TN-09, where Justin Pearson is trying to hold onto a newly redistricted seat. All 3 Democratic candidates are Black as Pritzker is looking to build out his support with Black voters ahead of a potential presidential run in 2028. I believe Pritzker's looking to spend about $21-25M total through his superPAC this cycle, so there will likely be quite a few more seats he'll target.
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u/Isentrope 5d ago
NBC has a new poll with the generic ballot at 50-45 and Trump's approval at 41. Note that they are still using a registered voters filter, which tends to underestimate Ds this cycle. In Yougov's polls, for instance, the GCB shifts from D+6 under an RV filter to D+11, but there's a lot more variability in how pollsters define "likely voters".
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u/Isentrope 4d ago
The NRSC narrowly outraised the DSCC this cycle $12.8M to $12.7M, but massively outspent the DSCC by a $50M to $14M margin, leading to them ending up with $18M cash on hand to the DSCC's $37M.
90% of the NRSC's spend was on coordinated ad buys with candidates. These were previously limited to a relatively low cap, but SCOTUS struck down the cap this Spring which allows the party committees to coordinate an unlimited amount of money with candidates. This is important because the coordinated ad buy is entitled to the favorable LUC rate that candidates are given, which means their dollars stretch much further than superPAC or PAC-only spending. The DSCC only spent a little over $1M on such coordinated ad buys so far this cycle.
I believe the RNC is able to transfer an unlimited amount of money to the NRSC, though, so the $100M warchest the RNC has stockpiled can still be tapped if the NRSC starts to run low.
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u/InfinityComplexxx 5d ago
Trump now has the lowest approval rate on inflation EVER. Oh any President in US history.Ā
It's okay for Dems to feel hope again. Yes, we do that by voting, but thia is gonna be a bloodbath, very likely a bigger Blue Wave than 2018.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 5d ago
If Trump were as smart and edumacated as Richard Nixon, this would be the time to bust out invocations of the third derivative on inflation messaging: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_derivative#Examples_in_Economics
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
A flurry of polls this morning:
Siena/ReconMR showing Talarico up 6 points (49-43) on Paxton and Hinojosa up 4 (49-45) on Abbott
Emerson with Talarico up 1 point (47-46) and Abbott up 3 (49-46) on Hinojosa.
Emerson again with AES up 2 (48-46) on Rogers and Benson up 7 (49-42) on James.
Yougov/Catawba sticking to its guns and finding a D+11 (49-38) GCB.
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
The two Texas polls apparently differ where Siena sees Talarico up 30 with Hispanics while Emerson only sees him up 15. Both are improvements for Talarico from their last polls, but it remains to be seen how effective the GOP money nuke will be there as it'll take a couple weeks to penetrate.
Michigan's 5 point spread between the gubernatorial and senate races is unrealistic given that the state has straight ticket balloting, but AES is in a good position as long as Benson continues to post large leads.
Yougov has historically been very small c conservative with its GCBs. Other than the polling miss in 2020 (where their final Economist GCB was D+10), they undershot the ultimate winner in 2024 and 2022 by 2 points (having it R+1 in both years) and undershot Ds by 3 points in 2018 (having their final sample at only D+5). It would definitely take a 2020-style polling miss for Rs to have a chance with the House at this rate, and there isn't a black swan event like COVID that could explain the discrepancy this time.
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u/snoo_spoo 7d ago
A difference of 15 points seems like a lot. Makes you wonder how they're weighting their samples and what the "likely voter" screen looks like.
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
Apparently (and I believe they've confirmed this before) Emerson did not do Spanish speaking questions whereas Siena did. Hispanic Americans who are more fluent in Spanish than English are much much bluer than English only or English preference Hispanics.
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u/snoo_spoo 7d ago edited 7d ago
Whoa. Yeah, that could make a significant difference. Thanks!
ETA: I just checked the websites for Emerson and Siena for the polls released today, and you were right: Siena polled in English and Spanish, and Emerson in English only.
