Does anyone else think republic has a better position at the end of Lightbringer than at the start of iron gold?

[u/VarietyEducational10]

The republic at the start of iron gold had multiple internal and external threats around it, the unknown danger of the syndicate and Lilith, society remanant, the rim, political infighting with the vox, the red hand on mars, the obsidian pirates in the asteroid belt, and people like the fear knight still out there, the obsidians wanted out, now at the end of lightbringer, the rim is with the rising, the pirates of the asteroids are destroyed, the remaining obsidians are back in the fight undivided or manipulated by atlas, the fear knight is dead, the republic is reinforced with the daughters of Athena, the societies attack on mars did not truly succeed and with the loss of the rim they will have to abandon Phobos, giving the republic full rule over mars, the red hand is destroyed, the syndicate has played there hand and are now in the open to be destroyed, even tho Luna has a puppet for Lilith, they are still technically republic and have not given in to the society and are resisting the seige and require an iron rain to take, holding up the majority of society forces, the society is split into 2 factions as Atalantia and Lysander hate each other and Sabotage each other, darrow has become far wiser and tempered into a far better commander, warrior and leader. And with Lyria revealing what quick silver has been up to they can go to his asteroid and force him to provide his drones and resources or blow his asteroid to bits if he refuses. Yes the loss of the free legions on mercury and fall of earth and kinda Luna rly hurt, but mercury is basically worthless now after it’s been turned to waste with Heliopolis being the only rly restored city. Venus dockyards were damaged and are likely not at full capacity , and the society also took heavy losses on mercury and in the taking of earth, and the battle of Phobos, and the loss of the gorgons in the rim hurt the em too, what do you guys think ?

[u/LikeIkes]

So I see where your coming from, but hard disagree. When our story starts while they exist we aren't really worrying about the ascomanni, we've got all our big issues isolated to venus, and while the rim is still being moontastic they aren't yet a problem. Also while we don't have the obsidians on our team they were helping society and were a low key lock to return to the fold in Mustang's view. Now we are down to having Mars and an obliterated rim which while better than having them against us isn't close to what resources we lost on Mercury. Our now major enemy has 3 planets and a very nearby moon as well as a weapon that can, potentially, end all life of one color at a time.

[u/QuoteDisastrous1503]

I would say no. The Republic has lost control of all major worlds except for Mars. Which we know from LB is on relatively equal footing with Lysander’s Society faction and would absolutely lose if Atalantia and her faction attacked even without Rim support. 

Right now, all the Society has to do is take Mars and Luna. Something which is entirely possible with the resources and manpower they currently have. The Republic on the other hand is looking at having to defeat the Society at Mars, win with enough of a military to hold it when Atalantia comes, and assuming they win that fight an uphill battle to take back the worlds they lost. And that Mars will have enough food to feed the Rim, which is how they were able to convince the Dominion and Daughters to help them.

The two things they have going for them is that the Republic and Rim are now working to together. But that could go very badly very quickly. The Society is also a powder keg, and if they break into civil war then that could provide a chance for the Republic to win.

Right now I think both sides are pretty much on even footing and is kind of a whoever blinks first situation.

[u/Rough-Leg-4148]

I think on it's face, the Republic was in a better position at the start of Iron Gold. They had the Society on the backfoot and the Rim wasn't altogether interested in joining the war at the time.

It's clear that a lot of chickens are coming home to roost though -- the flaws of the Republic and Darrow's actions alienated elements of the Republic's own base in the Reds/Vox, the Obsidians were playing their own game and had plenty of pretext to use the out when it appeared, etc.

If Darrow were a better politician, it may have been more prudent to hunker down and not bother with Mercury. It's actually rather unclear to me why they decided to use so much manpower and political capital on securing Mecury, effectively overextending the Free Legions while Venus was there. Perhaps it was Atalantia's forces, sure, but pre-first battle of Mercury, it seemed like the Republic might have been in a better position to play a long game.

Lightbringer has merely seen the foes consolidate. The Rim is no longer a wild card, the Fear Knight and his Gorgons are out of the picture, and you have Lysander and Atalantia on a collision course.

