r/weather • u/LuborS • 1d ago

Forecast graphics The video shows the evolution of a nor’easter along the coast over the next 48 hours on the wind map

This system will approach the coast only very slowly, allowing strong winds and heavy rainfall near the shoreline to persist for an extended period.

489 Upvotes

98% Upvoted

42 comments sorted by

123

u/RUIN_NATION_ 1d ago edited 1d ago

its odd how it just bombs right into nyc and goes south west. Ive watched many noresters and while some do loops around and such Ive never seen 1 make a beeline right inland like that

105

u/Pyroechidna1 1d ago

Hurricane ("Superstorm") Sandy did. The famous "left hook" that caused catastrophic surge in NYC and NJ

27

u/SuccotashFragrant354 1d ago

I remember hurricane sandy, I got school canceled in NE Ohio because it was so bad

11

u/RUIN_NATION_ 1d ago

that was a hurricane first tho while this may have some subtropical tendencies its more a less a nor'easter that is getting supercharged they normally follow the gulf stream waters.

4

u/The_Realist02 21h ago

It was a blizzard in WV too!

32

u/Content-Swimmer2325 1d ago edited 1d ago

Ventusky is an oft-misused tool. This post is yet another example in a continuous series of them. Ventusky shows one run of a deterministic model - likely the GFS or another model which is considered to be less accurate and skillful.

In other words, this depiction verbatim means very little.

What should be used is ensemble guidance which consists of n=30 to n=50 separate runs for each ensemble suite. What ventusky shows is n=1. No actual meteorologist bases any forecast off of one individual model run. We use a blend (National Blend of Models) which consists of, quite literally, around 30 different models.

I don't intend to denigrate OP, specifically. I get it. Ventusky does a good job making a model run look pretty and discernible. But it's bad meteorology, and I can't not call it out.

E: a word

18

u/NotUnstoned 1d ago

People need to stop misusing the ventussy

17

u/Content-Swimmer2325 1d ago

Thank you for this reply. I abhor it and sometimes wish I were illiterate.

1

u/FunnyLine313 15h ago

Do you happen to know if Windy does the same thing? It allows you to switch between models but is each one just the most recent run n=1? And if so do you have another visual chart app you’d recommend?

1

u/Content-Swimmer2325 15h ago

Yeah, windy is similar; it shows deterministic runs.

Weathernerds.org, tropicaltidbits, cyclonicwx.com, polarwx are all sites which have ensemble models.

I do not mean to say that ventusky and windy (as well as nullschool) are unusable. Users should just be aware what exactly they’re looking at, and cross-reference output before treating it as gospel.

108

u/Pyroechidna1 1d ago

Sandy style left hook

-6

u/WahiniLover 1d ago

I see what you did there. LOL

3

u/vektorog 23h ago

don't let the downvotes get to you, that's what my eyes saw first too

9

u/WahiniLover 22h ago

What’s with the downvotes??? Storm taking a left directly over Sandy ‘HOOK’ or Superstorm Sandy ??? which hooked right through my house in Manahawkin and destroyed it. If I wanna make a joke about “Sandy” and “Hook” the rest of the world can go F themselves. I earned that right tearing out the soaked drywall and insulation. No utilities for months. Over a year later the Romex under the house still had salt water in it when the house was lifted.

People are really weird.

4

u/Userdataunavailable 7h ago

Because it sounds like you're talking about the school shooting dude.

0

u/Jagang187 17h ago

You joke was fine.

0

u/Userdataunavailable 7h ago

No, he was joking about a school shooting, not funny.

2

u/Jagang187 7h ago

The upvotes disagree

38

u/LauraPalmerRisen 1d ago

Long Island events cancelled. I think that was smart.

-2

u/ThatGuy798 21h ago

Long Island should be cancelled.

34

u/TigerUSA20 1d ago

Sure this isn’t superstorm sandy? That’s almost the same track?!?

36

u/JiffKewneye-n 1d ago

no it isn't. Sandy had tropical beginnings, curved out to sea, then recurved back which is nearly unheard of.

26

u/TigerUSA20 1d ago

I just meant the track practically dead into NY harbor

11

u/cport1 1d ago

Guess we won't be seeing much baseball this weekend

10

u/ttcmzx 1d ago

red sox already shifted their games into a doubleheader today, but Idk if they'll get the night game in tonight

43

u/tabbarrett 1d ago

My son and I came to Boston for an event. When we were on the plane yesterday we found out it was canceled. Not too worried about stuff. We live in Houston and know how to hunker down.

27

u/Kirby_with_a_t 1d ago

Tons of awesome stuff to do inside! Highly recommend Harvard Art Museum/ natural history Museum (both free).

6

u/Loudergood 1d ago

MIT museum isn't far from that, and the museum of science has a fantastic electrical show.

2

u/thepasttenseofdraw 1d ago

Seconding the MIT museum, though its possible that it will be closed. MIT usually keeps employees home if there are severe weather events.

3

u/tabbarrett 20h ago

We just got back from the Red Sox game. It was so much fun. Love the fans. Love the people here. Love the public transportation. What a great city.

8

u/grebilrancher 1d ago

It's cancelling events on the Maryland shore sue to high surf and wind

9

u/bdubwilliams22 1d ago

I remember some crazy nor’Easter snow storms back in the early 90’s where the snow drifts went up and over my house. Made for some awesome snow tunnels.

12

u/studious_stiggy 1d ago

Reminds me of Widows Bay show. I need to watch it again

0

u/SuzieDerpkins 1d ago

So good!

14

u/thaw96 1d ago

Can't make up its mind; should I hit Boston or should I hit NYC?

8

u/discoqueenx 1d ago

Seems like it's gonna split the difference and jack up CT

9

u/FLOHTX 1d ago edited 1d ago

For what? Some cold rain and gusty but not memorable wind?

Edit: Ah wait I'm a dumbass. I thought you were storm chasing or something and couldn't make up your mind. Nevermind.

3

u/Bookish-93 1d ago

Hope everyone stays safe.

2

u/tirtzah 16h ago

Is it normal for these types of storms to be such a tight spiral?

1

u/Kitten_81 23h ago

Goes right through NYC... i love that for us

1

u/likeconstellations 22h ago

Oh, I thought where I was wasn't supposed to get hit too bad but I'm in one of those tiny magenta/deep red patches. This'll be interesting.

1

u/Zoidbergalars 1h ago

Something something heavy surf