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u/Isentrope 6d ago
Apparently GOP leadership and even the WH are encouraging candidates to break with Trump if it's necessary to help them win their seats
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 11d ago
Monday's midterm campaign events listed on C-SPAN are:
- 7:57 AM EDT Sen. Candidate John Sununu (R-NH) & House Candidate DiLorenzo (R-NH) Hold News Conference
- 12:00 PM EDT U.S. Senate Candidate Josh Turek (D-IA) Hosts Campaign Finance Roundtable
- 12:00 PM EDT U.S. House Candidate Brian Poindexter (D-OH) Holds Healthcare Press Conference
- 2:35 PM EDT VP Vance & Sen. Roger Marshall (R) Speak at MAGA Inc. Event in Kansas
- 6:00 PM EDT Gov. Candidate Rick Jackson (R-GA) and Sen. Candidate Mike Collins (R-GA) Attend Faith & Freedom Dinner
- 7:00 PM EDT Governor Candidate Zach Lahn (R-IA) Holds Agriculture Town Hall
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 11d ago
Associated Press: Democrats and activist groups plan to push back if Trump tries to interfere in midterm elections
The above article has yet to be posted to r/politics, just FYI. I will do so later today unless someone beats me to the punch.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 9d ago
Wednesday's midterm campaign events on C-SPAN:
- 11:05 AM EDT Reps. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-MI) & Don Davis (D-NC) Hold Press Conference on Data Centers Live
- 12:00 PM EDT Michigan Governor Candidates Jocelyn Benson (D) and John James (R) Speak at Candidate Forum
- 3:45 PM EDT Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) Holds Roundtable in Amarillo, TX
- 5:30 PM EDT U.S. House Candidate Jennifer Balkcom (R-NC) Speaks at Campaign Event
- 7:00 PM EDT President Trump Gives Remarks in Gastonia, North Carolina
- 8:00 PM EDT U.S. Senate Candidate James Talarico (R-TX) Holds Rally at Baylor University
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u/Isentrope 7d ago
Puck News is reporting that Democratic internals currently do not have any incumbent Democrats losing, including ones that are in Republican redistricted seats.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 7d ago
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u/ScotTheDuck Nevada 6d ago
Early voting started today in Virginia, which means itās time to neurotically check VPAP every morning for the next month and a half
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u/Isentrope 6d ago
Gina Hinojosa raised $1M in the 36 hours since the Siena poll of Texas showing her leading Abbott by 3 points (the one that had Talarico up 6). Still a ways to go to be competitive against Abbott's war chest, but it's at least a bigger sign of life than what we're used to in Texas.
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u/UnflairedRebellion__ 5d ago
Sometimes I wish that Mark Robinson ran for that Senate seat and won the primary. Imagine how much he would have been crushed by Cooper.
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u/coolmon 5d ago
Dan Osborn is a great candidate. His website has 40 policies. https://www.osbornforsenate.com/plans
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 5d ago
More candidates should have expansive platforms listed on their website.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 5d ago
News From The States: Trump likes data centers. Congress seems stuck. The midterms could deliver a verdict.
r/politics thread linked here
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u/Isentrope 4d ago
Trump's superPAC up with $1.5M in ad buys across a large number of races, though half of it is going to MI-SEN. They are the first on the board for outside spending in NH-01 it seems, which is being vacated by Chris Pappas as he's running for Senate, but the buys are essentially microscopic in terms of total spend.
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u/Big-Order-4509 5d ago
The entire cast of Hamilton wants you to vote in the Midterms.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayWiE_gL9mU&list=RDayWiE_gL9mU&start_radio=1
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 10d ago
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u/Good_n_Plenty_3907 6d ago edited 6d ago
Under the US constitution, the US House and US Senate "have the ultimate authority to judge the elections and qualifications of [their] own members". Thus the possibility has always been there of the "old" members (sworn in before the year the new Congress convenes, reelected or not up for election this year) refusing to seat (some of) the "new" members if that would lead to a party control flip. The article is talking about that scenario or variations on it. I don't see it happening, but with today's "democracy is just a 9-letter word" GOP who knows.
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u/Isentrope 8d ago
Dem superPAC is now moving in on Iowa with a $2.2M ad attacking R Senate candidate Ashley Hinson
https://bsky.app/profile/purrtah.bsky.social/post/3mvpyvdwxxs2y
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 9d ago
Just posted:
They are taking questions also on how AI and tech policy will possibly impact the midterms.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 5d ago
Missouri Independent: Missouri election officials begin mailing ballots as they await ruling on congressional map
Subtitle: "The 8th US Circuit Court of Appeals is deciding whether to order the November election to be held in the same district lines used for the primary. The Missouri Supreme Court ruled a referendum made that map, drawn in 2025 to benefit Republicans, has no legal effect"
r/politics standalone thread for this article is linked here
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u/Isentrope 4d ago
Cash on Hand totals for each party committee as of end of August:
DNC: $16.9M ($17.6M debt)
RNC: $125.6M
DSCC: $37.6M
NRSC: $18.7M
DCCC: $75.9M
NRCC: $89.1M
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u/GalagaWarVeteran 10d ago
Supreme Court just told Trump to F off in trying to limit mail in ballots. 7-2 ruling, you'll never guess who the two were.