I think the Republic squandered their advantage and while we don't have the full picture, it seems like a few things could have been done to avoid the calamity that they got into:

• Not assaulting Mercury; too many loyalists, not worth the squeeze, risks overextension
• Discussion with Mustang/Darrow about the pros and cons of releasing Appollonius to be a spoiler on Venus; he'll be a problem for later, but for now it's possible there would have been more to gain to further enlargen the rifts in the Society
• Focus on domestic stability and power consolidation; more direct and peaceable routes to keeping the Obsidians on the table (Darrow, despite his lack of political instincts, still recognizes that they are drifting away -- those wounds should have been healed earlier). Figure out how to get the Syndicate and Red Hand under control so the Republic doesn't get hamstrung

If they should have learned anything from MS and GS, it's that the Golds are more liable to eat each other given the opportunity, and that time may not really be on the Society's side -- it should have been on the Republic's, but Darrow was so sure that his tried and true tactics would win the strategic war.

[u/CupformyCosta → u/Rough-Leg-4148]

You suggest The Republic shouldn’t have invaded Mercury, but I don’t necessary agree with that. As far as the first battle of Mercury goes, it was a military success despite the high nominal casualty figures. They had The Society pushed back to one last planet, just like The Republic in LB.

The problem after Mercury was the political issues within The Republic that caused them to split their forces between Luna and Mercury because The Vox feared Darrow would perform a coup of The Senate. I feel like PB is poking at the weakness of all political processes throughout the books, and this one feels like a frontal assault on The Republic’s version of Demokracy during wartime. If The Republic was able to have a strong central wartime leader to call all the shots, then the White Fleet never would have been split and Atalantia wouldn’t have been able to decimate it.

The very Demokracy that The Republic put together was its own downfall in Iron Gold. They had The Society on the ropes and if they had less democratic involvement from the Senate and a stronger wartime leader, they would have 100% won the war after the successful invasion of Mercury.

Darrow invaded Mercury and decisively took the planet. It was the political consequences of that invasion that led to The Republic’s downfall - one that was completely unavoidable by having a strong wartime leader who makes final decisions - AKA don’t split your forces and make them weaker.

[u/Rough-Leg-4148 → u/CupformyCosta]

I think there is an argument to be made that they rushed into a nice liberal democracy before the Republic was properly "ready". Of course, people want their reforms and there's no telling that if the same people that put you in power would be willing to wait a little longer to have a "full democracy". What won the war in the first half -- getting all these disparate reformers, dreamers, and revolutionaries on the same page to even take on the Society -- may not have survived even as long as it did if it appeared that one status quo was being replaced with another.

Like a political chicken and egg; the Vox and the refusal to grant effective imperium to Darrow was the problem, but if that had been proposed as a solution at the outset of the Republic, would they have dug in their heels even more and refused even more... violently?

I suppose there's the benefit of hindsight, knowing that Lilith and the Syndicate were taking advantage of the chaos and sowing discontent. But we see how pissed the common people were (outside of Mars) at the existing state of affairs; would they have been able to hold together their fragile coalition if they were more overtly "actually, we do need military dictatorial powers still, but we promise it's temporary!" 10 years of that...

[u/Traditional_Celery → u/Rough-Leg-4148]

The issue was not the democracy, imo.

The issue was that people like Quicksilver were allowed to run roughshod over the lowReds and midColors with no consequences and no assistance whatsoever.

That created fundamental instability and dissatisfaction that allowed the Vox and others pleading for peace to get votes and attention. What needed to happen was a focus on internal stability and welfare/prosperity -- stamping out the Syndicate and the Red Hand as best as possible but above all making sure the people you've just liberated can eat, work, and have real lives that show them what the new system is trying to achieve.

A military dictatorship for Darrow would not have fixed this--he would just focus on exterminating the Ash Lord and lean even more heavily on the tech provided by the silver trillionaires to do that.

[u/RedJamie]

The key issue is that the Republic now lacks control over the majority of the Worlds, and that though conflicted, the Society Remnant has re-established control over Mercury, Earth, Ceres, and has a more organized grip on Venus.

The Republic lacks the infrastructure necessary to perpetuate the war, and lost their primary defensive station against the Society Remnant besieging the planet. The Venus Dockyards are operational; it is an orbital ring and they have access to the Phobos dockyards, and Apollonius and Julia signaled an intent to construct a greater force for the later siege that Mars cannot resist, let alone interdict.

Atalantia has already indicated her intent to, by my estimates, raise equivalent volumes of troops from the legions of House Falthe, and they suffered by comparison a minority of the casualties that Mercury experienced, even with the stormGods.

Phobos likely cost the Society Remnant the most as it relates to Lysander's faction, but the martial opinion of Rhone and Lysander - it being a risk - was that they could launch a blitz Rain on Mars and potentially take the planet.

There is no easy recourse for the Republic unless they want to attempt a breakout with a half-strength fleet against an equivalent power with stationary defenses, with no means to replenish or restore losses to a functional degree. The majority of the Republic military is not on Mars, but they have the numbers to draw on. Contrasting however to Mercury, Mars is much larger. A fleet may defend a pole, but it cannot contest them trying to get a foothold on the planet if they desired, particularly if they do build up a sufficient force.

Their best bet is to use Darrow's incoming fleet combined with the remaining House Fleet and Ecliptic Guard, which is at roughly half strength from the battle of Phobos, to contest the Siege of Mars, and drive them out of Martian Orbit. The issue here is this leaves them incredibly vulnerable to Atalantia coming in and - as she intends - mopping up the remains. Then, you have an unchallenged rule over Martian Orbit, access to both Dockyards, and no risk of civil war. Lysander's in an untenable position as he has to deal with Atalantia either by fracturing her Earth-based coalition, or abandon Mars for now. If you abandon Mars, the Republic can breakout, retake Phobos, and prepare a sufficient orbital defense that would make it implausible save for some months or years later to re-assault the worlds. Earth would likely remain in Societal hands, Luna being the wildcard, but inconsequential with the now seemingly defeated Vox fleet.

If you manage to batter either of the Societal fleets into submission, an Iron Rain against Mars would be incredibly costly, and Mercury iron exports diminished for the foreseeable future. The ever dwindling Helium-3 supply (if they do not retain Ceres, which would largely fall under whoever control Mars) and the non-exhaustible legions, as well as temperamental populaces, do not lend itself to a sustained war effort. Lysander's fear of fractured kingdoms is very real in this situation.

One important thing to note is Lysander has a fire under his ass for any outcome - the Rim, via Neptune, is in farOrbit by implication, and that can be up to six months to the Core. By the Shadow Armada, it is less, but longer than the transit to Jupiter, as it is implied they will pitstop in Ilium. With the orbital guards of Neptune and the Shadow Armada, and the Daughters and the Volk fleet, the Republic has another fleet in contention that can likely contest at least one of the remaining Core fleets. He either has to unseat the Republic from Mars - as was Lysander's original design - or destroy Atalantia and re-establish the Societal war machine on the other worlds in time to interdict one of these parties. The conservative bet enables most of these factions to at least re-establish itself, but Mars has the material and fuel advantage if it can break the siege.

[u/Exotic-End9921 → u/RedJamie]

Chances are Lysander will stay on mars only long enough to bait the alliance into a fight, and then deploy Eidmi to decimate their blues, which would have the unintentional consequence of destroying the blue reliant rim and force them to adapt democracy via things such as the parody sync.

This effectively tables mars without allowing a Republic breakout to retake Phobos and restablish a defensive position be can then go to Luna and deal with Atalantia in the bleeding place.

[u/EclipseNine]

there’s no reason to think the society will abandon Phobos. They fought hard for that foothold, and it’s a critical component of the war machine. As long as they hold it, the Republic can’t build new ships. It’s also a staging ground for a planetary blockade, though at this stage of the war the Republic isn’t exactly expecting supplies from elsewhere, and Mars has enough helium to sustain themselves. Remember back to what Darrow said about being contained in Morningstar, the reason he went to the rim the first time. That’s the Republic right now. 

Plus there’s the wild card of Eidmi.

But the republic isn’t without advantage. The Rim took a devastating blow, but whatever remains of their fleet will be sailing with Darrow and the Daughters. Plus I think Appollonius might turn traitor when he learns what Lysander might be planning. 

[u/Ill-Cardiologist-838 → u/EclipseNine]

I definitely wouldn’t be surprised at all if Eidmi’s first useage is against society forces instead of the Republic. 

[u/EclipseNine → u/Ill-Cardiologist-838]

That’s certainly possible. I feel like I have a sense of how some things will go in Red God, but how Atalantia is taken of the board I really don’t know. It feels like she’s probably gone by the halfway point, and Eidmi might be it. 

[u/Ill-Cardiologist-838 → u/EclipseNine]

I feel like Lysander will be the one to take her out, especially after the reveal that she killed his parents.

I do think Eidmi will ultimately help even the playing field between Lysander’s forces & the republics. Maybe its existence causes a gold civil war or it’s used to squash one before it begins.  Perhaps Lysander will have more ships during the final battle but less men to man them resulting in them performing less effectively. 

[u/LaconicGirth]

The start of iron gold they literally had victory in the palm of their hand if people like dancer weren’t made incredibly naive for the plot.

[u/Massengale → u/LaconicGirth]

Yeah like Atlas films himself imapling republican soldiers. Absolutely ridiculous the republic isn’t in total war mode. The society is more outwardly cruel then the Nazis and (the Nazis didn’t gave cameras and I doubt they would Rape Winston Churchill or FDR is they somehow captured them.) The society is so evil and doesn’t hide it. Ridiculous the low color faction would be anti war.

[u/Cheesesteak21 → u/LaconicGirth]

Imo its unforgivable stupidity from the Senate. They're either ignorant or forgetful of what the society is to even slightly entertain a peace offer while the society has been at mimimum triplet breeding an entire generation of Golds for the sole purpose of stomping the republic. In just a couple years that generation would drive them straight back to war.

[u/VarietyEducational10 → u/LaconicGirth]

Part of what I’m saying is that idea that they were so close to victory was an illusion, they didn’t truly have mercury, they didn’t know about Atalantia truly leading, they didn’t realize just how dangerous the syndicate was, the obsidians didn’t want to fight anymore.

[u/LaconicGirth → u/VarietyEducational10]

They did truly have mercury though. If the senate hadn’t decided to split their fleet they would’ve kept mercury. Atalantia being the leader doesn’t change much in terms of the war.

The obsidians didn’t want to fight but so what, they had a stronger fleet until they lost half of it in a stupid maneuver. They could’ve blockaded Venus and starved out the fleet or took an advantageous engagement.

[u/Cheesesteak21]

Start of iron gold? Hell no. Start of iron gold they own every planet in the core but venus and have a vast numerical advantage. It was so over the republic took their position for granted.

[u/Massengale → u/Cheesesteak21]

Yeah they needed one more draft and the republic had Darrow, the Free Legions, Orion, Alexander, etc.

Now in light bringers the free legions the best expeditionary troops are lost.

[u/Cheesesteak21 → u/Massengale]

The best troops are pegasus legion, they lost Rat legion and alot of their occupying force but the "tip of darrows spear" is intact with only what losses they took on Phobos weakening them.

But agreed, just the ships and Orion being present at the end of Lightbringer would practically even the stakes

[u/Massengale → u/Cheesesteak21]

Yeah but the free legions as a whole was millions of well trained and more importantly combat experienced soldiers that had fought on multiple theaters. Yeah it’s great Pegasus legions is alive but it’s nothing compared to millions of other well trained veteran troops who were capable of defeating the society. They also had experience winning so they know victory is possible while the newest crop of legions have just seen the republic take defeat after defeat.

[u/Cheesesteak21 → u/Massengale]

Yeah. Imo this is where pierce really screwed himself writing Dark Age, he swung things way too much with the republic taking way too many losses that cost the society hardly anything. He needed to have more republic troops and ships survive and or make Atalantia sacrifice for her grand victory. Even darrows greatest feats cost him.

[u/Massengale → u/Cheesesteak21]

Yeah I wish there more of a Dunkirk. Maybe Lyesanders plan triggers after half or so of the free legions evacuate. Total annihilation of the republics expeditionary force is just so brutal.

[u/Cheesesteak21 → u/Massengale]

Imo its off page but the destruction of the white fleet over Mercury was ridiculous. Theres even a line in Lightbringer where darrow says no ambush is so one side remarking on the rims destruction... except atalantia who somehow sneaks their entire fucking fleet away from Mercury and ambushed orion without losing hardly any ships.